[[File: Protesters gathered at Tahrir Square in Cairo, Egypt, 9 February 2011; Habib Bourguiba Boulevard, protesters in Tunis, Tunisia, 14 January 2011; Dissidents in Sanaa, Yemen, calling for president Ali Abdullah Saleh to resign on 3 February 2011; Crowds of hundreds of thousands in Baniyas, Syria, 29 April 2011|thumb|]]
A power struggle continued after the immediate response to the Arab Spring. While leadership changed and regimes were held accountable, power vacuums opened across the Arab world. Ultimately, it resulted in a contentious battle between a consolidation of power by religious elites and the growing support for democracy in many Muslim-majority states.[18] The early hopes that these popular movements would end corruption, increase political participation, and bring about greater economic equity quickly collapsed in the wake of the counter-revolutionary moves by foreign state actors in Yemen,[19] the regional and international military interventions in Bahrain and Yemen, and the destructive civil wars in Syria, Iraq, Libya, and Yemen.[20]
Some have referred to the succeeding and still ongoing conflicts as the Arab Winter.[11][12][14][15][16] Recent uprisings in Sudan and Algeria show that the conditions that started the Arab Spring have not faded and political movements against authoritarianism and exploitation are still occurring.[21] Since late 2018, multiple uprisings and protest movements in Algeria, Sudan, Iraq, Lebanon, and Egypt have been seen as a continuation of the Arab Spring.[22][23]
As of 2024, multiple conflicts are still continuing that might be seen as a result of the Arab Spring. The Syrian Civil War has caused massive political instability and economic hardship in Syria, with the Syrian pound plunging to new lows.[24] In Libya, a major civil war concluded, with foreign powers intervening.[25][26] In Yemen, a civil war continues to affect the country.[27] In Lebanon, a major banking crisis is threatening the country's economy as well as that of neighboring Syria. In December 2024, opposition groups in the Syrian Civil War launched offensives against the Syrian government, resulting in Bashar Al-Assad being overthrown, the Assad regime ending after over 50 years, the fall of Damascus, and the 2024 Israeli invasion of Syria.
The War in Iraq (2013–2017) was an armed conflict between Iraq and its allies and the Islamic State. Following December 2013, the insurgency escalated into full-scale guerrilla warfare following clashes in the cities of Ramadi and Fallujah in parts of western Iraq, and culminated in the Islamic State offensive into Iraq in June 2014, which lead to the capture of the cities of Mosul, Tikrit and other cities in western and northern Iraq by the Islamic State. Between 4–9 June 2014, the city of Mosul was attacked and later fell; following this, Prime MinisterNouri al-Maliki called for a national state of emergency on 10 June. However, despite the security crisis, Iraq's parliament did not allow Maliki to declare a state of emergency; many legislators boycotted the session because they opposed expanding the prime minister's powers.[28] Ali Ghaidan, a former military commander in Mosul, accused al-Maliki of being the one who issued the order to withdraw from the city of Mosul.[29] At its height, ISIL held 56,000 square kilometers of Iraqi territory, containing 4.5 million citizens.[30]
The war resulted in the forced resignation of al-Maliki in 2014, as well as an airstrike campaign by the United States and a dozen other countries in support of the Iraqi military,[31] participation of American and Canadian troops (predominantly special forces) in ground combat operations,[32][33] a $3.5 billion U.S.-led program to rearm the Iraqi security forces,[34] a U.S.-led training program that provided training to nearly 200,000 Iraqi soldiers and police,[35] the participation of the military of Iran, including troops as well as armored and air elements,[36] and military and logistical aid provided to Iraq by Russia.[31] On 9 December 2017, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi announced victory over the Islamic State.[37][38][39][40] The Islamic State switched to guerrilla "hit and run" tactics in an effort to undermine the Iraqi government's effort to eradicate it.[41][42][43] This conflict is interpreted by some in Iraq as a spillover of the Syrian civil war. Other Iraqis and observers see it mainly as a culmination of long-running local sectarianism, exacerbated by the 2003–2011 Iraq War, the subsequent increase in anti-Sunni sectarianism under Prime Minister al-Maliki, and the ensuing bloody crack-down on the 2012–2013 Iraqi protests.[44]
Global issues
Climate change
In December 2019, the World Meteorological Organization released its annual climate report revealing that climate impacts are worsening.[45] They found the global sea temperatures are rising as well as land temperatures worldwide. 2019 is the last year in a decade that is the warmest on record.[46] The 2010s were the hottest decade in recorded history, according to NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). 2016 was the hottest year and 2019 was the second hottest.[47]
Global carbon emissions hit a record high in 2019, even though the rate of increase slowed somewhat, according to a report from Global Carbon Project.[48]
In early 2011, a civil war broke out in the context of the wider "Arab Spring". The anti-Gaddafi forces formed a committee named the National Transitional Council, on 27 February 2011. It was meant to act as an interim authority in the rebel-controlled areas. After the government began to roll back the rebels and a number of atrocities were committed by both sides,[49][50][51][52][53] a multinational coalition led by NATO forces intervened on 21 March 2011, with the stated intention to protect civilians against attacks by the government's forces.[54] Shortly thereafter, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant against Gaddafi and his entourage on 27 June 2011. Gaddafi was ousted from power in the wake of the fall of Tripoli to the rebel forces on 20 August 2011, although pockets of resistance held by forces loyal to Gaddafi's government held out for another two months, especially in Gaddafi's hometown of Sirte, which he declared the new capital of Libya on 1 September 2011.[55] His Jamahiriya regime came to an end the following month, culminating on 20 October 2011 with Sirte's capture, NATO airstrikes against Gaddafi's escape convoy, and his killing by rebel fighters.[56][57]
In early 2014, the Euromaidan protests led to the Revolution of Dignity and the ousting of Ukraine's pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovych. Shortly after, pro-Russian unrest erupted in eastern and southern Ukraine. Simultaneously, unmarked Russian troops moved into Ukraine's Crimea and took over government buildings, strategic sites and infrastructure. Russia soon annexed Crimea after a highly disputed referendum. In April 2014, armed pro-Russian separatists seized government buildings in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region and proclaimed the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People's Republic (LPR) as independent states, starting the Donbas war. The separatists received considerable but covert support from Russia, and Ukrainian attempts to fully retake separatist-held areas failed. Although Russia denied involvement, Russian troops took part in the fighting. In February 2015, Russia and Ukraine signed the Minsk II agreements to end the conflict, but the agreements were never fully implemented in the years that followed. The Donbas war settled into a violent but static conflict between Ukraine and the Russian and separatist forces, with many brief ceasefires but no lasting peace and few changes in territorial control.
