2018 Oregon gubernatorial election
The 2018 Oregon gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor of Oregon to serve a full four-year term. In the 2016 special election , Democratic governor Kate Brown had been elected to serve the last two years of John Kitzhaber 's term.[ 1]
The Republican Party nominated Knute Buehler , her opponent in the 2012 Oregon Secretary of State election ; the Independent Party of Oregon nominated Patrick Starnes. Brown, running for a full term, won the election; because of term limits, she became ineligible to seek the governorship again.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
Endorsements
Kate Brown
U.S. senators
Organizations
Results
Results by county: 40–50%
50–60%
60–70%
70–80%
80–90%
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
Withdrew
Bruce Cuff, real estate broker and candidate for governor in 2014 and 2016 (endorsed Greg Wooldridge)[ 3] [ 17]
Declined
Endorsements
Knute Buehler
U.S. senators
State legislators
Greg Barreto , state representative[ 26]
Cliff Bentz , state senator[ 26]
Daniel Bonham , state representative[ 26]
Sal Esquivel , state representative[ 9] [ 27]
Lynn Findley , state representative[ 26]
Bill Hansell , state senator[ 28]
Dallas Heard , state representative[ 29]
Mike McLane , state representative[ 26]
Ron Noble , state representative[ 26]
Andy Olson , state representative[ 26]
E. Werner Reschke , state representative[ 30]
Gene Whisnant , state representative[ 31] [ 9]
Individuals
Rob Harris, co-chair of the Independent Party of Oregon[ 32]
Antoinette Hatfield, former first lady of Oregon[ 33]
Phil Knight , businessman, co-founder of Nike [ 34] [ 9]
Organizations
Newspapers
Greg Wooldridge
State legislators
Organizations
Debates
Host network
Date
Link(s)
Participants
Knute Buehler
Sam Carpenter
Greg Wooldridge
KXL-FM
May 11, 2018
[ 51]
Invited
Invited
Invited
Polling
Results
Results by county: 30–40%
40–50%
50–60%
60–70%
Independent Party primary
Candidates
Declared
Skye Allen[ 3]
Dan Pistoresi[ 3]
Patrick Starnes[ 3]
Results
General election
Debates
Complete video of debate , October 2, 2018
Third party debate , featuring Nick Chen (L), Patrick Starnes (I), and Chris Henry (P), hosted by former Green Party candidate Alex DiBlasi, October 6, 2018
Complete video of debate , October 9, 2018
Predictions
Source
Ranking
As of
The Cook Political Report [ 56]
Tossup
October 26, 2018
The Washington Post [ 57]
Tossup
November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight [ 58]
Likely D
November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report [ 59]
Tilt D
November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [ 60]
Lean D
November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics [ 61]
Tossup
November 4, 2018
Daily Kos [ 62]
Lean D
November 5, 2018
Fox News [ 63] [ b]
Lean D
November 5, 2018
Politico [ 64]
Lean D
November 5, 2018
Governing [ 65]
Tossup
November 5, 2018
Notes
^ Bruce Cuff and Jeff Smith with 3%
^ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races
Polling
Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation
Dates administered
Dates updated
Kate Brown (D)
Knute Buehler (R)
Other/Undecided[ a]
Margin
Real Clear Politics [ 66]
October 4–30, 2018
October 30, 2018
44.0%
39.7%
16.3%
