2024 United States presidential election in Arkansas

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election
2024 United States presidential election in Arkansas
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
Turnout65.10% Decrease 1.80%
 
Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida California
Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz
Electoral vote 6 0
Popular vote 759,241 396,905
Percentage 64.20% 33.56%
President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

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The 2024 United States presidential election in Arkansas took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Arkansas voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Arkansas has six electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]

Trump easily carried the state for the third time in a row in 2024, this time by a 30.64% margin.[2]

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 Arkansas Democratic presidential primary

The Arkansas Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Arkansas Democratic primary, March 5, 2024[3]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 71,978 88.5% 31
Marianne Williamson 3,883 4.8%
Dean Phillips 2,346 2.9%
Stephen Lyons 1,442 1.8%
Armando Perez-Serrato 879 1.1%
Frankie Lozada 786 1.0%
Total: 81,314 100.00% 37 37


Republican primary

Main article: 2024 Arkansas Republican presidential primary

The Arkansas Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Arkansas Republican primary, March 5, 2024[4][5]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 204,898 76.89% 39 39
Nikki Haley 49,085 18.42% 1 1
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) 7,377 2.77%
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) 3,162 1.19%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) 860 0.32%
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 600 0.23%
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) 183 0.07%
Doug Burgum (withdrawn) 157 0.06%
David Stuckenberg 151 0.06%
Total: 266,473 100.00% 40 40

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[6] Solid R December 19, 2023
Inside Elections[7] Solid R April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[8] Safe R June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[9] Safe R December 14, 2023
CNalysis[10] Solid R December 30, 2023
CNN[11] Solid R January 14, 2024
The Economist[12] Safe R June 12, 2024
538[13] Solid R June 11, 2024
RCP[14] Solid R June 26, 2024
NBC News[15] Safe R October 6, 2024

Polling

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Other /
Undecided
Hendrix College[16][A] September 5–6, 2024 696 (RV) ± 4.6% 55% 40% 1% – 0% 1% 1%
Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
July 21, 2024 Joe Biden withdraws from the race.
John Zogby Strategies[17][B] April 13–21, 2024 385 (LV) – 48% 42% 10%
Emerson College[18] October 1–4, 2023 435 (RV) ± 4.7% 57% 24% 19%
Echelon Insights[19][C] August 31 – September 7, 2022 600 (LV) ± 7.7% 58% 33% 9%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[17][B] April 13–21, 2024 385 (LV) – 44% 42% 14%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[17][B] April 13–21, 2024 385 (LV) – 53% 35% 12%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Ron
DeSantis
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
Echelon Insights[19][C] August 31 – September 7, 2022 600 (LV) ± 7.7% 49% 31% 20%

Results

2024 United States presidential election in Arkansas[20]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican
759,241 64.20% +1.80%
Democratic
396,905 33.56% −1.22%
Independent
13,255 1.12% N/A
Libertarian
5,715 0.48% −0.60%
Green
4,275 0.36% +0.12%
American Solidarity
2,141 0.18% +0.04%
Prohibition
  • Michael Wood
  • John Pietrowski
 1,144 0.10% N/A
Total votes 1,182,676 100.00% N/A

