2014 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election
The 2014 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election was held on November 4, 2014, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania , concurrently with elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections .
Incumbent Governor Tom Corbett was defeated by Tom Wolf ,[ 1] becoming the first incumbent Pennsylvania governor to lose re-election since William Bigler in 1854 , and the first Republican to ever do so.[ 2] [ a] This was the only governorship Democrats flipped in the 2014 midterms. Wolf was sworn in on January 20, 2015, marking the most recent time the Pennsylvania governor's office changed partisan control.
Corbett was considered vulnerable, as reflected in his low approval ratings. An August 2013 Franklin & Marshall College poll found that only 17% of voters thought Corbett was doing an "excellent" or "good" job, only 20% thought he deserved to be reelected, and 62% said the state was "off on the wrong track".[ 3] Politico called Corbett the most vulnerable incumbent governor in the country,[ 4] The Washington Post ranked the election as the most likely for a party switch,[ 5] and the majority of election forecasters rated it "likely Democratic".
Democrats flipped the counties of Erie , Lawrence , Beaver , Alleghany , Greene , Fayette , Cambria , Centre , Clinton , Northumberland , Dauphin , Luzerne , Monroe , Northampton , Carbon , Schuylkill , Lehigh , Berks , Bucks , and Chester . Meanwhile, this is the last time these counties have voted Democratic in a statewide election: Lawrence , Greene , Fayette , Cambria , Clinton , Northumberland , Carbon , and Schuylkill .
This is the first Pennsylvania gubernatorial election since 1982 in which the winner was of the same party as the incumbent president , and the first time since 1934 this occurred during a Democratic administration. This also remains the last time that a Pennsylvania gubernatorial election has been decided by a single-digit margin, as Democrats have won each subsequent election by large double-digit margins. Additionally, it was the most recent election where Pennsylvania voted for a gubernatorial candidate of a different party from fellow Rust Belt states Michigan and Wisconsin.[ 6]
Background
Democrats and Republicans have alternated in the governorship of Pennsylvania every eight years from 1950 to 2010.[ 7] This has been referred to as "the cycle",[ 8] [ 9] but it was broken with a Democratic Party win in 2014. Pennsylvania has also voted against the party of the sitting president in 18 of the last 19 gubernatorial contests dating back to 1938; Democrats lost 16 of the previous 17 Pennsylvania gubernatorial races with a Democratic president in the White House, a pattern begun in 1860.[ 10] The last incumbent governor to be defeated for re-election was Democrat William Bigler in 1854 . Until 1968, governors could only serve one term; the state constitution now allows governors to serve two consecutive terms.[ 11] Libertarian nominee Ken Krawchuk failed to file the paperwork to be on the ballot in time and was excluded from the election as a result.
Republican primary
Incumbent Tom Corbett filed to run, as did Bob Guzzardi , an attorney and conservative activist. However, Guzzardi failed to file a statement of financial interests as required by law, after being told by an employee of the State Department that it was unnecessary. Four Republicans, backed by the state Republican Party, sued to have him removed from the race. The case reached the state Supreme Court, which ordered that Guzzardi's name be struck from the ballot.[ 12] NASCAR Camping World Truck Series veteran Norm Benning backed Governor Corbett during the later half of the NASCAR season with "Re-Elect Tom Corbett" posted on his truck.