Brown +4.3%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Kate Brown (D)
Knute Buehler (R)
Patrick Starnes (IPO)
Other
Undecided
Hoffman Research Group [ 67]
October 29–30, 2018
694
± 3.7%
45%
42%
4%
2%[ 68]
7%
Emerson College [ 69]
October 26–28, 2018
747
± 3.7%
47%
42%
–
7%
4%
DHM Research [ 70]
October 4–11, 2018
500
± 4.4%
40%
35%
4%
3%[ 71]
17%
Riley Research Associates [ 72]
September 24 – October 7, 2018
356
± 5.0%
49%
45%
4%
3%[ 73]
–
Clout Research (R)[ 74]
September 20–23, 2018
679
± 3.8%
42%
41%
–
–
–
Hoffman Research Group [ 75]
September 12–13, 2018
680
± 3.8%
46%
36%
4%
2%[ 68]
12%
Causeway Solutions (R-No Supermajorities PAC)[ 76]
September 6–11, 2018
2,831
± 2.0%
41%
43%
–
–
–
Clout Research (R)[ 77]
July 30–31, 2018
559
± 4.1%
42%
43%
–
–
15%
Gravis Marketing [ 78]
July 16–17, 2018
770
± 3.5%
45%
45%
–
–
10%
Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter)[ 54]
March 19–25, 2018
2,067
± 2.2%
41%
46%
–
–
14%
DHM Research [ 79]
January 25–31, 2018
604
± 4.0%
46%
29%
–
–
25%
Zogby Analytics [ 80]
November 10–12, 2017
508
± 4.4%
39%
36%
–
–
25%
iCitizen [ 55]
September 13–28, 2017
645
± 3.9%
41%
40%
–
11%
8%
Hypothetical polling
with Sam Carpenter
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Kate Brown (D)
Sam Carpenter (R)
Other
Undecided
Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter)[ 54]
March 19–25, 2018
2,067
± 2.2%
41%
46%
–
13%
Zogby Analytics [ 80]
November 10–12, 2017
508
± 4.4%
38%
36%
–
26%
with Greg Wooldridge
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Kate Brown (D)
Greg Wooldridge (R)
Other
Undecided
Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter)[ 54]
March 19–25, 2018
2,067
± 2.2%
42%
47%
–
11%
iCitizen [ 55]
September 13–28, 2017
645
± 3.9%
42%
39%
11%
7%
with Lori Chavez-DeRemer
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Kate Brown (D)
Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R)
Other
Undecided
iCitizen [ 55]
September 13–28, 2017
645
± 3.9%
40%
34%
17%
8%
Results
By congressional district
Brown carried two out of the state's five congressional districts, losing two swing districts that simultaneously voted for Democrats in the US House, with Oregon's 4th congressional district held by veteran congressman Peter DeFazio and Oregon's 5th congressional district held by former veterinarian Kurt Schrader .[ 82]
By county
County
Kate Brown
Democrat
Votes
Knute Buehler
Republican
Votes
Patrick Starnes
Independent
Votes
Nick Chen
Libertarian
Votes
Aaron Auer
Constitution
Votes
Chris Henry
Progressive
Votes
Write-in
Votes
Total
Baker
19.0%
1,572
72.9%
6,023
4.2%
347
1.6%
132
1.5%
126
0.6%
49
0.2%
15
8,264
Benton
60.1%
26,592
33.9%
14,990
2.8%
1,225
1.6%
721
0.8%
357
0.7%
293
0.1%
53
44,231
Clackamas
45.5%
91,088
49.2%
98,468
2.4%
4,726
1.4%
2,827
0.9%
1,853
0.5%
941
0.2%
363
200,266
Clatsop
48.0%
8,909
44.7%
8,294
3.3%
616
1.6%
305
1.4%
259
0.8%
140
0.2%
35
18,558
Columbia
38.7%
9,519
52.6%
12,953
4.0%
975
1.9%
480
2.0%
481
0.7%
167
0.2%
42
24,617
Coos
33.5%
9,622
57.5%
16,520
4.4%
1,262
1.8%
505
1.8%
510
0.9%
256
0.2%
52
28,727
Crook
19.8%
2,285
73.8%
8,516
3.6%
418
1.0%
110
1.2%
140
0.4%
42
0.2%
25
11,536
Curry
35.9%
4,141
56.1%
6,474
3.8%
443
1.6%
188
1.7%
199
0.7%
75
0.1%
13
11,533
Deschutes
42.3%
40,676
52.0%
49,983
2.9%
2,764
1.4%
1,353
0.8%
766
0.5%
460
0.1%
97
96,099
Douglas
24.0%
11,824
