2004 United States presidential election in California

Main article: 2004 United States presidential election
2004 United States presidential election in California
← 2000 November 2, 2004 2008 →
Turnout76.04% (of registered voters) Increase 5.10 pp
57.03% (of eligible voters) Increase 5.11 pp[1]
 
Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Massachusetts Texas
Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney
Electoral vote 55 0
Popular vote 6,745,485 5,509,826
Percentage 54.30% 44.36%
County results
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

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The 2004 United States presidential election in California took place on November 2 as part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 55 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

California was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 9.94% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all leading news organizations considered this a state Kerry would win, or otherwise considered as a safe blue state. Republican presidential candidates have not taken California's electoral votes since Bush's father George H. W. Bush in his victory over Michael Dukakis in 1988. Bush would become the first Republican to win two terms in the White House without winning California at least once. With its 55 electoral votes, California was John Kerry's biggest electoral prize in 2004.

This marked the first election since 1880 in which the Republican nominee won the nationwide popular vote without California and the first time since 1976 that it voted for the popular vote loser. It was also the first time since Californian statehood in 1850 that a presidential candidate, of any party, was elected to two terms to the presidency without winning the state either time.

2004 is the most recent election in which a Republican presidential candidate has received more than 40% of the vote in California. It is also the most recent time a Republican has won more than a third of the vote in Los Angeles County, and the latest time the gap between the Republican and Democratic candidates was less than two million votes and single-digit points.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[2]

Source Ranking
D.C. Political Report Solid D
Associated Press Solid D
CNN Likely D
Cook Political Report Solid D
Newsweek Solid D
New York Times Solid D
Rasmussen Reports Likely D
Research 2000 Solid D
Washington Post Likely D
Washington Times Solid D
Zogby International Likely D
Washington Dispatch Likely D

Polling

Main article: Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2004: California

Kerry led every single pre-election poll. The final 3 polls average Kerry leading at 52% to Bush at 43% to Nader at 2%.[3]

Fundraising

Bush raised $20,296,645, the second most money raised state for him. It accounted for 10.7% of all the money he raised in 2004.[4] Kerry raised $36,378,063, which is by far the most money raised for Kerry by any state. The money raised in California accounted for almost 20% of all money he raised in 2004.[5]

Advertising and visits

Neither Kerry nor Bush advertised or campaigned in the state during the fall election.[6][7]

Analysis

John Kerry at rally for the Teamsters in Oakland, 2004

California was once a Republican-leaning swing state, supporting Republican candidates in every election from 1952 through 1988, except in 1964. However, since the 1990s, California has become a reliably Democratic state with a highly diverse ethnic population (mostly Latino) and liberal bastions such as the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles County. The last time a Republican candidate won the state was in 1988 by George H. W. Bush.

In 2004, the state did swing slightly Republican by a 1.9% margin from 2000 due to strong swings in heavily populated San Diego, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, Ventura, Kern, Fresno, Stanislaus, and San Joaquin counties, in all of which Bush increased his margin by substantially more than he did nationally, and all of which save San Diego, San Joaquin, and Ventura he won by double digits. Bush also won over a million votes in Los Angeles County, the most populous county in the United States; and he held Kerry to a 0.2% margin in Sacramento County (which Gore had won by 4.0%). Bush also benefited from strong support by Arnold Schwarzenegger, the state's Republican governor.[8] These factors likely contributed to California being closer than expected in 2004.

Bush remains the last Republican candidate to win San Diego, San Luis Obispo and Ventura counties in a presidential election. Fresno, Merced, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Joaquin, and Stanislaus counties would not vote Republican again until 2024. He is also the last candidate of any party to win Butte county by a majority. This is the last time the Democratic Party failed to obtain at least 60% of the vote until 2024.[9][10]

Results

2004 United States presidential election in California[11][12]
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic John Forbes Kerry and John Reid Edwards 6,745,485 54.31% 55
Republican George Walker Bush and Richard Bruce Cheney (incumbent) 5,509,826 44.36% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik 50,165 0.40% 0
Green David Cobb 40,771 0.33% 0
Peace and Freedom Leonard Peltier 27,607 0.22% 0
American Independent Michael Peroutka 26,645 0.21% 0
Independent Ralph Nader (write-in) 21,213 0.17% 0
Independent John Joseph Kennedy (write-in) 82 0.00% 0
Independent John Parker (write-in) 49 0.00% 0
Independent James Alexander-Pace (write-in) 8 0.00% 0
Independent Anthony Jabin (write-in) 1 0.00% 0
Totals 12,421,852 100.00% 55
Voter turnout (Voting Age voters) 74.7%

