2014 California gubernatorial election

See also: 2014 United States gubernatorial elections

2014 California gubernatorial election
← 2010 November 4, 2014 2018 →
Turnout30.94% (Decrease28.65 pp)
 
Nominee Jerry Brown Neel Kashkari
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 4,388,368 2,929,213
Percentage 59.97% 40.03%
Brown:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Kashkari:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Governor before election

Jerry Brown
Democratic

Elected Governor

Jerry Brown
Democratic

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The 2014 California gubernatorial election was held on November 4, 2014, to elect the governor of California, concurrently with elections for the rest of California's executive branch, as well as elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic governor Jerry Brown ran for re-election to a second consecutive and fourth overall term in office. Although governors are limited to lifetime service of two terms in office, Brown previously served as governor from specifically 1975 to 1983, and the law only affects terms served after November 6, 1990.[1][2][3]

A primary election was held on June 3, 2014. Under California's nonpartisan blanket primary law, all candidates appear on the same ballot, regardless of party. In the primary, voters may vote for any candidate, regardless of their party affiliation. The top two finishers — regardless of party — advance to the general election in November, even if a candidate manages to receive a majority of the votes cast in the primary election. Washington is the only other state with this system, a so-called "top two primary" (Louisiana has a similar "jungle primary"). Brown and Republican Neel Kashkari finished first and second, respectively, and contested in the general election,[4] which Brown won. He won the largest gubernatorial victory since 1986, "despite running a virtually nonexistent campaign."[5] This was the first time since 1978 that a Democrat carried Nevada County.

Primary election

Republican candidate Kashkari campaigns at the San Diego LGBT Pride Parade.

A certified list of candidates was released by the secretary of state on March 27, 2014. The primary election took place on Tuesday, June 3, 2014, from 7am to 8pm.[6]

Party candidacies

Democratic Party

Declared
Withdrew
  • Geby Espinosa, gym owner
  • Hanala Sagal, author and fitness personality
  • Michael Strimling, attorney
Declined

Republican Party

Declared
Withdrew
Declined

Libertarian Party

Declined

Green Party

Declared

American Independent Party

Endorsed Tim Donnelly[28]

Withdrew

Peace and Freedom Party

Declared

Independent

Declared
  • Bogdan Ambrozewicz, small business owner, Independent candidate for the State Senate in 2012 and Republican candidate for the State Assembly in 2011[30]
  • Janel Buycks, minister/business owner[14][31]
  • Rakesh Kumar Christian, small business owner, independent candidate for governor in 2010[7]
  • Joe Leicht, golf course operator[14]
  • Robert Newman, psychologist, farmer and Republican candidate for governor in 2003, 2006, and 2010[14]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jerry
Brown (D) 		Andrew
Blount (R) 		Tim
Donnelly (R) 		Neel
Kashkari (R) 		Abel
Maldonado (R) 		Other Undecided
GQR[32] May 21–28, 2014 626 ± 4.4% 50% — 13% 18% — 5% 14%
SurveyUSA[33] May 16–19, 2014 610 ± 4% 57% — 18% 11% — 4% 10%
PPIC[34] May 8–15, 2014 901 ± 4.9% 48% — 15% 10% — 1% 27%
PPIC[35] April 8–15, 2014 944 ± 5.1% 46% 3% 9% 2% — 2% 38%
Field Poll[36] March 18–April 5, 2014 504 ± 4.5% 57% 3% 17% 2% — 1% 20%
PPIC[37] March 11–18, 2014 936 ± 4.7% 47% 2% 10% 2% — 3% 36%
Field Poll[38] November 15–December 3, 2013 836 ± 3.5% 52% — 9% 3% 11% — 25%
PPIC[39] November 12–19, 2013 1,081 ± 4.5% 46% — 16% — 7% 1% 29%
Polling with all candidates listed
Clear Path Strategies poll of 1,000 likely voters, April 2–6, 2014. MoE: ±?
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jerry Brown (incumbent) – 45.6
Republican Tim Donnelly – 18.3
Republican Glenn Champ – 7.3
Republican Andrew Blount – 5.4
Republican Alma Marie Winston – 4.1
Republican Neel Kashkari – 3.8
No party preference Robert Newman – 3.1
Democratic Akinyemi Agbede – 2.8
Green Luis J. Rodriguez – 2.6
Peace and Freedom Cindy Sheehan – 2.3
Republican Richard William Aguirre – 1.7
No party preference "Bo" Bogdan Ambrozewicz – 0.9
No party preference Janel Hyeshia Buycks – 0.8
No party preference Rakesh Kumar Christian – 0.7
No party preference Joe Leicht – 0.6
Total votes – 100

