2024 United States presidential election in Mississippi

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election
2024 United States presidential election in Mississippi
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
 
Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida California
Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz
Electoral vote 6 0
Popular vote 747,744 466,668
Percentage 60.89% 38.00%
President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

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The 2024 United States presidential election in Mississippi took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Mississippi voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. Mississippi's six votes in the Electoral College were unaffected by reapportionment after the 2020 United States census.[1]

Donald Trump ran on the Republican ballot for a third consecutive time. He easily handled Mississippi in the past two election cycles, winning the state by 17.8% in 2016 and again by 16.5% four years later. Before the election, most news organizations considered Mississippi a safe win for Trump.

Receiving 60.9% of the vote, Trump improved in Mississippi, a state in the core of the Deep South where the White and Black votes are extremely polarized. He flipped several counties that are majority or plurality Black, reflecting turnout from Black voters likely declining from 2020, while also shifting to Trump. Trump remained very strong with the White voters across the state.

Background

Incumbent Democratic President Joe Biden initially ran for re-election and became the party's presumptive nominee.[2] However, following what was widely viewed as a poor performance in the June 2024 presidential debate and amid increasing age and health concerns from within his party, he withdrew from the race on July 21 and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day. Biden's withdrawal from the race makes him the first eligible president not to stand for re-election since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968.

Primary elections

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 Mississippi Republican presidential primary

The Mississippi Republican primary was held on March 12, 2024, alongside primaries in Hawaii, Idaho, Missouri, and Washington. 40 delegates to the Republican National Convention will be allocated to presidential candidates.[3]

Mississippi Republican primary, March 12, 2024[4]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 229,198 92.50% 40 0 40
Nikki Haley (withdrawn) 13,437 5.42% 0 0 0
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) 4,042 1.63% 0 0 0
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) 1,096 0.44% 0 0 0
Total: 247,773 100.00% 40 0 40

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 Mississippi Democratic presidential primary

The 2024 Mississippi Democratic presidential primary was held on March 12, 2024, alongside the Democrats Abroad, Georgia, Mississippi, and Washington primaries, and Northern Mariana Islands caucuses. 40 delegates to the Democratic National Convention will be allocated to presidential candidates.[5]

In Mississippi, candidates have to pay a filing fee of $2,500 and gather at least 500 signatures to make the primary ballot.[6] Incumbent President Joe Biden won the primary, being the only candidate that met these requirements.[7][better source needed]

Winner

Results

Mississippi Democratic primary, March 12, 2024[8]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 87,922 98.7% 35
Write-in votes 1,187 1.3%
Total: 89,109 100.00% 35 35


General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[9] Solid R December 19, 2023
Inside Elections[10] Solid R April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[11] Safe R June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[12] Safe R December 14, 2023
CNalysis[13] Solid R December 30, 2023
CNN[14] Solid R January 14, 2024
The Economist[15] Safe R June 12, 2024
538[16] Solid R September 20, 2024
RCP[17] Solid R June 26, 2024
NBC News[18] Safe R October 6, 2024
YouGov[19] Likely R November 1, 2024
Split Ticket[20] Safe R November 1, 2024

Polling

Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[21][A] April 13–21, 2024 423 (LV) – 51% 42% 7%
Echelon Insights[22][B] August 31 – September 7, 2022 409 (LV) ± 7.8% 54% 36% 10%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[21][A] April 13–21, 2024 423 (LV) – 50% 37% 13%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[21][A] April 13–21, 2024 423 (LV) – 52% 35% 13%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Ron
DeSantis
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
Echelon Insights[22][B] August 31 – September 7, 2022 409 (LV) ± 7.8% 49% 37% 14%

Early voting

A study by the Center for Election Innovation & Research in July 2024 found that Mississippi is one of only three remaining states (along with Alabama and New Hampshire) to offer no early in-person voting option for the 2024 general election. The state also requires an eligible reason to vote by mail.[23]