Candidates
Declared
Disqualified
Declined
Endorsements
Tom Corbett
Elected officials
Jim Cawley , Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania [ 19]
Jim Christiana , Pennsylvania state representative from the 15th District[ 20]
Chris Christie , Governor of New Jersey and Chairman of the Republican Governors Association [ 21]
Hal English , Pennsylvania state representative from the 30th District[ 20]
Mike Kelly , U.S. Representative of Pennsylvania's 3rd congressional district [ 22]
Tim Murphy , U.S. Representative of Pennsylvania's 18th congressional district [ 23]
Sandra Schultz Newman , former and first female Justice of the Supreme Court of Pennsylvania [ 24]
Rick Perry , Governor of Texas and former candidate for U.S. President in 2012 [ 25]
Tom Ridge , former Governor of Pennsylvania [ 26]
Rick Santorum , former U.S. Senator of Pennsylvania and former candidate for U.S. President in 2012 [ 27] [ 28]
Mark Schweiker , former Governor of Pennsylvania [ 29]
John J. Taylor , Pennsylvania state representative from the 177th District[ 30]
Glenn Thompson , U.S. Representative of Pennsylvania's 5th congressional district [ 31]
Dick Thornburgh , former Governor of Pennsylvania [ 26]
Pat Toomey , U.S. Senator of Pennsylvania [ 32]
Mike Turzai , Pennsylvania House Majority Leader from the 28th District[ 20]
Randy Vulakovich , Pennsylvania state senator from the 40th District[ 20]
Kim Ward , Pennsylvania state senator from the 39th District[ 20]
Individuals
Others
Polling
Hypothetical polling
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Tom Corbett
Bob Guzzardi
Undecided
Gravis Marketing
January 22, 2014
956
± ?
42%
23%
35%
Results
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
Withdrew
Declined
Bob Casey Jr. , U.S. Senator[ 58]
Scott Conklin , state representative and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2010 [ 59] [ 60]
Kathy Dahlkemper , former U.S. Representative[ 61]
Eugene DePasquale , Pennsylvania Auditor General [ 62]
Kathleen Kane , Pennsylvania Attorney General [ 63]
Tom Knox , businessman, candidate for Mayor of Philadelphia in 2007 and candidate for governor in 2010 [ 64]
Daylin Leach , state senator (running for Congress)[ 65]
Patrick Murphy , former U.S. Representative[ 66]
Michael Nutter , Mayor of Philadelphia [ 67]
Ed Rendell , former governor[ 68]
Joe Sestak , former U.S. Representative and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010 [ 69]
Josh Shapiro , chairman of the Montgomery County Board of Commissioners [ 70]
Tim Solobay , state senator[ 66] [ 71]
Michael J. Stack III , state senator (running for lieutenant governor )[ 72]
Endorsements
Robert McCord
Individuals
Bryan Barbin , state representative[ 71]
Ryan Bizzarro , state representative[ 73]
John Blake , state senator[ 71]
Michael B. Carroll , state representative[ 71]
John Cordisco , former state representative and Bucks County Democratic Committee chairman[ 73]
Dom Costa , state representative[ 71]
Florindo Fabrizio , state representative[ 71]
Jaret Gibbons , state representative[ 71]
Neal Goodman , state representative[ 71]
Joseph Gurzenda , former state senator[ 71]
Kevin Haggerty , state representative[ 71]
Ted Harhai , state representative[ 71]
Sid Michaels Kavulich , state representative[ 71]
Deberah Kula , state representative[ 71]
Jennifer Mann , former state representative[ 71]
Joe Markosek , state representative[ 71]
Robert Matzie , state representative[ 71]
Ed Pawlowski , Mayor of Allentown [ 56]
Chris Sainato , state representative[ 71]
Tim Seip , former state representative[ 71]
Pam Snyder , state representative[ 71]
Tim Solobay , state senator[ 71]
Sean Wiley , state senator[ 71]
John Wozniak , state senator[ 71]
John Yudichak , state senator[ 71]
Organizations
Kathleen McGinty
Individuals
Lester R. Brown , founder and President of the Earth Policy Institute [ 80]
