2018 Pennsylvania's 18th congressional district special election

2018 Pennsylvania's 18th congressional district special election
← 2016 March 13, 2018 November 2018 →
Pennsylvania's 18th congressional district
 
Nominee Conor Lamb Rick Saccone
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 114,102 113,347
Percentage 49.9% 49.5%
U.S. Representative before election

Tim Murphy
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Conor Lamb
Democratic

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A special election for Pennsylvania's 18th congressional district was held on March 13, 2018, following the resignation of Republican representative Tim Murphy.[1] Murphy, who held the seat since January 3, 2003, declared his intent to resign on October 5, 2017, and vacated his seat on October 21 that year. Democrat Conor Lamb defeated Republican Rick Saccone 49.86% to 49.53%. Saccone conceded the race eight days after the election.[2]

Background

Eight-term incumbent Republican U.S. Representative Tim Murphy was involved in a sex scandal consisting of his allegedly having extramarital sexual relations with a woman and then asking her to have an abortion. This was particularly damaging because Murphy identifies as a pro-life politician. Murphy subsequently announced that he was resigning and that he would leave office on October 21.[3][4]

Primary elections were not held in the race. Instead, nominees were chosen by each party. The Republican Party held a special convention on November 11, 2017, to choose a nominee through a conferee process involving 215 local Republican activists.[5][6] The Democratic Party held their nominating convention on November 19, 2017.[7] The Libertarian Party of Allegheny County and the Libertarian Party of Washington County nominated a candidate via party caucus.[8]

At the time, Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District was located in Western Pennsylvania and bordered the state of West Virginia. It included portions of Greene, Washington, Allegheny and Westmoreland counties.[9] The district had a Cook PVI score of R+11.[10] This was the last election for Pennsylvania's 18th congressional district held under the configuration made in 2011 by the Pennsylvania Legislature as new districts have been drawn in accordance with the ruling of the state supreme court in League of Women Voters v. Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and came into effect for the main 2018 congressional elections in November.[11][12][13] The bulk of the old 18th became the 14th District.

Republican conferee meeting

Candidates

Declared

Failed to qualify

  • George Karpacs, Pennsylvania College Access Program board member[17]

Withdrew

Results

Republican conferree meeting[20][21]
Candidate First ballot Pct. Second ballot Pct.
Rick Saccone 74 34.4% 123 57.5%
Guy Reschenthaler 75 34.9% 91 42.5%
Kim Ward 66 30.7% Eliminated

Democratic convention

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Results

Democratic convention[28][29][30][31]
Candidate First ballot Pct. Second ballot Pct.
Conor Lamb 225 40.6% 319 58.5%
Gina Cerilli 153 27.6% 152 27.9%
Pam Iovino 90 16.2% 74 13.6%
Mike Crossey 47 8.5% Eliminated
Rueben Brock 21 3.8% Eliminated
Bob Solomon 18 3.2% Eliminated
Keith Seewald 0 0.0% Eliminated

Libertarian Party nomination

The Libertarian candidate was Pittsburgh attorney Drew Gray Miller. Prior to this however, a primary candidate was Philip Moses, a high school government teacher. Moses ended his campaign in early 2018.

General election

Candidates

Official Sample Ballot

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[35] Tossup February 27, 2018
Inside Elections[36] Tossup February 28, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[37] Tossup March 8, 2018

Campaign

The major party candidates were Republican Rick Saccone and Democrat Conor Lamb, in a district that Donald Trump carried by almost 20 points in the 2016 presidential election.[38] The special election attracted national attention[39] and was seen by many political analysts and commentators as a bellwether on the popularity of Donald Trump, Trump's tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, and the Republican Party.[39][40][41][42][43][44] Saccone said the special election was a referendum on Trump's presidency and called himself "Trump before Trump was Trump".[45][46][47] Prominent Republicans including Donald Trump (twice), Donald Trump Jr., Ivanka Trump, and Mike Pence came to the state to campaign for Saccone.[48] The district was contested by a third-party candidate (Libertarian Drew Gray Miller) for the first time since 1996.[49]

Campaign funding

Republicans and aligned groups spent more than twice as much as Democrats and aligned groups on the special election.[50] Although Lamb's campaign fund raised more than Saccone's campaign fund, Saccone benefited from far more spending by outside groups than Lamb.[50]

