2024 United States Senate election in Minnesota

2024 United States Senate election in Minnesota
← 2018 November 5, 2024 2030 →
 
Nominee Amy Klobuchar Royce White
Party Democratic (DFL) Republican
Popular vote 1,792,441 1,291,712
Percentage 56.20% 40.50%
Klobuchar:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
White:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%
U.S. senator before election

Amy Klobuchar
Democratic (DFL)

Elected U.S. Senator

Amy Klobuchar
Democratic (DFL)

Elections in Minnesota
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2012
Minneapolis
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The 2024 United States Senate election in Minnesota was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Minnesota. Democratic incumbent Amy Klobuchar won a fourth term in office, defeating Republican former basketball player Royce White. Primary elections took place on August 13, 2024.[1]

Klobuchar won re-election by a comfortable 15.7% margin,[2] but this was her narrowest margin of victory out of her four Senate campaigns, as well as the first time that she failed to sweep all eight of the state's congressional districts.

Background

Minnesota is considered to be a slightly to moderately blue state at the federal level. In the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden carried Minnesota by about seven percentage points. Democrats control both U.S. Senate seats, all statewide executive offices, and both state legislative chambers.[3][4]

Klobuchar was first elected in 2006, defeating former U.S. Representative Mark Kennedy. She won re-election in 2012 and 2018 by large margins.[5]

This race was considered to be clearly favoring Klobuchar, as she had won all three of her previous Senate elections by more than 20 points and typically over-performs other down-ballot candidates.[6]

Democratic–Farmer–Labor primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Steve Carlson, business consultant and perennial candidate[8]
  • Ahmad Hassan, businessman and perennial candidate[8]
  • George Kalberer, financial management executive and candidate for Minnesota's 1st congressional district in 2022[8]
  • Ole Savior, artist and perennial candidate[8]

Endorsements

Amy Klobuchar

U.S representatives

Organizations

Political parties

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of July 24, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Amy Klobuchar (DFL) $18,972,719 $16,340,965 $6,567,231
Source: Federal Election Commission[22]

Results

Results by county:
  Klobuchar—90.0–92.5%
  Klobuchar—92.5–95.0%
  Klobuchar—95.0–97.5%
  Klobuchar—97.5–100%

Klobuchar swept the primary, earning more than 90% of the vote in every county of the state. She recorded her best performance in Pope County, while her worst performance was in Anoka County. There, she came the closest to slipping below 90%, having won 90.00471% of the vote.[23]

Democratic (DFL) primary results[24]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic (DFL) Amy Klobuchar (incumbent) 305,055 94.29%
Democratic (DFL) Steve Carlson 9,535 2.95%
Democratic (DFL) Ahmad Hassan 4,891 1.51%
Democratic (DFL) Ole Savior 2,478 0.77%
Democratic (DFL) George Kalberer 1,578 0.49%
Total votes 323,540 100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • John Berman, engineer and perennial candidate[26]
  • Loner Blue, retiree and convicted felon[8]
  • Joe Fraser, banker[27]
  • Alycia Gruenhagen, food co-op manager and Democratic candidate for Minnesota's 7th congressional district in 2020 and 2022[8]
  • Patrick Munro, landscaping company owner and perennial candidate[26]
  • Raymond Petersen, truck driver[8]
  • Christopher Seymore, teacher and perennial candidate[8]

Declined

Endorsements

Joe Fraser

U.S. Senators

Statewide officials

Organizations

Royce White

U.S. Representatives

Individuals

Political parties

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of July 24, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Joe Fraser (R) $68,438 $45,860 $22,578
Royce White (R) $132,721 $79,782 $52,940
Source: Federal Election Commission[22]

Results

county
Results by county
Map legend
  •   White—20–30%
  •   White—30–40%
  •   White—40–50%
  •   White—50–60%
  •   Fraser—20–30%
  •   Fraser—30–40%
  •   Gruenhagen—30–40%
  •   Gruenhagen—40–50%
congressional district
Results by congressional district
Map legend
  •   White—30–40%
  •   White—40–50%
Republican primary results[24]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Royce White 74,814 38.50%
Republican Joe Fraser 56,909 29.29%
Republican Raymond Petersen 16,237 8.36%
Republican Alycia Gruenhagen 15,017 7.73%
Republican John Berman 14,158 7.29%
Republican Patrick Munro 9,444 4.86%
Republican Christopher Seymore 5,020 2.58%
Republican Loner Blue 2,727 1.40%
Total votes 194,336 100.0%

