2018 Hawaii gubernatorial election

For related races, see 2018 United States gubernatorial elections.

2018 Hawaii gubernatorial election
← 2014 November 6, 2018 2022 →
 
Nominee David Ige Andria Tupola
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate Josh Green Marissa Kerns
Popular vote 244,934 131,719
Percentage 62.67% 33.70%
County results
Ige:      60–70%      70–80%
Governor before election

David Ige
Democratic

Elected Governor

David Ige
Democratic

Elections in Hawaii
Federal government
Presidential elections
Presidential primaries
Democratic
2000
2004
2008
2016
2020
2024
Republican
2008
2012
2016
2024
U.S. Senate elections
U.S. House of Representatives elections
State government
Gubernatorial elections
Senate elections
House of Representatives elections
Hawaiian Kingdom era
House of Representatives
Ballot measures
1998
Honolulu
Mayoral elections

The 2018 Hawaii gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor of Hawaii and lieutenant governor of Hawaii.

After prevailing in an intensely competitive primary election on August 11, 2018, incumbent Democratic governor David Ige ran successfully for re-election to a second term in office, considerably improving on his margin of victory from 2014, in which he only won a plurality.

Republicans Andria Tupola and Marissa Kerns headed one of two 2018 major-party gubernatorial tickets that included two women. The other such ticket had Idaho's 2018 Democratic nominees for governor and lieutenant governor, Paulette Jordan and Kristin Collum.[1] This was Hawaii's only gubernatorial election since 1994 without Linda Lingle or Duke Aiona as the Republican nominee, as well as the first since the 1990 election in which the winner was of a different party than the incumbent president. As of 2023, this election was the only time since 1998 that an incumbent Democratic governor of Hawaii was re-elected.

Democratic primary

Governor

Candidates

Declared
Withdrew

Debates

Dates Location Ige Hanabusa Link
July 6, 2018 Honolulu, Hawaii Participant Participant Full debate – YouTube

Endorsements

Colleen Hanabusa

Individuals

Organizations

  • Hawaii Regional Council of Carpenters[13]
  • Hawaii Government Employees Association[13]
  • State of Hawaii Organization of Police Officers[13]
  • International Union of Operating Engineers[13]
  • International Longshore and Warehouse Union[13]
  • Hawaii Building and Construction Trades Council[13]
  • University of Hawaii Professional Assembly[13]
  • International Union of Painters and Associated Trades[13]
  • Laborers' International Union of North America[13]
  • Hawaii Fire Fighters Association[13]
  • Hawaii State AFL-CIO[13]
  • Seafarers International Union[13]
David Ige

Individuals

Organizations

  • Hawaii State Teachers Association[13]
  • United Public Workers[13]
  • Unite Here Local 5[13]
  • Ironworkers Union[13]
  • Plasterers & Cement Masons Union[13]
  • Hawaii Association of Public Accountants[13]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		David
Ige 		Colleen
Hanabusa 		Clayton
Hee 		Undecided
Merriman River Group[14] July 19–21, 2018 871 ± 3.3% 43% 34% – 18%
Mason-Dixon[15] July 6–11, 2018 494 ± 4.5% 44% 40% – 16%
QMark Research (D-Hanabusa)[16] June 21 – July 6, 2018 518 ± 4.4% 31% 57% – 11%
QMark Research (D-Hanabusa)[17] April 21 – May 7, 2018 888 ± 3.4% 23% 52% 6% 19%
Merriman River Group[18] May 3–5, 2018 707 ± 3.7% 31% 37% 11% 16%
Mason-Dixon[19] March 13–18, 2018 498 ± 4.5% 27% 47% 11% 15%

Results

Results by county:
  Ige—50–60%
  Ige—40–50%
  Hanabusa—40–50%
  No data
Democratic primary results[20]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic David Ige (incumbent) 124,572 51.4
Democratic Colleen Hanabusa 107,631 44.4
Democratic Ernest Caravalho 5,662 2.3
Democratic Wendell Ka'ehu'ae'a 2,298 0.9
Democratic Richard Kim 1,576 0.6
Democratic Van Tanabe 775 0.3
Total votes 242,514 100.0

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Endorsements

Kim Coco Iwamoto

Organizations

  • UNITE Here Local 5[27]