The Republican Party and outside pro-Republican "independent expenditure" groups spent almost $10.7 million to support Saccone or oppose Lamb in the campaign, while $2.6 million in independent expenditures was spent in support of Lamb.[51] Fourteen outside groups (seven Republican, seven Democrat) comprised over 95% of the spending. For the Republican side, the major groups spending money on Saccone's behalf were Paul Ryan's Congressional Leadership Fund, the National Republican Congressional Committee, the Republican National Committee, and the pro-Trump groups America First Action and 45Committee. For the Democratic side, the major groups spending money on Lamb's behalf were the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, Patriot Majority PAC, and the VoteVets.org Action Fund.[51]

Debates

KDKA-TV hosted the first debate on February 19, 2018.[52] WTAE-TV hosted the second and final debate on March 3, 2018, at 7 PM EST. The debate was hosted live by WTAE-TV along with the League of Women Voters of Greater Pittsburgh.[53][54]

Host
network 		Date Link(s) Participants
Conor
Lamb (D) 		Drew Gray
Miller (L) 		Rick
Saccone (R)
WTAE-TV March 3, 2018 [55] Invited — Invited
KDKA-TV February 19, 2018 [56][57][58] Invited — Invited

Endorsements

Rick Saccone (R)

Federal politicians

Individuals

Unions

Organizations

Newspapers

Conor Lamb (D)

Federal politicians

Local and statewide politicians

Individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Newspapers and news websites

Drew Gray Miller (L)

Politicians

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Rick
Saccone (R) 		Conor
Lamb (D) 		Other Undecided
Monmouth University[113] March 8–11, 2018 372 ± 5.1% 45% 51% 1% 3%
RABA Research[114] March 6–8, 2018 707 ± 3.7% 44% 48% – 9%
Gravis Marketing[115] March 1–5, 2018 911 ± 3.3% 45% 42% – 13%
Emerson College[116] March 1–3, 2018 474 ± 4.8% 45% 48% – 7%
Gravis Marketing[117] February 13–15, 2018 602 ± 4.2% 45% 40% – 15%
Monmouth University[118] February 12–14, 2018 320 ± 5.5% 49% 46% 1% 4%
DFM Research (D)[119] January 18–19, 2018 384 ± 5.0% 41% 38% – 21%
Gravis Marketing[120] January 3–5, 2018 513 ± 4.3% 46% 34% – 20%

Results

Pennsylvania's 18th congressional district special election, 2018[121]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Conor Lamb 114,102 49.86% +49.86%
Republican Rick Saccone 113,347 49.53% −50.47%
Libertarian Drew Gray Miller 1,381 0.60% +0.60%
Total votes 228,830 100.00%
Plurality 755 0.33% -99.67%
Democratic gain from Republican Swing

Lamb declared victory just after midnight on March 14.[122] With all precincts reporting, Lamb led Saccone by 627 votes, a margin of 0.2 percent. NBC News declared Lamb the apparent winner early on the morning of March 14, based on the remaining absentee ballots from Washington County.[123] The New York Times followed suit later that afternoon.[38] A few other outlets declared Lamb the winner in what has been described as "a major upset",[124][125] but others withheld judgment, citing the closeness of the race and the likelihood of a recount.[126] Saccone conceded the race to Lamb on March 21, the day that the last votes were counted.[127] Allegheny County certified its election results on April 2, making Conor Lamb's victory official.[128] He was sworn in on April 12.

Lamb's victory came primarily on the strength of winning the Allegheny County portion of the district by almost 15,400 votes, as he lost the rest of the district by 14,700 votes.[129]

Results by county

Vote breakdown by county[128]
Conor Lamb
Democrat 		Rick Saccone
Republican 		Drew Gray Miller
Libertarian 		Margin Total
County Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes
Allegheny 58,874 57.25% 43,398 42.24% 526 0.51% 15,476 15.01% 102,798
Greene 2,022 41.56% 2,800 57.56% 43 0.88% 778 16.00% 4,865
Washington 22,757 46.16% 26,198 53.14% 344 0.70% 3,441 6.98% 49,299
Westmoreland 30,449 42.37% 40,951 56.98% 468 0.65% 10,502 14.61% 71,868