World banking
Concerns increased about the European Debt Crisis as both Greece and Italy continued to have high levels of public debt. This caused concerned about stability of the Euro. In December 2019, the EU announced that banking ministers from EU member nations had failed to reach agreement over proposed banking reforms and systemic change.[65][66] The EU was concerned about high rates of debt in France, Italy and Spain.[67] Italy objected to proposed new debt bailout rules that were proposed to be added to the European Stability Mechanism.[68]
In the first half of 2019, global debt levels reached a record high of $250 trillion, led by the US and China.[69] The IMF warned about corporate debt.[69] The European Central Bank raised concerns as well.[70]
World trade
United States-China trade dispute
A trade dispute between the US and China caused economic concerns worldwide. In December 2019, various US officials said a trade deal was likely before a proposed round of new tariffs took effect on December 15, 2019.[71] US tariffs had a negative effect on China's economy, which slowed to growth of 6%.[71]
United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement
The United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement[72] is a signed but not ratified free trade agreement between Canada, Mexico, and the United States. The Agreement is the result of a 2017–2018 renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) by its member states.[73] Negotiations "focused largely on auto exports, steel and aluminum tariffs, and the dairy, egg, and poultry markets." One provision "prevents any party from passing laws that restrict the cross-border flow of data".[74] Compared to NAFTA, USMCA increases environmental and labour regulations, and incentivizes more domestic production of cars and trucks.[75] The agreement also provides updated intellectual property protections, gives the United States more access to Canada's dairy market, imposes a quota for Canadian and Mexican automotive production, and increases the duty free limit for Canadians who buy U.S. goods online from $20 to $150.[76]
Piracy in the Gulf of Guinea affects a number of countries in West Africa, including Benin, Togo, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, and the Democratic Republic of Congo as well as the wider international community. By 2011, it had become an issue of global concern. Pirates are often part of heavily armed criminal enterprises, who employ violent methods to steal oil cargo. In 2012, the International Maritime Bureau and other agencies reported that the number of vessels attacks by West African pirates had reached a world high, with 966 seafarers attacked and five killed during the year.[77]
Piracy off the coast of Somalia occurs in the Gulf of Aden, Guardafui Channel, Somali Sea, in Somali territorial waters and other areas. It was initially a threat to international fishing vessels, expanding to international shipping since the second phase of the Somali Civil War, around 2000. By December 2013, the US Office of Naval Intelligence reported that only nine vessels had been attacked during the year by the pirates, with no successful hijackings.[78] In March 2017, it was reported that pirates had seized an oil tanker that had set sail from Djibouti and was headed to Mogadishu. The ship and its crew were released with no ransom given after the pirate crew learned that the ship had been hired by Somali businessmen.[79]
Somalia's al-Shabaab and its Islamic extremism can be traced back to the mid-1970s when the group began as an underground movement opposing the repressive and corrupt regime of Siad Barre. Armed conflict between al-Shabaab and the Somali army – including associated human rights violations – has resulted in slightly over 68 million human displacements.[80] Al-Shabaab is hostile to Sufi traditions and has often clashed with the militant Sufi group Ahlu Sunna Waljama'a. The group has also been suspected of having links with Al-Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb and Boko Haram. Among their best-known attacks are the Westgate shopping mall attack in Nairobi, Kenya, in September 2013 (resulting in 71 deaths and 200 injured) and the 14 October 2017 Mogadishu bombings that killed 587 and injured 316.[82] On September 1, 2014, a U.S. drone strike carried out as part of the broader mission killed al-Shabaab leader Ahmed Abdi Godane.[83]
The Insurgency in the Maghreb refers to Islamist militant and terrorist activity in northern Africa since 2002, including Algeria, Mauritania, Tunisia, Morocco, Niger, Mali, Ivory Coast, Libya, Western Sahara, and Burkina Faso, as well as having ties to Boko Haram in Nigeria. The conflict followed the conclusion of the Algerian Civil War as a militant group became al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). Their tactics have included bombings; shootings; and kidnappings, particularly of foreign tourists. In addition to African units, the fight against the insurgency has been led primarily by the French Foreign Legion, although the U.S. also has over 1,300 troops in the region. Four American soldiers were killed in the October 4, 2017 Tongo Tongo ambush in Niger.[84]
Asia
Armenia
The 2011 Armenian protests were a series of civil demonstrations aimed at provoking political reforms and concessions from both the government of Armenia and the civic government of Yerevan, its capital and largest city. Protesters demanded President Serzh Sargsyan release political prisoners, prosecute those responsible for the deaths of opposition activists after the 2008 presidential election and institute democratic and socioeconomic reforms, including the right to organise in Freedom Square in downtown Yerevan. They also protested against Yerevan Mayor Karen Karapetyan for banning the opposition from Freedom Square and barring vendors and traders from the city streets.
Various political and civil groups staged anti-government protests in Armenia in 2013. The first series of protests were held following the 2013 presidential election and were led by the former presidential candidate Raffi Hovannisian. Hovannisian, who, according to official results, lost to incumbent Serzh Sargsyan, denounced the results claiming they were rigged. Starting on 19 February, Hovannisian and his supporters held mass rallies in Yerevan's Freedom Square and other cities. Sargsyan was inaugurated on 9 April 2013, while Hovannisian and thousands of people gathered in the streets of Yerevan to protest it, clashing with the police forces blocking the way to the Presidential Palace.
The 2018 Armenian Revolution was a series of anti-government protests in Armenia from April to May 2018 staged by various political and civil groups led by Nikol Pashinyan (head of the Civil Contract party). Protests and marches took place initially in response to Serzh Sargsyan's third consecutive term as the most powerful figure in the government of Armenia and later against the Republican Party-controlled government in general. On 22 April, Pashinyan was arrested and held in solitary confinement overnight, then released on 23 April, the same day that Sargsyan resigned, saying "I was wrong, while Nikol Pashinyan was right".[85][86] The event is referred to by some as a peaceful revolution akin to revolutions in other post-Soviet states.[87][88][89] On 8 May, Pashinyan was elected Prime Minister by the country's parliament with 59 votes.[90]
Azerbaijan
The 2011 Azerbaijani protests were a series of demonstrations held to protest the government of President Ilham Aliyev. Common themes espoused by demonstrators, many of whom were affiliated with Müsavat and the Popular Front Party, the main opposition parties in Azerbaijan, included doubts as to the legitimacy of the 2008 presidential election, desire for the release of political prisoners, calls for democratic reforms, and demands that Aliyev and his government resign from power. Azerbaijani authorities responded with a security crackdown, dispersing protests and curtailing attempts to gather with force and numerous arrests.
Gulargate was a 2012–2013 political corruption scandal in Azerbaijan involving civil servants and government officials of various levels, serving in positions as high as the National Assembly of Azerbaijan and the Presidential Administration. It flared up on 25 September 2012 after Azerbaijani lawyer and former university rector Elshad Abdullayev posted a hidden camera video on YouTube showing his meeting with Member of Parliament Gular Ahmadova negotiating a bribe to secure a seat in the National Assembly for Abdullayev in the 2005 parliamentary election. The scandal widened after a series of similar videos involving other officials and other cases of corruption were posted by Abdullayev at later dates, followed by sackings, arrests and deaths of some of those who appeared in the videos.[91]
A protest took place on January 12, 2013, in Baku, Azerbaijan after Azerbaijani Army soldier Ceyhun Qubadov was found dead on January 7, 2013. It was first reported that the cause of death was heart attack. Qubadov's family asked for an investigation as they believed it was a murder.