65.8%
32,413
5.0%
2,481
1.5%
738
2.7%
1,326
0.7%
368
0.2%
88
49,238
Gilliam
22.0%
218
69.6%
691
4.6%
46
1.9%
19
1.4%
14
0.5%
5
0.0%
0
993
Grant
16.8%
649
75.9%
2,923
3.9%
151
1.2%
48
1.5%
56
0.5%
19
0.2%
7
3,853
Harney
16.5%
584
76.7%
2,722
3.6%
126
0.8%
29
1.8%
63
0.6%
20
0.1%
3
3,547
Hood River
59.9%
6,485
35.0%
3,789
2.5%
271
1.3%
136
0.7%
81
0.5%
55
0.1%
11
10,828
Jackson
41.4%
42,207
50.7%
51,623
4.1%
4,196
1.7%
1,720
1.3%
1,313
0.7%
716
0.1%
132
101,907
Jefferson
29.8%
2,635
62.3%
5,518
4.4%
388
1.3%
111
1.6%
145
0.5%
45
0.1%
10
8,852
Josephine
30.2%
12,214
60.5%
24,499
4.3%
1,735
1.9%
767
2.2%
881
0.8%
308
0.2%
66
40,470
Klamath
22.3%
6,301
67.7%
19,134
4.9%
1,371
2.3%
643
2.0%
564
0.7%
198
0.2%
45
28,256
Lake
13.4%
476
78.0%
2,774
4.4%
155
1.5%
52
2.3%
81
0.4%
14
0.1%
5
3,557
Lane
54.7%
96,841
38.2%
67,737
3.2%
5,683
1.8%
3,106
1.2%
2,173
0.8%
1,335
0.2%
297
177,172
Lincoln
52.1%
12,610
40.8%
9,884
3.4%
825
1.6%
391
1.2%
302
0.7%
164
0.2%
43
24,219
Linn
30.1%
16,461
60.5%
33,051
4.2%
2,293
1.9%
1,061
2.2%
1,204
0.8%
421
0.3%
171
54,662
Malheur
24.1%
2,159
66.9%
6,000
4.1%
364
1.7%
156
2.5%
227
0.6%
52
0.1%
12
8,970
Marion
43.5%
55,238
49.9%
63,323
2.8%
3,511
1.7%
2,100
1.4%
1,831
0.5%
650
0.3%
325
126,978
Morrow
22.5%
844
67.5%
2,534
4.3%
163
1.8%
68
3.0%
111
0.8%
29
0.1%
5
3,754
Multnomah
73.9%
279,384
22.1%
83,507
1.7%
6,309
1.2%
4,447
0.5%
1,793
0.6%
2,174
0.1%
484
378,098
Polk
41.6%
15,529
51.8%
19,341
2.9%
1,076
1.6%
589
1.3%
491
0.6%
206
0.2%
83
37,315
Sherman
19.3%
190
74.7%
736
3.5%
34
0.7%
7
1.5%
15
0.2%
2
0.1%
1
985
Tillamook
42.7%
5,616
50.3%
6,606
3.5%
464
1.2%
158
1.5%
202
0.6%
77
0.1%
19
13,142
Umatilla
29.4%
7,085
63.0%
15,178
3.7%
885
1.7%
419
1.6%
393
0.5%
117
0.1%
31
24,108
Union
24.5%
2,877
67.9%
7,983
3.8%
441
1.4%
162
1.8%
209
0.5%
60
0.2%
24
11,756
Wallowa
27.0%
1,088
66.2%
2,668
3.6%
145
1.2%
47
1.5%
61
0.5%
19
0.1%
4
4,032
Wasco
40.5%
4,604
51.4%
5,841
3.8%
427
1.8%
203
1.6%
177
0.7%
85
0.2%
20
11,357
Washington
55.5%
137,886
39.2%
97,286
2.2%
5,535
1.7%
4,229
0.8%
2,010
0.5%
1,161
0.1%
372
248,479
Wheeler
19.3%
158
72.6%
594
4.6%
38
1.8%
15
1.2%
10
0.4%
3
0.0%
0
818
Yamhill
39.1%
17,931
53.3%
24,412
3.3%
1,503
1.9%
885
1.6%
721
0.6%
287
0.2%
81
45,820
Notes
^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
References
^ KOIN 6 News Staff (November 8, 2016). "Kate Brown wins 2-year term as Oregon governor" . KOIN 6 News. Archived from the original on November 9, 2016. Retrieved November 15, 2016 . {{cite web }}
: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link )
^ Borrud, Hillary (September 25, 2017). "Kate Brown announces she will seek re-election" . The Oregonian . Retrieved September 26, 2017 .
^ a b c d e f g h i j k Radnovich, Connor (March 7, 2018). "17 people running for Oregon governor, the most crowded field in two decades" . Statesman Journal . Retrieved March 8, 2018 .
^ Warner, Gary A. (August 7, 2017). "Political parties rev up for 2018 election" . The Bulletin . Retrieved August 19, 2017 .
^ Riley, John (November 14, 2017). "Victory Fund endorses Rich Madeleno for governor" . Metro Weekly . Retrieved February 7, 2018 .
^ Lee, Steve (October 5, 2017). "HRC endorses Oregon Gov. Kate Brown for re-election" . LGBT Weekly . Archived from the original on October 6, 2017. Retrieved October 14, 2017 .
