Next Bangladeshi general election

Next Bangladeshi general election

← 2024 TBA[a]

All 300 directly elected seats in the Jatiya Sangsad
151 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Sheikh Hasina at Hyderabad House, New Delhi on June 22, 2024 (cropped).jpg
GM Quader 2023.png
Khaleda_Zia_Poses_for_a_Photo_with_Secretary_Kerry_at_U.S._Embassy_Dhaka_(29284522026)_(cropped).jpg
Leader Sheikh Hasina GM Quader Khaleda Zia
Party AL JP(E) BNP
Alliance GA
Leader since 16 February 1981 8 February 2018 10 May 1984
Last election 224 11 Boycotted
Seats needed Steady Increase 140 Increase 151

 
Syed Muhammad Rezaul Karim (2019).jpg
Shafiqur Rahman.jpg
Leader Rezaul Karim Shafiqur Rahman
Party IAB Jamaat-e-Islami
Leader since 25 November 2006 12 November 2019
Last election Boycotted Deregistered
Seats needed Increase 151 Increase 151

Constituency map

Incumbent Chief Advise

Muhammad Yunus
Independent (interim)



General elections are expected to take place in Bangladesh following the overthrow of the government of Sheikh Hasina by student-led protests in 2024. A constituent assembly election will take place before the general elections,[1] The interim government led by Muhammad Yunus has established a Constitutional Reform Commission for this purpose.

Schedule

Poll Event Schedule
Declaration of the schedule TBA
Application deadline for candidates TBA
Scrutiny of nomination TBA
Last Date for Withdrawal of nomination TBA
Symbol allocation TBA
Start of campaign period TBA
End of campaign period TBA
Date of Poll TBA
Date of Counting of Votes TBA
Date of reserved seats Poll TBA

Background

The 12th Sangsad was dissolved by President Mohammed Shahabuddin following the resignation of Sheikh Hasina.[2] In June 2024, student protests erupted throughout the country, demanding the reform of quotas in government jobs. The protests were met with brutal crackdown by law-enforcement agencies and paramilitary forces, resulting in the deaths of many students. By August, the protests intensified into large-scale civil unrest against the government which eventually culminated in Hasina's resignation on 5 August.

Following negotiations between student leaders and the Armed Forces, Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus was appointed as Chief Adviser to head an interim government with a view to leading the country to new elections.[3]

The Awami League won the January 2024 general elections following a record low voter turnout and a controversial election, spite of which they formed a government.[4] The United States Department of State, in a statement, said that the election was not free and fair[5] and the UK's Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office termed the election lacking the preconditions of democracy.[6] According to The Economist, through this election, "Bangladesh effectively became a one-party state".[7]

The main opposition party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), demanded that the government hand over power to a neutral caretaker government before the January 2024 elections.[8] This was rejected by Hasina, who vowed that "Bangladesh will never allow an unelected government again".[9] Hasina's resistance to a caretaker government arose following the 2006–2008 crisis, during which a caretaker government assumed military control of the country and arrested a number of political leaders, including Hasina and Khaleda Zia. [10] Zia was sentenced to prison for five years on February 8, 2018, for her involvement in the Zia Orphanage corruption case.[11] The sentence was then modified to 10 years.[12] Zia’s successor as chair of the party, her son Tarique Rahman, was also found guilty of criminal conspiracy and multiple counts of murder for a grenade attack in 2004 that injured Hasina and killed 24 people.[13] He was sentenced to life in prison. As such, he was barred from running for office.[14] Zia was released by the President of Bangladesh following Hasina's resignation.[15]

Electoral system

The 350 members of the Jatiya Sangsad consist of 300 directly elected seats using first-past-the-post voting (FPTP) in single-member constituencies, and an additional 50 seats reserved for women. The reserved seats are elected proportionally by the elected members. Each parliament sits for a five-year term.[16] The electoral system has been criticised as disproportional[17][18][19] and a key driver of political deadlock in the country.[19] Some of the leading minor parties, including Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami, Islami Andolan Bangladesh, Communist Party of Bangladesh, Gono Odhikar Parishad, Amar Bangladesh Party etc., had been in staunch opposition to the system and in support of proportional representation (PR), where Bangladesh Nationalist Party remains a supporter of FPTP.[20][21][22][23]

