2024 United States presidential election in Idaho

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election
2024 United States presidential election in Idaho
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
 
Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida California
Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz
Electoral vote 4 0
Popular vote 605,246 274,972
Percentage 66.87% 30.38%
President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

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The 2024 United States presidential election in Idaho took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Idaho voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Idaho has 4 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]

Prior to the election, all major news organizations considered Idaho a solid red state; a sparsely-populated Mountain state with an overwhelmingly-White populace and an evangelical predominance, Idaho is one of the most staunchly conservative states in the U.S., with the only Democratic presidential candidate to carry the state after Harry Truman in 1948 being landslide winner Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, and Republicans having never won the state's electoral votes by less than 13% since.

As expected, Republican Donald Trump overwhelmingly won Idaho, taking 66.9% of the vote to Democrat Kamala Harris' 30.4% and winning the state by 36.5%, well above his 30.8% in 2020 and his 31.8% in 2016, and the widest presidential margin of victory in Idaho since George W. Bush's 38.1% in 2004. Idaho was Trump's third strongest state nationwide, only behind West Virginia and neighboring Wyoming.

Primary elections

The Idaho Legislature passed HB 138 during the 2023 legislative session, resulting in the elimination of the state-ran primary for all parties. The legislature did not restore the state-ran primary by the October 1 deadline, and both the major parties in the state opted to operate and fund firehouse nominations for president.[2]

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 Idaho Republican presidential primary

The Idaho Republican primary was held on March 2, 2024, alongside primaries in Hawaii, Mississippi, Missouri, and Washington.

Idaho Republican caucus, March 2, 2024[3][4]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 33,603 84.89% 32 0 32
Nikki Haley 5,221 13.18% 0 0 0
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) 534 1.35% 0 0 0
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) 95 0.24% 0 0 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 91 0.23% 0 0 0
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) 40 0.10% 0 0 0
Total 39,584 100.00% 32 0 32

Democratic caucuses

Main article: 2024 Idaho Democratic presidential caucuses

The Idaho Democratic presidential caucuses were held on May 23, 2024.

Idaho Democratic caucus, May 23, 2024[5]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Pledged Unpledged Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 2,297 95.2% 23
Marianne Williamson 79 3.3%
Dean Phillips (withdrawn) 14 0.6%
David Olscamp 14 0.6%
Jason Palmer (withdrawn) 5 0.2%
Armando Perez-Serrato 3 0.1%
Total: 2,412 100.0% 23 4 27

General election

Candidates

The official list of certified candidates was finalized by Idaho secretary of state Phil McGrane on September 4, 2024, with the following nine candidates qualifying:[6]

Despite Terry being the nominee of the national Constitution Party, the state party dissented and chose to nominate Joel Skousen. Terry then petitioned to appear on the ballot as an independent candidate.[7]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[8] Solid R December 19, 2023
Inside Elections[9] Solid R April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] Safe R June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[11] Safe R December 14, 2023
CNalysis[12] Solid R December 30, 2023
CNN[13] Solid R January 14, 2024
The Economist[14] Safe R June 12, 2024
538[15] Solid R June 11, 2024
RCP[16] Solid R June 26, 2024
NBC News[17] Safe R October 6, 2024

Polling

Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
July 21, 2024 Joe Biden withdraws from the race.
John Zogby Strategies[18][A] April 13–21, 2024 309 (LV) – 60% 30% 10%
Emerson College[19] October 1–4, 2023 490 (RV) ± 4.4% 55% 26% 19%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[18][A] April 13–21, 2024 309 (LV) – 54% 32% 14%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[18][A] April 13–21, 2024 309 (LV) – 60% 25% 15%