Results

2024 United States presidential election in Mississippi[24]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican
747,744 60.89% +3.29%
Democratic
466,668 38.00% −3.06%
Independent
5,387 0.44% N/A
Libertarian
2,536 0.21% −0.40%
Green
1,873 0.15% +0.04%
Socialism and Liberation
1,075 0.09% N/A
Constitution
1,030 0.08% N/A
American Solidarity
1,007 0.08% −0.01%
Independent
688 0.06% N/A
Total votes 1,228,008 100.00% N/A

By county

County Donald Trump
Republican 		Kamala Harris
Democratic 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Adams 5,081 42.60% 6,743 56.53% 104 0.87% -1,662 -13.93% 11,928
Alcorn 12,657 83.75% 2,328 15.40% 127 0.85% 10,329 68.35% 15,112
Amite 4,484 65.80% 2,246 32.96% 85 1.24% 2,238 32.84% 6,815
Attala 4,723 61.31% 2,930 38.04% 50 0.65% 1,793 23.27% 7,703
Benton 2,535 65.27% 1,318 33.93% 31 0.80% 1,217 31.34% 3,884
Bolivar 3,943 37.79% 6,419 61.51% 73 0.70% -2,476 -23.72% 10,435
Calhoun 4,443 73.63% 1,547 25.64% 44 0.73% 2,896 47.99% 6,034
Carroll 3,730 71.81% 1,431 27.55% 33 0.64% 2,299 44.26% 5,194
Chickasaw 4,079 56.39% 3,090 42.71% 65 0.90% 989 13.68% 7,234
Choctaw 2,881 74.06% 965 24.81% 44 1.13% 1,916 49.25% 3,890
Claiborne 558 15.76% 2,950 83.31% 33 0.93% -2,392 -67.55% 3,541
Clarke 5,093 67.27% 2,430 32.10% 48 0.63% 2,663 35.17% 7,571
Clay 4,017 44.35% 4,960 54.76% 80 0.89% -943 -10.41% 9,057
Coahoma 2,008 29.57% 4,711 69.38% 71 1.05% -2,703 -39.81% 6,790
Copiah 6,134 52.58% 5,426 46.52% 105 0.90% 708 6.06% 11,665
Covington 5,869 66.23% 2,921 32.96% 71 0.81% 2,948 33.27% 8,861
DeSoto 48,064 60.65% 29,023 36.62% 2,167 2.73% 19,041 24.03% 79,254
Forrest 16,579 58.24% 11,475 40.31% 412 1.45% 5,104 17.93% 28,466
Franklin 2,831 69.63% 1,213 29.83% 22 0.54% 1,618 39.80% 4,066
George 9,858 89.06% 1,138 10.28% 73 0.66% 8,720 78.78% 11,069
Greene 4,776 84.55% 835 14.78% 38 0.67% 3,941 69.77% 5,649
Grenada 5,651 57.86% 4,060 41.57% 55 0.57% 1,591 16.29% 9,766
Hancock 16,684 78.79% 4,262 20.13% 229 1.08% 12,422 58.66% 21,175
Harrison 48,497 63.88% 26,555 34.98% 871 1.14% 21,942 28.90% 75,923
Hinds 22,816 26.19% 62,840 72.12% 1,472 1.69% -40,024 -45.93% 87,128
Holmes 1,243 18.47% 5,420 80.53% 67 1.00% -4,177 -62.06% 6,730
Humphreys 990 28.55% 2,443 70.44% 35 1.01% -1,453 -41.89% 3,468
Issaquena 296 47.59% 287 46.14% 39 6.27% 9 1.45% 622
Itawamba 9,523 89.66% 1,027 9.67% 71 0.67% 8,496 79.99% 10,621
Jackson 36,376 69.29% 15,469 29.47% 652 1.24% 20,907 39.82% 52,497
Jasper 4,118 52.19% 3,722 47.17% 50 0.64% 396 5.02% 7,890
Jefferson 541 16.40% 2,727 82.66% 31 0.94% -2,186 -66.26% 3,299
Jefferson Davis 2,302 42.80% 3,041 56.55% 35 0.65% -739 -13.75% 5,378
Jones 20,265 73.01% 7,272 26.20% 218 0.79% 12,993 46.81% 27,755
Kemper 1,691 41.39% 2,381 58.27% 14 0.34% -690 -16.88% 4,086
Lafayette 14,050 60.02% 8,956 38.26% 403 1.72% 5,094 21.76% 23,409
Lamar 20,775 73.51% 7,038 24.90% 449 1.59% 13,737 48.61% 28,262
