2018 United States Senate election in Delaware

2018 United States Senate election in Delaware
← 2012 November 6, 2018 2024 →
Turnout52.18%
 
Nominee Tom Carper Rob Arlett
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 217,385 137,127
Percentage 59.95% 37.81%
Carper:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Arlett:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
     No data
U.S. senator before election

Tom Carper
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Tom Carper
Democratic

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The 2018 United States Senate election in Delaware took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Delaware, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.

The primary for this U.S. Senate election was held on Thursday, September 6, 2018.[1] The Democratic Party nominated incumbent U.S. Senator Tom Carper and the Republican Party nominated Sussex County Councilman Rob Arlett.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Tom Carper was re-elected to a fourth, and ultimately final, term. Despite Carper's victory, Arlett managed to flip Sussex County, typically a reliably Republican county in Delaware. This subsequently marked the first time Carper lost the county since his first election to the Senate in 2000.

Background

Three-term Democratic Senator Tom Carper was reelected with 66% of the vote in 2012 against Republican Kevin Wade.

Carper, the incumbent U.S. Senator, was challenged in the Democratic primary by Dover activist Kerri Evelyn Harris. Carper previously faced a primary challenge in the 2012 election from businessman Keith Spanarelli. However, Carper defeated Spanarelli by around 70 points. Carper went on to defeat Harris by around 30 points. It was the most competitive Democratic U.S. Senate primary in Delaware in two decades.

The main declared candidates in the Republican primary were Sussex County councilman Rob Arlett and businessman Gene Truono, with a perennial candidacy from businessman Rocky De La Fuente, who also ran for Senate in seven other states.[2] Another candidate withdrew before the primary. Rob Arlett defeated Gene Truono in a landslide to win the Republican nomination.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

  • Tykiem Booker, activist[5]

Declined

Endorsements

Tom Carper

U.S. Vice President

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

State executive branch officials

  • Rita Landgraf, former Secretary of Delaware Health and Social Services

State legislators

Individuals

Organizations

Kerri Evelyn Harris

State legislators

County Councilpersons

City Councilpersons

Political candidates

Individuals

Organizations

Media

Declined to endorse

Declined to endorse either candidate

Debates

Delaware newspaper The News Journal hosted a 90-minute debate on August 27, 2018, for the Democratic primary between Tom Carper and Kerri Evelyn Harris at Cab Calloway School of the Arts.[29][51] Republican candidate businessman Gene Truono answered questions from panelists before Carper and Harris debated. Sussex County Councilman Rob Arlett was also invited, but declined and claimed he had a scheduling conflict.

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Tom
Carper 		Kerri Evelyn
Harris 		Undecided
Gravis Marketing[52] July 24–29, 2018 354 ± 5.2% 51% 19% 30%

Results

Results by county
  Carper—60–70%
Democratic primary results[53]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Tom Carper (incumbent) 53,633 64.59%
Democratic Kerri Evelyn Harris 29,406 35.41%
Total votes 83,039 100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

  • Chuck Boyce, businessman[56][57] (endorsed Rob Arlett)

Declined

  • Ken Simpler, State Treasurer (running for re-election)[58]
  • Kevin Wade, businessman and candidate for Senate in 2012 and 2014 (endorsed Rob Arlett)

Endorsements

Rob Arlett

Former 2018 U.S. Senate election, Delaware candidates

  • Chuck Boyce, businessman

Political candidates

Individuals

Gene Truono

State legislators

Republican Party officials

Political candidates

  • Lee Murphy, actor and Republican candidate for U.S. House of Representatives in Delaware

Individuals

  • Mitch Denham, Delaware Gun Rights
  • John Foltz, 11th District Chairman
  • David Gilefski, Western NCC Region Chairman
  • Shawn Michael Greener, radio host[67]
  • Dick Heller (District of Columbia v. Heller)
  • Mark Keith Robinson, NRA affiliate
  • Maj Toure, Black Guns Matter

Organizations

Declined to endorse

Declined to endorse either candidate

Debates

Councilman Rob Arlett and businessman Gene Truono had four debates in total. They were normally live streamed on Facebook and uploaded to YouTube. A fifth debate was planned, but Truono withdrew from the debate because he the organizers refused to give him control over what questions could not be asked. Instead organizers held a forum with all the other candidates for the U.S. Senate and other state offices. Five candidates attended that forum.

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Rob
Arlett 		Rocky
De La Fuente 		Gene
Truono 		Undecided
Gravis Marketing[52] July 24–29, 2018 288 ± 5.8% 19% 7% 15% 60%

Results

Results by county
Map legend
  •   Arlett—70–80%
  •   Arlett—60–70%
  •   Arlett—50–60%
Republican primary results[53]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Rob Arlett 25,284 66.77%
Republican Gene Truono 10,587 27.96%
Republican Rocky De La Fuente 1,998 5.28%
Total votes 37,869 100.00%

Green primary

Candidates

Nominee

  • Demitri Theodoropoulos, small business owner[70]

Declined

Endorsements

Demitri Theodoropoulos

Organizations

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee

Independents

Not to be confused with the Independent Party of Delaware, which did not run a candidate for the 2018 United States Senate election.