The Bangladesh Army reported a failed coup d'état was supposed to take place in January 2012 by rogue military officers and expatriate but was stopped by the Bangladesh army in December 2011.[92][93][94] The coup attempt had apparently been planned over several weeks or months with support of religious fanatics outside of Bangladesh.[95] Military sources said that up to 16 hard-line Islamist officers were involved in the coup, with some of them being detained.[96]
On 28 February 2013, Thursday, the ICT, found Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami leader Delwar Hossain Sayeedi guilty of 8 out of 20 charges leveled against him including murder, rape and torture during the 1971 war of independence[97][98][99] On Sunday and Monday, 3 and 4 March, Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami enforced a 48-hour hartal.[97] Protests led by Jamaate Islami activists and Sayeedi supporters were carried out during these strikes.[97]Bangladesh Nationalist Party supported the strike and called for another daylong strike on 5 March.[100] Police shot dead 31 protestors during the initial clashes.[101] After the verdict of Delwar Hossain Sayidee, attacks on Hindu community occurred in several districts of Bangladesh including Noakhali, Lakshmipur, Chittagong, Comilla, Brahmanbaria, Cox's Bazar, Bagerhat, Gaibandha, Rangpur, Dinajpur, Lalmonirhat, Barisal, Bhola, Barguna, Satkhira, Chapainawabganj, Natore, Sylhet, Manikganj, Munshiganj.[102][103][104] Several temples were vandalized. 2 Hindus died due to injuries in the violence.[105][106]
Following the controversial 2014 Bangladeshi general election, the BNP raised several demands for a second election under a neutral caretaker government. By 5 January 2015, the first anniversary of the election, their demands were not met and the BNP initiated countrywide protests and traffic blockades. After many violent and fatal attacks on the public by alleged BNP protesters, the AL branded the BNP as terrorists and Khaleda Zia was forcefully confined to her office.
Bhutan
On 16 June 2017 Chinese troops with construction vehicles and road-building equipment began extending an existing road southward in Doklam, a territory that is claimed by both China and Bhutan.[118][119][120][121][122][123] On 18 June 2017, as part of Operation Juniper,[124] about 270 armed Indian troops with two bulldozers crossed the Sikkim border into Doklam to stop the Chinese troops from constructing the road.[120][125][126] On 28 August, both India and China announced that they had withdrawn all their troops from the face-off site in Doklam.
Cambodia
Anti-government protests were ongoing in Cambodia from July 2013 to July 2014. Popular demonstrations in Phnom Penh took place against the government of Prime MinisterHun Sen, triggered by widespread allegations of electoral fraud during the Cambodian general election of 2013.[127] Demands to raise the minimum wage to $160 a month[128] and resentment at Vietnamese influence in Cambodia have also contributed to the protests.[129] The main opposition party refused to participate in parliament after the elections,[130] and major demonstrations took place throughout December 2013.[131] A government crackdown in January 2014 led to the deaths of 4 people and the clearing of the main protest camp.[132]
In Xi's foreign policy, China became more aggressive with its actions in the South China Sea dispute, by building artificial islands and militarizing existing reefs, beginning in 2012.[135] Another key part of its foreign policy has been the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a strategy adopted by China involving infrastructure development and investments in countries and organizations in Asia, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and the Americas.[136][137][138][139] China has signed cooperational documents on the belt and road initiative with 126 countries and 29 international organisations,[140] where various efforts then went ahead on infrastructure.[141]
In the end of the decade, concerns started to grow about the future of the Chinese economy.[143] These concerns included whether the United States and China could positively resolve their disputes over trade.[144][145]
The 2019–20 Hong Kong protests, also known as the Anti-Extradition Law Amendment Bill (Anti-ELAB) movement, is an ongoing series of demonstrations in Hong Kong triggered by the introduction of the Fugitive Offenders amendment bill by the Hong Kong government.[146]
If enacted, the bill would have empowered local authorities to detain and extradite criminal fugitives who are wanted in territories with which Hong Kong does not currently have extradition agreements, including Taiwan and mainland China. This led to concerns that the bill would subject Hong Kong residents and visitors to the jurisdiction and legal system of mainland China, which would undermine the region's autonomy and Hong Kong people's civil liberties. As the protests progressed, the protesters laid out five key demands, which were the withdrawal of the bill, investigation into alleged police brutality and misconduct, the release of arrested protesters, a complete retraction of the official characterisation of the protests as "riots", and Chief Executive Carrie Lam's resignation along with the introduction of universal suffrage for election of the Legislative Council and the Chief Executive.[147][148][149][150][151][152][153][154][155][156]
The former flag of Ba'athist Iraq remerged during the protests as a symbol of Sunni identity in Iraq.
The 2012–2013 Iraqi protests started on 21 December 2012 following a raid on the home of Sunni Finance Minister Rafi al-Issawi and the arrest of 10 of his bodyguards.[172] Beginning in Fallujah, the protests afterwards spread throughout Sunni Arab parts of Iraq. The protests centered on the issue of the alleged sectarianism of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Pro-Maliki protests also took place throughout central and southern Iraq, where there is a Shia Arab majority. In April 2013, sectarian violence escalated after the 2013 Hawija clashes. The protests continued throughout 2013, and in December Maliki used security forces to forcefully close down the main protest camp in Ramadi, leaving at least ten gunmen and three policemen dead in the process.
A series of demonstrations, marches, sit-ins and civil disobedience took place in Iraq from 2019 until 2021. It started on 1October 2019, a date which was set by civil activists on social media, spreading mainly over the central and southernprovinces of Iraq, to protest corruption, high unemployment, political sectarianism, inefficient public services and foreign interventionism. Protests spread quickly, coordinated over social media, to other provinces in Iraq. As the intensity of the demonstrations peaked in late October, protesters' anger focused not only on the desire for a complete overhaul of the Iraqi government but also on driving out Iranian influence, including Iranian-aligned Shia militias. The government, with the help of Iranian-backed militias responded brutally using live bullets, marksmen, hot water, hot pepper gas and tear gas against protesters, leading to many deaths and injuries.[173][174][175][176]
Nursultan Nazarbayev was given the title Elbasy (meaning "Leader of the Nation")[181] on 14 June 2010.[182] In the same year, he announced reforms to encourage a multi-party system in an attempt to counter the ruling Nur Otan's one-party control of the lower house Mazhilis from 2007. This led to the reinstatement of various parties in Parliament following the 2012 legislative elections, although having little influence and opposition as the parties supported and voted with the government while Nur Otan still had dominant-party control of the Mazhilis.