Results

2024 United States presidential election in Idaho[20]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican
605,246 66.87% Increase 3.03%
Democratic
274,972 30.38% Decrease 2.69%
Independent
12,812 1.42% N/A
Libertarian
4,462 0.49% Decrease 1.40%
Green
2,973 0.33% Increase 0.28%
Constitution
1,577 0.17% Decrease 0.05%
Socialism and Liberation
1,230 0.14% Increase 0.13%
Independent
1,026 0.11% N/A
Independent
514 0.1% N/A
American Solidarity Peter Sonski (write-in)
Lauren Onak (write-in) 		242 0.03% Increase 0.01%
Independent Other
(write-in) 		3 0.00% Steady
Total votes 905,057 100.00% N/A

By county

County Donald Trump
Republican 		Kamala Harris
Democratic 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Ada 143,759 53.76% 116,116 43.42% 7,544 2.82% 27,643 10.34% 267,419
Adams 2,037 75.98% 577 21.52% 67 2.50% 1,460 54.46% 2,681
Bannock 24,329 60.86% 14,306 35.79% 1,341 3.35% 10,023 25.07% 39,976
Bear Lake 2,908 87.46% 346 10.41% 71 2.13% 2,562 77.05% 3,325
Benewah 4,094 79.57% 935 18.17% 116 2.26% 3,159 61.40% 5,145
Bingham 16,188 78.39% 3,878 18.78% 585 2.83% 12,310 59.61% 20,651
Blaine 4,281 32.71% 8,424 64.36% 384 2.93% -4,143 -31.65% 13,089
Boise 3,727 75.91% 1,065 21.69% 118 2.40% 2,662 54.22% 4,910
Bonner 21,352 71.87% 7,650 25.75% 708 2.38% 13,702 46.12% 29,710
Bonneville 40,053 70.97% 14,458 25.62% 1,925 3.41% 25,595 45.35% 56,436
Boundary 5,794 81.49% 1,145 16.10% 171 2.41% 4,649 65.39% 7,110
Butte 1,268 84.87% 185 12.38% 41 2.75% 1,083 72.49% 1,494
Camas 547 75.14% 153 21.02% 28 3.84% 394 54.12% 728
Canyon 72,755 72.01% 25,669 25.41% 2,606 2.58% 47,086 46.60% 101,030
Caribou 2,906 84.09% 445 12.88% 105 3.03% 2,461 71.21% 3,456
Cassia 7,959 83.27% 1,359 14.22% 240 2.51% 6,600 69.05% 9,558
Clark 280 84.08% 50 15.02% 3 0.90% 230 69.06% 333
Clearwater 3,550 80.32% 774 17.51% 96 2.17% 2,776 62.81% 4,420
Custer 1,998 75.40% 586 22.11% 66 2.49% 1,412 53.29% 2,650
Elmore 7,791 73.00% 2,611 24.47% 270 2.53% 5,180 48.53% 10,672
Franklin 6,279 87.40% 703 9.79% 202 2.81% 5,576 77.61% 7,184
Fremont 5,645 82.98% 954 14.02% 204 3.00% 4,691 68.96% 6,803
Gem 8,707 81.99% 1,699 16.00% 214 2.01% 7,008 65.99% 10,620
Gooding 4,676 79.01% 1,100 18.59% 142 2.40% 3,576 60.42% 5,918
Idaho 8,148 82.58% 1,460 14.80% 259 2.62% 6,688 67.78% 9,867
Jefferson 13,481 85.21% 1,891 11.95% 448 2.84% 11,590 73.26% 15,820
Jerome 6,012 75.66% 1,742 21.92% 192 2.42% 4,270 53.74% 7,946
Kootenai 72,059 74.78% 22,113 22.95% 2,193 2.27% 49,946 51.83% 96,365
Latah 10,669 52.15% 9,039 44.18% 750 3.67% 1,630 7.97% 20,458
Lemhi 3,716 76.24% 1,038 21.30% 120 2.46% 2,678 54.94% 4,874
Lewis 1,503 81.46% 305 16.53% 37 2.01% 1,198 64.93% 1,845
Lincoln 1,466 76.47% 392 20.45% 59 3.08% 1,074 56.02% 1,917
Madison 13,925 80.20% 2,767 15.94% 671 3.86% 11,158 64.26% 17,363
Minidoka 6,401 80.54% 1,373 17.27% 174 2.19% 5,028 63.27% 7,948
Nez Perce 13,707 68.08% 5,928 29.44% 500 2.48% 7,779 38.64% 20,135
Oneida 2,119 86.24% 253 10.30% 85 3.46% 1,866 75.94% 2,457
Owyhee 4,101 82.85% 756 15.27% 93 1.88% 3,345 67.58% 4,950
Payette 9,458 80.42% 2,064 17.55% 239 2.03% 7,394 62.87% 11,761
Power 2,146 71.04% 785 25.98% 90 2.98% 1,361 45.06% 3,021
Shoshone 4,500 73.39% 1,472 24.01% 160 2.60% 3,028 49.38% 6,132
Teton 3,005 44.86% 3,463 51.70% 230 3.44% -458 -6.84% 6,698
Twin Falls 27,304 73.04% 9,064 24.25% 1,015 2.71% 18,240 48.79% 37,383
Valley 4,214 58.20% 2,869 39.63% 157 2.17% 1,345 18.57% 7,240
Washington 4,429 79.73% 1,010 18.18% 116 2.09% 3,419 61.55% 5,555
Totals 605,246 66.87% 274,972 30.38% 24,835 2.75% 330,274 36.49% 905,053

