2024 United States presidential election in New York
2024 United States presidential election in New York Turnout 58.6% ( 11.1 pp )
County results
Congressional district results
Harris
40–50%
50–60%
60–70%
70–80%
80–90%
Trump
40–50%
50–60%
60–70%
70–80%
The 2024 United States presidential election in New York was held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. New York voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of New York had 28 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat.[ 1]
Though it remained comfortably Democratic, New York was the state that had the biggest Republican swing out of any state in the nation in the 2024 election , with Trump greatly improving his performance by winning 42.71% of the state's vote, compared to 36.75% in the 2016 election and 37.74% in the 2020 election . New York follows a trend of blue states , such as Massachusetts , New Jersey , Illinois and California shifting red.[ 2] [ 3]
Polling had indicated a potentially closer race in New York in 2024 than in 2016 or 2020, but Democrats still consistently led by margins well outside the margin of error.[ 4] [ 5] Nonetheless, Trump's performance in New York was the strongest of any Republican presidential candidate since Vice President George H. W. Bush lost by just 4.1 points in the 1988 election .[ 6]
Primary elections
Democratic primary
The 2024 New York Democratic presidential primary was held on April 2, alongside primaries in Connecticut , Rhode Island , and Wisconsin .
Primary polling
Republican primary
The New York Republican primary was held on April 2, 2024, alongside the Connecticut primary .
General election
Only two candidates appeared on the ballot in New York: Kamala Harris (under the Democratic and Working Families Party tickets) and Donald Trump (under the Republican and New York Conservative Party tickets).[ 14] Robert F. Kennedy Jr. did not appear on the ballot in New York[ 15] after Judge Christina Ryba of the 3rd New York Judicial District[ 16] ruled that he falsely listed his place of residence as Katonah, New York but actually lived in Los Angeles .[ 17]
The state authorized votes for 12 write-in candidates :[ 18]
These electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidate win the state:[ 21]
Predictions
Source
Ranking
As of
Cook Political Report [ 22]
Solid D
December 19, 2023
Inside Elections [ 23]
Solid D
April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [ 24]
Safe D
June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ /The Hill [ 25]
Safe D
December 14, 2023
CNalysis [ 26]
Solid D
December 30, 2023
CNN [ 27]
Solid D
January 14, 2024
The Economist [ 28]
Safe D
June 12, 2024
538 [ 29]
Solid D
August 23, 2024
RCP [ 30]
Solid D
June 26, 2024
NBC News [ 31]
Safe D
October 6, 2024
Polling
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size[ a]
Margin of error
Kamala HarrisDemocratic
Donald TrumpRepublican
Other / Undecided
Research Co.[ 32]
November 2–3, 2024
450 (LV)
± 4.6%
57%
41%
2%
ActiVote[ 33]
October 7–27, 2024
400 (LV)
± 4.9%
59%
41%
–
Siena College [ 34]
October 13–17, 2024
872 (LV)
± 4.1%
58%
39%
3%
ActiVote[ 35]
September 4–30, 2024
400 (LV)
± 4.9%
61%
39%
–
Emerson College [ 36] [ A]
September 23–25, 2024
1,000 (RV)
± 3.0%
54%
40%
6%[ b]
Siena College [ 37]
September 11–16, 2024
1,003 (LV)
± 4.3%
55%
42%
3%
August 23, 2024
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
August 22, 2024
Democratic National Convention concludes
ActiVote[ 38]
August 1–21, 2024
400 (LV)
± 4.9%
58%
42%
–
August 19, 2024
Democratic National Convention begins
August 6, 2024
Kamala Harris selects Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate.
Siena College [ 39]
July 28 – August 1, 2024
1,199 (LV)
± 4.0%
53%
39%
8%
July 21, 2024
Joe Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president.