Parties and alliances

Alliance/Party Flag Leader Seats Contested Seats Contested under Alliance
GA AL Sheikh Hasina
JaSaD Hasanul Haque Inu
WPB Rashed Khan Menon
GP Arosh Ali
JP(M) Anwar Hossain Manju
BTF Syed Najibul Bashar Maizbhandari
BSD-ML Dilip Barua
JF BKP Syed Muhammad Ibrahim
BJP(M) Mohammed Abdul Muqit
BML(B) Sheikh Zulfiqar Bulbul Chowdhury
LDA CPB 100×100px Shah Alam
BaSaD Bazlur Rashid Firoz
RCLB Mosharraf Hossain Nannu
BaSaD–M Mubinul Haider Chowdhury
GM JSD(R) A.S.M. Abdur Rab
RWPB Saiful Haq
GSA 50×50px Zonayed Saki
JP(E) GM Quader
BNP Khaleda Zia
Jamaat Shafiqur Rahman -
IAB Rezaul Karim
BJP Andaleeve Rahman
LDP Oli Ahmed
ZP Mustafa Amir Faisal
TBNP Shamsher Mobin Chowdhury
BKSJL Kader Siddique
BDB Bikalpadhara Bangladesh A. Q. M. Badruddoza Chowdhury
GF Kamal Hossain
ABP Abdul Wohab
GOP Nurul Haq Nur

Surveys and polls

Opinion polls

Vote share projections
Polling agency Date published Sample size Margin of error AL JP(E) BNP IAB Jamaat Student supported–New Party Others Independents None "Can't say"/Undecided Lead
Bangladesh Speaks September 2024 5,115 (field) ± 1.4% 5% 1% 21% 3% 14% 10% 1% 3% 2% 38% 7%
3,581 (online) ± 1.67% 10% 0% 10% 1% 25% 35% 1% 3% 3% 11% 10%
Average 7.5% 0.5% 15.5% 2% 19.5% 22.5% 1% 3% 2.5% 24.5% 3%
Seat projections
Polling agency Date published Sample size Margin of error AL JP(E) BNP IAB Jamaat Others Lead

Exit polls

Vote share projections
Polling agency Date published Sample size Margin of error AL JP(E) BNP IAB Jamaat Others Lead
Seat projections
Polling agency Date published Sample size Margin of error AL JP(E) BNP IAB Jamaat Others Lead

Results

Party
Awami League
Jatiya Party (Ershad)
Bangladesh Nationalist Party
Islami Andolan Bangladesh
Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami
Other parties
Independents
Total

Division wise

Next Bangladeshi general election (13th Jatiya Sangsad) : Rangpur Division
Party Seats Votes
Contested Won +/– In total Average
% +/–pp
AL
JP(E)
BNP
IAB
Jamaat-e-Islami
Others
IND
Total
Valid Votes
Invalid Votes
Total Votes Cast
Registered/Turnout
Source:
Next Bangladeshi general election (13th Jatiya Sangsad) : Rajshahi Division
Party Seats Votes
Contested Won +/– In total Average
% +/–pp
AL
JP(E)
BNP
IAB
Jamaat-e-Islami
Others
IND
Total
Valid Votes
Invalid Votes
Total Votes Cast
Registered/Turnout
Source:
Next Bangladeshi general election (13th Jatiya Sangsad) : Khulna Division
Party Seats Votes
Contested Won +/– In total Average
% +/–pp
AL
JP(E)
BNP
IAB
Jamaat-e-Islami
Others
IND
Total
Valid Votes
Invalid Votes
Total Votes Cast
Registered/Turnout
Source:
Next Bangladeshi general election (13th Jatiya Sangsad) : Barishal Division
Party Seats Votes
Contested Won +/– In total Average
% +/–pp
AL
JP(E)
BNP
IAB
Jamaat-e-Islami
Others
IND
Total
Valid Votes
Invalid Votes
Total Votes Cast
Registered/Turnout
Source:
Next Bangladeshi general election (13th Jatiya Sangsad) : Mymensingh Division
Party Seats Votes
Contested Won +/– In total Average
% +/–pp
AL
JP(E)
BNP
IAB
Jamaat-e-Islami
Others
IND
Total
Valid Votes
Invalid Votes
Total Votes Cast
Registered/Turnout
Source:
Next Bangladeshi general election (13th Jatiya Sangsad) : Dhaka Division
Party Seats Votes
Contested Won +/– In total Average
% +/–pp
AL
JP(E)
BNP
IAB
Jamaat-e-Islami
Others
IND
Total
Valid Votes
Invalid Votes
Total Votes Cast
Registered/Turnout
Source:
Next Bangladeshi general election (13th Jatiya Sangsad) : Sylhet Division
Party Seats Votes
Contested Won +/– In total Average
% +/–pp
AL
JP(E)
BNP
IAB
Jamaat-e-Islami
Others
IND
Total
Valid Votes
Invalid Votes
Total Votes Cast
Registered/Turnout
Source:
Next Bangladeshi general election (13th Jatiya Sangsad) : Chattogram Division
Party Seats Votes
Contested Won +/– In total Average
% +/–pp
AL
JP(E)
BNP
IAB
Jamaat-e-Islami
Others
IND
Total
Valid Votes
Invalid Votes
Total Votes Cast
Registered/Turnout
Source:

Constituency-wise

Parliamentary Constituency Winner Runner Up Margin Turnout
No. Division Name Total Voters Candidate Party Votes % Candidate Party Votes %
1 Rangpur Division Panchagarh-1
2 Panchagarh-2
3 Thakurgaon-1
4 Thakurgaon-2
5 Thakurgaon-3
6 Dinajpur-1
7 Dinajpur-2
8 Dinajpur-3
9 Dinajpur-4
10 Dinajpur-5
11 Dinajpur-6
12 Nilphamari-1
13 Nilphamari-2
14 Nilphamari-3
15 Nilphamari-4
16 Lalmonirhat-1
17 Lalmonirhat-2
18 Lalmonirhat-3
19 Rangpur-1
20 Rangpur-2
21 Rangpur-3
22 Rangpur-4
23 Rangpur-5
24 Rangpur-6
25 Kurigram-1
26 Kurigram-2
27 Kurigram-3
28 Kurigram-4
29 Gaibandha-1
30 Gaibandha-2
31 Gaibandha-3
32 Gaibandha-4
33 Gaibandha-5
34 Rajshahi Division Joypurhat-1
35 Joypurhat-2
36 Bogra-1
37 Bogra-2
38 Bogra-3
39 Bogra-4
40 Bogra-5
41 Bogra-6
42 Bogra-7
43 Chapainawabganj-1
44 Chapainawabganj-2
45 Chapainawabganj-3
46 Naogaon-1
47 Naogaon-2
48 Naogaon-3
49 Naogaon-4
50 Naogaon-5
51 Naogaon-6
52 Rajshahi-1
53 Rajshahi-2
54 Rajshahi-3
55 Rajshahi-4
56 Rajshahi-5
57 Rajshahi-6
58 Natore-1
59 Natore-2
60 Natore-3
61 Natore-4
62 Sirajganj-1
63 Sirajganj-2
64 Sirajganj-3
65 Sirajganj-4
66 Sirajganj-5
67 Sirajganj-6
68 Pabna-1
69 Pabna-2
70 Pabna-3
71 Pabna-4
72 Pabna-5
73 Khulna Division Meherpur-1
74 Meherpur-2
75 Kushtia-1
76 Kushtia-2
77 Kushtia-3
78 Kushtia-4
79 Chuadanga-1
80 Chuadanga-2
81 Jhenaidah-1
82 Jhenaidah-2
83 Jhenaidah-3
84 Jhenaidah-4
85 Magura-1
86 Magura-2
87 Narail-1
88 Narail-2
89 Jessore-1
90 Jessore-2
91 Jessore-3
92 Jessore-4
93 Jessore-5
94 Jessore-6
95 Bagerhat-1
96 Bagerhat-2
97 Bagerhat-3
98 Bagerhat-4
99 Khulna-1
100 Khulna-2
101 Khulna-3
102 Khulna-4
103 Khulna-5
104 Khulna-6
105 Satkhira-1
106 Satkhira-2
107 Satkhira-3
108 Satkhira-4
109 Barishal Division Barguna-1
110 Barguna-2
111 Patuakhali-1
112 Patuakhali-2
113 Patuakhali-3
114 Patuakhali-4
115 Bhola-1
116 Bhola-2
117 Bhola-3
118 Bhola-4
119 Barisal-1
120 Barisal-2
121 Barisal-3
122 Barisal-4
123 Barisal-5
124 Barisal-6
125 Jhalokati-1
126 Jhalokati-2
127 Pirojpur-1
128 Pirojpur-2
129 Pirojpur-3
130 Mymensingh Division Jamalpur-1
131 Jamalpur-2
132 Jamalpur-3
133 Jamalpur-4
134 Jamalpur-5
135 Sherpur-1
136 Sherpur-2
137 Sherpur-3
138 Mymensingh-1
139 Mymensingh-2
140 Mymensingh-3
141 Mymensingh-4
142 Mymensingh-5
143 Mymensingh-6
144 Mymensingh-7
145 Mymensingh-8
146 Mymensingh-9
147 Mymensingh-10
148 Mymensingh-11
149 Netrokona-1
150 Netrokona-2
151 Netrokona-3
152 Netrokona-4