Results

Results by county:
  Donnelly ≥ 30%
  Brown ≥ 30%
  Brown ≥ 40%
  Brown ≥ 50%
  Brown ≥ 60%
  Brown ≥ 70%
  Brown ≥ 80%
California gubernatorial primary election, 2014[40]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jerry Brown (incumbent) 2,354,769 54.34%
Republican Neel Kashkari 839,767 19.38%
Republican Tim Donnelly 643,236 14.85%
Republican Andrew Blount 89,749 2.07%
Republican Glenn Champ 76,066 1.76%
Green Luis J. Rodriguez 66,872 1.54%
Peace and Freedom Cindy Sheehan 52,707 1.22%
Republican Alma Marie Winston 46,042 1.06%
No party preference Robert Newman 44,120 1.02%
Democratic Akinyemi Agbede 37,024 0.85%
Republican Richard William Aguirre 35,125 0.81%
No party preference "Bo" Bogdan Ambrozewicz 14,929 0.35%
No party preference Janel Hyeshia Buycks 12,136 0.28%
No party preference Rakesh Kumar Christian 11,142 0.26%
No party preference Joe Leicht 9,307 0.22%
Write-In Karen Jill Bernal 17 <0.01%
Write-In Nickolas Wildstar 17 <0.01%
Write-In Jimelle L. Walls 3 <0.01%
Total votes 4,333,028 100.00%
Turnout   14.67%

General election

Debates

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[41] Solid D November 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball[42] Safe D November 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report[43] Safe D November 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics[44] Safe D November 3, 2014

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jerry
Brown (D) 		Neel
Kashkari (R) 		Other Undecided
Zogby Analytics[45] October 28–31, 2014 705 ± 3.8% 51% 33% 16%
GQR/American Viewpoint[46] October 22–29, 2014 1,162 ± 3.3% 56% 37% — 7%
Field Poll[47] October 15–28, 2014 941 ± 3.4% 54% 33% — 13%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[48] October 16–23, 2014 7,463 ± 2% 55% 37% 1% 8%
PPIC[49] October 12–19, 2014 1,704 ± 3.5% 52% 36% — 12%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[48] September 20 – October 1, 2014 7,943 ± 2% 56% 36% 1% 7%
PPIC[50] September 8–15, 2014 916 ± 4.9% 54% 33% 2% 11%
LA Times/USC[51] September 2–9, 2014 1,089 ± 3.3% 57% 36% — 7%
GQR/AV[52] September 2–8, 2014 8,941 ± 2% 57% 32% — 11%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[53] August 18 – September 2, 2014 8,941 ± 2% 53% 35% 2% 10%
Field Poll[54] August 14–28, 2014 467 ± 4.8% 50% 34% — 16%
Gravis Marketing[55] July 22–24, 2014 580 ± 4% 52% 35% — 13%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[56] July 5–24, 2014 9,393 ± ? 57% 33% 3% 7%
PPIC[57] July 8–15, 2014 984 ± 4.7% 52% 33% 4% 11%
Field Poll[58] June 5–22, 2014 2,013 ± 3.2% 52% 32% 0% 16%
Rasmussen Reports[59] June 4–5, 2014 823 ± 4% 52% 33% 5% 10%
GQR[32] May 21–28, 2014 626 ± 4.4% 53% 35% 2% 9%
MFour/Tulchin Research[60] August 27–30, 2013 1,001 ± 3.5% 44% 15% 8% 33%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jerry
Brown (D) 		Tim
Donnelly (R) 		Other Undecided
GQR[32] May 21–28, 2014 626 ± 4.4% 54% 32% 3% 11%
PPIC[61] January 14–21, 2014 1,706 ± 3.8% 53% 17% — 30%
MFour/Tulchin Research[62] August 27–30, 2013 1,001 ± 3.5% 43% 21% 7% 30%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jerry
Brown (D) 		Abel
Maldonado (R) 		Other Undecided
MFour/Tulchin Research[62] August 27–30, 2013 1,001 ± 3.5% 42% 21% 9% 29%

Results

Brown won easily, by nearly twenty points. He outperformed his majority margin from 2010. As expected, Brown did very well in Los Angeles and in the San Francisco Bay Area. Kashkari conceded defeat right after the polls closed in California.

California gubernatorial election, 2014[63]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Jerry Brown (incumbent) 4,388,368 59.97% +6.20%
Republican Neel Kashkari 2,929,213 40.03% −0.86%
Turnout 7,317,581 30.94 −28.65
Total votes 7,317,581 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