SoCal Strategies (R)[ 40] [ B]
July 18–19, 2024
500 (LV)
± 4.4%
52%
41%
7%
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size[ a]
Margin of error
Kamala HarrisDemocratic
Donald TrumpRepublican
Cornel WestIndependent
Jill SteinGreen
Chase OliverLibertarian
Other / Undecided
Siena College [ 37]
September 11–16, 2024
1,003 (LV)
± 4.3%
52%
40%
1%
2%
0%
5%
Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size[ a]
Margin of error
Kamala HarrisDemocratic
Donald TrumpRepublican
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.Independent
Cornel WestIndependent
Jill SteinGreen
Chase OliverLibertarian
Other / Undecided
Siena College [ 34]
October 13–17, 2024
872 (LV)
± 4.1%
54%
37%
0%
1%
1%
1%
6%[ c]
Siena College [ 39]
July 28 – August 1, 2024
1,199 (LV)
± 4.0%
49%
37%
7%
1%
2%
1%
10%
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size[ a]
Margin of error
Joe BidenDemocratic
Donald TrumpRepublican
Other / Undecided
SoCal Strategies (R)[ 40] [ B]
July 18–19, 2024
500 (LV)
± 4.4%
52%
41%
7%
Siena College [ 41]
June 12–13 & 16–17, 2024
805 (RV)
± 4.1%
47%
39%
14%
Emerson College [ 42] [ C]
May 28–29, 2024
1,000 (RV)
± 3.0%
48%
41%
11%
55% [ d]
45%
–
Siena College [ 43]
May 13–15, 2024
1,191 (RV)
± 3.9%
47%
38%
15%
Slingshot Strategies (D)[ 44]
May 2–3, 2024
1,059 (RV)
± 5.0%
56%
37%
17%
John Zogby Strategies [ 45] [ D]
April 13–21, 2024
749 (LV)
–
48%
42%
10%
Siena College [ 46]
April 15–17, 2024
806 (RV)
± 4.1%
47%
37%
16%
Siena College [ 47]
February 12–14, 2024
806 (RV)
± 4.2%
48%
36%
16%
Siena College [ 48]
January 14–17, 2024
807 (RV)
± 4.5%
46%
37%
17%
Siena College [ 49]
November 12–15, 2023
803 (RV)
± 4.6%
46%
36%
18%
Siena College [ 50]
October 15–19, 2023
1,225 (RV)
± 3.4%
46%
37%
17%
Siena College [ 51]
September 10–13, 2023
804 (RV)
± 4.3%
52%
31%
17%
Siena College [ 9]
August 13–16, 2023
803 (RV)
± 4.4%
47%
34%
19%
Siena College [ 10]
June 20–25, 2023
817 (RV)
± 3.9%
50%
28%
21%
SurveyUSA [ 52] [ E]
November 3–6, 2022
918 (RV)
± 4.1%
46%
34%
20%
Emerson College [ 53] [ C]
October 20–24, 2022
1,000 (LV)
± 3.0%
47%
40%
13%
SurveyUSA [ 54] [ F]
October 14–18, 2022
1,018 (RV)
± 4.4%
42%
37%
21%
Emerson College [ 55]
September 4–6, 2022
1,000 (LV)
± 3.0%
53%
37%
10%
SurveyUSA [ 56] [ E]
August 17–21, 2022
715 (LV)
± 4.6%
49%
29%
22%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[ 57]
August 7–9, 2022
600 (LV)
± 4.0%
52%
40%
8%
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size[ a]
Margin of error
Joe BidenDemocratic
Donald TrumpRepublican
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.Independent
Cornel WestIndependent
Other / Undecided
Siena College [ 47]
February 12–14, 2024
806 (RV)
± 4.2%
42%
32%
13%
6%
7%
Siena College [ 48]
January 14–17, 2024
807 (RV)
± 4.5%
41%
32%
13%
3%
11%
Siena College [ 49]
November 12–15, 2023
803 (RV)
± 4.6%
37%
28%
18%
5%
11%
Siena College [ 50]
October 15–19, 2023
1,225 (RV)
± 3.4%
38%
31%
13%
5%
12%
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size[ a]
Margin of error
Joe BidenDemocratic
Donald TrumpRepublican
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.Independent
Cornel WestIndependent
Jill SteinGreen
Other / Undecided
Emerson College [ 42] [ C]
May 28–29, 2024
1,000 (RV)
± 3.0%
44%
38%
6%
2%
1%
9%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates
Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size[ a]
Margin of error
Joe BidenDemocratic
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.Independent
Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [ 45] [ D]
April 13–21, 2024
749 (LV)
–
44%
44%
12%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size[ a]
Margin of error
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.Independent
Donald TrumpRepublican
Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [ 45] [ D]
April 13–21, 2024
749 (LV)
–
45%
39%
16%
Results
New York City results
2024 presidential election in New York City [ 59]
Manhattan
The Bronx
Brooklyn
Queens
Staten Island
Total
Democratic -Working Families
Kamala Harris
533,782
261,670
601,265
437,282
69,345
1,903,344
68.10%
80.80%
71.88%
70.43%
61.08%
34.58%
Republican -Conservative
Donald Trump
113,921
98,174
233,964
264,628
128,151
838,838
30.01%
17.24%
26.97%
27.40%
36.96%
63.90%
Write-in
Write-in
12,930
4,217
18,215
14,054
3,062
52,778
1.89%
1.96%
1.15%
2.17%
1.96%
1.52%
Total
660,633
364,061
853,744
715,964
200,558
2,794,960
100.00%
By New York City Council district
2024 presidential election New York City Council map
Harris won 43 of 51 New York City Council districts, including one held by a Republican, while Trump won eight districts, including three held by Democrats.[ 60]
By county
County[ 61]
Kamala Harris Democratic
Donald Trump Republican
Various candidates Other parties[ 59]
Margin
Total
#
%
#
%
#
%
#
%
Albany
92,589
61.86%
54,560
36.45%
2,528
1.69%
38,029
25.41%
149,677
Allegany
5,483
28.08%
13,826
70.80%
220
1.12%
-8,343
-42.72%
19,529
Bronx
261,670
71.88%
98,174
26.97%
4,217
1.15%
163,496
44.91%
364,061
Broome
45,142
49.59%
44,763
49.17%
1,129
1.24%
379
0.42%
91,034
Cattaraugus
11,424
33.49%
22,586
66.22%
97
0.29%
-11,162
-32.73%
34,107
Cayuga
15,772
43.19%
20,482
56.09%
263
0.72%
-4,710
-12.90%
36,517
Chautauqua
22,085
38.71%
34,528
60.53%
433
0.76%
-12,443
-21.82%
57,046
Chemung
15,572
41.46%
21,861
58.20%
127
0.34%
-6,289
-16.74%
37,560
Chenango
8,177
36.09%
14,294
63.09%
184
0.82%
-6,117
-27.00%
22,655
Clinton
17,478
48.80%
18,247
50.95%
92
0.25%
-769
-2.15%
35,817
Columbia
20,396
56.82%
15,168
42.25%
333
0.93%
5,228
14.57%
35,897
Cortland
10,290
46.64%
11,706
53.06%
67
0.30%
-1,416
-6.42%
22,063
Delaware
9,237
39.71%
13,789
59.28%
234
1.01%
-4,552
-19.57%
23,260
Dutchess
79,994
52.14%
71,778
46.79%
1,641
1.07%
8,216
5.35%
153,413
Erie
248,651
54.08%
204,774
44.54%
6,364
1.38%
43,877
9.54%
459,789
Essex
9,629
50.06%
9,533
49.56%
74
0.38%
96
0.50%
19,236
Franklin
8,821
45.33%
10,569
54.32%
68
0.35%
-1,748
-8.99%
19,458
Fulton
7,666
31.87%
16,237
67.51%
150
0.62%
-8,571
-35.64%
24,053
Genesee
9,367
32.93%
18,997
66.79%
80
0.28%
-9,630
-33.86%
28,444
Greene
10,436
41.02%
14,702
57.79%
302
1.19%
-4,266
-16.77%
25,440
Hamilton
1,211
35.21%
2,223
64.64%
5
0.15%
-1,012
-29.43%
3,439
Herkimer
9,110
31.57%
19,557
67.77%
190
0.66%
-10,447
-36.20%
28,857
Jefferson
16,326
38.11%
26,417
61.66%
100
0.23%
-10,091
-23.55%
42,843
Kings
601,265
70.43%
233,964
27.40%
18,515
2.17%
367,301
43.03%
853,744
Lewis
3,600
27.62%
9,353
71.77%
79
0.61%
-5,753
-44.15%
13,032
Livingston
12,148
39.14%
18,780
60.51%
107
0.35%
-6,632
-21.37%
31,035
Madison
14,629
43.00%
19,025
