2020 United States presidential election in Iowa

Main article: 2020 United States presidential election

2020 United States presidential election in Iowa
← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout75.77% (Increase3.0 pp)
 
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Electoral vote 6 0
Popular vote 897,672 759,061
Percentage 53.09% 44.89%
President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

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The 2020 United States presidential election in Iowa was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] Iowa voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump of Florida, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence of Indiana against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden of Delaware, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Iowa has six electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Trump won the state 53.1% to Biden's 44.9%. Prior to this election, most news organizations had considered Iowa as either leaning towards Trump or a tossup. As was the case in Ohio, this election has confirmed Iowa's trend from a Midwestern swing state toward the GOP column, the same trend as neighboring Missouri starting in 2008. Iowa had voted Democratic in six of seven elections prior to 2016, the exception being George W. Bush's narrow plurality win in 2004. In 2016, however, Iowa voted for Trump by an unexpectedly large margin of 9.4%, voting over ten points to the right of the nation overall, indicating a possible realignment of the previously Democratic-leaning state towards the GOP, much as in the case of West Virginia in 2000 and 2004. Even though Biden contested the state,[3] Trump ended up carrying it by only a slightly reduced margin of 8.2% even as his national margin of defeat grew by 2.4%, meaning that the state voted even further to the right of the national average than it did in 2016.

This marked the first time since 2000 that the state voted for the national loser, and the first since 1988 that it voted for the loser of the popular and electoral vote. Biden improved on Hillary Clinton's margins in the Des Moines and Cedar Rapids metropolitan areas and traditionally conservative western Iowa, the latter of which borders Nebraska's 2nd congressional district (Omaha metropolitan area), an electoral vote Trump won in 2016 but lost in 2020. Trump improved on his 2016 performance in populist northeast and south Iowa and became the first Republican to win Iowa in back-to-back elections since Ronald Reagan in 1980 and 1984. Biden also became the first Democrat to be elected president without winning Iowa since Jimmy Carter in 1976.

Iowa is one of three states that voted twice for Barack Obama and Trump, the other two being Ohio and Florida. This is also the first time since 2004 that Iowa voted for a different candidate than neighboring Wisconsin.

Caucuses

The state's caucuses, traditionally the first major electoral event in the country, were held on February 3, 2020.[4]

Republican caucuses

Main article: 2020 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses

Incumbent president Donald Trump received about 97 percent of the votes in the Republican caucuses, and received 39 of the GOP delegates, while Bill Weld received enough votes to clinch 1 delegate.[5]

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses § results.[edit]
county
Counties won by these popular vote results
Map legend
  •   Trump—100%
  •   Trump—≥95%
  •   Trump—90–95%
  •   Trump—85–90%
congressional district
Congressional districts won by these popular vote results
Map legend
  •   Trump—≥95%
2020 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses[6][7]
Candidate Votes % Estimated
delegates
Donald Trump (incumbent) 31,421 97.14 39
Bill Weld 425 1.31 1
Joe Walsh 348 1.08 0
Other 151 0.47 0
Total 32,345 100% 40

Democratic caucuses

Main article: 2020 Iowa Democratic presidential caucuses

After a three-day delay in votes being reported, the Iowa Democratic Party declared that Pete Buttigieg had narrowly won the state delegate equivalent (SDE) count of the Democratic caucuses with 26.2 percent. Bernie Sanders came in second with 26.1 percent of the SDEs, despite the fact that he received more popular votes (26.5 percent) than Buttigieg (25.1 percent). Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, and Amy Klobuchar finished in third, fourth, and fifth place, respectively.[8]

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Iowa Democratic presidential caucuses § IAresults.[edit]
2020 Iowa Democratic presidential caucuses[9][10][11]
Candidate Initial
alignment 		Final
alignment[a] 		State delegate
equivalents[b] 		Pledged
national
convention
delegates[12][c]
Votes % Votes % Number %
Pete Buttigieg 37,572 21.31 43,209 25.08 562.95 26.17 [d]14
Bernie Sanders 43,581 24.71 45,652 26.50 562.02 26.13 [e]12
Elizabeth Warren 32,589 18.48 34,909 20.26 388.44 18.06 [f]8
Joe Biden 26,291 14.91 23,605 13.70 340.32 15.82 [g]6
Amy Klobuchar 22,454 12.73 21,100 12.25 263.87 12.27 1
Andrew Yang 8,914 5.05 1,758 1.02 21.86 1.02
Tom Steyer 3,061 1.74 413 0.24 6.62 0.31
Michael Bloomberg (did not run yet)[h] 212 0.12 16 0.01 0.21 0.01
Tulsi Gabbard 341 0.19 16 0.01 0.11 0.01
Michael Bennet 164 0.09 4 0.00 0.00 0.00
Deval Patrick 9 0.01 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
John Delaney (withdrawn) 0 0.00 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Other 155 0.09 198 0.11 0.69 0.03
Uncommitted 1,009 0.57 1,420 0.82 3.73 0.17
Total[i] 176,352 100% 172,300 100% 2,150.83 100% 41

