Next Senedd election

Next Senedd election
← 2021 On or before 7 May 2026
All 96 seats to the Senedd
49 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Eluned Morgan Darren Millar
Party Labour Conservative
Leader since 24 July 2024 5 December 2024
Leader's seat Mid and West Wales Clwyd West
Current seats 30 (out of 60) 16 (out of 60)
Seats needed Increase19 Increase33
 
Leader Rhun ap Iorwerth Jane Dodds
Party Plaid Cymru Liberal Democrats
Leader since 16 June 2023 3 November 2017
Leader's seat Ynys Môn Mid and West Wales
Current seats 12 (out of 60) 1 (out of 60)
Seats needed Increase37 Increase48
Incumbent First Minister

Eluned Morgan
Labour



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Referendums

Represented in the Senedd

The next Senedd election is due to be held by 7 May 2026[1] to elect 96 members to the Senedd (Welsh Parliament; Welsh: Senedd Cymru). It will be the seventh devolved general election since the Senedd (formerly the National Assembly for Wales) was established in 1999. If held in 2026 it will also be the first election following current reforms to the voting system, which would increase the size of the Senedd from 60 members to 96, adopting a party-list voting system, reducing the number of constituencies to sixteen, and shortening its term from five years to four.[2][3] It will also be the second election since the Senedd changed its name in May 2020.

Retiring members

The following MSs have announced their intention not run for re-election:

MS Constituency/Region First elected Party Date announced
Mark Drakeford Cardiff West 2011 Welsh Labour 9 August 2023[4]
Vaughan Gething Cardiff South and Penarth 2011 Welsh Labour 7 September 2024[5]
Lee Waters Llanelli 2016 Welsh Labour 24 October 2024[6]

Electoral system

See also: Senedd constituencies and electoral regions

In all prior elections since its establishment as the Welsh Assembly in 1999, the Senedd has been elected through the additional member system, under which 40 out of 60 seats were elected by the first past the post system from single-member constituencies (the same as those used for Westminster), while the remaining 20 were attributed regionally (in 5 regions of 4 seats) on the basis of a second vote for a closed party list of candidates. The additional member seats in each region were allocated from the lists by the D'Hondt method, with constituency results being taken into account in the allocation.

Following the approval of the Senedd Reform Act, the size of the Senedd will be increased from 60 to 96 MSs, all elected through closed party list proportional representation (using the D'Hondt method). The elections will be organised in 16 six-member constituencies created by pairing up the 32 redrawn Westminster constituencies.[7][8]

Although the new system would only be ready and used for elections held after 6 April 2026, to allow time for the new constituencies to be drawn up.[9] The next election is due to be held on 7 May 2026.[10]

Another proposed reform bill would have provided for mandatory "zipping" of male and female candidates in the list to ensure that for every party, half of the Members will be women. However, this bill was scrapped in September 2024.[11]

Opinion polling

LOESS curve of polling conducted
Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Lab Con Plaid Cymru Green Lib Dems AWA Reform Others Lead
25–29 Nov 2024 YouGov[12] Barn Cymru 1,121 23% 19% 24% 6% 5% – 23% 1% 1
4–24 Nov 2024 Beaufort Research Nation.Cymru 500 27% 18% 17% 6% 6% – 24% 2% 3
18 Oct – 4 Nov 2024 Survation[s 1] Reform UK 2,006 29% 18% 20% 7% 7% – 19% 1% 9
6 Aug 2024 Eluned Morgan becomes First Minister of Wales
5–18 Jul 2024 Welsh Election Study N/A 2,565 25% 16% 24% 6% 6% 7% 16% 1% 1
27 Jun – 1 Jul 2024 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,072 27% 18% 23% 5% 6% – 18% 3% 4
5–7 Jun 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 960 36% 22% 18% 6% 6% 2% 11% 0% 14
30 May – 3 Jun 2024 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,066 30% 19% 23% 6% 6% – 12% 4% 7
18–19 May 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 900 37% 20% 20% 5% 3% 5% 10% 0% 17
8 May 2024 The Senedd Reform Act is approved, implementing a new one-list electoral system by 2026.
6 May 2021 2021 Senedd election (regional)[13] – 36.2% 25.1% 20.7% 4.4% 4.3% 3.7% 1.1% 4.5% 11.1
6 May 2021 2021 Senedd election (constituency)[13] – 39.9% 26.1% 20.3% 1.6% 4.9% 1.6% 1.6% 4.0% 13.8

Past opinion polling

The following polls used questions designed for the two forms of voting in previous Senedd elections, that are to be abolished in the next Senedd election planned for 2026.