Individuals

Jill Tokuda

Organizations

  • University of Hawaii Professional Assembly[29]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Bernard
Carvalho 		Will
Espero 		Josh
Green 		Kim Coco
Iwamoto 		Jill
Tokuda 		Undecided
Merriman River Group[30] July 19–21, 2018 871 ± 3.3% 13% 5% 31% 10% 17% 26%
Mason-Dixon[15] July 6–11, 2018 494 ± 4.5% 14% 6% 34% 10% 14% 22%
Merriman River Group[31] May 3–5, 2018 707 ± 3.7% 19% 8% 16% 14% 11% 32%
Mason-Dixon[19] March 13–18, 2018 498 ± 4.5% 14% 9% 19% 5% 12% 41%

Results

Results by county:
  Green—50–60%
  Green—30–40%
  Tokuda—30–40%
  Carvalho—40–50%
  No data
Democratic primary results[20]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Josh Green 74,845 31.4
Democratic Jill Tokuda 68,124 28.6
Democratic Bernard Carvalho 45,825 19.2
Democratic Kim Coco Iwamoto 34,243 14.3
Democratic Will Espero 15,463 6.5
Total votes 238,500 100.0

Republican primary

Governor

Candidates

Declared
  • John Carroll, former state representative, and former state senator[7][32]
  • Ray L'Heureux, president and chairman of the Education Institute of Hawaii, former assistant superintendent, and retired U.S. Marine colonel[33]
  • Andria Tupola, Minority Leader of the Hawaii House of Representatives[34][32]
Withdrew

Endorsements

Andria Tupola

Newspapers

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		John
Carroll 		Raymond
L'Heureux 		Andria
Tupola 		Undecided
Merriman River Group[38] July 19–21, 2018 219 ± 6.6% 22% 4% 39% 22%
Mason-Dixon[39] July 6–11, 2018 143 ± 8.4% 28% 8% 41% 23%
Mason-Dixon[19] March 13–18, 2018 134 ± 8.6% 40% – 28% 32%

Results

Results by county:
  Tupola—50–60%
  Tupola—40–50%
  No data
Republican primary results[20]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Andria Tupola 17,297 55.5
Republican John Carroll 10,974 35.2
Republican Ray L'Heureux 2,885 9.3
Total votes 31,156 100.0

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Declared
  • Marissa Kerns
  • Steve Lipscomb
  • Jeremy Low

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Marissa
Kerns 		Jeremy
Low 		Undecided
Merriman River Group[40] July 19–21, 2018 219 ± 6.6% 26% 20% 54%

Results

Results by county:
  Kerns—30–40%
  Lipscomb—30–40%
  No data
Republican primary results[20]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Marissa Dipasupil Kerns 9,758 35.4
Republican Steve Lipscomb 9,543 34.7
Republican Jeremy Low 8,232 29.9
Total votes 27,533 100.0

Green primary

Governor

Candidates

Declared
  • Jim Brewer

Results

Results by county:
  Brewer—100%
  No data
Green primary results[20]
Party Candidate Votes %
Green Jim Brewer 454 100.0
Total votes 454 100.0

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Declared
  • Renee Ing

Results

Results by county:
  Ing—100%
  No data
Green primary results[20]
Party Candidate Votes %
Green Renee Ing 444 100.0
Total votes 444 100.0

Nonpartisan primary

Governor

Candidates

Declared
  • Selina Blackwell
  • Link El
  • Terrence Teruya
Results
Results by county:
  Teruya—50–60%
  Blackwell—40–50%
  Blackwell—50–60%
  No data
Nonpartisan primary results[20]
Party Candidate Votes %
Nonpartisan Terrence Teruya 543 47.7
Nonpartisan Selina Blackwell 497 43.7
Nonpartisan Link El 98 8.6
Total votes 1,138 100.0

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Declared
  • Ernest Magaoay
  • Paul Robotti
Results
Results by county:
  Robotti—50–60%
  Magaoay—50–60%
  No Data
Nonpartisan primary results[20]
Party Candidate Votes %
Nonpartisan Paul Robotti 536 50.6
Nonpartisan Ernest Magaoay 523 49.4
Total votes 1,059 100.0

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[41] Safe D October 26, 2018
The Washington Post[42] Safe D November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[43] Safe D November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[44] Safe D November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[45] Safe D November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[46] Safe D November 4, 2018
Daily Kos[47] Safe D November 5, 2018
Fox News[48][a] Likely D November 5, 2018
Politico[49] Safe D November 5, 2018
Governing[50] Safe D November 5, 2018
Notes
  1. ^ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Debates

Dates Location Ige Tupola Link
October 29, 2018 Honolulu, Hawaii Participant Participant Full debate[51] – C-SPAN