See also

References

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  2. ^ Tacopino, Joe (March 21, 2018). "Rick Saccone finally concedes Pennsylvania special election". New York Post. Retrieved November 19, 2020.
  3. ^ Deppen, Colin (October 6, 2017). "How the special election for Rep. Tim Murphy's seat will work — and which party might win". The Incline. Retrieved October 14, 2017.
  4. ^ Herring, An-Li (October 9, 2017). "Tim Murphy's Open Congressional Seat Is Already Highly Contested". 90.5 WESA. Retrieved October 14, 2017.
  5. ^ "PA GOP Picks Conferees for PA-18 Special Election". Retrieved November 14, 2017.
  6. ^ Potter, Chris [@CPotterPgh] (November 11, 2017). "After second round of voting, GOP has its nominee for the PA-18 special election: state Rep. Rick Saccone. Dems recommend their champion to state leaders next Sunday" (Tweet). Retrieved November 14, 2017 – via Twitter.
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  13. ^ Jonathan Martin (March 8, 2018). "Why G.O.P. Is Spending Millions on a Soon-to-Vanish Seat in Trump Country". The New York Times.
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  17. ^ Venteicher, Wes. "GOP picks Elizabeth Twp. Rep. Rick Saccone to fill disgraced ex-congressman Murphy's seat". TribLIVE.com. Retrieved November 14, 2017. ...candidate George Karpacs didn't show up to the meeting
  18. ^ Venteicher, Wes. "Pennsylvania legislator Jason Ortitay to run for Congressman Tim Murphy's seat". TribLIVE.com. Retrieved November 5, 2017.
  19. ^ @CPotterPgh (November 11, 2017). "Here at the GOP conferee process for selecting their nominee in the PA-18 special. State Rep. Jason Ortitay withdrew prior to voting. No candidate achieved majority on first ballot, so state Sen. Kim Ward is dropped for second round, leaving Guy Reschenthaler and Rick Saccone" (Tweet). Retrieved November 11, 2017 – via Twitter.
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  61. ^ Lou Barletta [@loubarletta] (January 11, 2018). "Rick Saccone is a veteran, diplomat, international businessman, and elected leader. He's running for Congress to fight for the America First agenda. We need leaders like Rick in Congress. @Saccone4PA18" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  62. ^ Venteicher, Wes (January 24, 2018). "Former UN Ambassador John Bolton endorses Rick Saccone for Congress". Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.
  63. ^ Brian Burch. "CatholicVote.org endorses Rick Saccone for Congress". CatholicVote.Org. Retrieved December 14, 2017.
  64. ^ David McIntosh (December 19, 2017). "Club for Growth PAC Endorses Rick Saccone for Congress". Club for Growth. Retrieved December 19, 2017.
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  67. ^ Weigel, David (January 4, 2018). "Republican super PACs surge into Pennsylvania special election". The Washington Post PowerPost blog. Archived from the original on January 4, 2018.(subscription required)
  68. ^ "FOAC PAC endorses Rick Saccone for Congress" (PDF). Firearms Owners Against Crime. Archived from the original (PDF) on December 22, 2017. Retrieved December 6, 2017.
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  76. ^ "PA-18: Rep. Joe Kennedy III (D. MA) Helps Conor Lamb (D) Keep The Democratic Wave Rolling". Daily Kos. January 18, 2018.
  77. ^ Seth Moulton [@SethMoulton] (November 30, 2017). "After serving as a Marine, Conor Lamb returned home to PA to work as an Assistant U.S. Attorney. He prosecuted drug dealers and violent offenders to fight the opioid epidemic. Now he's running for Congress, and I'm proud to endorse him. Learn more" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
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  94. ^ 32BJ SEIU [@32BJSEIU] (February 10, 2018). "We're proud to endorse @ConorLambPA today. We need him in Washington to fight for labor rights, good jobs, Social Security, Medicare & strong schools. #UnionStrong #PA18" (Tweet) – via Twitter.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
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  96. ^ Potter, Chris (January 12, 2018). "Trump visit to support Saccone shows high stakes of District 18 race". Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Republicans "see real trouble," said Tim Waters, the national political director for the United Steelworkers. The union is backing Mr. Saccone's rival, Democrat Conor Lamb.
