Opinion polling for the next Japanese general election

In the run up to the Next Japanese general election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous general election, held on 27 October 2024, to the present day.

Party identification

2024

Fieldwork date Polling firm Sample size LDP CDP DPFP Ishin Komei Reiwa JCP DIY CPJ SDP Others No party Und./
no ans. 		Lead
20–22 Dec Nikkei/TV Tokyo 774 32 9 14 5 3 3 3 1 1 1 – 24 3 8
14–15 Dec Senkyo.com/JX 996 26.8 17.2 5.7 4.8 2.9 1.8 3.8 1 2.5 1.3 0.2[a] 31.9 – 5.1
14–15 Dec Asahi 1,049 24 9 11 4 3 2 2 1 1 0 1 35 7 11
14–15 Dec Sankei/FNN 1,020 28.1 9 11.3 3.2 2.4 2.8 3.5 0.7 0.5 0.6 – 36.9 1 8.8
14–15 Dec Mainichi/SSRC 2,045 20 11 13 5 2 4 2 – – – – 38 5 18
14–15 Dec Kyodo News 1,056 29.1 11.3 12.6 5 2.3 5 2.7 1.8 2.1 0.6 0.4[b] 22.5 4.6 6.6
13–15 Dec Yomiuri/NNN 1,018 24 8 12 4 5 3 2 – – – – 36 6 12
6–9 Dec Jiji Press 1,152 19.1 6.7 5.7 2.5 4.3 1.6 1.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 – 54.6 2.4 35.5
6–9 Dec NHK 1,224 28.7 8.7 7.9 3.4 2.5 1.6 2.7 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.1 35.6 6.7 6.9
7–8 Dec ANN 1,017 35.2 13.9 10.6 5.2 2.4 2.4 3.2 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.9 19.8 4.1 15.4
1 Dec Hirofumi Yoshimura and Seiji Maehara succeed Nobuyuki Baba as leaders of Ishin.[1]
30 Nov – 1 Dec JNN 1,003 28.2 8.5 8.8 4 3.3 2.9 2.2 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.6 35.6 4 7.4
23–24 Nov Mainichi/SSRC 1,919 21 12 13 5 3 4 2 1 2 1 – 38 – 17
16–17 Nov Kyodo News 1,021 30.5 15.1 9 4.4 3.9 6.9 2.5 2.5 1.6 0.3 0.2[c] 20.9 2.2 9.6
16–17 Nov Senkyo.com/JX 1,003 26.9 16.0 5.6 4.3 4.2 2.5 5.1 1.0 1.7 0.9 – 31.9 – 5.0
15–17 Nov NHK 1,213 30.1 11.4 7.4 3.6 3.8 1.4 2.4 1.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 31.6 6.1 1.5
15–17 Nov Nikkei/TV Tokyo 800 30 16 11 5 4 4 5 2 1 1 – 19 2 11
11–12 Nov Yomiuri/NNN 1,054 30 11 10 3 3 4 2 1 1 0 – 30 4 Tie
11 Nov The Second Ishiba Cabinet is formed.
8–11 Nov Jiji Press 1,190 20 7.5 5.5 2.6 4.1 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.8 0.3 – 52.7 3.3 32.7
9–10 Nov ANN 1,025 36.6 15.8 8.9 4.1 4.8 2.8 3.7 1 1.4 0.4 0.6 15.8 4.2 20.8
9 Nov Tetsuo Saito succeeds Keiichi Ishii as President of Komeito.[2]
2–3 Nov Asahi 980 26 13 10 2 3 3 2 1 1 0 – 29 10 3
2–3 Nov Sankei/FNN 1,012 25.8 13.7 10.1 5.3 3.7 2.8 3.5 3 1.6 0.4 – 28.3 1.8 2.5
1–2 Nov JNN 1,020 24.6 12.8 9.1 4.0 3.7 3.6 2.5 0.9 0.2 0.8 0.2 31.8 5.8 7.2
28–29 Oct Yomiuri/NNN 1,068 25 14 7 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 – 31 3 6
28–29 Oct Kyodo News 1,063 31.8 20.3 9.8 5.3 3.4 6.7 2.1 1.7 1.7 0.6 – 15 1.6 11.5
27 Oct Election results 53.84%[d] 26.7 21.2 11.3 9.4 10.9 7 6.2 3.4 2.1 1.7 – – – 5.5

Voting intention (party vote)

2024

Fieldwork date Polling firm Sample size LDP CDP DPFP Ishin Komei Reiwa JCP DIY CPJ SDP Others None/Und. No ans. Lead
14–15 Dec Senkyo.com/JX 996 23.8 22.7 10.3 9.1 4.5 2.7 5.3 1.5 2 1.5 1.3[e] 15.2 – 1.1
16–17 Nov Senkyo.com/JX 1,003 26.3 21.0 10.8 7.8 5.3 2.7 6.4 1.9 2.6 0.7 2.1[f] 12.5 – 5.3
27 Oct Election results 53.84%[d] 26.7 21.2 11.3 9.4 10.9 7 6.2 3.4 2.1 1.7 – – – 5.5