By county

County Donald Trump
Republican 		Kamala Harris
Democratic 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Arkansas 3,951 71.23% 1,503 27.10% 93 1.68% 2,448 44.13% 5,547
Ashley 5,145 73.19% 1,774 25.23% 111 1.58% 3,371 47.96% 7,030
Baxter 16,253 77.57% 4,341 20.72% 360 1.72% 11,912 56.85% 20,954
Benton 79,907 62.14% 45,231 35.17% 3,457 2.69% 34,676 26.97% 128,595
Boone 13,968 81.63% 2,854 16.68% 290 1.69% 11,114 64.95% 17,112
Bradley 2,213 68.96% 961 29.95% 35 1.09% 1,252 39.01% 3,209
Calhoun 1,674 80.02% 379 18.12% 39 1.86% 1,295 61.90% 2,092
Carroll 7,470 64.74% 3,812 33.04% 256 2.22% 3,658 31.70% 11,538
Chicot 1,658 47.51% 1,796 51.46% 36 1.03% -138 -3.95% 3,490
Clark 4,526 59.11% 2,959 38.64% 172 2.25% 1,567 20.47% 7,657
Clay 3,968 79.89% 907 18.26% 92 1.85% 3,061 61.63% 4,967
Cleburne 10,595 83.17% 1,941 15.24% 203 1.59% 8,654 67.93% 12,739
Cleveland 2,804 83.11% 521 15.53% 46 1.36% 2,280 67.58% 3,374
Columbia 5,367 67.59% 2,466 31.06% 107 1.35% 2,901 36.53% 7,940
Conway 5,893 69.00% 2,449 28.67% 199 2.33% 3,444 40.33% 8,541
Craighead 25,152 67.54% 11,210 30.10% 880 2.36% 13,942 37.44% 37,242
Crawford 18,615 78.10% 4,753 19.94% 466 1.96% 13,862 58.16% 23,834
Crittenden 7,028 47.87% 7,362 50.15% 291 1.98% -334 -2.28% 14,681
Cross 4,753 72.74% 1,642 25.13% 139 2.13% 3,111 47.61% 6,534
Dallas 1,482 63.77% 798 34.34% 44 1.89% 684 29.43% 2,324
Desha 1,805 51.50% 1,638 46.73% 62 1.77% 167 4.77% 3,505
Drew 4,203 66.03% 2,050 32.21% 112 1.76% 2,153 33.82% 6,365
Faulkner 35,357 64.92% 17,752 32.59% 1,356 2.49% 17,605 32.33% 54,465
Franklin 5,582 80.07% 1,232 17.67% 157 2.25% 4,350 62.40% 6,971
Fulton 4,040 80.11% 906 17.97% 97 1.92% 3,134 62.14% 5,043
Garland 28,359 67.00% 13,015 30.75% 953 2.25% 15,344 36.25% 42,327
Grant 6,755 83.62% 1,192 14.76% 131 1.62% 5,563 68.86% 8,078
Greene 12,617 79.75% 2,935 18.55% 268 1.69% 9,682 61.20% 15,820
Hempstead 4,193 68.86% 1,776 29.17% 120 1.97% 2,417 39.69% 6,089
Hot Spring 9,226 75.11% 2,818 22.94% 239 1.95% 6,408 52.17% 12,283
Howard 3,246 72.57% 1,158 25.89% 69 1.54% 2,088 46.68% 4,473
Independence 11,023 78.67% 2,689 19.19% 299 2.13% 8,334 59.48% 14,011
Izard 4,854 81.92% 949 16.02% 122 2.06% 3,905 65.90% 5,925
Jackson 3,509 73.49% 1,183 24.77% 83 1.74% 2,326 48.72% 4,775
Jefferson 8,468 39.19% 12,802 59.25% 338 1.56% -4,334 -20.06% 21,608
Johnson 6,766 74.69% 2,107 23.26% 186 2.05% 4,659 51.43% 9,059
Lafayette 1,589 68.34% 698 30.02% 38 1.63% 891 38.32% 2,325
Lawrence 4,608 80.96% 965 16.95% 119 2.09% 3,643 64.01% 5,692
Lee 1,181 46.87% 1,270 50.40% 69 2.74% -89 -3.53% 2,520
Lincoln 2,502 74.20% 813 24.11% 57 1.69% 1,689 50.09% 3,372
Little River 3,744 76.42% 1,084 22.13% 71 1.45% 2,660 54.29% 4,899
Logan 6,567 80.04% 1,464 17.84% 174 2.12% 5,103 62.20% 8,205
Lonoke 23,225 75.85% 6,790 22.18% 605 1.98% 16,435 53.67% 30,620
Madison 5,885 78.46% 1,491 19.88% 125 1.67% 4,394 58.58% 7,501
Marion 6,230 79.35% 1,501 19.12% 120 1.53% 4,729 60.23% 7,851
Miller 11,842 74.94% 3,769 23.85% 192 1.21% 8,073 51.09% 15,803
Mississippi 6,963 64.97% 3,574 33.35% 180 1.68% 3,389 31.62% 10,717
Monroe 1,385 56.93% 1,002 41.18% 46 1.89% 383 15.75% 2,433
Montgomery 2,987 80.58% 645 17.40% 75 2.02% 2,342 63.18% 3,707
Nevada 2,002 68.87% 849 29.21% 56 1.93% 1,153 39.66% 2,907
Newton 3,063 81.25% 644 17.08% 63 1.67% 2,419 64.17% 3,770
Ouachita 5,056 58.61% 3,412 39.55% 158 1.83% 1,644 19.06% 8,626
Perry 3,559 77.64% 923 20.14% 102 2.23% 2,636 57.50% 4,584
Phillips 2,098 42.49% 2,754 55.77% 86 1.74% -656 -13.28% 4,938
Pike 3,746 85.96% 560 12.85% 52 1.19% 3,186 73.11% 4,358
Poinsett 5,731 80.96% 1,235 17.45% 113 1.60% 4,496 63.51% 7,079
Polk 6,987 84.30% 1,145 13.82% 156 1.88% 5,842 70.48% 8,288
Pope 18,118 74.90% 5,487 22.68% 586 2.42% 12,631 52.22% 24,191
Prairie 2,628 82.13% 524 16.38% 48 1.50% 2,104 65.75% 3,200
Pulaski 57,977 37.67% 92,038 59.79% 3,909 2.54% -34,061 -22.12% 153,924
Randolph 5,367 80.88% 1,138 17.15% 131 1.97% 4,229 63.73% 6,636
St. Francis 2,909 48.65% 2,953 49.39% 117 1.96% -44 -0.74% 5,979
Saline 39,736 68.98% 16,609 28.83% 1,264 2.19% 23,127 40.15% 57,609
Scott 2,913 86.08% 425 12.56% 46 1.36% 2,488 73.42% 3,384
Searcy 3,305 85.42% 511 13.21% 53 1.37% 2,794 72.21% 3,869
Sebastian 30,719 67.59% 13,652 30.04% 1,081 2.38% 17,067 37.55% 45,452
Sevier 3,772 80.02% 862 18.29% 80 1.70% 2,910 61.73% 4,714
Sharp 5,978 80.38% 1,316 17.70% 143 1.92% 4,662 62.68% 7,437
Stone 4,808 79.73% 1,089 18.06% 133 2.21% 3,719 61.67% 6,030
Union 10,196 66.00% 5,019 32.49% 233 1.51% 5,177 33.51% 15,448
Van Buren 6,023 79.03% 1,437 18.86% 161 2.11% 4,586 60.17% 7,621
Washington 50,243 51.71% 43,779 45.06% 3,136 3.23% 6,464 6.65% 97,158
White 24,514 79.50% 5,641 18.29% 682 2.21% 18,873 61.21% 30,837
Woodruff 1,513 65.27% 760 32.79% 45 1.94% 753 32.48% 2,318
Yell 5,147 79.47% 1,213 18.73% 117 1.81% 3,934 60.74% 6,477
Totals 759,241 64.20% 396,905 33.56% 26,530 2.24% 362,336 30.64% 1,182,676