^ "Human Rights Campaign Endorses Oregon Governor Brown for Re-Election" . Go Local PDX . October 5, 2017. Retrieved October 14, 2017 .
^ "Oregon AFL-CIO Endorses Kate Brown for Governor" . Oregon AFL-CIO . September 9, 2017. Archived from the original on October 15, 2017. Retrieved October 14, 2017 .
^ a b c d e f Warner, Gary A. (October 9, 2017). "Capitol roundup: Oregon House seats up for grabs" . The Bulletin . Retrieved November 6, 2017 .
^ "Planned Parenthood Backs Oregon Governor's Election Bid" . Oregon Patch. October 25, 2017. Retrieved November 6, 2017 .
^ a b c Warner, Gary A. (August 3, 2017). "Bend's Buehler running for governor" . The Bulletin . Retrieved August 3, 2017 .
^ Achen, Paris (August 31, 2017). "A pro-Trump alternative in the governor's race?" . Portland Tribune . Retrieved September 1, 2017 .
^ "Bend businessman Sam Carpenter declares bid for governor" . KTVZ. October 25, 2017. Archived from the original on October 29, 2017. Retrieved October 28, 2017 .
^ Achen, Paris (October 25, 2017). "Bend businessman Sam Carpenter to run for governor" . East Oregonian . Retrieved October 28, 2017 .
^ "Oregon Secretary Of State" . secure.sos.state.or.us . Retrieved February 18, 2018 .
^ Hubbard, Saul (February 3, 2018). "Portland political conservative makes late entry into Oregon gubernatorial race" . The Register-Guard . Archived from the original on February 3, 2018. Retrieved February 3, 2018 .
^ Withycombe, Claire (April 26, 2018). "GOP gubernatorial candidate drops out of race" . Portland Tribune . Archived from the original on April 27, 2018.
^ Jaquiss, Nigel (June 26, 2017). "First Potential GOP Challenger For Gov. Kate Brown Surfaces" . Willamette Week . Retrieved July 9, 2017 .
^ Borrud, Hillary (October 10, 2017). "Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer will not run for Oregon governor in 2018" . The Oregonian . Retrieved October 11, 2017 .
^ a b Achen, Paris (October 31, 2017). "Social conservatives seek governor's candidate" . Portland Tribune . Retrieved November 6, 2017 .
^ "House Minority Leader Mike McLane Rules Out Run for Governor in 2018" . wweek.com . September 6, 2017.
^ Lehman, Chris (November 8, 2016). "Oregon Elects Kate Brown As Governor" . Oregon Public Broadcasting. Retrieved November 15, 2016 .
^ Skelley, Geoffrey; Kondik, Kyle (April 20, 2017). "Competitive races abound as GOP plays defense in many open seats" . Sabato's Crystal Ball . Retrieved May 6, 2017 .
^ Borrud, Hillary (August 23, 2017). "Secretary of State Dennis Richardson announces he will not run for governor" . The Oregonian . Retrieved August 24, 2017 .
^ Warner, Gary A. (September 19, 2017). "Governor candidates at the Pendleton Round-Up" . The Bulletin . Retrieved September 24, 2017 .
^ a b c d e f g "Lawmakers Endorse Knute Buehler" . Knute Buehler for Governor .
^ Esquivel, Sal (August 8, 2017). "Esquivel: Knute Buehler is the Leader Oregon Needs" . Oregon Catalyst . Retrieved November 6, 2017 .
^ "Letter: Hansell supports Buehler in GOP race" . East Oregonian . April 27, 2018.
^ "I'm proud to endorse fellow Roseburg native, friend and colleague Knute Buehler for Governor. He'll bring the..." Twitter . October 7, 2017.
^ E. Werner Reschke. "I support Dr. Knute Buehler for Governor" . Twitter .
^ Warner, Gary A. (August 14, 2017). "Where were you in '82?" . The Bulletin . Retrieved August 19, 2017 .
^ Knute Buehler. "Proud to have the endorsement of the Independent Party Co-Chair Rob Harris. We need new leadership to solve the big problems in our state. I will lead where Kate Brown has failed. #orpol #knuteforgov" . Twitter .
^ Knute Buehler. "Honored to have the support of a woman who has dedicated her life to making Oregon a better place and to call her a friend. #orpol #knuteforgov" . Twitter .