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		David
Ige (D) 		Andria
Tupola (R) 		Undecided
Merriman River Group[52] October 8–12, 2018 961 ± 4.3% 52% 31% 11%
Mason-Dixon[53] July 6–11, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 57% 34% 9%
Mason-Dixon[19] March 13–18, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 51% 24% 25%
Hypothetical polling

with David Ige and John Carroll

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		David
Ige (D) 		John
Carroll (R) 		Undecided
Mason-Dixon[53] July 6–11, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 62% 23% 15%
Mason-Dixon[19] March 13–18, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 52% 27% 21%

with David Ige and Raymond L'Heureux

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		David
Ige (D) 		Raymond
L'Heureux (R) 		Undecided
Mason-Dixon[53] July 6–11, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 67% 20% 13%

with Colleen Hanabusa and John Carroll

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Colleen
Hanabusa (D) 		John
Carroll (R) 		Undecided
Mason-Dixon[53] July 6–11, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 51% 31% 18%
Mason-Dixon[19] March 13–18, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 57% 31% 12%

with Colleen Hanabusa and Andria Tupola

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Colleen
Hanabusa (D) 		Andria
Tupola (R) 		Undecided
Mason-Dixon[53] July 6–11, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 48% 35% 17%
Mason-Dixon[19] March 13–18, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 56% 28% 16%

with Colleen Hanabusa and Raymond L'Heureux

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Colleen
Hanabusa (D) 		Raymond
L'Heureux (R) 		Undecided
Mason-Dixon[53] July 6–11, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 58% 26% 16%

Results

Hawaii gubernatorial election, 2018[54]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic David Ige (incumbent) 244,934 62.67% Increase13.22
Republican Andria Tupola 131,719 33.70% Decrease 3.38
Green Jim Brewer 10,123 2.59% N/A
Nonpartisan Terrence Teruya 4,067 1.04% N/A
Total votes 390,843 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

By congressional district

Ige won both congressional districts.[55]

District Ige Tupola Representative
1st 64% 33% Colleen Hanabusa (117th Congress)
Ed Case (118th Congress)
2nd 61% 35% Tulsi Gabbard