By county

County John Kerry
Democratic 		George W. Bush
Republican 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Alameda 422,585 75.18% 130,911 23.29% 8,590 1.53% 291,674 51.89% 562,090
Alpine 373 53.21% 311 44.37% 17 2.43% 62 8.84% 701
Amador 6,541 36.56% 11,107 62.08% 243 1.36% -4,566 -25.52% 17,891
Butte 42,448 44.14% 51,662 53.73% 2,047 2.13% -9,214 -9.59% 96,157
Calaveras 8,286 37.09% 13,601 60.87% 456 2.04% -5,315 -23.78% 22,343
Colusa 1,947 31.58% 4,142 67.17% 77 1.25% -2,195 -35.59% 6,166
Contra Costa 257,254 62.28% 150,608 36.46% 5,166 1.25% 106,646 25.82% 413,028
Del Norte 3,892 41.31% 5,356 56.85% 173 1.84% -1,464 -15.54% 9,421
El Dorado 32,242 37.33% 52,878 61.23% 1,244 1.44% -20,636 -23.90% 86,364
Fresno 103,154 41.68% 141,988 57.38% 2,321 0.94% -38,834 -15.70% 247,463
Glenn 2,995 31.68% 6,308 66.72% 151 1.60% -3,313 -35.04% 9,454
Humboldt 37,988 57.66% 25,714 39.03% 2,184 3.31% 12,274 18.63% 65,886
Imperial 17,964 52.41% 15,890 46.36% 420 1.23% 2,074 6.05% 34,274
Inyo 3,350 38.88% 5,091 59.09% 175 2.03% -1,741 -20.21% 8,616
Kern 68,603 32.49% 140,417 66.49% 2,154 1.02% -71,814 -34.00% 211,174
Kings 10,833 33.74% 21,003 65.41% 274 0.85% -10,170 -31.67% 32,110
Lake 13,141 53.16% 11,093 44.88% 485 1.96% 2,048 8.28% 24,719
Lassen 3,158 27.58% 8,126 70.97% 166 1.45% -4,968 -43.39% 11,450
Los Angeles 1,907,736 63.10% 1,076,225 35.60% 39,319 1.30% 831,511 27.50% 3,023,280
Madera 13,481 34.70% 24,871 64.02% 498 1.28% -11,390 -29.32% 38,850
Marin 99,070 73.21% 34,378 25.40% 1,877 1.39% 64,692 47.81% 135,325
Mariposa 3,251 37.55% 5,215 60.23% 192 2.22% -1,964 -22.68% 8,658
Mendocino 24,385 63.45% 12,955 33.71% 1,089 2.83% 11,430 29.74% 38,429
Merced 24,491 42.26% 32,773 56.54% 696 1.20% -8,282 -14.28% 57,960
Modoc 1,149 25.72% 3,235 72.42% 83 1.86% -2,086 -46.70% 4,467
Mono 2,628 49.23% 2,621 49.10% 89 1.67% 7 0.13% 5,338
Monterey 75,241 60.36% 47,838 38.38% 1,574 1.26% 27,403 21.98% 124,653
Napa 33,666 59.48% 22,059 38.97% 874 1.54% 11,607 20.51% 56,599
Nevada 24,220 44.92% 28,790 53.39% 910 1.69% -4,570 -8.47% 53,920
Orange 419,239 38.98% 641,832 59.68% 14,328 1.33% -222,593 -20.70% 1,075,399
Placer 55,573 36.26% 95,969 62.61% 1,736 1.13% -40,396 -26.35% 153,278
Plumas 4,129 36.90% 6,905 61.71% 156 1.39% -2,776 -24.81% 11,190
Riverside 228,806 41.04% 322,473 57.83% 6,300 1.13% -93,667 -16.79% 557,579
Sacramento 236,657 49.52% 235,539 49.29% 5,670 1.19% 1,118 0.23% 477,866
San Benito 9,851 52.61% 8,698 46.45% 176 0.94% 1,153 6.16% 18,725
San Bernardino 227,789 43.53% 289,306 55.29% 6,181 1.18% -61,517 -11.76% 523,276
San Diego 526,437 46.33% 596,033 52.45% 13,881 1.22% -69,596 -6.12% 1,136,351
San Francisco 296,772 83.02% 54,355 15.21% 6,338 1.77% 242,417 67.81% 357,465
San Joaquin 87,012 45.83% 100,978 53.18% 1,874 0.99% -13,966 -7.35% 189,864
San Luis Obispo 58,742 45.52% 67,995 52.69% 2,313 1.79% -9,253 -7.17% 129,050
San Mateo 197,922 69.48% 83,315 29.25% 3,620 1.27% 114,607 40.23% 284,857
Santa Barbara 90,314 53.17% 76,806 45.22% 2,741 1.61% 13,508 7.95% 169,861
Santa Clara 386,100 63.94% 209,094 34.63% 8,622 1.43% 177,006 29.31% 603,816
Santa Cruz 89,102 72.98% 30,354 24.86% 2,628 2.15% 58,748 48.12% 122,084
Shasta 24,339 31.31% 52,249 67.22% 1,143 1.47% -27,910 -35.91% 77,731
Sierra 646 33.16% 1,249 64.12% 53 2.72% -603 -30.96% 1,948
Siskiyou 7,880 37.71% 12,673 60.64% 346 1.66% -4,793 -22.93% 20,899
Solano 85,096 57.17% 62,301 41.86% 1,440 0.97% 22,795 15.31% 148,837
Sonoma 148,261 67.18% 68,204 30.90% 4,225 1.91% 80,057 36.28% 220,690
Stanislaus 58,829 40.40% 85,407 58.65% 1,388 0.95% -26,578 -18.25% 145,624
Sutter 9,602 31.85% 20,254 67.19% 289 0.96% -10,652 -35.34% 30,145
Tehama 7,504 32.01% 15,572 66.42% 368 1.57% -8,068 -34.41% 23,444
Trinity 2,782 42.71% 3,560 54.66% 171 2.63% -778 -11.95% 6,513
Tulare 32,494 32.87% 65,399 66.15% 967 0.98% -32,905 -33.28% 98,860
Tuolumne 10,104 38.51% 15,745 60.02% 386 1.47% -5,641 -21.51% 26,235
Ventura 148,859 47.53% 160,314 51.19% 4,020 1.28% -11,455 -3.66% 313,193
Yolo 42,885 59.34% 28,005 38.75% 1,379 1.91% 14,880 20.59% 72,269
Yuba 5,687 31.55% 12,076 67.00% 261 1.45% -6,389 -35.45% 18,024
Total 6,745,485 54.30% 5,509,826 44.36% 166,548 1.34% 1,235,659 9.94% 12,421,859

