Next Serbian parliamentary election

Next Serbian parliamentary election
Serbia
← 2023 by 31 December 2027
All 250 seats in the National Assembly
126 seats needed for a majority
Parliamentary group Leader Current seats
AV–SNSDS Miloš Vučević 112
SPS–Zeleni Ivica Dačić 13
NADA Miloš Jovanović 13
NPS–NLS Miroslav Aleksić 12
SSP Marinika Tepić 12
ZLF Radomir Lazović 10
SRCE Zdravko Ponoš 9
DS Srđan Milivojević 8
ZS–RS–USS Miloljub Albijanić [sr] 6
MI–GIN Branko Pavlović 6
MI–SN Branimir Nestorović 6
PSG–SDAS–PDD Pavle Grbović 6
PUPS Milan Krkobabić 6
VMSZ Bálint Pásztor 6
SDPS Rasim Ljajić 6
JS Vacant 5
EU Aleksandar Jovanović 5
Sloga–D2SP Željko Veselinović 5
Independents 4
Incumbent Prime Minister
Miloš Vučević
SNS

Parliamentary elections will be held in Serbia by 31 December 2027 to elect members of the National Assembly.

The Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) came to power in 2012 after forming a government with Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS). In the 2023 parliamentary election, SNS regained its parliamentary majority. Due to the allegations of electoral fraud, protests were held after the election, with its organisers calling for the annulment of the results. In the aftermath of the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights report on the elections, the National Assembly formed a working body on improving election conditions. Miloš Vučević also became the prime minister of Serbia in May 2024.

Background

A populist coalition, led by the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), came to power after the 2012 election, along with the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS).[1][2] Aleksandar Vučić, who initially served as deputy prime minister of Serbia and later as prime minister of Serbia, was elected president of Serbia in 2017 and re-elected in 2022.[3][4] Since he came to power, observers have assessed that Serbia has suffered from democratic backsliding into authoritarianism, followed by a decline in media freedom and civil liberties.[5][6] The V-Dem Institute has categorised Serbia as an electoral autocracy since 2014, while Freedom House noted in 2024 that SNS "eroded political rights and civil liberties, put pressure on independent media, the opposition, and civil society organisations".[7][8][9]

On 17 December 2023, a snap parliamentary election was held in Serbia.[10] The election resulted in a victory of the SNS-led Serbia Must Not Stop electoral alliance that won a majority of seats in the National Assembly of Serbia. The second place was obtained by Serbia Against Violence (SPN), a broad coalition of opposition parties, that won 65 seats in total. The SPS electoral alliance, however, collapsed in popularity and only won 18 seats, its worst result since the 2007 parliamentary election.[11] Despite this, according to non-governmental and monitoring organisations, the election day was marked with electoral fraud and irregularities such as the Bulgarian train and vote buying.[12][13] After the election, protests were held up to 30 December, with its organisers, including SPN, calling for the results to be annulled.[14][15] Amidst the protests, a riot occurred after an unsuccessful attempt from opposition councillors to enter the building of the City Assembly of Belgrade.[16]

After several months of negotiations, SNS formed a new government on 2 May, with Miloš Vučević, the president of SNS, as prime minister.[17] In the aftermath of the Novi Sad railway station canopy collapse in November 2024, ministers Goran Vesić and Tomislav Momirović announced their resignation from office.[18][19] Their resignation was acknowledged by the National Assembly on 25 November.[20]

Electoral system

The 250 members of the National Assembly are elected by closed-list proportional representation from a single nationwide constituency.[21][22] Eligible voters vote for electoral lists, on which the candidates of the accepted lists are present. A maximum of 250 candidates could be present on a single electoral list. An electoral list could be submitted by a registered political party, a coalition of political parties, or a citizens' group.[22] To submit an electoral list, at least 10,000 valid signatures must be collected, though ethnic minority parties only need to collect 5,000 signatures to qualify on the ballot.[22][23] At least 40% of candidates on electoral lists must be female.[24] The electoral list is submitted by its chosen representative or representatives. An electoral list could be declined, after which those who had submitted can fix the deficiencies in a span of 48 hours, or rejected, if the person is not authorised to nominate candidates. The name and date of the election, names of the electoral lists and its representatives, and information on how to vote are only present on the voting ballot.[25]

The Republic Electoral Commission (RIK), local election commissions, and polling boards oversee the election.[25] Seats are allocated using the d'Hondt method with an electoral threshold of 3% of all votes cast, although the threshold is waived for ethnic minority parties.[21][26] The seats are distributed by dividing the total number of votes received by the electoral list participating in the distribution of seats by each number from one to 250. If two or more electoral lists receive the same quotients on the basis of which the seat is distributed, the electoral list that received the greater number of votes has priority.[25] Parliamentary seats are awarded to candidates from electoral lists according to their order, starting with the first candidate from an electoral list.[22]