Regional vote

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Lab Con Plaid Cymru Green Lib Dems AWA UKIP Reform Others Lead
24 Jun 2024 The Senedd Reform Act receives Royal assent, abolishing the additional member system by 2026.
22–23 Apr 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 840 33% 18% 19% 6% 7% 4% – 12% 1% 14
23–24 Mar 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 878 32% 16% 18% 9% 7% 6% – 11% 1% 14
20 Mar 2024 Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales[14]
18 Feb 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 874 29% 16% 25% 4% 8% 7% – 10% 1% 4
24–26 Jan 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,100 34% 19% 21% 6% 6% 6% – 7% 1% 13
10–11 Dec 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,086 28% 20% 24% 7% 8% 4% – 7% 1% 4
12–13 Nov 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,100 32% 21% 18% 9% 6% 5% – 7% 1% 11
14–15 Oct 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 959 31% 21% 24% 4% 5% 7% – 8% – 10
16–17 Sep 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,172 35% 21% 18% 6% 12% 2% – 5% 1% 14
1–6 Sep 2023 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,051 34% 16% 20% 6% 6% 9% 1% 6% 2% 14
13–14 Aug 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,068 31% 19% 22% 6% 10% – – 10% 3% 9
14–16 Jul 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,050 33% 20% 19% 6% 10% – – 6% 4% 13
17–18 Jun 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,000 30% 22% 20% 6% 9% – – 8% 4% 8
1 Jun 2023 Rhun ap Iorwerth becomes Leader of Plaid Cymru
12–17 May 2023 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,064 36% 16% 18% 7% 7% 5% 1% 7% 1% 18
14–15 May 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,058 30% 21% 24% 4% 10% – – 8% 4% 6
15–17 Apr 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,251 32% 22% 23% 7% 8% – – 7% 2% 9
3–7 Feb 2023 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,081 39% 18% 20% 5% 5% 6% 0% 6% 1% 19
25 Nov – 1 Dec 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,042 38% 16% 23% 5% 4% 8% 2% 4%
2%
Gwlad on 1%
Other on 1%
 15
20–22 Sep 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,014 37% 18% 21% 5% 5% 7% 2% 4% 1% 16
12–16 Jun 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,020 31% 21% 24% 6% 5% 6% 2% 6%
2%
Gwlad on 1%
Other on 1%
 7
25 Feb – 1 Mar 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,086 34% 23% 20% 4% 6% 6% 1% 3%
2%
Gwlad on 1%
Other on 1%
 11
13–16 Dec 2021 YouGov ITV Wales 1,009 35% 22% 19% 7% 3% 6% 2% 5% 1% 13
13–16 Sep 2021 YouGov ITV Wales 1,057 33% 26% 19% 5% 4% 6% 4% 2% 1% 7
6 May 2021 2021 Senedd election[13] – 36.2% 25.1% 20.7% 4.4% 4.3% 3.7% 1.6% 1.1% 2.9% 11.1