References

  1. ^ Trahant, Mark (August 19, 2018). "Idaho is no longer safe for Republicans; Paulette Jordan trails by 8 points". Indian Country Today. Retrieved December 2, 2019 – via News Maven.
  2. ^ "Ernest Caravalho". Ballotpedia. Retrieved July 6, 2018.
  3. ^ a b c Singer, Jeff (June 6, 2017). "Why several Hawaii Democrats are mulling primary bids against Gov. David Ige". Daily Kos. Retrieved June 6, 2017.
  4. ^ a b Hooser, Gary (August 9, 2017). "Brace yourselves, primaries are coming". The Garden Island. Archived from the original on August 15, 2017. Retrieved August 22, 2017.
  5. ^ "U.S. Rep. Hanabusa announces plans to run for governor". Hawaii News Now. September 1, 2017. Retrieved September 1, 2017.
  6. ^ Callis, Tom (January 3, 2016). "Green saving up for run at higher office". Hawaii Tribune-Herald. Archived from the original on November 16, 2016. Retrieved November 15, 2016.
  7. ^ a b Cook Lauer, Nancy (January 6, 2018). "Familiar candidate aims for governor". West Hawaii Today. Archived from the original on January 6, 2018. Retrieved January 7, 2018.
  8. ^ Blair, Chad (February 27, 2018). "Former Sen. Clayton Hee Is Running For Governor". Honolulu Civil Beat. Retrieved February 28, 2018.
  9. ^ Blair, Chad (June 4, 2018). "Clayton Hee Withdraws From Hawaii Governor's Race". Honolulu Civil Beat. Retrieved June 8, 2018.
  10. ^ a b "Ige's New Campaign Ad Features Endorsement From Mayor Kim". Big Island Video News. July 28, 2018. Retrieved November 28, 2021.
  11. ^ Blair, Chad (January 24, 2018). "Gabbard Shakes Up Governor's Race By Endorsing Hanabusa". Honolulu Civil Beat. Retrieved November 28, 2021.
  12. ^ HNN Staff (March 27, 2018). "Former lieutenant governor endorses Ige challenger". Hawaii News Now. Retrieved November 28, 2021.
  13. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r Eagle, Nathan (July 11, 2018). "Why Union Support Matters In The Hawaii Governor's Racev". Honolulu Civil Beat. Retrieved November 28, 2021.
  14. ^ Merriman River Group
  15. ^ a b Mason-Dixon
  16. ^ QMark Research (D-Hanabusa)
  17. ^ QMark Research (D-Hanabusa)
  18. ^ Merriman River Group
  19. ^ a b c d e f g Mason-Dixon
  20. ^ a b c d e f g h "Primary Election 2018 -State of Hawaii – Statewide" (PDF). Hawaii Office of Elections. Retrieved August 12, 2018.
  21. ^ "Kauai Mayor Bernard Carvalho Jr. to run for lieutenant governor". KHON 2. October 26, 2017. Retrieved November 5, 2017.
  22. ^ a b "Sens. Green, Espero announce runs for lieutenant governor in 2018". Hawaii News Now. September 1, 2017. Retrieved September 1, 2017.
  23. ^ Cook Lauer, Nancy (June 13, 2017). "3 show interest in Green's seat as senator eyes lieutenant gov bid". Hawaii Tribune-Herald. Archived from the original on August 23, 2017. Retrieved August 22, 2017.
  24. ^ "Kim Coco Iwamoto announces bid for Lieutenant Governor". Island News KITV 4. November 5, 2017. Archived from the original on February 8, 2018. Retrieved November 5, 2017.
  25. ^ "Maui Mayor Arakawa says he plans to run for lieutenant governor". Hawaii News Now. May 26, 2017. Retrieved November 5, 2017.
  26. ^ Pignataro, Anthony (April 3, 2018). "Maui Mayor Alan Arakawa to hold $1,000/person fundraiser at swanky Waikiki restaurant". MauiTime. Retrieved April 15, 2018.
  27. ^ Cocke, Sophie (June 13, 2018). "Local 5 endorses Kim Coco Iwamoto for lieutenant governor". Honolulu Civil Beat. Retrieved November 28, 2021.
  28. ^ Foley, Daniel (March 30, 2018). "Campaign Corner: Kim Coco Iwamoto The Only True Progressive LG Candidate". Honolulu Civil Beat. Honolulu Civil Beat. Retrieved December 29, 2022.
  29. ^ "UHPA Endorses Jill Tokuda for Lt. Governor".
  30. ^ Merriman River Group
  31. ^ Merriman River Group
  32. ^ a b Daverta, Jobeth (January 21, 2018). "Hawaii minority leader Rep. Andria Tupola enters gubernatorial race". Hawaii News Now. Retrieved January 26, 2018.
  33. ^ Dible, Max (April 14, 2018). "Republican candidates for state office stump in Kona". West Hawaii Today.
  34. ^ "The Hawaii Republican Party has a new chair". Retrieved April 5, 2018.
  35. ^ Nagaoka, Ashley (May 12, 2017). "McDermott touts leadership, officialy [sic] enters 2018 race for governor". Hawaii News Now. Retrieved May 13, 2017.
  36. ^ Dayton, Kevin (August 29, 2017). "Rep. McDermott withdraws from governor's race". Honolulu Star-Advertiser. Retrieved August 30, 2017.
  37. ^ Beers, Axel (August 2, 2018). "MauiTime endorses Andria Tupola for governor (Republican) in 2018 Primary Election". Maui Time.
  38. ^ Merriman River Group
  39. ^ Mason-Dixon
  40. ^ Merriman River Group
  41. ^ "2018 Governor Race Ratings for October 26, 2018". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved April 10, 2021.
  42. ^ "The Washington Post's gubernatorial race ratings". The Washington Post. October 16, 2018.
  43. ^ "2018 Governor Forecast | FiveThirtyEight". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 17, 2018.
  44. ^ "2018 Gubernatorial Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved November 15, 2017.
  45. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball – 2018 Governor". www.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved November 15, 2017.
  46. ^ "2018 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. October 9, 2018.
  47. ^ "2018 Governor Race Ratings". Daily Kos. June 5, 2018.
  48. ^ "2018 Midterm Power Ranking". Fox News.
  49. ^ "Politico Race Ratings". Politico.
  50. ^ "2018 Governor Elections: As November Nears, More Governors' Races Become Tossups". www.governing.com. Archived from the original on October 21, 2018. Retrieved July 18, 2018.
  51. ^ Full debate
  52. ^ Merriman River Group
  53. ^ a b c d e f Mason-Dixon
  54. ^ "General Election 2018 Final Summary Report" (PDF). State of Hawaii. November 6, 2018. Retrieved December 20, 2018.
  55. ^ "DRA 2020". Daves Redistricting. Retrieved August 18, 2024.

Official campaign websites

Official lieutenant gubernatorial campaign websites