A parliamentary election is called by the president of Serbia, who also has to announce its date and dissolve the National Assembly in the process.[22][25] To vote, a person has to be a citizen and resident of Serbia and at least 18 years old.[27] For those who live abroad, they are able to vote at diplomatic missions.[21] At least five days before the election, citizens are notified about the election; citizens receive information about the day and time of the election and the address of the polling station where they can vote.[22] Election silence begins two days before the voting day, and it lasts until the closure of all polling stations.[28] During the election day, eligible voters could vote from 07:00 (UTC+01:00) to 20:00, though if the polling station is opened later than 07:00, voting is then extended by the amount of time for which the opening of the polling station was delayed.[25][29] Voters who are not able to vote at polling stations due to being sick, old, or invalid have to inform their election commission before 11:00 so that they could vote on the election day from their home between after 11:00.[29]

Election date

By law, the next parliamentary election should take place by 31 December 2027.[27] The election could be scheduled earlier.[30] Vučić announced in 2024 that the next parliamentary election and presidential election would be held on the same date in 2027, thus making it a general election.[31] Vučević also echoed that elections would not be held prior 2027.[32] However, Darko Glišić, the president of the executive board of SNS, said that there could still be a possibility of holding elections earlier despite the government's plan being to complete the entire four-year mandate.[33][34] Political analyst Dragomir Anđelković argued that the next parliamentary election would be only held after the completion of the Expo 2027 fair and the expansion of the Belgrade Waterfront project.[35]

Election conditions

After the election protests, the European Parliament adopted a resolution regarding the election in February 2024, calling for it to be internationally investigated.[36] The Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) also published a report on elections, concluding that it was marked with numerous irregularities and the abuse of public institutions.[37] In response to ODIHR's recommendation of initiating further changes to improve election conditions, the National Assembly of Serbia formed a working body on improving election conditions in April 2024.[38] At its first session, Nemanja Nenadić, the director of Transparency Serbia, was elected its chairman.[39] Nenadić announced that the proposed changes would have to be voted by the National Assembly by July 2025.[40]

In response to the 2024 Belgrade City Assembly election, ODIHR published another report in which it concluded that the election was again marked by irregularities.[41] ODIHR representatives further met with minister Jelena Žarić Kovačević and RIK representatives in September 2024.[42][43]

Political parties

See also: List of political parties in Serbia

The table below lists political parties and coalitions elected to the National Assembly after the 2023 parliamentary election.[44] The final results were published on 3 January 2024.[45]

Name Ideology Political position Leader(s) 2023 result
Votes (%) Seats
Serbia Must Not Stop Populism Big tent Miloš Vučević 48.07%
129 / 250
Serbia Against Violence Anti-corruption Big tent Marinika Tepić
Miroslav Aleksić 		24.32%
65 / 250
SPS–JS–Zeleni Populism Big tent Ivica Dačić 6.73%
18 / 250
National Democratic Alternative National conservatism Right-wing Miloš Jovanović 5.16%
13 / 250
We – Voice from the People Right-wing populism Right-wing Collective leadership 4.82%
13 / 250
Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians Minority politics Bálint Pásztor 1.74%
6 / 250
SPP–DSHV Usame Zukorlić 0.78%
2 / 250
SDA Sandžak Sulejman Ugljanin 0.59%
2 / 250
Political Battle of the Albanians Continues Shaip Kamberi 0.36%
1 / 250
RS–NKPJ Slobodan Nikolić 0.31%
1 / 250
Source: Republic Bureau of Statistics[44]

Current composition

Further information: 14th National Assembly of Serbia

The fourteenth convocation of the National Assembly held its constitutive session on 6 February 2024, at which the parliamentary composition was formalised.[46] Ana Brnabić of SNS was elected president of the National Assembly on 19 March, while Sandra Božić (SNS), Marina Raguš (SNS), Snežana Paunović (SPS), Elvira Kovács (Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians, VMSZ), Edin Đerlek (Justice and Reconciliation Party, SPP), and Jovan Janjić (We – Voice from the People, MI–GIN) were elected vice-presidents.[47]

Current parliamentary composition[48]
Groups Parties MPs
Seats Total
Aleksandar Vučić – Serbia Must Not Stop SNS 105 112
PS 2
SPO 2
SNP 1
NSS 1
SSD 1
Ivica Dačić – Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) SPS 12 13
Zeleni 1
New DSS – POKS (NADA) NDSS 7 13
POKS 6
People's Movement of Serbia – New Face of Serbia NPS 10 12
NLS 2
Party of Freedom and Justice SSP 12 12
Green–Left Front – Do not let Belgrade drown ZLF 10 10
Serbia Centre – SRCE SRCE 9 9
Democratic Party – DS DS 8 8
Healthy Serbia – Russian Party – United Peasant Party ZS 3 6
SNP 1
USS 1
RS 1
We – Voice from the People MI–GIN 6 6
We – Power of the People prof dr Branimir Nestorović MI–SN 6 6
PSG–SDA of Sandžak–PDD PSG 3 6
SDAS 2
PVD/PDD 1
PUPS – Solidarity and Justice PUPS 6 6
Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians VMSZ/SVM 6 6
Social Democratic Party of Serbia SDPS 6 6
Dragan Marković Palma – United Serbia JS 5 5
Ecological Uprising EU 5 5
Movement Sloga – Experts Should Have A Say USS Sloga 1 5
Nova–D2SP 1
Ind. 3
MPs not members of parliamentary groups SPP 2 4
Ind. 2