Carol Browner , former EPA Administrator and former director of the White House Office of Energy and Climate Change Policy [ 80]
Peter Daley , state representative[ 81]
Anthony M. DeLuca , state representative[ 81]
Kathryn S. Fuller , former president and CEO of the World Wildlife Foundation [ 80]
Al Gore , former Vice President of the United States [ 82]
Patty Kim , state representative[ 81]
Jonathan Lash , former president of the World Resources Institute [ 80]
Carl Pope , former executive director of the Sierra Club [ 80]
Bill Richardson , former Governor of New Mexico [ 80]
Robert Rubin , former United States Secretary of the Treasury [ 83]
Organizations
Allyson Schwartz
Individuals
Organizations
Tom Wolf
Individuals
Jim Brewster , state senator[ 85]
Frank Burns , state representative[ 95]
Andy Dinniman , state senator[ 96]
Patrick Dougherty, Indiana County district attorney[ 97]
Michael F. Doyle , U.S. Representative[ 85]
Dwight E. Evans , state representative[ 98]
Jim Ferlo , state senator[ 85]
Mike Finnerty, Pittsburgh city councilman[ 85]
Marty Flynn , state representative[ 99]
Rich Fitzgerald , Allegheny County Executive[ 85]
Wayne D. Fontana , state senator[ 85]
Edward Gainey , state representative[ 85]
Rick Gray , Mayor of Lancaster [ 100]
John Hanger , former Secretary of the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection [ 101]
Vincent Hughes , state senator[ 102]
Ron Klink , former U.S. Representative[ 85]
Bill Kortz , state representative[ 85]
Eddie Day Pashinski , state representative[ 99]
Bill Peduto , mayor of Pittsburgh [ 85]
Josh Shapiro , chairman of the Montgomery County Board of Commissioners[ 103]
Mark Singel , former lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania[ 104]
Matthew H. Smith , state senator[ 85]
Mike Sturla , state representative[ 76]
Rob Teplitz , state senator[ 105]
Jake Wheatley , state representative[ 85]
Robin Wiessmann , former state treasurer[ 106]
Newspapers
Polling
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
John Hanger
Tom Knox
Jo Ellen Litz
Robert McCord
Kathleen McGinty
Max Myers
Ed Pawl- owski
Allyson Schwartz
Joe Sestak
Tim Solobay
Mike Stack
Jack Wagner
Tom Wolf
Other
Unde- cided
Muhlenberg
May 13–15, 2014
414
±5%
—
—
—
11%
7%
—
—
16%
—
—
—
—
41%
—
25%
Harper Archived May 14, 2014, at the Wayback Machine
May 12–13, 2014
559
±4.14%
—
—
—
15%
5%
—
—
15%
—
—
—
—
50%
—
16%
F&M College
May 6–12, 2014
530
±4.3%
—
—
—
11%
6%
—
—
19%
—
—
—
—
41%
3%
20%
Muhlenberg
April 28–30, 2014
417
±5%
—
—
—
13%
3%
—
—
14%
—
—
—
—
42%
—
28%
GQR**
Mar. 31–Apr. 3, 2014
600
±?
—
—
—
14%
5%
—
—
12%
—
—
—
—
52%
—
16%
F&M College
March 25–31, 2014
524
±4.3%
—
—
—
8%
6%
—
—
9%
—
—
—
—
40%
6%
31%
Harper Archived January 16, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
Feb. 22–23, 2014
501
±4.38%
7%
—
—
8%
6%
—
—
14%
—
—
—
7%
40%
—
19%
F&M College
Feb. 18–23, 2014
548
±4.2%
1%
—
—
3%
1%
—
—
9%
—
—
—
—
36%
1%
48%
PPP
Nov. 22–25, 2013
436
±4.7%
8%
—
2%
10%
9%
2%
4%
21%
—
—
—
17%
2%
—
27%
Harper Archived November 13, 2013, at the Wayback Machine
Nov. 9–10, 2013
649
±3.85%
7%
—
—
12%
15%
—
6%
22%
—
—
—
—
5%
—
34%
GHY^
Aug. 27–29, 2013
506
± 4.4%
—
—
—
6%
6%
—
—
25%
—
—
—
—
6%
—
57%
BSG* Archived March 5, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
July 16–18, 2013
800
±3.46%
—
—
—
10%
15%
—
—
34%
—
—
—
—
11%
—
30%
Quinnipiac Archived June 13, 2013, at the Wayback Machine
May 30–Jun. 4, 2013
460
± 4.6%
1%
—
—
4%
5%
1%
1%
18%
—
—
1%
—
2%
1%
63%
Quinnipiac
April 19–24, 2013
547
± 4.2%
0%
—
—
3%
—
—
1%
15%
15%
—
1%
—
3%
2%
60%
GSG Archived March 6, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
March 9–12, 2013
601
± 4%
1%
—
—
5%
5%
—
3%
18%
15%
3%
1%
—
2%
—
47%
1%
—
—
7%
7%
—
3%
21%
—
3%
2%
—
2%
—
54%
—
—
—
12%
—
—
—
31%
—
—
—
—
7%
—
49%
GQR**
March 2–7, 2013
602
±3.99%
1%
1%
—
7%
3%
—
—
16%
21%
—
2%
—
3%
1%
45%
Harper Archived March 9, 2013, at the Wayback Machine
Feb. 27–28, 2013
?