By county

County[64] Jerry Brown
Democratic 		Neel Kashkari
Republican 		Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # %
Alameda 293,081 82.17% 63,593 17.83% 229,488 64.34% 356,674
Alpine 284 61.87% 175 38.13% 109 23.75% 459
Amador 5,682 44.55% 7,071 55.45% -1,389 -10.89% 12,753
Butte 29,520 47.79% 32,249 52.21% -2,729 -4.42% 61,769
Calaveras 6,870 43.73% 8,841 56.27% 1,971 12.55% 15,711
Colusa 1,789 42.73% 2,398 57.27% -609 -14.55% 4,187
Contra Costa 174,403 68.65% 79,660 31.35% 94,743 37.29% 254,063
Del Norte 3,488 49.64% 3,539 50.36% -51 -0.73% 7,027
El Dorado 27,916 45.50% 33,443 54.50% -5,527 -9.01% 61,359
Fresno 76,143 47.62% 83,744 52.38% -7,601 -4.75% 159,887
Glenn 2,049 34.40% 3,908 65.60% -1,859 -31.21% 5,957
Humboldt 24,003 64.61% 13,146 35.39% 10,857 29.23% 37,149
Imperial 13,457 64.26% 7,484 35.74% 5,973 28.52% 20,941
Inyo 2,317 42.68% 3,112 57.32% -795 -14.64% 5,429
Kern 54,269 40.90% 78,417 59.10% -24,148 -18.20% 132,686
Kings 8,752 39.20% 13,575 60.80% -4,823 -21.60% 22,327
Lake 10,722 61.28% 6,775 38.72% 3,947 22.56% 17,497
Lassen 2,213 32.44% 4,609 67.56% -2,396 -35.12% 6,822
Los Angeles 978,142 66.84% 485,186 33.16% 492,956 33.69% 1,463,328
Madera 9,974 37.22% 16,825 62.78% -6,851 -25.36% 26,799
Marin 69,751 79.35% 18,147 20.65% 51,604 58.71% 87,898
Mariposa 2,499 38.23% 4,038 61.77% -1,539 -23.54% 6,537
Mendocino 17,340 71.76% 6,825 28.24% 10,515 43.51% 24,165
Merced 18,945 50.13% 18,848 49.87% 97 0.26% 37,793
Modoc 770 27.20% 2,061 72.80% -1,291 -45.60% 2,831
Mono 1,632 53.09% 1,442 46.91% 190 6.18% 3,074
Monterey 51,315 69.43% 22,591 30.57% 28,724 38.87% 73,906
Napa 25,846 68.19% 12,059 31.81% 13,787 36.37% 37,905
Nevada 20,976 54.63% 17,419 45.37% 3,557 9.26% 38,395
Orange 275,707 44.43% 344,817 55.57% -69,110 -11.14% 620,524
Placer 51,241 45.41% 61,604 54.59% -10,363 -9.18% 112,845
Plumas 2,966 41.75% 4,139 58.25% -1,173 -16.51% 7,105
Riverside 165,340 47.09% 185,805 52.91% -20,465 -5.83% 351,145
Sacramento 202,416 62.33% 122,342 37.67% 80,074 24.66% 324,758
San Benito 8,654 63.52% 4,969 36.48% 3,685 27.05% 13,623
San Bernardino 134,417 46.86% 152,458 53.14% -18,041 -6.29% 286,875
San Diego 346,419 51.07% 331,942 48.93% 14,477 2.13% 678,361
San Francisco 196,745 88.15% 26,442 11.85% 170,303 76.31% 223,187
San Joaquin 62,614 53.54% 54,331 46.46% 8,283 7.08% 116,945
San Luis Obispo 46,606 54.32% 39,186 45.68% 7,420 8.65% 85,792
San Mateo 120,280 75.22% 39,615 24.78% 80,665 50.45% 159,895
Santa Barbara 64,912 58.26% 46,503 41.74% 18,409 16.52% 111,415
Santa Clara 288,732 72.94% 107,113 27.06% 181,619 45.88% 395,845
Santa Cruz 56,977 78.61% 15,499 21.39% 41,478 57.23% 72,476
Shasta 21,509 38.06% 35,007 61.94% -13,498 -23.88% 56,516
Sierra 679 44.21% 857 55.79% -178 -11.59% 1,536
Siskiyou 6,103 44.16% 7,717 55.84% -1,614 -11.68% 13,820
Solano 57,874 64.57% 31,754 35.43% 26,120 29.14% 89,628
Sonoma 107,328 74.75% 36,249 25.25% 71,079 49.51% 143,577
Stanislaus 46,566 51.54% 43,786 48.46% 2,780 3.08% 90,352
Sutter 8,688 42.73% 11,644 57.27% -2,956 -14.54% 20,332
Tehama 5,408 35.21% 9,952 64.79% -4,544 -29.58% 15,360
Trinity 1,711 44.17% 2,163 55.83% -452 -11.67% 3,874
Tulare 23,708 38.42% 37,996 61.58% -14,288 -23.16% 61,704
Tuolumne 7,9581 46.75% 9,058 53.25% -1,107 -6.51% 17,009
Ventura 106,072 53.07% 93,797 46.93% 12,275 6.14% 199,869
Yolo 31,431 69.12% 14,043 30.88% 17,388 38.24% 45,474
Yuba 5,166 41.62% 7,245 58.38% -2,079 -16.75% 12,411
Total 4,388,368 59.97% 2,929,213 40.03% 1,459,155 19.94% 7,317,581