Lauderdale 16,487 60.16% 10,677 38.96% 243 0.88% 5,810 21.20% 27,407
Lawrence 4,113 67.95% 1,899 31.37% 41 0.68% 2,214 36.58% 6,053
Leake 5,143 61.37% 3,182 37.97% 55 0.66% 1,961 23.40% 8,380
Lee 24,339 68.87% 10,616 30.04% 383 1.09% 13,723 38.83% 35,338
Leflore 2,854 30.29% 6,476 68.74% 91 0.97% -3,622 -38.45% 9,421
Lincoln 11,432 72.35% 4,262 26.97% 108 0.68% 7,170 45.38% 15,802
Lowndes 13,087 53.58% 11,096 45.43% 243 0.99% 1,991 8.15% 24,426
Madison 32,333 57.80% 22,700 40.58% 902 1.62% 9,633 17.22% 55,935
Marion 7,874 70.25% 3,215 28.68% 119 1.07% 4,659 41.57% 11,208
Marshall 7,977 53.24% 6,888 45.97% 118 0.79% 1,089 7.27% 14,983
Monroe 10,861 67.59% 5,090 31.68% 118 0.73% 5,771 35.91% 16,069
Montgomery 2,658 60.08% 1,737 39.26% 29 0.66% 921 20.82% 4,424
Neshoba 8,154 74.99% 2,622 24.11% 97 0.90% 5,532 50.88% 10,873
Newton 6,641 71.23% 2,603 27.92% 79 0.85% 4,038 43.31% 9,323
Noxubee 1,151 25.87% 3,269 73.48% 29 0.65% -2,118 -47.61% 4,449
Oktibbeha 8,901 49.13% 8,851 48.86% 364 2.01% 50 0.27% 18,116
Panola 8,202 56.87% 6,061 42.03% 159 1.10% 2,141 14.84% 14,422
Pearl River 20,438 82.74% 3,982 16.12% 281 1.14% 16,456 66.62% 24,701
Perry 4,425 79.89% 1,078 19.46% 36 0.65% 3,347 60.43% 5,539
Pike 7,943 51.18% 7,402 47.70% 174 1.12% 541 3.48% 15,519
Pontotoc 11,740 83.45% 2,214 15.74% 114 0.81% 9,526 67.71% 14,068
Prentiss 8,581 82.66% 1,727 16.64% 73 0.70% 6,854 66.02% 10,381
Quitman 902 33.69% 1,725 64.44% 50 1.87% -823 -30.75% 2,677
Rankin 50,896 72.83% 18,060 25.84% 931 1.33% 32,836 46.99% 69,887
Scott 6,098 61.65% 3,729 37.70% 64 0.65% 2,369 23.95% 9,891
Sharkey 551 31.20% 1,201 68.01% 14 0.79% -650 -36.81% 1,766
Simpson 7,552 68.07% 3,479 31.36% 63 0.57% 4,073 36.71% 11,094
Smith 6,146 80.07% 1,486 19.36% 44 0.57% 4,660 60.71% 7,676
Stone 6,214 78.47% 1,620 20.46% 85 1.07% 4,594 58.01% 7,919
Sunflower 2,515 31.93% 5,312 67.45% 49 0.62% -2,797 -35.52% 7,876
Tallahatchie 2,333 46.55% 2,630 52.47% 49 0.98% -297 -5.92% 5,012
Tate 9,185 71.42% 3,555 27.64% 121 0.94% 5,630 43.78% 12,861
Tippah 7,984 83.24% 1,547 16.13% 60 0.63% 6,437 67.11% 9,591
Tishomingo 8,064 89.10% 921 10.18% 65 0.72% 7,143 78.92% 9,050
Tunica 799 29.95% 1,837 68.85% 32 1.20% -1,038 -38.90% 2,668
Union 10,559 84.62% 1,807 14.48% 112 0.90% 8,752 70.14% 12,478
Walthall 4,114 63.01% 2,355 36.07% 60 0.92% 1,759 26.94% 6,529
Warren 9,407 51.41% 8,683 47.45% 208 1.14% 724 3.96% 18,298
Washington 4,649 31.97% 9,735 66.95% 156 1.08% -5,086 -34.98% 14,540
Wayne 6,013 65.94% 3,028 33.21% 78 0.85% 2,985 32.73% 9,119
Webster 4,195 82.34% 872 17.11% 28 0.55% 3,323 65.23% 5,095
Wilkinson 1,075 36.68% 1,817 61.99% 39 1.33% -742 -25.31% 2,931
Winston 4,922 58.71% 3,392 40.46% 70 0.83% 1,530 18.25% 8,384
Yalobusha 3,518 59.85% 2,289 38.94% 71 1.21% 1,229 20.91% 5,878
Yazoo 4,558 50.81% 4,342 48.40% 71 0.79% 216 2.41% 8,971
Totals 747,744 60.83% 466,668 37.96% 14,843 1.21% 281,076 22.87% 1,229,255