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Trump won all four congressional districts.[21][user-generated source]

District Trump Harris Representative
1st 71.71% 26.37% Rick Crawford
2nd 56.60% 40.99% French Hill
3rd 61.09% 36.18% Steve Womack
4th 69.05% 29.11% Bruce Westerman

Analysis

Although former Democratic President Bill Clinton hails from the state and comfortably won it in both of his election bids in 1992 and 1996, Arkansas is a Southern state in the Bible Belt that has trended strongly towards the Republican Party in the 21st century, with Al Gore (from neighboring Tennessee) losing the state in 2000 by 5.45%. The last Democratic presidential candidate to come within single digits of carrying Arkansas, or even win more than 40% of the state vote, was John Kerry in 2004. The state's rightward shift continued under Barack Obama, leading to Arkansas becoming a Republican stronghold at the presidential level. In 2008, Obama became the first Democrat to win without carrying Arkansas despite decisively winning nationwide.

The GOP's popularity in Arkansas has become so pronounced that the state turned sharply against former First Lady of Arkansas Hillary Clinton in 2016, favoring Republican Donald Trump by 26.9%. Trump again easily won the state again by 27.6% in 2020. Republicans have held every statewide elected position in the state since 2015.

Trump became the first Republican to carry the Delta county of Desha in a presidential election since landslide victor Richard Nixon in 1972, when he carried every county in the state..

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d e Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

Partisan clients

  1. ^ Poll sponsored by Talk Business & Politics
  2. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
  3. ^ a b Poll sponsored by NetChoice

References

  1. ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
  2. ^ "270toWin – 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved February 5, 2024.
  3. ^ "Arkansas Democratic Primary Election Results". The New York Times. March 5, 2024. Retrieved March 6, 2024.
  4. ^ Yoon, Robert (March 3, 2024). "What to expect in Arkansas' state and presidential primaries". The AP. Retrieved March 5, 2024.
  5. ^ "Arkansas Presidential Primary". AP News. Retrieved April 5, 2024.
  6. ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  7. ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  8. ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  9. ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  10. ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  11. ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  12. ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
  13. ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
  14. ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
  15. ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News. December 17, 2024.
  16. ^ "Poll: Trump has commanding lead over Harris in Arkansas". Talk Business & Politics. September 13, 2024.
  17. ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  18. ^ "Arkansas 2024 Poll: About a Third of Arkansas Republicans Think Trump Should Choose Sanders as Running Mate". Emerson College Polling. October 15, 2023.
  19. ^ a b Chavez, Krista (September 13, 2022). "New National Poll: 89% of Americans Say Congress Should Focus on Addressing Inflation, Not Breaking Up Tech". NetChoice.
  20. ^ "2024 General Election and Nonpartisan Judicial Runoff". Arkansas Secretary of State. Retrieved November 30, 2024.
  21. ^ "2024 Pres by CD".

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