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Kerry won 31 of 53 congressional districts. Bush won 22 congressional districts, including two districts held by Democrats.[13]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 38% 60% Mike Thompson
2nd 62% 37% Wally Herger
3rd 58% 41% Doug Ose
Dan Lungren
4th 61% 37% John Doolittle
5th 38% 61% Bob Matsui
6th 28% 70% Lynn Woolsey
7th 32% 67% George Miller
8th 14% 85% Nancy Pelosi
9th 13% 86% Barbara Lee
10th 40% 59% Ellen Tauscher
11th 54% 45% Richard Pombo
12th 27% 72% Tom Lantos
13th 28% 71% Pete Stark
14th 30% 68% Anna Eshoo
15th 36% 63% Mike Honda
16th 36% 63% Zoe Lofgren
17th 33% 66% Sam Farr
18th 50% 49% Dennis Cardoza
19th 61% 38% George Radanovich
20th 48% 51% Cal Dooley
Jim Costa
21st 65% 34% Devin Nunes
22nd 68% 31% Bill Thomas
23rd 40% 58% Lois Capps
24th 56% 43% Elton Gallegly
25th 59% 40% Howard McKeon
26th 55% 44% David Dreier
27th 39% 59% Brad Sherman
28th 28% 71% Howard Berman
29th 37% 61% Adam Schiff
30th 33% 66% Henry Waxman
31st 22% 77% Xavier Becerra
32nd 37% 62% Hilda Solis
33rd 16% 83% Diane Watson
34th 30% 69% Lucille Roybal-Allard
35th 20% 79% Maxine Waters
36th 40% 59% Jane Harman
37th 25% 74% Juanita Millender-McDonald
38th 34% 65% Grace Napolitano
39th 40% 59% Linda Sánchez
40th 60% 39% Ed Royce
41st 62% 37% Jerry Lewis
42nd 62% 37% Gary Miller
43rd 41% 58% Joe Baca
44th 59% 40% Ken Calvert
45th 56% 43% Mary Bono Mack
46th 57% 42% Dana Rohrabacher
47th 50% 49% Loretta Sanchez
48th 58% 40% Christopher Cox
John Campbell
49th 63% 36% Darrell Issa
50th 55% 44% Brian Bilbray
51st 46% 53% Bob Filner
52nd 61% 38% Duncan Hunter
53rd 38% 61% Susan Davis