±?
0.82%
2.88%
—
7%
—
—
—
18.52%
19.75%
—
—
—
1.23%
—
49.79%
** Internal poll for the Tom Wolf campaign
^ Internal poll for the Kathleen McGinty campaign
* Internal poll for the Allyson Schwartz campaign
Results
Results by county: Wolf—80–90%
Wolf—70–80%
Wolf—60–70%
Wolf—50–60%
Wolf—40–50%
General election
Candidates
Tom Corbett (R), incumbent governor
Paul Glover (G), activist
Jonathan D. Jewell (I), Independent
Ken Krawchuk (L), technology consultant and nominee for governor in 1998 and 2002
Tom Wolf (D), former secretary of the Pennsylvania Department of Revenue
Debates
Spending
As of mid-October, Wolf had raised $27.6 million and spent $21.1 million while Corbett had raised $20.6 million and spent $19.3 million. The two campaigns had run over 21,000 television ads, costing over $13 million.[ 112]
Predictions
Polling
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Tom Corbett (R)
Tom Wolf (D)
Other
Undecided
Muhlenberg College
October 27–29, 2014
409
± 5%
39%
51%
6%
4%
Magellan Strategies
October 27–28, 2014
1,433
± 2.6%
43%
50%
—
7%
Harper Polling Archived February 8, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
October 26–27, 2014
680
± 3.76%
40%
50%
—
10%
Franklin & Marshall
October 20–26, 2014
326 LV
± 5.1%
40%
53%
1%
5%
738 RV
± 3.4%
37%
53%
1%
9%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov
October 16–23, 2014
3,111
± 3%
39%
52%
0%
8%
Magellan Strategies
October 13–14, 2014
1,131
± 2.9%
42%
49%
—
9%
Quinnipiac University
September 30 – October 5, 2014
907
± 3.3%
38%
55%
2%
5%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov
September 20 – October 1, 2014
3,283
± 2%
41%
50%
0%
9%
Robert Morris University
September 26–29, 2014
500
± 4%
34%
57%
—
9%
Mercyhurst University
September 15–24, 2014
479
± 4.48%
28%
43%
2%
27%
Franklin & Marshall
September 15–22, 2014
231 LV
± 6.4%
37%
57%
2%
5%
520 RV
± 4.3%
33%
54%
4%
9%
Magellan Strategies Archived September 26, 2014, at the Wayback Machine
September 17–18, 2014
1,120
± 2.9%
40%
49%
—
11%
Muhlenberg College
September 16–18, 2014
429
± 5%
33%
54%
4%
9%
Quinnipiac University
September 3–8, 2014
1,161
± 2.9%
35%
59%
2%
4%
Harper Polling Archived January 10, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
September 2–3, 2014
665
± 3.2%
41%
52%
—
7%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov
August 18 – September 2, 2014
3,560
± 2%
39%
50%
2%
10%
Robert Morris University
August 18–22, 2014
500
± 4.5%
25%
56%
—
20%
Franklin & Marshall
August 18–25, 2014
520
± 4.3%
24%
49%
1%
25%
Magellan Strategies Archived September 12, 2014, at the Wayback Machine
July 30–31, 2014
1,214
± 2.83%
38%
50%
—
12%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov
July 5–24, 2014
4,150
± ?