Third-party and independent candidates

Candidates

Declared

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[37] Solid D November 9, 2023
Inside Elections[38] Solid D November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[39] Safe D November 9, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[40] Safe D August 26, 2024
Elections Daily[41] Safe D May 4, 2023
CNalysis[42] Solid D November 21, 2023
RealClearPolitics[43] Solid D August 5, 2024
Split Ticket[44] Safe D October 30, 2024
538[45] Solid D October 31, 2024

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Amy
Klobuchar (DFL) 		Royce
White (R) 		Undecided
[a] 		Margin
RealClearPolitics[46] October 16 - November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 52.0% 39.0% 9.0% Klobuchar +13.0%
538[47] through November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 51.2% 38.4% 10.4% Klobuchar +12.8%
270toWin[48] October 16 - November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 49.7% 36.0% 14.3% Klobuchar +13.7%
Average 51.0% 37.8% 11.2% Klobuchar +13.2%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Amy
Klobuchar (DFL) 		Royce
White (R) 		Other Undecided
AtlasIntel[49] November 1–4, 2024 2,065 (LV) ± 2.0% 53% 41% 4%[c] 2%
Research Co.[50] November 2–3, 2024 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 55% 38% 3%[d] 4%
ActiVote[51] October 8–31, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 56% 44% – –
Chism Strategies[52] October 28–30, 2024 534 (LV) ± 4.2% 52% 35% 3%[e] 11%
SurveyUSA[53][A] October 24–28, 2024 728 (LV) ± 4.0% 52% 35% 3% 10%
Embold Research[54][B] October 16–22, 2024 1,734 (LV) ± 2.4% 52% 40% 2%[f] 6%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[55][C] October 12–14, 2024 544 (LV) ± 3.9% 42% 35% 5%[g] 19%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[56][C] September 27 – October 2, 2024 551 (LV) ± 3.9% 46% 38% 6%[h] 11%
SurveyUSA[57][A] September 23–26, 2024 646 (LV) ± 4.3% 53% 35% 5% 8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[58][C] September 16–19, 2024 703 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 34% 7%[i] 17%
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy[59][D] September 16–18, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 51% 40% 1%[j] 8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[60][C] September 6–9, 2024 617 (LV) ± 3.7% 42% 36% 5%[k] 16%
Embold Research[61][B] September 4–8, 2024 1,616 (LV) ± 2.8% 52% 41% – 7%
SurveyUSA[62][A] August 27–29, 2024 635 (LV) ± 4.5% 50% 36% 4% 11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[63][C] August 25–28, 2024 426 (LV) ± 4.4% 41% 34% 8%[l] 18%
SurveyUSA[64][A] July 23–25, 2024 656 (LV) ± 4.4% 55% 33% 4% 8%
Fox News[65] July 22–24, 2024 1,071 (RV) ± 3.0% 57% 40% – 2%
Emerson College[66][E] June 13–18, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 37% 4% 10%
SurveyUSA[67][A] June 12–16, 2024 626 (LV) ± 4.5% 49% 35% 4% 12%
Hypothetical polling

Amy Klobuchar vs. Joe Fraser

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Amy
Klobuchar (DFL) 		Joe
Fraser (R) 		Other Undecided
SurveyUSA[64][A] July 23–25, 2024 656 (LV) ± 4.4% 54% 33% 4% 10%
Emerson College[66][E] June 13–18, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 47% 37% 5% 10%
SurveyUSA[67][A] June 12–16, 2024 626 (LV) ± 4.5% 49% 36% 4% 11%
SurveyUSA[68][A] May 8–11, 2024 625 (LV) ± 4.3% 48% 34% 5% 12%
SurveyUSA[69][A] April 3–7, 2024 608 (LV) ± 4.9% 51% 34% 6% 10%
SurveyUSA[70][A] February 23–28, 2024 1,603 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 33% 5% 14%