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Brown won 41 of the 53 congressional districts, including two held by Republicans.[65]

District Kashkari Brown Representative
1st 56.5% 43.5% Doug LaMalfa
2nd 26.5% 73.5% Jared Huffman
3rd 44.0% 56.0% John Garamendi
4th 55.1% 44.9% Tom McClintock
5th 27.3% 72.6% Mike Thompson
6th 27.3% 72.7% Doris Matsui
7th 43.8% 56.2% Ami Bera
8th 62.3% 37.7% Paul Cook
9th 44.9% 55.1% Jerry McNerney
10th 48.3% 51.7% Jeff Denham
11th 29.6% 70.4% Mark DeSaulnier
12th 11.4% 88.6% Nancy Pelosi
13th 8.8% 91.2% Barbara Lee
14th 22.5% 77.5% Jackie Speier
15th 30.3% 69.7% Eric Swalwell
16th 45.6% 54.4% Jim Costa
17th 25.4% 74.6% Mike Honda
18th 28.4% 71.6% Anna Eshoo
19th 26.6% 73.4% Zoe Lofgren
20th 27.0% 73.0% Sam Farr
21st 47.6% 52.4% David Valadao
22nd 60.3% 39.7% Devin Nunes
23rd 64.5% 35.5% Kevin McCarthy
24th 43.4% 56.6% Lois Capps
25th 57.2% 42.8% Steve Knight
26th 44.9% 55.1% Julia Brownley
27th 37.7% 62.3% Judy Chu
28th 28.8% 71.2% Adam Schiff
29th 26.2% 73.8% Tony Cárdenas
30th 35.7% 64.3% Brad Sherman
31st 47.9% 52.1% Pete Aguilar
32nd 40.2% 59.8% Grace Napolitano
33rd 38.4% 61.6% Ted Lieu
34th 16.3% 83.7% Xavier Becerra
35th 39.4% 60.6% Norma Torres
36th 47.4% 52.6% Raul Ruiz
37th 16.2% 83.8% Karen Bass
38th 42.7% 57.3% Linda Sánchez
39th 55.5% 45.5% Ed Royce
40th 23.8% 76.2% Lucille Roybal-Allard
41st 45.5% 54.5% Mark Takano
42nd 63.2% 36.8% Ken Calvert
43rd 27.4% 72.6% Maxine Waters
44th 20.1% 79.9% Janice Hahn
45th 58.5% 41.5% Mimi Walters
46th 40.5% 59.5% Loretta Sánchez
47th 43.5% 56.5% Alan Lowenthal
48th 57.6% 42.4% Dana Rohrabacher
49th 55.0% 45.0% Darrell Issa
50th 64.0% 36.0% Duncan Hunter
51st 33.8% 66.2% Juan Vargas
52nd 47.7% 52.3% Scott Peters
53rd 40.0% 60.0% Susan Davis

References

  1. ^ "Summary of Qualifications and Requirements for the Offices of Governor and Lieutenant Governor". California Secretary of State Department. Archived from the original on July 6, 2014. Retrieved May 24, 2014.
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  4. ^ "Governor: Tim Donnelly congratulates Neel Kashkari". IVN. Archived from the original on June 4, 2014. Retrieved June 4, 2014.
  5. ^ "Jerry Brown Coasts To Re-Election With Nonexistent Campaign". Huffington Post. November 5, 2014. Retrieved November 30, 2014.
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  32. ^ a b c GQR
  33. ^ SurveyUSA
  34. ^ PPIC
  35. ^ PPIC
  36. ^ Field Poll
  37. ^ PPIC
  38. ^ Field Poll Archived December 10, 2013, at the Wayback Machine
  39. ^ PPIC
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  45. ^ Zogby Analytics
  46. ^ GQR/American Viewpoint
  47. ^ Field Poll
  48. ^ a b CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  49. ^ PPIC
  50. ^ PPIC
  51. ^ LA Times/USC [permanent dead link‍]
  52. ^ GQR/AV
  53. ^ CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  54. ^ Field Poll
  55. ^ Gravis Marketing
  56. ^ CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  57. ^ PPIC
  58. ^ Field Poll
  59. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  60. ^ MFour/Tulchin Research [permanent dead link‍]
  61. ^ PPIC
  62. ^ a b MFour/Tulchin Research [permanent dead link‍]
  63. ^ "Statement of Vote November 4, 2014, General Election" (PDF). California Secretary of State. Retrieved December 30, 2014.
  64. ^ "Complete Statement of vote" (PDF). California Secretary of State. Retrieved October 10, 2018.
  65. ^ "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.