39%
52%
2%
7%
Franklin & Marshall
June 23–29, 2014
502
± 4.4%
25%
47%
1%
27%
Quinnipiac University
May 29 – June 2, 2014
1,308
± 2.7%
33%
53%
1%
13%
Public Policy Polling
May 30 – June 1, 2014
835
± 3.4%
30%
55%
—
15%
Rasmussen Reports
May 27–28, 2014
750
± 4%
31%
51%
4%
14%
Quinnipiac University Archived February 27, 2014, at the Wayback Machine
February 19–24, 2014
1,405
± 2.6%
33%
52%
1%
13%
Gravis Marketing
January 22–23, 2014
717
± 4%
34%
41%
—
24%
Quinnipiac University Archived December 20, 2013, at the Wayback Machine
December 11–16, 2013
1,061
± 3%
37%
44%
1%
19%
Public Policy Polling
November 22–25, 2013
693
± 3.7%
32%
44%
—
24%
Quinnipiac University
March 6–11, 2013
1,116
± 2.9%
39%
39%
2%
20%
Public Policy Polling
March 8–10, 2013
504
± 4.4%
33%
42%
—
25%
Public Policy Polling
January 4–6, 2013
675
± 3.8%
41%
29%
—
30%
Hypothetical polling
With Corbett
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Tom Corbett (R)
John Hanger (D)
Other
Undecided
Quinnipiac University Archived February 27, 2014, at the Wayback Machine
February 19–24, 2014
1,405
± 2.6%
37%
40%
4%
20%
Quinnipiac University Archived December 20, 2013, at the Wayback Machine
December 11–16, 2013
1,061
± 3%
42%
37%
2%
19%
Public Policy Polling
November 22–25, 2013
693
± 3.7%
32%
51%
—
16%
Quinnipiac University
March 6–11, 2013
1,116
± 2.9%
42%
41%
2%
15%
Public Policy Polling
March 8–10, 2013
504
± 4.4%
34%
41%
—
25%
Public Policy Polling
January 4–6, 2013
675
± 3.8%
41%
37%
—
21%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Tom Corbett (R)
Kathleen Kane (D)
Other
Undecided
Public Policy Polling
January 4–6, 2013
675
± 3.8%
42%
42%
—
16%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Tom Corbett (R)
Tom Knox (D)
Other
Undecided
Quinnipiac University
March 6–11, 2013
1,116
± 2.9%
40%
39%
1%
19%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Tom Corbett (R)
Robert McCord (D)
Other
Undecided
Quinnipiac University Archived February 27, 2014, at the Wayback Machine
February 19–24, 2014
1,405
± 2.6%
36%
43%
4%
17%
Gravis Marketing
January 22–23, 2014
717
± 4%
36%
48%
—
16%
Quinnipiac University Archived December 20, 2013, at the Wayback Machine
December 11–16, 2013
1,061
± 3%
39%
42%
2%
18%
Public Policy Polling
November 22–25, 2013
693
± 3.7%
31%
50%
—
18%
Quinnipiac University Archived June 13, 2013, at the Wayback Machine
May 30–June 4, 2013
1,032
± 3.1%
35%
43%
1%
20%
Quinnipiac University
April 19–24, 2013
1,235
± 2.8%
35%
44%
1%
20%
Quinnipiac University
March 6–11, 2013
1,116
± 2.9%
42%
38%
1%
19%
Public Policy Polling
March 8–10, 2013
504
± 4.4%
34%
45%
—
21%
Public Policy Polling
January 4–6, 2013
675
± 3.8%
41%
35%
—
24%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Tom Corbett (R)
Michael Nutter (D)
Other
Undecided
Public Policy Polling
January 4–6, 2013
675
± 3.8%
41%
38%
—
21%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Tom Corbett (R)
Ed Rendell (D)
Other
Undecided
Public Policy Polling
January 4–6, 2013
675
± 3.8%
40%
46%
—
14%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Tom Corbett (R)
Allyson Schwartz (D)
Other
Undecided
Quinnipiac University Archived February 27, 2014, at the Wayback Machine
February 19–24, 2014
1,405
± 2.6%
38%
44%
3%
15%
Gravis Marketing