Results

2024 United States Senate election in Minnesota[71]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic (DFL) Amy Klobuchar (incumbent) 1,792,441 56.20% −4.11%
Republican Royce White 1,291,712 40.50% +4.29%
Libertarian Rebecca Whiting 55,215 1.73% N/A
Independence Joyce Lacey 46,377 1.45% N/A
Write-in 3,578 0.11% +0.07%
Total votes 3,189,323 100.00% N/A
Democratic (DFL) hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Klobuchar won 5 of 8 congressional districts, including one that elected a Republican.[72]

District Klobuchar White Representative
1st 49% 48% Brad Finstad
2nd 57% 40% Angie Craig
3rd 63% 34% Dean Phillips (118th Congress)
Kelly Morrison (119th Congress)
4th 70% 26% Betty McCollum
5th 82% 15% Ilhan Omar
6th 45% 52% Tom Emmer
7th 40% 57% Michelle Fischbach
8th 48% 49% Pete Stauber

Notes

  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ "Other" with 2%; "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 2%
  4. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
  5. ^ Joyce Lacey (I) with 2%; Rebecca Whiting (L) with 1%
  6. ^ "Would not vote" with 2%
  7. ^ "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 2%; Lacey (I) with 2%; Whiting (L) with 1%
  8. ^ "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 3%; Lacey (I) with 2%; Whiting (L) with 1%
  9. ^ Lacey (I) with 3%; "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 4%
  10. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  11. ^ Lacey (I) with 2%; Whiting (L), "Won't vote if these are the candidates", and "Other" with 1%
  12. ^ Lacey (I) with 3%; "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 3%; "Other" with 2%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j Poll sponsored by KSTP-TV, WDIO-TV, and KAAL
  2. ^ a b Poll sponsored by MinnPost
  3. ^ a b c d e Poll sponsored by The Daily Telegraph
  4. ^ Poll sponsored by the Star Tribune, Minnesota Public Radio, and KARE
  5. ^ a b Poll sponsored by The Hill