The Zhanaozen massacre took place in Kazakhstan's western Mangystau Region over the weekend of 16–17 December 2011. At least 14 protestors were killed by police in the oil town of Zhanaozen as they clashed with police on the country's Independence Day,[183] with unrest spreading to other towns in the oil-rich oblys, or region.[184]
In 2015, Nazarbayev was re-elected for the last time for a fifth term with almost 98% of the vote while in a middle of an economic crisis, as he ran virtually unopposed. In January 2017, Nazarbayev proposed constitutional reforms that would delegate powers to the Parliament of Kazakhstan. In May 2018, the Parliament approved a constitutional amendment allowing Nazarbayev to lead the Security Council for life.
Aung San Suu Kyi's party, the National League for Democracy, participated in by-elections held on 1 April 2012 after the government abolished laws that led to the NLD's boycott of the 2010 general election. She led the NLD in winning the by-elections in a landslide, winning 41 out of 44 of the contested seats, with Aung San Suu Kyi herself winning a seat representing Kawhmu Constituency in the lower house of the Myanmar Parliament. General elections were held on 8 November 2015, with the National League for Democracy winning a supermajority of seats in the combined national parliament.[186]
Before the elections, Aung San Suu Kyi announced that even though she was constitutionally barred from the presidency, she would hold the real power in any NLD-led government.[187] On 30 March 2016 she became Minister for the President's Office, for Foreign Affairs, for Education and for Electric Power and Energy in President Htin Kyaw's government; later she relinquished the latter two ministries and President Htin Kyaw appointed her State Counsellor, a position akin to a Prime Minister created especially for her.[188][189][190]
In late 2016, Myanmar's armed forces and police started a major crackdown on the people in Rakhine State in the country's northwestern region. The Burmese military were accused of ethnic cleansing and genocide by various United Nations agencies, International Criminal Court officials, human rights groups, journalists, and governments.[191][192][193] A study estimated in January 2018 that the military and local Rakhine population killed at least 25,000 Rohingya people and perpetrated gang rapes and other forms of sexual violence against 18,000 Rohingya women and girls.[194][195][196] The military operations displaced a large number of people, and created a refugee crisis, which resulted in the largest human exodus in Asia since the Vietnam War.[197]
Some have referred to the succeeding and still ongoing conflicts as the Arab Winter.[201][202][203][204][205] As of May 2018, only the uprising in Tunisia has resulted in a transition to constitutional democratic governance.[200] Recent uprisings in Sudan and Algeria show that the conditions that started the Arab Spring have not faded and political movements against authoritarianism and exploitation are still occurring.[207] In 2019, multiple uprisings and protest movements in Algeria, Sudan, Iraq, Lebanon, and Egypt have been seen as a continuation of the Arab Spring.[208][209]
Long-term interest rates (secondary market yields of government bonds with maturities of close to ten years) of all eurozone countries except Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.[210] A yield being more than 4% points higher compared to the lowest comparable yield among the eurozone states, i.e. yields above 6% in September 2011, indicates that financial institutions have serious doubts about credit-worthiness of the state.[211]
The euro area crisis was caused by a sudden stop of the flow of foreign capital into countries that had substantial current account deficits and were dependent on foreign lending. The crisis was worsened by the inability of states to resort to devaluation (reductions in the value of the national currency) due to having the Euro as a shared currency.[212][213] Debt accumulation in some eurozone members was in part due to macroeconomic differences among eurozone member states prior to the adoption of the euro. It also involved a process of cross-border financial contagion. The European Central Bank adopted an interest rate that incentivized investors in Northern eurozone members to lend to the South, whereas the South was incentivized to borrow because interest rates were very low. Over time, this led to the accumulation of deficits in the South, primarily by private economic actors.[212][213] A lack of fiscal policy coordination among eurozone member states contributed to imbalanced capital flows in the eurozone,[212][213] while a lack of financial regulatory centralization or harmonization among eurozone states, coupled with a lack of credible commitments to provide bailouts to banks, incentivized risky financial transactions by banks.[212][213] The detailed causes of the crisis varied from country to country. In several countries, private debts arising from a property bubble were transferred to sovereign debt as a result of banking system bailouts and government responses to slowing economies post-bubble. European banks own a significant amount of sovereign debt, such that concerns regarding the solvency of banking systems or sovereigns are negatively reinforcing.[214]
The onset of crisis was in late 2009 when the Greek government disclosed that its budget deficits were far higher than previously thought.[212] Greece called for external help in early 2010, receiving an EU–IMF bailout package in May 2010.[212] European nations implemented a series of financial support measures such as the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) in early 2010 and the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) in late 2010. The ECB also contributed to solve the crisis by lowering interest rates and providing cheap loans of more than one trillion euro in order to maintain money flows between European banks. On 6 September 2012, the ECB calmed financial markets by announcing free unlimited support for all eurozone countries involved in a sovereign state bailout/precautionary programme from EFSF/ESM, through some yield lowering Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT).[215] Ireland and Portugal received EU-IMF bailouts In November 2010 and May 2011, respectively.[212] In March 2012, Greece received its second bailout. Both Cyprus received rescue packages in June 2012.[212]
Return to economic growth and improved structural deficits enabled Ireland and Portugal to exit their bailout programmes in July 2014. Greece and Cyprus both managed to partly regain market access in 2014. Spain never officially received a bailout programme. Its rescue package from the ESM was earmarked for a bank recapitalisation fund and did not include financial support for the government itself. The crisis had significant adverse economic effects and labour market effects, with unemployment rates in Greece and Spain reaching 27%,[216] and was blamed for subdued economic growth, not only for the entire eurozone but for the entire European Union. The austerity policies implemented as a result of the crisis also produced a sharp rise in poverty levels and a significant increase in income inequality across Southern Europe.[217] It had a major political impact on the ruling governments in 10 out of 19 eurozone countries, contributing to power shifts in Greece, Ireland, France, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Slovenia, Slovakia, Belgium, and the Netherlands as well as outside of the eurozone in the United Kingdom.[218]
Effects on governments
Unscheduled change of governments in Euro countries (marked red) due to crisis
The handling of the European debt crisis led to the premature end of several European national governments and influenced the outcome of many elections:
Ireland – February 2011 – After a high deficit in the government's budget in 2010 and the uncertainty surrounding the proposed bailout from the International Monetary Fund, the 30th Dáil (parliament) collapsed the following year, which led to a subsequent general election, collapse of the preceding government parties, Fianna Fáil and the Green Party, the resignation of the TaoiseachBrian Cowen and the rise of the Fine Gael party, which formed a government alongside the Labour Party in the 31st Dáil, which led to a change of government and the appointment of Enda Kenny as Taoiseach.