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Trump won 3 of 4 congressional districts.[25][user-generated source]

District Trump Harris Representative
1st 67.85% 30.82% Trent Kelly
2nd 39.29% 59.68% Bennie Thompson
3rd 63.68% 34.49% Michael Guest
4th 70.72% 28.19% Mike Ezell

Analysis

Though Mississippi has voted to the left of its bordering states in recent presidential elections, owing mainly to its large African-American minority, the state is located in the Deep South and therefore the Bible Belt. One of the most socially conservative states in the nation, it has not been won by a Democratic presidential candidate since Southerner Jimmy Carter's narrow statewide victory in 1976, nor has it been competitive at this level since Bill Clinton of neighboring Arkansas fell five points short of carrying the state in 1996.

Trump received 60.9% of the vote in Mississippi, winning the state by a 22.9% margin. This marked the first time since 1984 that a Republican surpassed the 60% threshold in the state. He flipped several majority-Black counties: Copiah, Pike, and Yazoo Counties, which had not supported a Republican in a presidential race since 2004; Jasper County, which had last done so in 2000; and Issaquena County, which last did so in 1984. Trump also flipped plurality-White Marshall County, last won by a Republican in 1972, and plurality-Black Warren County, which Trump last won in 2016. He also flipped Oktibbeha County, home to Mississippi State University, which had last voted for a Republican in 2004.

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ a b Listed on the ballot without party affiliation.

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
  2. ^ a b Poll sponsored by NetChoice

References

  1. ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
  2. ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC. Retrieved November 19, 2024.
  3. ^ "Mississippi Republican Presidential Nominating Process". thegreenpapers.com. March 5, 2023. Retrieved February 6, 2023.
  4. ^ "Mississippi Presidential Primary". The AP. May 2, 2024. Retrieved May 9, 2024.
  5. ^ "Mississippi Democratic Delegation 2024". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved October 11, 2023.
  6. ^ "Ballot access for presidential candidates". Ballotpedia. Retrieved January 20, 2024.
  7. ^ "2024 Candidate Qualifying List 1.15.2024" (PDF). Mississippi Secretary of State. January 15, 2024. Retrieved January 17, 2024.
  8. ^ "Mississippi Presidential Primary Election Results 2024". NBC News. Retrieved March 12, 2024.
  9. ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  10. ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  11. ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  12. ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  13. ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  14. ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  15. ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
  16. ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved September 23, 2024.
  17. ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
  18. ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
  19. ^ "2024 Presidential Election Polls". YouGov.
  20. ^ "2024 Presidential Forcast". Split Ticket. June 2, 2023.
  21. ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  22. ^ a b Chavez, Krista (September 13, 2022). "New National Poll: 89% of Americans Say Congress Should Focus on Addressing Inflation, Not Breaking Up Tech". NetChoice.
  23. ^ "The Expansion of Voting Before Election Day, 2000–2024". The Center for Election Innovation & Research. Retrieved September 7, 2024.
  24. ^ "Certification of Vote for Electors for President and Vice President" (PDF). MS SOS. Retrieved December 28, 2024.
  25. ^ "2024 Pres by CD".