References

  1. ^ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved May 13, 2023.
  2. ^ "Live Minnesota election results: Sen. Amy Klobuchar wins race". Fox 9. November 5, 2024. Retrieved November 5, 2024.
  3. ^ "Live election results: 2020 Minnesota results". www.politico.com. Retrieved April 19, 2023.
  4. ^ Faircloth, Ryan; Tribune, Briana Bierschbach Star (November 9, 2022). "Democrats take control of the Minnesota Legislature". Star Tribune. Retrieved April 19, 2023.
  5. ^ "Minnesota Secretary Of State - 2006 General Election Results". www.sos.state.mn.us. Retrieved April 19, 2023.
  6. ^ Golshan, Tara (February 10, 2019). "Sen. Amy Klobuchar has won every one of her elections by huge margins. Now she's running for president". Vox. Retrieved April 19, 2023.
  7. ^ Everett, Burgess (October 5, 2022). "Senate Dems face brutal 2024 map with at least eight undecided incumbents". Politico. Retrieved October 5, 2022. Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) said she's made it 'very clear' she's running again
  8. ^ a b c d e f g h "Candidate Filings, 2024 State General Election, United States Senator". Office of the Minnesota Secretary of State. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
  9. ^ a b "GIFFORDS PAC Endorses Senator Amy Klobuchar for Reelection". Giffords. January 24, 2024. Retrieved January 26, 2024.
  10. ^ "- AIPAC Political Portal". candidates.aipacpac.org. Archived from the original on August 27, 2023. Retrieved August 27, 2023.
  11. ^ Chou, Lauren (May 10, 2023). "EMILYs List Endorses Amy Klobuchar for Reelection to the United States Senate". EMILYs List. Retrieved October 1, 2023.
  12. ^ a b "End Citizens United // Let America Vote Endorses Senator Klobuchar for Reelection". March 30, 2023.
  13. ^ "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
  14. ^ "Jewish Dems: President Biden Stands with Israel". Jewish Democratic Council of America. Retrieved May 10, 2024.
  15. ^ "Amy Klobuchar". JStreetPAC. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
  16. ^ "Meet JAC's 2024 Candidates | Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs". jacpac.org. Archived from the original on September 1, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023.
  17. ^ "LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of Congressional Endorsements". League of Conservation Voters. Retrieved July 27, 2023.
  18. ^ Dison, Denis (September 20, 2023). "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 51 House, Senate Incumbents". NRDC Action Fund. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
  19. ^ "2024 Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorsed Candidates". Planned Parenthood Action Fund. Retrieved November 6, 2023.
  20. ^ "2024 Endorsements". Population Connection Action Fund. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
  21. ^ Leier, Joe. "Minnesota Democrats endorse Klobuchar for US Senate race". The Mighty 790 KFGO | KFGO. Retrieved June 3, 2024.
  22. ^ a b "2024 Election United States Senate - Minnesota". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved August 11, 2023.
  23. ^ "AP News". 2024 Minnesota Election Results. Retrieved August 24, 2024.
  24. ^ a b "State Primary Tuesday, August 13, 2024 - U.S. Senator". Minnesota Secretary of State.
  25. ^ Whalen, Eamon (August 23, 2023). "Royce White Announces Run for Senate With New Conspiracy Theory". Mother Jones. Retrieved August 23, 2023.
  26. ^ a b Frisk, Garrett (July 5, 2023). "Minnesota Democrat Amy Klobuchar Challenged by Two Republicans". Diamond Eye Candidate Report. Retrieved July 5, 2023.
  27. ^ Brown, Kyle (January 29, 2024). "West metro Republican launches campaign challenging Klobuchar for Senate seat". KSTP.com 5 Eyewitness News. Retrieved January 30, 2024.
  28. ^ a b c d e f g h Van Oot, Tery (August 21, 2023). "Here's who's not running for U.S. Senate in Minnesota next year". Axios.
  29. ^ a b c Zdechlik, Mark (July 5, 2024). "Sharply contrasted GOP candidates vie for Senate nod against Klobuchar". Minnesota Public Radio. Retrieved July 23, 2024.
  30. ^ Smilk, Carin M. (July 25, 2024). "RJC endorses Joe Fraser in Minnesota Senate race". JNS.org. Retrieved July 26, 2024.
  31. ^ a b c Schwartz, Rafi (June 18, 2024). "Who is Royce White, the basketball star challenging Sen. Amy Klobuchar?". The Week. Retrieved July 22, 2024. [White's party endorsement] can also be attributed to the 'support of national far-right Republican figures' such as Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), InfoWars host Alex Jones, and top Donald Trump adviser Steve Bannon
  32. ^ Hank Long (June 18, 2024). "Campaigns trade barbs, tout high-profile endorsements as GOP Senate primary heats up". Alpha News. Retrieved June 24, 2024. Royce White announced Tuesday that his campaign has the support of Kari Lake.
  33. ^ Kashiwagi, Sydney (August 13, 2024). "Royce White and Joe Fraser face off in GOP primary for U.S. Senate". Star Tribune. Retrieved August 13, 2024.
  34. ^ Vondracek, Christopher (May 18, 2024). "In a surprise, Minnesota Republicans back Royce White to run against Amy Klobuchar". Star Tribune. Retrieved May 18, 2024.
  35. ^ Tillman, Scott (July 31, 2023). "Joyce Lacey Pledges to Support Term Limits on Congress". US Term Limits. Retrieved September 1, 2023.
  36. ^ "2024 Petitioning for LPMN-Endorsed Candidates". Libertarian Party of Minnesota. Retrieved June 24, 2024.
  37. ^ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
  38. ^ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
  39. ^ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
  40. ^ "2024 Senate prediction map". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. June 8, 2024. Retrieved June 8, 2024.
  41. ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
  42. ^ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
  43. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2024". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved August 5, 2024.
  44. ^ "2024 Senate Forecast". Split Ticket. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
  45. ^ "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
  46. ^ RealClearPolitics
  47. ^ 538
  48. ^ 270toWin
  49. ^ AtlasIntel
  50. ^ Research Co.
  51. ^ ActiVote
  52. ^ Chism Strategies
  53. ^ SurveyUSA
  54. ^ Embold Research
  55. ^ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
  56. ^ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
  57. ^ SurveyUSA
  58. ^ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
  59. ^ Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy
  60. ^ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
  61. ^ Embold Research
  62. ^ SurveyUSA
  63. ^ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
  64. ^ a b SurveyUSA
  65. ^ Fox News
  66. ^ a b Emerson College
  67. ^ a b SurveyUSA
  68. ^ SurveyUSA
  69. ^ SurveyUSA
  70. ^ SurveyUSA
  71. ^ "2024 State Canvassing Board Certificate". Minnesota Secretary of State. November 21, 2024. Retrieved November 25, 2024.
  72. ^ "Home - Election Results".

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