55.92%
365
1.08%
-4,396
-12.92%
34,019
Monroe
214,757
58.90%
145,940
40.03%
3,893
1.07%
68,817
18.87%
364,590
Montgomery
7,356
35.40%
13,286
63.93%
140
0.67%
-5,930
-28.53%
20,782
Nassau
338,424
47.29%
368,117
51.44%
9,124
1.27%
-29,693
-4.15%
715,665
New York
533,782
80.80%
113,921
17.24%
12,930
1.96%
419,861
63.56%
660,633
Niagara
43,438
42.21%
58,678
57.01%
802
0.78%
-15,240
-14.80%
102,918
Oneida
39,415
39.10%
60,687
60.20%
712
0.70%
-21,272
-21.10%
100,814
Onondaga
133,155
57.91%
93,916
40.84%
2,871
1.25%
39,239
17.07%
229,942
Ontario
29,520
48.91%
30,221
50.07%
611
1.02%
-701
-1.16%
60,352
Orange
80,253
45.69%
94,936
54.05%
471
0.26%
-14,683
-8.36%
175,660
Orleans
5,366
29.69%
12,659
70.05%
46
0.26%
-7,293
-40.36%
18,071
Oswego
20,483
37.82%
33,548
61.94%
132
0.24%
-13,065
-24.12%
54,163
Otsego
13,031
45.58%
15,256
53.36%
305
1.06%
-2,225
-7.78%
28,592
Putnam
23,956
42.77%
31,553
56.33%
505
0.90%
-7,597
-13.56%
56,014
Queens
437,282
61.08%
264,628
36.96%
14,054
1.96%
172,654
24.12%
715,964
Rensselaer
39,668
50.12%
38,601
48.78%
882
1.11%
1,067
1.35%
79,151
Richmond
69,345
34.58%
128,151
63.90%
3,062
1.52%
-58,806
-29.32%
200,558
Rockland
65,880
43.68%
83,543
55.39%
1,402
0.93%
-17,663
-11.71%
150,825
St. Lawrence
18,010
40.78%
25,919
58.68%
239
0.54%
-7,909
-17.90%
44,168
Saratoga
66,321
50.70%
63,940
48.88%
551
0.42%
2,381
1.82%
130,812
Schenectady
39,733
54.75%
31,975
44.06%
864
1.19%
7,758
10.69%
72,572
Schoharie
5,547
34.43%
10,423
64.69%
142
0.88%
-4,876
-30.26%
16,112
Schuyler
3,736
39.19%
5,717
59.98%
79
0.83%
-1,981
-20.79%
9,532
Seneca
6,610
43.76%
8,379
55.47%
116
0.77%
-1,769
-11.71%
15,105
Steuben
15,413
33.82%
29,777
65.34%
385
0.84%
-14,364
-31.52%
45,575
Suffolk
341,812
44.81%
417,549
54.74%
3,488
0.45%
-75,737
-9.93%
762,849
Sullivan
14,549
41.50%
20,386
58.14%
127
0.36%
-5,837
-16.64%
35,062
Tioga
9,437
38.43%
15,038
61.23%
84
0.34%
-5,601
-22.80%
24,559
Tompkins
34,631
73.84%
11,354
24.21%
917
1.95%
23,277
49.63%
46,902
Ulster
57,974
58.46%
39,743
40.07%
1,455
1.47%
18,231
18.39%
99,172
Warren
17,099
47.40%
18,606
51.58%
370
1.02%
-1,507
-4.18%
36,075
Washington
11,224
39.09%
17,268
60.13%
224
0.78%
-6,044
-21.04%
28,716
Wayne
17,056
38.18%
27,286
61.09%
326
0.73%
-10,230
-22.91%
44,668
Westchester
287,434
62.78%
167,795
36.65%
2,609
0.57%
119,639
26.13%
457,838
Wyoming
4,929
25.72%
14,112
73.63%
125
0.65%
-9,183
-47.91%
19,166
Yates
4,401
41.48%
6,098
57.48%
110
1.04%
-1,697
-16.00%
10,609
Totals
4,619,195
55.65%
3,578,899
43.12%
102,117
1.23%
1,040,296
12.53%
8,300,211
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Swing by county
Democratic — +0-2.5%
Republican — +0-2.5%
Republican — +2.5-5%
Republican — +5-7.5%
Republican — +7.5-10%
Republican — +10-12.5%
Republican — +12.5-15%
Republican — +>15%
County flips
Democratic
Hold
Republican
Hold
Gain from Democratic
By congressional district
Harris won 19 of 26 congressional districts, with the remaining seven going to Trump. Each candidate won a congressional district that elected a representative of the other party.[ 62] [user-generated source ] [ 63] [self-published source ]
Analysis
New Yorkers voting in a polling location near Lincoln Square