Candidates

Declared

  • Barry Eveland (write-in)[71]
  • Matthew Water Stout, write-in presidential candidate in 2016 (write-in)[71][72]
  • Todd Farina, ticket company owner (write-in)

General election

Endorsements

Bold text indicates endorsement was given before the primary.

Tom Carper

U.S. Vice President

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

Governors

Other state executive branch officials

State legislators

Political candidates

Individuals

  • Matthew Albright, moderator of the Democratic primary debate[11]
  • Sandra Hall, 2016 Delaware Teacher of the Year
  • Douglas E. Krantz, rabbi[12]
  • Sonia Schorr Sloan, former Delaware President of the Board of Planned Parenthood
  • Jon Soltz, chairman of VoteVets[13]
  • Laura Thein, former Disabilities Caucus Chair of Young Democrats of America [78]

Organizations

Rob Arlett

Former 2018 U.S. Senate election, Delaware candidates

  • Chuck Boyce, businessman

Political candidates

Individuals

Organizations

Demitri Theodoropoulos

Organizations

Media

  • Hijacked Radio Podcast
  • The Politics of Courage[84]
Declined to endorse

Declined to endorse Tom Carper

  • Tykiem Booker, former candidate
  • Kerri Evelyn Harris, former candidate
  • Justice Democrats
  • Coby Owens, social justice activist, CEO of Youth Caucus of America, and 2016 delegate for Bernie Sanders

Declined to endorse Rob Arlett

Debates

with Kerri Evelyn Harris and Gene Truono
On August 20, 2018, the Greater Hockessin Area Development Association (GHADA) hosted a 2-hour debate at the Hockessin Memorial Hall between Democratic candidate Kerri Evelyn Harris and Republican candidate Gene Truono. Tom Carper and Rob Arlett were also invited to the debate, but did not attend. Carper was not present because of the U.S. Senate's extended session due to session ceasing early the Thursday prior because of the death of former governor and U.S. Senator of Nevada, Paul Laxalt.[85] Arlett declined and claimed he had a scheduling conflict.[86]

with Tom Carper and Rob Arlett
The debate gained national attention after Republican candidate Rob Arlett brought up Democratic senator Tom Carper’s past controversy of domestic abuse.

with Tom Carper, Rob Arlett, Nadine Frost, and Demitri Theodoropoulos

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[87] Safe D October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[88] Safe D November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[89] Safe D November 5, 2018
Daily Kos[90] Safe D April 9, 2018
Fox News[91] Likely D July 9, 2018
CNN[92] Safe D July 12, 2018
RealClearPolitics[93] Safe D June 2018
FiveThirtyEight[94] Safe D September 2018

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Tom
Carper (D) 		Rob
Arlett (R) 		Nadine
Frost (L) 		Demitri
Theodoropoulos (G) 		Undecided
University of Delaware[95] September 11–17, 2018 728 LV – 61% 24% 3% 3% 9%
908 RV ± 3.7% 60% 22% 5% 2% 12%
Gravis Marketing[52] July 24–29, 2018 884 ± 3.3% 47% 39% – – 14%
Hypothetical polling

with Tom Carper and Gene Truono

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Tom
Carper (D) 		Gene
Truono (R) 		Undecided
Gravis Marketing[52] July 24–29, 2018 884 ± 3.3% 47% 38% 15%

with Kerri Evelyn Harris and Rob Arlett

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Kerri Evelyn
Harris (D) 		Rob
Arlett (R) 		Undecided
Gravis Marketing[52] July 24–29, 2018 884 ± 3.3% 42% 35% 23%

with Kerri Evelyn Harris and Gene Truono

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Kerri Evelyn
Harris (D) 		Gene
Truono (R) 		Undecided
Gravis Marketing[52] July 24–29, 2018 884 ± 3.3% 40% 37% 23%

Results

Results by Precinct:
Carper
  •      40-50%
  •      50-60%
  •      60-70%
  •      70-80%
  •      80-90%
  •      90-100%
Arlett
  •      40-50%
  •      50-60%
  •      60-70%
  •      70-80%
United States Senate election in Delaware, 2018[96]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Tom Carper (incumbent) 217,385 59.95% −6.47%
Republican Rob Arlett 137,127 37.81% +8.85%
Green Demitri Theodoropoulos 4,170 1.15% +0.35%
Libertarian Nadine Frost 3,910 1.09% N/A
Total votes 362,592 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

References

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Official campaign websites