Portugal – March 2011 – Following the failure of parliament to adopt the government austerity measures, PM José Sócrates and his government resigned, bringing about early elections in June 2011.[219][220]
Finland – April 2011 – The approach to the Portuguese bailout and the EFSF dominated the April 2011 election debate and formation of the subsequent government.[221][222]
Spain – July 2011 – Following the failure of the Spanish government to handle the economic situation, PM José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero announced early elections in November.[223] "It is convenient to hold elections this fall so a new government can take charge of the economy in 2012, fresh from the balloting," he said.[224] Following the elections, Mariano Rajoy became PM.
Slovenia – September 2011 – Following the failure of June referendums on measures to combat the economic crisis and the departure of coalition partners, the Borut Pahor government lost a motion of confidence and December 2011 early elections were set, following which Janez Janša became PM.[225] After a year of rigorous saving measures, and also due to continuous opening of ideological question, the centre-right government of Janez Janša was ousted on 27 February 2013 by nomination of Alenka Bratušek as the PM-designated of a new centre-left coalition government.[226]
Italy – November 2011 – Following market pressure on government bond prices in response to concerns about levels of debt, the right-wingcabinet, of the long-time Prime MinisterSilvio Berlusconi, lost its majority: Berlusconi resigned on 12 November and four days later was replaced by the technocratic government of Mario Monti.[227]
Greece – November 2011 – After intense criticism from within his own party, the opposition and other EU governments, for his proposal to hold a referendum on the austerity and bailout measures, PM George Papandreou of the PASOK party announced his resignation in favour of a national unity government between three parties, of which only two currently remain in the coalition.[228] Following the vote in the Greek parliament on the austerity and bailout measures, which both leading parties supported but many MPs of these two parties voted against, Papandreou and Antonis Samaras expelled a total of 44 MPs from their respective parliamentary groups, leading to PASOK losing its parliamentary majority.[229] The early Greek legislative election, 2012 were the first time in the history of the country, at which the bipartisanship (consisted of PASOK and New Democracy parties), which ruled the country for over 40 years, collapsed in votes as a punishment for their support to the strict measures proposed by the country's foreign lenders and the Troika (consisted of the European Commission, the IMF and the European Central Bank). The popularity of PASOK dropped from 42.5% in 2010 to as low as 7% in some polls in 2012.[230] The radical right-wing, extreme left-wing, communist and populist political parties that have opposed the policy of strict measures, won the majority of the votes.
Netherlands – April 2012 – After talks between the VVD, CDA and PVV over a new austerity package of about 14 billion euros failed, the Rutte cabinet collapsed. Early elections were called for 12 September 2012. To prevent fines from the EU – a new budget was demanded by 30 April – five different parties called the Kunduz coalition forged together an emergency budget for 2013 in just two days.[231]
Europe began registering increased numbers of refugee arrivals in 2010 due to a confluence of conflicts in parts of the Middle East, Asia and Africa, particularly the wars in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan, but also terrorist insurgencies in Nigeria and Pakistan, and long-running human rights abuses in Eritrea, all contributing to refugee flows.[240] Many millions initially sought refuge in comparatively stable countries near their origin, but while these countries were largely free of war, living conditions for refugees were often very poor. In Turkey, many were not permitted to work; in Jordan and Lebanon which hosted millions of Syrian refugees,[241] large numbers were confined to squalid refugee camps.[240][242] As it became clear that the wars in their home countries would not end in the foreseeable future, many increasingly wished to settle permanently elsewhere. In addition, starting in 2014, Lebanon, Jordan and Egypt stopped accepting Syrian asylum seekers. Together these events caused a surge in people fleeing to Europe in 2015.[240]
In the 2015 federal election, the Conservative Party lost power to the Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau, moving the third-placed Liberals from 36 seats to 184 seats, the largest-ever numerical increase by a party in a Canadian federal election. As Prime Minister, major government initiatives he undertook during his first term include legalizing recreational marijuana through the Cannabis Act; attempting Senate appointment reform by establishing the Independent Advisory Board for Senate Appointments and establishing the federal carbon tax; while grappling with ethics investigations concerning the Aga Khan affair and later, the SNC-Lavalin affair.
General elections were held in Barbados on 24 May 2018.[248] The result was a landslide victory for the opposition Barbados Labour Party (BLP), which won all 30 seats in the House of Assembly,[249] resulting in BLP leader Mia Mottley becoming the country's first female Prime Minister. The BLP's victory was the first time a party had won every seat in the House of Assembly. The ruling Democratic Labour Party (DLP) led by Freundel Stuart lost all 16 seats,[249] the worst defeat of a sitting government in Barbadian history. The DLP saw its vote share more than halve compared to the previous elections in 2013, with only one of its candidates receiving more than 40 percent of the vote. Stuart was defeated in his own constituency, receiving only 26.7 percent of the vote,[250] the second time a sitting Prime Minister had lost their own seat. The election was fought primarily on the DLP's stewardship of the economy during its decade in power. The government had had to contend with numerous downgrades of its credit rating due to fallout from the global financial crisis. The BLP criticised the DLP over rising taxes and a declining standard of living, and promised numerous infrastructure upgrades if elected.[250]
A constitutional referendum was held in Cuba on 24 February 2019.[260] Voters were asked whether they approved of a new constitution passed by the National Assembly of People's Power in July 2018.[261] The reforms were approved, with 90.61% of valid votes cast in favour. The new constitution came into force on 10 April 2019 after it was proclaimed in the Cuban National Assembly and published in the Official Gazette of the Republic.[262] The referendum recognized both private property and foreign direct investment, among other things, such as removing obstacles to same-sex marriage and banning discrimination based on gender, race, ethnic origin, sexual orientation, gender identity, or disability, the introduction of habeas corpus and restoration of a presumption of innocence in the justice system which was last provided for in the 1940 Constitution of Cuba, and other political reforms, such as presidential term and age limits, as checks on government power.[263] The new constitution also omits the aim of building a communist society and instead works towards the construction of socialism.[264]
Haiti
Due to the January 2010 earthquake, Haitian presidential election was indefinitely postponed;[265] although November 28 was then decided as the date to hold the presidential and legislative elections. Following the magnitude 7.0 earthquake, there were concerns of instability in the country, and the election came amid international pressure over instability in the country.[266] Some questioned whether Haiti was ready to hold an election following the earthquake that left more than a million people in makeshift camps and without IDs. There was also a fear that the election could throw the country into a political crisis due to a lack of transparency and voting fraud.[267] The United Nations voted to extend MINUSTAH's mandate amid fears of instability.