Pre-election activities

Government parties

Following the 2023 elections, Vučević announced that the idea of the People's Movement for the State (NPZD) would continue to be discussed for the next parliamentary election.[49] SNS formed a joint alliance, named Belgrade Tomorrow, in April 2024 for the June 2024 Belgrade City Assembly election; in addition to its partners, the list also included the SPS, Serbian Party Oathkeepers (SSZ), Serbian Radical Party, and Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians.[50] Vučević said that with the formation of the list, NPZD was also effectively formalised.[51] Journalist Zoran Panović agreed, and noted that it was done despite not having an official announcement.[52]

Radoslav Milojičić, the president of the Serbian Left, switched his affiliation to SNS in June 2024.[53] Dragan Marković, the president of United Serbia and its parliamentary group, died on 22 November.[54]

Opposition parties

A rift between the Party of Freedom and Justice (SSP) and Movement of Free Citizens (PSG) occurred in the National Assembly in March 2024. All three PSG MPs decided to leave the SSP–PSG parliamentary group and to continue as MPs without a parliamentary group.[55] SSP remained in the charge of their parliamentary group.[56] In October 2024, Željko Veselinović and Đorđe Đorđić left the SSP parliamentary group.[57] They were followed by Sonja Pernat and Irena Živković on 19 November.[58] Three days later, they formed the Movement Sloga – Experts Should Have A Say parliamentary group.[59] Veselinović announced the formation of the Workers' Party before 2025.[58]

SPN ceased to exist in April 2024 due to a dispute between its parties on whether to boycott the 2024 Belgrade City Assembly election.[60] SSP, Serbia Centre, and Together opted to boycott the election, while the rest of SPN parties took part under the We Choose Belgrade banner.[61] The We – Voice from the People also suffered a split in 2024, with Branimir Nestorović and his allies forming the We – Power of the People.[62]

Opinion polls

Opinion polling for Serbian parliamentary elections has been conducted by various monitoring and research organisations. Analyst Dejan Bursać of the Institute for Political Studies argued that the rating SNS received in opinion polls mostly came from Vučić's popularity, citing the high trust in the office of president of Serbia in opinion polls and voters perception of Vučić still being the president of the party. Bojan Vranić, a professor at the Faculty of Political Sciences of University of Belgrade, criticised the lack of turnout numbers in opinion polls and the presentation of party ratings.[63]

2024

Polling firm Date of publication Sample size SNS–led
coalition 		SPS–JS SSP NPS ZLF SRCE NADA KP MI–SN Others Lead
NDSS POKS
Faktor Plus[64] 27 September 2,000 54.0 8.9 8.0 4.6 2.7 2.5 4.3 – 5.4 4.6 5.0[a] 39.1
2023 election 17 December – 48.1 6.7 24.3 5.2 – – 22.4 23.8

Notes

  1. ^ Others: 5.0%, Undecided (excluded): 13.3%

References

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  58. ^ a b Bečki, Anika (19 November 2024). "Poslanice koje su napustile poslanički klub SSP: Nismo smele da izrazimo drugačije mišljenje, do kraja godine formiramo stranku" [Female deputies who left the SSP parliamentary group: We were not allowed to express a different opinion, we are forming a party by the end of the year]. NOVA portal (in Serbian). Retrieved 21 November 2024.
  59. ^ "Zvanično formirana poslanička grupa Pokret radnika Sloga - Da se struka pita" [The Movement Sloga – Experts Should Have A Say parliamentary group is officially founded]. Novinska agencija Beta (in Serbian). 22 November 2024. Retrieved 23 November 2024.
  60. ^ Ranković, Rade (22 April 2024). "Raspad koalicije "Srbija protiv nasilja", deo opozicije izlazi na izbore na listi "Biram borbu!"" [The collapse of the "Serbia Against Violence" coalition, part of the opposition is going to the elections on the list "I Choose Struggle!"]. Voice of America (in Serbian). Retrieved 22 June 2024.
  61. ^ Cvetković, Ljudmila (3 June 2024). "Ko izlazi na beogradske izbore?" [Who is participating in the Belgrade elections?]. Radio Free Europe (in Serbian). Archived from the original on 12 June 2024. Retrieved 21 June 2024.
  62. ^ Stevanović, L. (27 March 2024). "Pokret Branimira Nestorovića od danas je "Mi snaga naroda"" [Branimir Nestorović's movement is from today "We Power of the People"]. Danas (in Serbian). Retrieved 23 June 2024.
  63. ^ Ilić, Mladen (1 October 2024). "Šta nam govori poslednje istraživanje rejtinga stranaka?" [What does the latest party rating survey tell us?]. Danas (in Serbian). Retrieved 5 October 2024.
  64. ^ "Ekskluzivno Ovo su najnoviji rejtinzi političkih stranaka u Srbiji" [Exclusive These are the latest ratings of political parties in Serbia]. Blic (in Serbian). 27 September 2024. Retrieved 28 September 2024.

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