Electors

Main article: List of 2004 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of California cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. California is allocated 55 electors because it has 53 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 53 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 53 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from California. All were pledged to and voted for John Kerry and John Edwards.[14]

  1. Robert H. Manley
  2. Barbara Schraeger
  3. Paul Johnson
  4. Gary Simmons
  5. Paul Batterson
  6. Diana Madoshi
  7. Kyriakos Tsakopoulos
  8. Donald Linker
  9. Paula Sandusky
  10. Adam Woo
  11. Chloe Drew
  12. Karl Sliferv
  13. Gary Prost
  14. Joseph Cotchett
  15. John Smith
  16. George Marcus
  17. Mark Hsu
  18. Adele Bihn
  19. Darrell Darling
  20. Amarjit Dhaliwal
  21. Rocco Davis
  22. Kenneth Costa
  23. Barbara Pyle
  24. David Johnson
  25. Andrew M. Siegel
  26. Michael Carpenter
  27. Lynda Von Husen
  28. Randy Monroe
  29. Lane M. Sherman
  30. Moreen Blum
  31. Yolanda Dyer
  32. Paul I. Goldenberg
  33. Lenore Wax
  34. Mitch O'Farrell
  35. Franklin A. Acevedo
  36. Gwen Moore
  37. Pedro Carillo
  38. Karen Walters
  39. Ted Lieu
  40. Valerie McDonald
  41. Marvin
  42. Douglas E. Hitchcock
  43. Barbara Kerr
  44. Salvador Sanchez
  45. Joe Baca Jr.
  46. Grant Gruber
  47. James T. Ewing
  48. Louise Giacoppe
  49. James G. Bohm
  50. Mark Lam
  51. Chuck Lower
  52. Susan Koehler
  53. Mary Salas
  54. Andrew Benjamin
  55. Margaret Lawrence

References

  1. ^ "HISTORICAL VOTER REGISTRATION AND PARTICIPATION IN STATEWIDE GENERAL ELECTIONS 1910-2018" (PDF). Retrieved June 30, 2021.
  2. ^ "Archived copy". dcpoliticalreport.com. Archived from the original on November 21, 2010. Retrieved January 14, 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  3. ^ Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
  4. ^ George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President
  5. ^ John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President
  6. ^ "CNN.com Specials". CNN.
  7. ^ "CNN.com Specials". CNN.
  8. ^ Loughlin, Sean (September 1, 2004). "Schwarzenegger's star power dazzles delegates". CNN.
  9. ^ "2004 Presidential General Election Results - California". Dave Leip's election atlas.
  10. ^ "2024 Presidential General Election Results - California". Dave Leip's election atlas.
  11. ^ "President" (PDF). California Secretary of State. February 22, 2005. Archived from the original (PDF) on July 21, 2013. Retrieved July 9, 2008.
  12. ^ "Report of Registration as of October 18, 2004" (PDF). California Secretary of State. January 7, 2005. Archived from the original (PDF) on July 10, 2008. Retrieved January 16, 2013.
  13. ^ Swing State Project: Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008
  14. ^ U. S. Electoral College 2004 Election - Main Page

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