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Trump won both congressional districts.[21][user-generated source]

District Trump Harris Representative
1st 71.30% 26.24% Russ Fulcher
2nd 61.84% 35.12% Mike Simpson

Analysis

Trump flipped the Panhandle county of Latah, anchored by the college town of Moscow, becoming the first Republican to win the county since Bush in 2004; and with nearly an 8% margin of victory, having the best showing for a presidential candidate there since Bush's 16.3% in 2000. He also became the first presidential Republican to win Ada County — home to the state capital and largest city Boise — by a double-digit margin since Mitt Romney in 2012, and the first to ever win the White House without winning Teton County since it was established in 1915.

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b c Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ a b Listed on the ballot without party affiliation.
  3. ^ Replacement for Butch Ware, Stein's vice presidential nominee.
  4. ^ a b Randall Terry was nominated by the national Constitution Party, though the state party nominated Joel Skousen.

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign

References

  1. ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
  2. ^ Corbin, Clark (October 16, 2023). "Idaho will have a presidential caucus in 2024 — not a primary. Here's how they differ. • Idaho Capital Sun". Idaho Capital Sun. Retrieved July 15, 2024.
  3. ^ "Declared 2024 Republican Presidential Candidates". Idaho Republican Party. Retrieved December 8, 2023.[failed verification]
  4. ^ "Idaho primary results". Associated Press. March 2, 2024. Retrieved March 2, 2024.
  5. ^ "Idaho Democratic Caucus Results". NY Times. Retrieved May 23, 2024.
  6. ^ Corbin, Clark (September 4, 2024). "Nine presidential candidates qualify for Idaho's 2024 general election ballot". States Newsroom. Retrieved September 9, 2024.
  7. ^ Pruett, Greg (August 5, 2024). "Constitution Party of Idaho Holds Convention, Selects Presidential Nominee". Idaho Dispatch. Retrieved September 9, 2024.
  8. ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  9. ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  10. ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  11. ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  12. ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  13. ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  14. ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
  15. ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
  16. ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
  17. ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
  18. ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  19. ^ Mumford, Camille (October 11, 2023). "Idaho 2024 Poll: Housing Affordability is a 'Big Problem' in the Gem State". Emerson Polling.
  20. ^ "Canvass Report" (PDF). VoteIdaho.Gov. November 26, 2024. Retrieved November 30, 2024.
  21. ^ "2024 Pres by CD".