Amid allegations of fraud in the 2015 elections, Michel Martelly resigned the presidency on 10 February 2016, leaving Haiti without a president for a week. The National Assembly elected on 17 February 2016Jocelerme Privert as provisional President.[268][269] Privert formed a month-long verification commission to restore legitimacy to the electoral process. In May 2016, the commission audited about 13,000 ballots and determined that the elections had been dishonest and recommended a complete rerun of the election.[270][271]
Protests began in cities throughout Haiti on 7 July 2018 in response to increased fuel prices. Over time, these protests evolved into demands for the resignation of the president. Led by opposition politician Jean-Charles Moïse (no relation), protesters stated that their goal was to create a transitional government, provide social programs, and prosecute allegedly corrupt officials. Hundreds of thousands took part in weekly protests calling for the government to resign.[272][273][274][275][276]
Peña Nieto continued the drug war with no better success than Calderon had had. Low points were the September 26, 2014 Ayotzinapa (Iguala) mass kidnapping of 43 students enrolled in a teachers' college in the southern state of Guerrero,[278][279] and the 2015 prison escape of notorious drug-dealer Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán. Peña Nieto was also personally wrapped up in a corruption scandal involving a US$7 million (MXN $100 million) house known as La Casa Blanca ("The White House") purchased by his showcase wife, actress Angélica Rivera. This was just one of many scandals that rocked his administration.[280] By the time he left office in 2018 he had an 18% approval and a 77% disapproval rating, making him one of the least popular presidents in Mexican history.[281]
Andrés Manuel López Obrador (commonly called "AMLO") was a candidate for president for the third time in the 2018 Mexican general election, representing the Juntos Haremos Historia ("Together we will make history"), coalition. He won with 53% of the vote. AMLO ended the drug war and established a National Guard, but violence continued to plague the nation:.[282] It was reported that 2019 was the most violent year in Mexican history, with 29,574 homicides and femicides registered during the first ten months of the year.[283] AMLO has run an austere government, cracking down on corruption, reducing government salaries (including his own), and selling off properties seized during drug raids as well as government vehicles, including the presidential plane.[283]
The ACA's major provisions came into force in 2014. By 2016, the uninsured share of the population had roughly halved, with estimates ranging from 20 to 24 million additional people covered.[288][289] The law also enacted a host of delivery system reforms intended to constrain healthcare costs and improve quality. After it went into effect, increases in overall healthcare spending slowed, including premiums for employer-based insurance plans.[290]
The increased coverage was due, roughly equally, to an expansion of Medicaid eligibility and to changes to individual insurance markets. Both received new spending, funded through a combination of new taxes and cuts to Medicare provider rates and Medicare Advantage. Several Congressional Budget Office (CBO) reports said that overall these provisions reduced the budget deficit, that repealing ACA would increase the deficit,[291][292] and that the law reduced income inequality by taxing primarily the top 1% to fund roughly $600 in benefits on average to families in the bottom 40% of the income distribution.[293]
Before and after enactment the ACA faced strong political opposition, calls for repeal and legal challenges. In National Federation of Independent Business v. Sebelius, the Supreme Court ruled that states could choose not to participate in the law's Medicaid expansion, but upheld the law as a whole.[295] The federal health insurance exchange, HealthCare.gov, faced major technical problems at the beginning of its rollout in 2013. Polls initially found that a plurality of Americans opposed the act, although its individual provisions were generally more popular.[296] By 2017, the law had majority support.[297] The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 set the individual mandate penalty at $0 starting in 2019 due to its overall unpopularity and to reduce the federal budget deficit.[298][299]
The Republican Party, which gained control of the House of Representatives in January 2011, demanded that President Obama negotiate over deficit reduction in exchange for an increase in the debt ceiling, the statutory maximum of money the Treasury is allowed to borrow. The debt ceiling had routinely been raised in the past without partisan debate or additional terms or conditions. This reflects the fact that the debt ceiling does not prescribe the amount of spending, but only ensures that the government can pay for the spending to which it has already committed itself. Some use the analogy of an individual "paying their bills."
If the United States breached its debt ceiling and were unable to resort to other "extraordinary measures", the Treasury would have to either default on payments to bondholders or immediately curtail payment of funds owed to various companies and individuals that had been mandated but not fully funded by Congress. Both situations would likely have led to a significant international financial crisis.
On July 31, two days prior to when the Treasury estimated the borrowing authority of the United States would be exhausted, Republicans agreed to raise the debt ceiling in exchange for a complex deal of significant future spending cuts. The crisis did not permanently resolve the potential of future use of the debt ceiling in budgetary disputes, as shown by the subsequent crisis in 2013.
The crisis sparked the most volatile week for financial markets since the 2007–2008 financial crisis, with the stock market trending significantly downward. Prices of government bonds ("Treasuries") rose as investors, anxious over the dismal prospects of the US economic future and the ongoing European sovereign-debt crisis, fled into the still-perceived relative safety of US government bonds. Later that week, the credit-rating agency Standard & Poor'sdowngraded the credit rating of the United States government for the first time in the country's history, though the other two major credit-rating agencies, Moody's and Fitch, retained America's credit rating at AAA. The Government Accountability Office (GAO) estimated that the delay in raising the debt ceiling increased government borrowing costs by $1.3 billion in 2011 and also pointed to unestimated higher costs in later years.[300] The Bipartisan Policy Center extended the GAO's estimates and found that delays in raising the debt ceiling would raise borrowing costs by $18.9 billion.[301]
Robert Mueller's Special Counsel investigation (2017–2019) concluded that Russia interfered to favor Trump's candidacy and that while the prevailing evidence "did not establish that members of the Trump campaign conspired or coordinated with the Russian government", possible obstructions of justice occurred during the course of that investigation. Trump attempted to pressure Ukraine to announce investigations into his political rival Joe Biden, triggering his first impeachment by the House of Representatives on December18, 2019, but he was acquitted by the Senate on February5, 2020. Trump reacted slowly to the COVID-19 pandemic, ignored or contradicted many recommendations from health officials in his messaging, and promoted misinformation about unproven treatments and the availability of testing.
Map of Latin America showing countries with centre-left, left-wing or socialist governments (red) and centre-right, right-wing or conservative governments (blue) in 2011 (left) and 2018 (right).
To address climate change and reform energy policy, in August 2018 Turnbull proposed the National Energy Guarantee. Although initially agreed to by the Cabinet, the policy was ultimately rejected by the party room. This, combined with poor opinion polling, led to Peter Duttonchallenging Turnbull for the Liberal leadership. Although Turnbull defeated Dutton in the party room, a majority of MPs demanded a second spill, which Turnbull did not contest. On 24 August 2018, Scott Morrison defeated Dutton and Julie Bishop in the contest, and replaced Turnbull as Prime Minister. Morrison went on to lead the Coalition to a surprise victory in the 2019 election.[321] He was criticised for his government's response to the 2019–20 bushfires.[322][323]
Before mounting her successful 2010 challenge to Rudd's leadership, Gillard had served as Deputy Prime Minister in the first Rudd government. With Treasurer Wayne Swan as her Deputy, Gillard went on to lead her party to the 2010 Australian federal election against the Liberal-National Coalition led by Tony Abbott. The election resulted in a hung Parliament in which Gillard secured the support of the Australian Greens and three independents to form a government. Leadership challenges occurred intermittently between Gillard and Rudd resulting in Labor leadership spills in February 2012, March 2013 and June 2013, the last of which ended her prime ministership.