153 Netrokona-5
154 Dhaka Division Tangail-1
155 Tangail-2
156 Tangail-3
157 Tangail-4
158 Tangail-5
159 Tangail-6
160 Tangail-7
161 Tangail-8
162 Kishoreganj-1
163 Kishoreganj-2
164 Kishoreganj-3
165 Kishoreganj-4
166 Kishoreganj-5
167 Kishoreganj-6
168 Manikganj-1
169 Manikganj-2
170 Manikganj-3
171 Munshiganj-1
172 Munshiganj-2
173 Munshiganj-3
174 Dhaka-1
175 Dhaka-2
176 Dhaka-3
177 Dhaka-4
178 Dhaka-5
179 Dhaka-6
180 Dhaka-7
181 Dhaka-8
182 Dhaka-9
183 Dhaka-10
184 Dhaka-11
185 Dhaka-12
186 Dhaka-13
187 Dhaka-14
188 Dhaka-15
189 Dhaka-16
190 Dhaka-17
191 Dhaka-18
192 Dhaka-19
193 Dhaka-20
194 Gazipur-1
195 Gazipur-2
196 Gazipur-3
197 Gazipur-4
198 Gazipur-5
199 Narsingdi-1
200 Narsingdi-2
201 Narsingdi-3
202 Narsingdi-4
203 Narsingdi-5
204 Narayanganj-1
205 Narayanganj-2
206 Narayanganj-3
207 Narayanganj-4
208 Narayanganj-5
209 Rajbari-1
210 Rajbari-2
211 Faridpur-1
212 Faridpur-2
213 Faridpur-3
214 Faridpur-4
215 Gopalganj-1
216 Gopalganj-2
217 Gopalganj-3
218 Madaripur-1
219 Madaripur-2
220 Madaripur-3
221 Shariatpur-1
222 Shariatpur-2
223 Shariatpur-3
224 Sylhet Division Sunamganj-1
225 Sunamganj-2
226 Sunamganj-3
227 Sunamganj-4
228 Sunamganj-5
229 Sylhet-1
230 Sylhet-2
231 Sylhet-3
232 Sylhet-4
233 Sylhet-5
234 Sylhet-6
235 Moulvibazar-1
236 Moulvibazar-2
237 Moulvibazar-3
238 Moulvibazar-4
239 Habiganj-1
240 Habiganj-2
241 Habiganj-3
242 Habiganj-4
243 Chattogram Division Brahmanbaria-1
244 Brahmanbaria-2
245 Brahmanbaria-3
246 Brahmanbaria-4
247 Brahmanbaria-5
248 Brahmanbaria-6
249 Comilla-1
250 Comilla-2
251 Comilla-3
252 Comilla-4
253 Comilla-5
254 Comilla-6
255 Comilla-7
256 Comilla-8
257 Comilla-9
258 Comilla-10
259 Comilla-11
260 Chandpur-1
261 Chandpur-2
262 Chandpur-3
263 Chandpur-4
264 Chandpur-5
265 Feni-1
266 Feni-2
267 Feni-3
268 Noakhali-1
269 Noakhali-2
270 Noakhali-3
271 Noakhali-4
272 Noakhali-5
273 Noakhali-6
274 Lakshmipur-1
275 Lakshmipur-2
276 Lakshmipur-3
277 Lakshmipur-4
278 Chittagong-1
279 Chittagong-2
280 Chittagong-3
281 Chittagong-4
282 Chittagong-5
283 Chittagong-6
284 Chittagong-7
285 Chittagong-8
286 Chittagong-9
287 Chittagong-10
288 Chittagong-11
289 Chittagong-12
290 Chittagong-13
291 Chittagong-14
292 Chittagong-15
293 Chittagong-16
294 Cox's Bazar-1
295 Cox's Bazar-2
296 Cox's Bazar-3
297 Cox's Bazar-4
298 Khagrachhari
299 Rangamati
300 Bandarban

See also

Notes

  1. ^ It is likely to take place between 2025 and 2026.