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  102. ^ "End Citizens United Endorses Conor Lamb in PA-18 Special Election - End Citizens United". End Citizens United. January 17, 2018.
  103. ^ "Humane Society Legislative Fund endorses Conor Lamb for Congress". Humane Society Legislative Fund. February 22, 2018. Archived from the original on March 1, 2018. Retrieved March 1, 2018.
  104. ^ J Street [@jstreetdotorg] (February 6, 2018). "J Street is proud to endorse @ConorLambPA in next month's PA-18 special election" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  105. ^ "PA-18: Jason Kander's PAC Doubles Down To Pull Off Another Doug Jones-Style Victory". Daily Kos. February 20, 2018.
  106. ^ Richtman, Max (February 14, 2018). "National Committee Endorses Conor Lamb for House in PA -18 Special Election". NCPSSM. Archived from the original on February 15, 2018. Retrieved February 15, 2018.
  107. ^ "Raising Our Future PAC Endorses Conor Lamb In Pennsylvania's 18th District Special Election – Raising Our Future". www.raisingourfuture.org. March 6, 2018. Archived from the original on March 13, 2018. Retrieved March 12, 2018.
  108. ^ Jon Bauman [@JonBowzerBauman] (February 14, 2018). "I'm in PA-18 to endorse Conor Lamb on behalf of Social Security Works in the special election for Congress to be held 3/13. TURN YOUR ATTENTION HERE, EVERYBODY! IT'S THE NEXT BIG ONE!!!" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  109. ^ Conor Lamb. "2018 Steel City Stonewall Democrats Endorsement Questionnaire" (PDF). Steel City Stonewall Democrats. Retrieved February 27, 2018. I am grateful to have your support and endorsement in my current race for the PA-18 special election, and hope to have it going forward into the primary and general elections so that we can continue to work as allies in the fight for full equality.[permanent dead link‍]
  110. ^ VoteVets [@VoteVets] (December 6, 2017). "VoteVets PAC is today endorsing Marine veteran @ConorLambPA for Congress in Pennsylvania's 18th District. "Conor is someone who will always be thinking of those who need a voice, and how he can best represent them," said Jon Soltz, Iraq War vet and Chairman of VoteVets. #PApol" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  111. ^ Daily Kos Elections [@DKElections] (January 18, 2018). "Daily Kos is proud to endorse @ConorLambPA in the #PA18 special election, which has Republicans so worried that Donald Trump is coming to town today" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  112. ^ "EDITORIAL In 18th district election, Lamb is the best choice". Observer-Reporter. March 11, 2018.
  113. ^ Monmouth University
  114. ^ RABA Research
  115. ^ Gravis Marketing
  116. ^ Emerson College
  117. ^ Gravis Marketing
  118. ^ Monmouth University
  119. ^ DFM Research (D) Archived January 22, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
  120. ^ Gravis Marketing
  121. ^ "Allegheny County's District 18 special election results are finally official". The Incline. Retrieved April 3, 2018.
  122. ^ Chamberlain, Samuel (March 14, 2018). "Democrat Lamb declares victory in Pa. special election determined too close to call". Fox News.
  123. ^ Kornacki, Steve [@SteveKornacki] (March 14, 2018). "We have the Washington numbers and NBC is calling Conor Lamb the apparent winner in PA-18" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  124. ^ Drum, Kevin (March 14, 2018). "Conor Lamb officially wins Pennsylvania election". Mother Jones.
  125. ^ "It's official: Democrat Conor Lamb wins Pennsylvania special election in major upset". Vox. Retrieved March 14, 2018.
  126. ^ Schneider, Elena (March 14, 2018). "Republicans prepare for recount in Pennsylvania special election". Politico. Retrieved March 14, 2018.
  127. ^ Marc Levy (March 21, 2018). "Republican Rick Saccone Concedes to Democrat Conor Lamb in Pennsylvania Race". NBC Philadelphia. Retrieved March 22, 2018.
  128. ^ a b Julian Routh (April 2, 2018). "Finally official: Conor Lamb certified winner of congressional seat". Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Retrieved April 3, 2018.
  129. ^ Election results from CNN

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