Management of the Labor Party's alliances with the Greens and Independents were an ongoing issue following the 2010 election. In late 2011, the government secured the defection of a Liberal member Peter Slipper to serve as Speaker of the House of Representatives. Slipper resigned as speaker in October. In early 2012 the government lost the support of independent Andrew Wilkie. In May 2012 it suspended backbencher Craig Thomson from the ALP as evidence mounted that he had defrauded the Health Services Union. The Greens ended their formal alliance with Labor in February 2013 over taxation policy, but continued to offer confidence and supply.[324]
Abbott campaigned in opposition and in office to halt the people smuggling trade, and unauthorised maritime arrivals ceased during his term of office under Operation Sovereign Borders.[329] In foreign policy, Australia continued its military engagement in the Middle-East, amid the worsening Syrian conflict. In 2015, The Abbott government agreed to resettle an additional 12,000 refugees from the region.[330] Abbott and Foreign MinisterJulie Bishop challenged Russia at the United Nations over the shooting down of Malaysian Flight MH17 in Ukraine. The government launched the New Colombo Plan to encourage educational exchange with the Indo-Pacific region.
Domestically, Abbott campaigned for recognition of Indigenous Australians in the Australian Constitution, flagging a referendum for 2017, and promised a plebiscite on the issue of same-sex marriage. Investments in air and road infrastructure were prioritised. Many of Abbott's proposed policies were opposed by the Australian Senate which was, during the Abbott government, controlled by opposition parties. The 2013 election saw the emergence of the right-wing Palmer United Party, which lead to fears that conservative voters would defect from supporting Abbott's Liberal coalition, but Palmer United fractured soon after. The Liberal Party faced Cabinet leaks and early leadership instability, after a poorly received first Budget and amid media criticism.[331] Abbott became the shortest-serving Australian Prime Minister since William McMahon, when his government was succeeded by the Turnbull government. Turnbull cited Newspoll results and "economic leadership" as reasons for mounting his challenge against Abbott.[332]
In mounting his 2015 public challenge for the leadership, Turnbull cited extended poor polling in Newspoll by the Abbott government and said Australia needed a new style of "economic leadership".[335] Turnbull appointed Morrison as Treasurer in an expanded ministry, promoting several key supporters.[336]Julie Bishop remained as Minister for Foreign Affairs. Conservatives Tony Abbott, Eric Abetz and Kevin Andrews were sent to the backbench. Joe Hockey left Parliament. The Turnbull government continued a number of Abbott government initiatives, promising a plebiscite legalising same-sex marriage, concluding Abbott era initiatives on an anti-domestic violence campaign, funding the National Disability Insurance Scheme, signing a China free trade deal, and reforming Senate voting.[337]
The April 2016 refusal of the Senate to pass the government's bill to re-establish a watchdog for the construction industry provided Turnbull with a double dissolution trigger.[338] An election was held on 2 July, and the government was returned with its majority in the House of Representatives reduced to one seat.[339] The 2016 election saw a resurgence of the right wing Pauline Hanson's One Nation Party, and discontented conservative Liberal Senator Cory Bernardi left the party and established the Australian Conservatives soon after. The now elected Turnbull government secured passage of the Registered Organisations and Australian Building and Construction Commission legislation. In 2017, it announced Federal funds for expansion of Snowy Hydro. In June 2017, it introduced the "Gonski 2.0" reforms to schools funding. Factional strains continued.
Turnbull's ousting of Abbott had divided the Liberal Party rank and file and tensions continued in the parliamentary Party.[340][341][342] Abbott said Turnbull supporters had plotted against him.[343][344] The government reached the 30-consecutive-Newspoll-losses benchmark Turnbull had used to unseat Abbott, in April 2018.[345] The Parliament faced a period of instability under the 2017–18 Australian parliamentary eligibility crisis, and the Turnbull government briefly lost its parliamentary majority and Deputy Prime Minister Joyce.[346] Joyce was re-elected, but in February 2018 Turnbull denounced him and forced his resignation after the press reported on an office affair he had been conducting with a staffer.[347] By-election losses in July 2018 further diminished Turnbull's authority.[348] Dissent from conservative MPs over issues such as energy prices and immigration levels grew during Turnbull's final months. On 21 August, Turnbull announced a leadership spill ahead of his 39th consecutive Newspoll loss, which he narrowly won against Peter Dutton. Turnbull resigned three days later after narrowly losing the confidence of his Party room. Turnbull blamed Abbott, Dutton and conservative media commentators.
Following the crisis in December, on 26 January 2012 when a group of military personnel headed by retired Colonel Yaura Sasa took the commander of the defence force, Brigadier General Francis Agwi, prisoner. After forces under Sasa's command captured Agwi on 26 January, the colonel called upon the Governor-General to reinstate Somare as the country's leader and threatened to take further action if this did not occur. The mutiny ended later that day, with Agwi being freed. Sasa was arrested and charged with mutiny on 28 January.[355]
The 2012 election, however, gave a clear victory to O'Neill. Somare accepted the outcome and he even supported the election of O'Neill as prime minister.[356]
Bougainville
A non-binding independence referendum was held in Bougainville,[357] an autonomous region of Papua New Guinea, between 23 November and 7 December 2019. The referendum question was a choice between greater autonomy within Papua New Guinea and full independence; voters voted overwhelmingly (98.31%) for independence.
^Ruthven, Malise (June 23, 2016). "How to Understand ISIS". New York Review of Books. 63 (11). Archived from the original on August 7, 2016. Retrieved June 12, 2016.
^Hoyle, Justin A. "A Matter of Framing: Explaining The Failure of Post-Islamist Social Movements in the Arab Spring." DOMES: Digest of Middle East Studies 25.2 (2016): 186–209. Academic Search Complete. Web. 18 November 2016.
^Yemen's Government demands UN action regards Houthi violation of dealArchived 13 September 2024 at the Wayback Machine, Yemen's government has demanded UN action against Iran-backed Houthi militants for violating the Hodeidah deal, state news agency Saba New reported. Yemen's Economic Council – a state advisory body composed of cabinet members – said the militants looted the central bank in Hodeidah city and were delaying the fuel and food that arrive at the Hodeidah port. The looted funds were supposed to be used to pay salaries of public workers, who have not received payments for months, according to the report. This money will now "feed the militia's pointless war," the council said. On Wednesday, Yemen's Information Minister Muammar Al-Eryani said Houthis are looting and extorting the private healthcare sector.
^Malcolm Turnbull (Prime Minister); Julie Bishop (Minister for Foreign Affairs); Marise Payne (Minister for Defence) (10 December 2017). "Liberation Of Iraq From ISIS". Department of Defence – Australian Government. Archived from the original on 11 December 2017. Retrieved 11 December 2017. The Australian Government congratulates the people of Iraq after Prime Minister Haider Al-Abadi today announced that all areas of Iraq have been liberated from ISIS control. ... While today's announcement by the Iraqi government is an historic moment, Iraq's liberation does not mean the fight against terrorism and ISIS in Iraq is over. ISIS fighters who escaped capture will seek to conduct an insurgency to continue their legacy of death and destruction.