References

  1. ^ "Constituent assembly to be convened for charter reform: Nahid". Archived from the original on September 24, 2024.
  2. ^ "Bangladesh Parliament dissolved, president's office says". Reuters. 6 August 2024. Retrieved 9 August 2024.
  3. ^ "Who is Muhammad Yunus, the Nobel laureate leader of Bangladesh's interim government?". CNN. 9 August 2024. Retrieved 7 August 2024.
  4. ^ "Sheikh Hasina wins fifth term in Bangladesh amid turnout controversy". Al Jazeera. 4 January 2024. Retrieved 9 August 2024.
  5. ^ "Bangladesh Election 'Not Free Or Fair': US". Barron's. Archived from the original on 8 January 2024. Retrieved 9 January 2024.
  6. ^ "UK Says Boycotted Bangladesh Poll Not 'Democratic'". Barron's. Agence France-Presse. Archived from the original on 10 January 2024. Retrieved 9 January 2024.
  7. ^ "Bangladesh is now in effect a one-party state". The Economist. ISSN 0013-0613. Archived from the original on 9 January 2024. Retrieved 9 January 2024.
  8. ^ Kamruzzaman, Md. (January 17, 2023). "Bangladesh's main opposition party demands formation of caretaker government ahead of polls". Anadolu Agency. Retrieved 20 April 2024.
  9. ^ "Bangladesh will never allow an unelected government again, says Hasina". BDNews24. February 10, 2023. Retrieved 20 April 2023.
  10. ^ "Former Bangladesh Prime Minister Arrested". NPR. 16 July 2007.
  11. ^ "Minister: Khaleda Zia's release will be revoked if she participates in politics". Dhaka Tribune. June 11, 2023.
  12. ^ "Zia Orphanage Graft Case: Khaleda's jail term raised to 10 years". The Daily Star. October 31, 2018.
  13. ^ "Tarique Rahman acting chairman: BNP leader". The Daily Star. February 8, 2018.
  14. ^ "Adequate data found to try Jamaat for war crimes". Bangladesh Post. June 11, 2023.
  15. ^ "Who is Khaleda Zia, Sheikh Hasina's rival and former Bangladesh PM who was on 'deathbed' a few months ago". The Economic Times. 6 August 2024. Retrieved 9 August 2024.
  16. ^ "IPU Parline database: Bangladesh (Jatiya Sangsad), Electoral system". Inter-Parliamentary Union. Retrieved 18 April 2021.
  17. ^ Katherine L. Ekstrand, No Matter Who Draws the Lines: A Comparative Analysis of the Utility of Independent Redistricting Commissions in First-Past-the-Post Democracies, 45 GJICL (2016).
  18. ^ "4: Persistent Factionalism: Bangladesh, Bolivia, Zimbabwe", Democratization and the Mischief of Faction, Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1 July 2018, pp. 85–112, doi:10.1515/9781626377363-006, ISBN 978-1-62637-736-3, retrieved 7 October 2024
  19. ^ a b "Women's Reserved Seats in Bangladesh: A Systemic Analysis of Meaningful Representation". International Foundation for Electoral Systems. June 2016. Retrieved 7 October 2024.
  20. ^ প্রধান উপদেষ্টার সঙ্গে পীর সাহেব চরমোনাই'র নেতৃত্বে ৬ সদস্যের প্রতিনিধি দলের সংলাপ. Islami Andolan Bangladesh. 5 October 2024.
  21. ^ "পিআর নির্বাচন পদ্ধতি কী? প্রচলিত ব্যবস্থার সঙ্গে পার্থক্য কোথায়". Jugantor. 20 October 2024.
  22. ^ "সংখ্যানুপাতিক নির্বাচন পদ্ধতি কী, কীভাবে হতে পারে বাস্তবায়ন". www.banglanews24.com. 16 October 2024.
  23. ^ বাশার, খাইরুল (24 October 2024). "কেমন হবে যদি নির্বাচন হয় সংখ্যানুপাতিক পদ্ধতিতে". Shokal Shondha.