January 22–23, 2014
717
± 4%
35%
44%
—
21%
Quinnipiac University Archived December 20, 2013, at the Wayback Machine
December 11–16, 2013
1,061
± 3%
37%
45%
1%
16%
Public Policy Polling
November 22–25, 2013
693
± 3.7%
33%
48%
—
20%
Benenson Strategy Group Archived March 5, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
August 6–8, 2013
600
± 4%
41%
49%
—
10%
Quinnipiac University Archived June 13, 2013, at the Wayback Machine
May 30–June 4, 2013
1,032
± 3.1%
35%
45%
1%
19%
Public Opinion Strategies Archived March 5, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
April 30–May 2, 2013
600
± 4%
34%
46%
—
20%
Quinnipiac University
April 19–24, 2013
1,235
± 2.8%
34%
47%
2%
17%
Quinnipiac University
March 6–11, 2013
1,116
± 2.9%
39%
42%
1%
18%
Public Policy Polling
March 8–10, 2013
504
± 4.4%
34%
45%
—
21%
Benenson Strategy Group
January 15–17, 2013
600
± 4%
42%
50%
—
9%
Public Policy Polling
January 4–6, 2013
675
± 3.8%
41%
34%
—
25%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Tom Corbett (R)
Mike Stack (D)
Other
Undecided
Quinnipiac University
March 6–11, 2013
1,116
± 2.9%
39%
40%
1%
20%
With Gerlach
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Jim Gerlach (R)
Allyson Schwartz (D)
Other
Undecided
Public Policy Polling
November 22–25, 2013
693
± 3.7%
31%
39%
—
29%
With Guzzardi
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Bob Guzzardi (R)
Robert McCord (D)
Other
Undecided
Gravis Marketing
January 22–23, 2014
717
± 4%
31%
43%
—
26%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Bob Guzzardi (R)
Allyson Schwartz (D)
Other
Undecided
Gravis Marketing
January 22–23, 2014
717
± 4%
33%
42%
—
25%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Bob Guzzardi (R)
Tom Wolf (D)
Other
Undecided
Gravis Marketing
January 22–23, 2014
717
± 4%
30%
38%
—
31%
With Kelly
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Mike Kelly (R)
Allyson Schwartz (D)
Other
Undecided
Public Policy Polling
November 22–25, 2013
693
± 3.7%
33%
41%
—
27%
Results
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
By congressional district
Corbett won 10 of 18 congressional districts, despite losing statewide to Wolf. However, at the time, most of the districts were gerrymanders drawn by Republican legislators.[ 118] Wolf won the 6th , 7th and 8th districts, which all elected Republicans to the House.
See also
Notes
^ In the mid-1800s, governors served three-year terms, and were limited to serving no more than six years of every nine. Beginning with the election of 1874, they were limited to one four-year term. A change to the state constitution in 1968 permitted governors to serve two consecutive four-year terms, then wait at least one term before serving again, with no lifetime limit.
References
^ "NBC News Projects: PA's Corbett Ousted by Democrat Tom Wolf" . NBC News . November 4, 2014. Retrieved November 4, 2014 .
^ Fitzgerald, Thomas (November 6, 2014). "Wolf defeats Corbett" . philly.com. Archived from the original on December 21, 2014. Retrieved August 3, 2022 .
^ "Franklin & Marshall College poll" (PDF) . Franklin & Marshall College . August 28, 2013. Archived from the original (PDF) on September 27, 2013. Retrieved November 13, 2013 .
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