^ Borrud, Hillary (August 16, 2017). "Phil Knight contributes $500,000 to Republican gubernatorial candidate Knute Buehler" . The Oregonian . Retrieved August 19, 2017 .
^ "NFIB Oregon PAC Endorses Knute Buehler for Governor" . NFIB . August 13, 2018.
^ a b "Letter: Cattlemen's Association, Farm Bureau endorse Buehler" . Capital Press . October 24, 2018.
^ "Our View: Buehler would bring change as governor" . Blue Mountain Eagle . October 23, 2018.
^ "Editorial: Vote Buehler in Republican primary" . The Bulletin . April 23, 2018.
^ "Editorial: Buehler the best choice for Oregon" . The Bulletin . October 17, 2018. Retrieved October 18, 2018 .
^ McInally, Mike (October 17, 2018). "Editorial: Knute Buehler for governor of Oregon" . Corvallis Gazette-Times .
^ "Our View: Leadership needed for Oregon" . The Daily Astorian . October 22, 2018.
^ "Buehler for Governor" . East Oregonian . October 23, 2018. Retrieved October 24, 2018 .
^ "Oregon needs experience, decisive leadership to improve: Editorial endorsements" . The Oregonian . April 29, 2018. Retrieved May 4, 2018 .
^ "Editorial endorsement: Knute Buehler for Oregon governor" . The Oregonian . October 14, 2018. Retrieved October 16, 2018 .
^ "Our opinion: Vote for Buehler in GOP governor primary" . Portland Tribune . May 7, 2018. Archived from the original on May 12, 2018. Retrieved May 11, 2018 .
^ "Our Opinion: Buehler brings necessary tension" . Portland Tribune . October 16, 2018. Archived from the original on October 17, 2018. Retrieved October 16, 2018 .
^ "For governor: Brown, Buehler" . The Register-Guard . April 28, 2018. Archived from the original on May 5, 2018. Retrieved May 4, 2018 .
^ "WW's May 2018 Endorsements for Oregon Statewide Office" . Willamette Week . April 25, 2018.
^ "Bill Post endorses Capt. Greg Wooldridge for governor" . Wooldridge For Governor . April 18, 2018. Archived from the original on April 28, 2018. Retrieved April 28, 2018 .
^ "ENDORSEMENT: Right to Life endorses Wooldridge" . Wooldridge For Governor . March 8, 2018. Archived from the original on April 28, 2018. Retrieved April 28, 2018 .
^ Lars Larson Debate – YouTube
^ Global Strategy Group (D)
^ Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter)
^ a b c d Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter)
^ a b c d iCitizen
^ "2018 Governor Race Ratings for October 26, 2018" . The Cook Political Report . Retrieved April 10, 2021 .
^ "The Washington Post's gubernatorial race ratings" . The Washington Post . October 16, 2018.
^ "2018 Governor Forecast" . FiveThirtyEight . October 17, 2018. Archived from the original on October 18, 2018. Retrieved October 17, 2018 .
^ "2018 Gubernatorial Ratings | Inside Elections" . insideelections.com . Retrieved November 15, 2017 .
^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Governor" . www.centerforpolitics.org . Retrieved November 15, 2017 .
^ "2018 Governor Races" . RealClearPolitics . October 9, 2018.
^ "2018 Governor Race Ratings" . Daily Kos . June 5, 2018.[permanent dead link ]
^ "2018 Midterm Power Ranking" . Fox News .
^ "Politico Race Ratings" . Politico .
^ "2018 Governor Elections: As November Nears, More Governors' Races Become Tossups" . www.governing.com . Archived from the original on October 21, 2018. Retrieved July 18, 2018 .
^ Real Clear Politics
^ Hoffman Research Group
^ a b Aaron Auer (C) and Nick Chen (L) with 1%
^ Emerson College
^ DHM Research
^ Nick Chen (L) and Chris Henry (P) with 1%, Aaron Auer (C) with <1%, somebody else with 1%
^ Riley Research Associates
^ Nick Chen (L) with 2%, Aaron Aauer (C) with 1%
^ Clout Research (R)
^ Hoffman Research Group
^ Causeway Solutions (R-No Supermajorities PAC)
^ Clout Research (R)
^ Gravis Marketing
^ DHM Research
^ a b Zogby Analytics
^ Content Manager WebDrawer – 2018 General Election Official Results
^ https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::d0da4067-8219-48b6-9403-6bb5782d2dba
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