Preferred coalition

2024

Fieldwork date Polling firm Sample size LDP–Komei–led coalition CDP–led coalition[g] Other Und./
no ans.
13–15 Dec Yomiuri/NNN 1,018 41 41 – 18
15–17 Nov Nikkei/TV Tokyo 800 42[h] 13[i] 31[j] 14
11–12 Nov Yomiuri/NNN 1,054 44 37 – 19
8–11 Nov Jiji Press 1,190 40.7 32.7 – 26.6
9–10 Nov ANN 1,025 50 34 – 17
2–3 Nov Asahi 980 43 32 – 25
1–2 Nov JNN 1,020 44 41 – 15
28–29 Oct Yomiuri/NNN 1,068 43 40 – 17
28–29 Oct Kyodo News 1,063 37.4[k] 24.6 31.6[l] 6.4

Preferred prime minister

2024

Fieldwork date Polling firm Sample size Ishiba
LDP 		Noda
CDP 		Tamaki
DPFP 		Baba
Ishin 		Saito
Komei 		Yamamoto
Reiwa 		Tamura
JCP 		Others NOT/
UD/NA
9–10 Nov ANN 1,025 37 15 9 1 1 5 1 20 13
2–3 Nov Sankei/FNN 1,012 46.1 17.4 10.2 2.7 – – – – 23.6
1–2 Nov JNN 1,020 50 35 – – – – – – 15

Cabinet approval/disapproval ratings

Approval Polling for the Ishiba Cabinet.2024

Fieldwork date Polling firm Sample size Prime Minister Approve Disapprove Und. / no answer Lead
20–22 Dec Nikkei/TV Tokyo 774 Shigeru Ishiba 41 51 8 10
14–15 Dec Senkyo.com/JX 996 34.4[m] 35.9[n] 29.7 1.5
14–15 Dec Asahi 1,049 36 43 21 7
14–15 Dec Sankei/FNN 1,020 45.9 47.7 6.4 1.8
14–15 Dec Mainichi/SSRC 2,045 30 53 17 23
14–15 Dec Kyodo News 1,056 36.5 43.1 20.4 6.6
13–15 Dec Yomiuri/NNN 1,018 39 48 13 9
6–9 Dec Jiji Press 1,152 26.8 41.3 31.9 9.4
6–9 Dec NHK 1,224 37.7 38.3 24 0.6
7–8 Dec ANN 1,017 38.5 39.8 21.6 1.3
30 Nov – 1 Dec JNN 1,003 42.1 52.4 5.5 10.3
26 Nov – 2 Dec Morning Consult N/A 24.4 53.5 22.1 29.1
23–24 Nov Mainichi/SSRC 1,919 31 50 20 19
16–17 Nov Kyodo News 1,021 40 38.8 21.2 1.2
16–17 Nov Senkyo.com/JX 1,003 39.7[o] 29.9[p] 30.5 9.8
15–17 Nov NHK 1,213 40.8 37 22.2 3.8
15–17 Nov Nikkei/TV Tokyo 800 46 46 8 Tie
11–12 Nov Yomiuri/NNN 1,054 43 42 15 1
11 Nov The Second Ishiba Cabinet is formed.
8–11 Nov Jiji Press 1,190 Shigeru Ishiba 28.7 38.3 33 5.3
9–10 Nov ANN 1,025 38.3 37.3 24.4 1
29 Oct – 4 Nov Morning Consult N/A 23 53.4 23.6 29.8
2–3 Nov Asahi 980 34 47 19 13
2–3 Nov Sankei/FNN 1,012 43.8 49.8 6.4 6
1–2 Nov JNN 1,020 38.9 57.3 3.8 18.4
28–29 Oct Yomiuri/NNN 1,068 34 51 15 17
28–29 Oct Kyodo News 1,063 32.1 52.2 15.7 20.1

See also

Notes

  1. ^ The Collaborative Party: 0.2%
  2. ^ The Collaborative Party: 0.4%
  3. ^ The Collaborative Party: 0.2%
  4. ^ a b Election turnout.
  5. ^ The Collaborative Party: 0.3%; Others: 1.0%
  6. ^ The Collaborative Party: 0.7%; Others: 1.4%
  7. ^ Some polls refer it as "Opposition–led coalition".
  8. ^ "Opposition parties cooperating with the LDP–Komeito government on each policy basis": 42%
  9. ^ "A coalition government between the opposition parties": 13%
  10. ^ "A coalition government between the LDP–Komeito and opposition parties": 30%; Others: 1%
  11. ^ LDP–Komei coalition: 18.1%; LDP–Komei–Ishin coalition: 19.3%
  12. ^ "A new framework through political realignment": 31.5%; Others: 0.1%
  13. ^ Strongly approve: 10%; Approve on balance: 24.4%
  14. ^ Disapprove on balance: 15.9%; Completely disapprove: 20.0%
  15. ^ Strongly approve: 10%; Approve on balance: 29.7%
  16. ^ Disapprove on balance: 13.3%; Completely disapprove: 16.6%

References

  1. ^ "Osaka Gov. Yoshimura elected head of Japan's No. 2 opposition party". Kyodo News. 2024-12-01.
  2. ^ "Land minister Tetsuo Saito takes helm of Japan coalition partner Komeito". Kyodo News. 2024-11-09.

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