A heavily populated Middle Atlantic state , New York is considered a blue state , not having voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1984 . New York continued that trend in 2024, but Democrats saw a huge underperformance compared to past elections. All counties in the state except for Hamilton , Yates , and Tompkins swung towards the Republicans in 2024. Outside of the five boroughs of New York City, Trump won it with 2,740,061 votes to Harris's 2,715,851 votes, or 48.6% to 48.2%, thereby making him the first Republican to do so since 1988. Trump became the first Republican to ever win the White House without winning Essex or Saratoga counties.[citation needed ]
See also
Notes
^ a b c d e f g h i Key: A – all adults RV – registered voters LV – likely voters V – unclear
^ "Someone else" with 3%
^ "Someone else" with 1%
^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
Partisan clients
References
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^ Mathis, Joel; published, The Week US (November 13, 2024). "Where did Democratic voters go?" . theweek . Retrieved November 14, 2024 .
^ Collins, Keith; Levitt, Zach; New York Times (November 22, 2024). "Trump Gained 95,000 Votes in New York City. Democrats Lost Half a Million" .
^ "Now Deep Blue New York Is Turning Into a Battleground State for Biden" . Yahoo News . July 10, 2024. Retrieved July 23, 2024 .
^ "Trump Says He Has 'Good Chance' of Winning New York in November" . Bloomberg.com . April 25, 2024. Retrieved July 23, 2024 .
^ Donlevy, Katherine (November 6, 2024). "2024 presidential election marks closest New York has come to turning red in 30 years as Trump support surges in NYC" . Retrieved November 14, 2024 .
^ "Certified 2024 Democratic Presidential Primary Results" . New York State Board of Elections. Retrieved May 1, 2024 .
^ "Siena College" (PDF) .
^ a b "Siena College Poll Conducted by the Siena College Research Institute August 13 - 16, 2023" (PDF) . Siena College . August 22, 2023.
^ a b "Siena College Poll Conducted by the Siena College Research Institute June 20 - 25, 2023" (PDF) . Siena College . June 28, 2023.
^ "Siena College" (PDF) .
^ "Siena College" (PDF) .
^ "Certified 2024 Republican Presidential Primary Results" . New York State Board of Electiom. Retrieved May 20, 2024 .
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^ Yilek, Caitlin; Novelo, Allison (August 23, 2024). "Map shows where RFK Jr. is on the ballot in the 2024 election" . CBS News . Retrieved August 24, 2024 .
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^ "Majorities of NY Voters Feel Less Safe Today Than One Year Ago, Believe Cashless Bail Causing Crime to Increase; Strong Support For Gun Reform; Inflation, Abortion Remain Top Issues in Election; Voters Give Slim Advantage to Republican Party on Reducing Crime, Improving the Economy" . SurveyUSA . November 7, 2022.
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^ "11 Weeks To NY Election, Incumbent Dem Kathy Hochul Holds Wide Lead Over GOP's Zeldin; Candidates Tie Among Those Focused on Inflation" . SurveyUSA . August 22, 2022.
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^ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZHx5E0-5vuXxcZShBgsAl_vwAntkkanGqYQp0owNjoQ/edit?gid=0#gid=0
^ https://x.com/lxeagle17/status/1875338260102443318
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