Constituency vote

LOESS curve of the polling for the next Senedd Election Constituency Votes.
Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Lab Con Plaid Cymru Lib Dems AWA Green Reform Other Lead
8 May 2024 The Senedd Reform Act is approved, abolishing the additional member system by 2026.
22–23 Apr 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 840 37% 21% 22% 4% 3% 3% 10% 0% 15
23–24 Mar 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 878 36% 21% 21% 3% 3% 3% 11% 1% 15
20 Mar 2024 Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales[14]
18 Feb 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 874 34% 21% 19% 4% 6% 3% 13% 0% 13
24–26 Jan 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,100 39% 25% 18% 3% 3% 4% 9% 1% 14
10–11 Dec 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,086 41% 22% 17% 7% 3% 3% 7% 0% 19
12–13 Nov 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,100 40% 23% 18% 3% 3% 4% 7% 1% 17
14–15 Oct 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 959 37% 27% 18% 4% 5% 3% 6% - 10
16–17 Sep 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,172 39% 27% 18% 5% 1% 6% 3% 1% 12
1–6 Sep 2023 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,051 41% 18% 19% 6% – 4% 8% 7% 22
13–14 Aug 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,068 37% 21% 20% 6% – 3% 9% 4% 16
14–16 Jul 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,050 42% 22% 16% 6% – 3% 7% 3% 20
17–18 Jun 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,000 36% 22% 19% 7% – 3% 10% 3% 14
12–17 May 2023 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,064 40% 18% 17% 7% – 5% 8% 4% 22
14–15 May 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,058 38% 23% 20% 7% – 3% 7% 2% 15
15–17 Apr 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,251 41% 21% 20% 5% – 4% 8% 2% 20
3–7 Feb 2023 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,081 43% 18% 20% 4% – 4% 9% 1% 23
25 Nov – 1 Dec 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,042 44% 17% 20% 6% – 3% 7% 4% 24
20–22 Sep 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,014 40% 20% 22% 6% – 3% 5% 4% 18
12–16 Jun 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,020 37% 24% 21% 6% – 5% 5% 3% 13
25 Feb – 1 Mar 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,086 38% 24% 21% 6% – 3% 5% 4% 14
13–16 Dec 2021 YouGov ITV Wales 1,009 40% 23% 17% 4% – 5% 7% 4% 17
13–16 Sep 2021 YouGov ITV Wales 1,057 37% 27% 19% 5% – 4% 5% 5% 10
6 May 2021 2021 Senedd election[13] – 39.9% 26.1% 20.3% 4.9% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 4.0% 13.8

Notes

  1. ^ Survation asked voters to give their preferences under the current Additional Member System. The figure shown in this table is the proportional (regional) vote, as that is the closest equivalent to the new party list system.

See also

References

  1. ^ Owens, Cathy (8 September 2021). "What to expect from the next five years in Welsh politics". WalesOnline. Retrieved 29 September 2021.
  2. ^ Mansfield, Mark (8 May 2024). "MSs approve Senedd reform bill". Nation.Cymru.
  3. ^ Browne, Adrian; Deans, David (8 May 2024). "Senedd expansion plans get go-ahead in Cardiff Bay vote". BBC Wales.
  4. ^ "Mark Drakeford to quit Senedd at next election". BBC News. 9 August 2023. Retrieved 9 August 2023.
  5. ^ "Former Welsh first minister Vaughan Gething to stand down at next election". The Guardian. 7 September 2024. Retrieved 7 September 2024.
  6. ^ "Wales' 20mph minister to step down in 2026". BBC News. 24 October 2024. Retrieved 25 October 2024.
  7. ^ "Plans for more Senedd politicians get go-ahead". BBC News. 17 May 2022. Retrieved 14 June 2022.
  8. ^ "Senedd reform | GOV.WALES". www.gov.wales. 9 May 2024. Retrieved 17 May 2024.
  9. ^ "Senedd Cymru (Members and Elections) Act 2024". legislation.gov.uk.
  10. ^ "See exactly when the next election in Wales will be". South Wales Argus. 20 September 2023. Retrieved 19 August 2024.
  11. ^ Browne, Adrian (24 September 2024). "Senedd backs U-turn on election gender quotas". BBC News. Retrieved 26 October 2024.
  12. ^ "Plaid Cymru leads new Senedd poll with Conservatives in 4th place". Barn Cymru. 1 December 2024. Retrieved 2 December 2024.
  13. ^ a b c d Davies, Owain; Holzinger, Owen; McCarthy, Joanne; Jones, Helen (2021). Senedd Election 2021: Research Briefing (PDF). Senedd Research. p. 16.
  14. ^ a b "Vaughan Gething confirmed as Wales' new first minister". BBC News. 19 March 2024. Retrieved 20 March 2024.