^"Theresa May hails 'historic moment' as Islamic State is driven out of Iraq". Derbyshire Times. December 10, 2017. Archived from the original on December 11, 2017. Retrieved December 11, 2017. Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson praised Iraqi achievements but said Islamic State remained a threat. "The fight though isn't over, as the group continue to pose a threat from across the Syrian border. "They can plan and inspire terrorist attacks, which rally their branches worldwide and continue to inspire others at home and abroad to do us harm.
^Aboulenein, Ahmed (December 10, 2017). "Iraq holds victory parade after defeating Islamic State". Reuters. Reuters. Archived from the original on December 10, 2017. Retrieved December 11, 2017. Baghdad, Dec 10 (Reuters) – An Iraqi military parade in Baghdad's heavily fortified Green Zone celebrated final victory over Islamic State on Sunday, with Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi looking on as troops marched in formation, their bodies spelling "victory day" in Arabic. ... The forces fighting Islamic State in Iraq and Syria now expect a new phase of guerrilla warfare.
^Vlasic, Mark (2012). "Assassination & Targeted Killing – A Historical and Post-Bin Laden Legal Analysis". Georgetown Journal of International Law: 261.
^眾志衝入政總靜坐促撤回逃犯條例修訂 [Demosistō got to HK Govt. HQ against the extradition bill amendment] (video). Now.com (in Chinese). March 15, 2019. Archived from the original on November 4, 2019.
^Welzel, Christian; Inglehart, Ronald; Bernhangen, Patrick; Haerpfer, Christian W. (2019), "Introduction", in Welzel, Christian; Inglehart, Ronald; Bernhangen, Patrick; Haerpfer, Christian W. (eds.), Democratization, Oxford University Press, pp. 4, 7, ISBN978-0-19-873228-0, (p.7) Our diagram ... reveals that India's score in comprehensive democracy is at best half the Western level, which conflicts with the standard democracy measures by Polity and Freedom House where India scores much higher. On the other hand, India's modest democracy performance in the V-Dem data fully confirms Alexander, Welzel, and Inglehart (2012) who argue that India's state of democracy is overestimated by standard measures and needs to take account of serious deficiencies in rule of law and human rights enforcement (cf. Inglehart and Welzel 2005; Welzel and Inglehart 2006; Alexander and Welzel 2011).' The recent considerable drop of the 'Indic East' mainly reflects India's democratic backsliding under the Hindu-nationalist administration of Modi. (p.4 The 'Indic East' comprises those nations in South Asia whose history was shaped by Indian culture.)
^Chidambaram, Soundarya (2022), "India's Inexorable Path to Autocratization: Looking beyond Modi and the populist lens", in Widmalm, Sten (ed.), Routledge Handbook of Autocratization in South Asia, Routledge, pp. 130–148, doi:10.4324/9781003042211-11, S2CID245210210, (T)he electoral success of populist parties has also coincided with a decline of democracy across the globe (Giinther and Liihrmann, 2018). The focal point in this regard is the rise of populist demagogues and authoritarian strongmen who have caused democratic decline by cracking down on political dissent and curbing the autonomy of the judiciary and the free press, thus creating the conditions for democratic backsliding and decline (Levitsky and Ziblatt, 2018). The path of the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) in India since 2014 seems to fit this description. The BJP's hegemonic control of Indian politics has been coterminous with aggressive cultural nationalist rhetoric manifesting itself as routinized intimidation and killing of journalists and political critics, vigilante lynching of Muslims, and a general clampdown on dissent (Kesavan, 2017). Narendra Modi, the Prime Minister and leader of the BJP epitomizes the populist strongman with his charismatic appeal, centralization of power (Vaishnav, 2019), and ability to connect with the masses through clever use of media (Martelli and Jaffrelot, 2017; Vaishnav, 2021). Not surprisingly, scholars and commentators looking at contemporary Indian politics converge on the idea that Modi's populist leadership of the BJP is the reason for the havoc being wreaked on democratic institutions in the country (Kinnvall, 2019; Chatterji et al., 2019; Basu, 2018; Chacko, 2018; Nilsen, 2018)
^"India: Freedom in the World 2021 Country Report". Freedom House. 2021. While India is a multiparty democracy, the government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has presided over discriminatory policies and increased violence affecting the Muslim population. The constitution guarantees civil liberties including freedom of expression and freedom of religion, but harassment of journalists, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), and other government critics has increased significantly under Modi.
^Habib, Mohshin; Jubb, Christine; Ahmad, Salahuddin; Rahman, Masudur; Pallard, Henri (July 18, 2018). Forced migration of Rohingya: the untold experience. Ontario International Development Agency, Canada. ISBN978-0-9866815-1-6. Archived from the original on July 17, 2019. Retrieved July 26, 2019 – via National Library of Australia (new catalog).
^ abRuthven, Malise (June 23, 2016). "How to Understand ISIS". New York Review of Books. 63 (11). Archived from the original on August 7, 2016. Retrieved June 12, 2016.
^Emmanuel Guerisoli. "The New-Old Terror Wave in Europe". Public Seminar. 13 September 2017. Quote: "Europe is currently in a new expansionist phase of this latest cycle of terror. [...] The Brussels Jewish Museum attack in May 2014 is the first incident of this new expansive phase".
^Maria do Céu Pinto Arena. Islamic Terrorism in the West and International Migrations: The 'Far' or 'Near' Enemy Within?. Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies, May 2017. pp.15, 20
^"Vurdering af terrortruslen mod Danmark". pet.dk. Danish Security and Intelligence Service. January 2018. p. 5. Archived from the original on March 7, 2022. Retrieved November 30, 2021. Gerningsmændene til angreb i Europa har i mange tilfælde været kendt af sikkerhedsmyndighederne i forvejen for at nære sympati for militant islamisme. Der har også været tilfælde, hvor personer gennemgik en meget hurtig radikalisering eller har haft psykiske eller andre personlige problemer. Siden efteråret 2015 har en række personer indrejst med flygtningestrømmen været involveret i angreb, herunder afviste asylansøgere.
^Government Accountability Office. "Analysis of 2011-2012 Actions Taken and Effect of Delayed Increase on Borrowing Costs." GAO-12-701. July 2012. http://www.gao.gov/assets/600/592832.pdf.
^Khan, M Ilyas (June 21, 2018). "Ardern and Bhutto: Two different pregnancies in power". BBC News. Archived from the original on June 22, 2018. Retrieved June 22, 2018. Now that New Zealand's Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has hit world headlines by becoming only the second elected head of government to give birth in office, attention has naturally been drawn to the first such leader – Pakistan's late two-time Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto.
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