Libertarian caucuses

Main article: 2020 Libertarian Party presidential primaries
2020 Iowa Libertarian presidential caucuses
February 8, 2020 2024 →
← NH
MN →
 
Candidate Jacob Hornberger Lincoln Chafee
Home state Virginia Wyoming
Popular vote 133 36
Percentage 47.52% 12.77%
 
Candidate Jo Jorgensen Adam Kokesh
Home state South Carolina Indiana
Popular vote 18 17
Percentage 6.38% 6.03%
Election results by county
  Jacob Hornberger
  Lincoln Chafee
  Jo Jorgensen
  Adam Kokesh
  Dan Behrman
  John McAfee
  Vermin Supreme
  Sam Robb
  Ken Armstrong
  Tie
  No votes
Iowa Libertarian presidential caucus, February 8, 2020[15]
Candidate Votes Percentage
Jacob Hornberger 133 47.52%
Lincoln Chafee 36 12.77%
Jo Jorgensen 18 6.38%
Adam Kokesh 17 6.03%
Dan Behrman 14 4.96%
John McAfee 10 3.55%
Vermin Supreme 9 3.19%
Other (write-in) 8 2.84%
None of the above 8 2.84%
Sam Robb 7 2.48%
Max Abramson 6 2.13%
Mark Whitney 4 1.42%
Arvin Vohra 3 1.06%
Ken Armstrong 2 0.71%
Souraya Faas 2 0.71%
Benjamin Leder 1 0.35%
John Monds 1 0.35%
Total 281 100%

The Libertarian Party of Iowa conducted their own caucuses on February 8, offering in-person caucus locations and an online virtual caucus. Only registered Libertarian voters were eligible to participate.[16][17]

General election

Final predictions

Source Ranking
The Cook Political Report[18] Tossup
Inside Elections[19] Tossup
Sabato's Crystal Ball[20] Lean R
Politico[21] Tossup
RCP[22] Tossup
Niskanen[23] Tossup
CNN[24] Tossup
The Economist[25] Tossup
CBS News[26] Tossup
270towin[27] Tossup
ABC News[28] Tossup
NPR[29] Tossup
NBC News[30] Tossup
538[31] Lean R

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
[j] 		Margin
270 to Win[32] October 31 – November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 46.2% 47.8% 6.0% Trump +1.6
Real Clear Politics[33] October 23 – November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 45.6% 47.6% 6.8% Trump +2.0
FiveThirtyEight[34] until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 46.3% 47.6% 6.1% Trump +1.3
Average 46.0% 47.7% 6.3% Trump +1.5

Polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[k] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian 		Howie
Hawkins
Green 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[35] Nov 1–2, 2020 871 (V) – 48% 49% – – 2%[l] 1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[36] Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 1,489 (LV) ± 3.5% 51%[m] 48% – – – –
Change Research[37] Oct 29 – Nov 1, 2020 1,084 (LV) ± 3.2% 47% 47% 3% 0% 2%[n] 1%
Civiqs/Daily Kos[38] Oct 29 – Nov 1, 2020 853 (LV) ± 3.7% 48% 49% – – 3%[o] 0%
Data for Progress[39] Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 951 (LV) ± 3.2% 49% 47% 3% 1% 1%[p] –
Emerson College[40] Oct 29–31, 2020 604 (LV) ± 3.9% 49%[q] 47% – – 4% 0%
InsiderAdvantage/Center for American Greatness[41][A] October 30, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 48% 46% 1% – – 6%
Selzer & Co./Des Moines Register[42] Oct 26–29, 2020 814 (LV) ± 3.4% 48% 41% – – 8%[r] 2%[s]
SurveyMonkey/Axios[36] Oct 1–28, 2020 3,005 (LV) ± 2.5% 50% 49% – – – 2%
Quinnipiac University[43] Oct 23–27, 2020 1,225 (LV) ± 2.8% 47% 46% – – 1%[t] 6%
RABA Research/WHO13 News[44] Oct 21–24, 2020 693 (LV) ± 4% 46% 50% – – 2%[l] 1%
Emerson College[45] Oct 19–21, 2020 435 (LV) ± 4.7% 48%[q] 48% – – 4%[u] 0%
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ[46] Oct 15–21, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47%[v] 47% – – 2%[l] 4%
45%[w] 49% – – 2%[l] 4%
49%[x] 48% – – 2%[l] 4%
Siena College/NYT Upshot[47] Oct 18–20, 2020 753 (LV) ± 3.9% 43% 46% 2% 1% 1%[y] 7%[z]
Insider Advantage/Center for American Greatness[48][A] Oct 18–19, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 45% 45% 2% – – 8%
Monmouth University[49] Oct 15–19, 2020 501 (RV) ± 4.4% 48% 47% 1% 0%[aa] 2%[ab] 2%
501 (LV)[ac] 47% 50% – – – –
501 (LV)[ad] 46% 51% – – – –
David Binder Research/Focus on Rural America[50] Oct 10–13, 2020 200 (LV) – 50% 44% – – – –
Data for Progress (D)[51] Oct 8–11, 2020 822 (LV) ± 3.4% 48% 47% 2% 0% – 3%
YouGov/CBS[52] Oct 6–9, 2020 1,035 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 49% – – 2%[ae] 0%
Opinion Insight/American Action Forum[53][B] Oct 5–8, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.46% 46%[q] 47% – – 3%[af] 4%[z]
Civiqs/Daily Kos[54] Oct 3–6, 2020 756 (LV) ± 3.9% 47% 48% – – 4%[u] 1%
Quinnipiac University[55] Oct 1–5, 2020 1,205 (LV) ± 2.8% 45% 50% – – 2%[l] 3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[36] Sep 1–30, 2020 1,276 (LV) – 52% 46% – – – 2%
Data for Progress (D)[56] Sep 23–28, 2020 743 (LV) ± 3.6% 47%[v] 44% 1% 1% – 6%
50%[ag] 45% – – – 5%
Hart Research Associates/Human Rights Campaign[57][C] Sep 24–27, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 49% 47% – – – –
RABA Research/WHO13 News[58] Sep 23–26, 2020 780 (LV) ± 4% 46% 48% – – 2%[ah] 4%
Monmouth University[59] Sep 18–22, 2020 402 (RV) ± 4.9% 50% 44% 2% 0% 1%[ai] 2%
402 (LV) 49%[ac] 46% 2% – 2%[aj] 2%
49%[ad] 46% 2% – 2%[aj] 2%
Siena College/NYT Upshot[60] Sep 16–22, 2020 501 (LV) ± 4.99% 42% 45% 2% 0% 1%[y] 10%[z]
Selzer & Co./Des Moines Register[61] Sep 14–17, 2020 658 (LV) ± 3.8% 47% 47% – – 4%[u] 3%
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates/AARP[62] Aug 30 – Sep 5, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 45% – – 1%[ak] 6%
Opinion Insight/American Action Forum[63][B] Aug 30 – Sep 2, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.46% 51%[q] 43% 3% 1% – 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[36] Aug 1–31, 2020 983 (LV) – 53% 46% – – – 2%
Monmouth University[64] Jul 30 – Aug 3, 2020 401 (RV) ± 4.9% 48% 45% 3% – <1%[al] 3%
401 (LV) 48%[ac] 46% 2% <1%[am] 3%
47%[ad] 47% 2% 0%[an] 3%
Data for Progress[65] Jul 24 – Aug 2, 2020 1,101 (LV) – 44%[v] 42% 3% 1% – 10%
46%[ag] 45% – – – 9%
David Binder Research/Focus on Rural America[66] Jul 30–31, 2020 200 (LV) – 43% 49% – – – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios[36] Jul 1–31, 2020 1,095 (LV) – 54% 45% – – – 1%
RMG Research[67] Jul 27–30, 2020 500 (RV) ± 4.5% 41% 40% – – 7% 13%
Public Policy Polling/AFSCME[68][D] Jul 23–24, 2020 1,118 (V) – 48% 47% – – – 6%
Spry Strategies/American Principles Project[69][E] Jul 11–16, 2020 701 (LV) ± 3.7% 46% 48% – – – 7%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[36] Jun 8–30, 2020 455 (LV) – 50% 48% – – – 2%
Selzer/Des Moines Register[70] Jun 7–10, 2020 674 (LV) ± 3.8% 44% 43% – – 10%[ao] 3%
Civiqs/Daily Kos[71] Jun 6–8, 2020 865 (RV) ± 3.8% 46% 46% – – 7%[ap] 1%
Public Policy Polling/Emily's List[72][F] Jun 3–4, 2020 963 (V) – 48% 47% – – – 5%
Public Policy Polling[73][1] Apr 30 – May 1, 2020 1,222 (V) ± 2.8% 48% 46% – – – 6%
GBAO Strategies/PLUS Paid Family Leave[74] Apr 13–16, 2020 500 (LV) – 48% 45% – – 1% 6%
Selzer/Des Moines Register[75] Mar 2–5, 2020 667 (LV) ± 3.8% 51% 41% – – – –
The New York Times/Siena College[76] Jan 20–23, 2020 1,689 (RV) ± 2.8% 46% 44% – – 5%[aq] 6%
Public Policy Polling[77] Dec 29–31, 2019 964 (V) – 49% 46% – – – 5%
Emerson College[78] Dec 7–10, 2019 1,043 (RV) ± 3% 49% 45% – – – 6%
NYT Upshot/Siena College[79] Oct 25–30, 2019 1,435 (RV) ± 3.1% 45% 44% – – 3% 5%
Emerson College[80] Oct 13–16, 2019 888 (RV) ± 3.2% 51% 49% – – – –
WPA Intelligence (R)[81] Apr 27–30, 2019 200 (LV) ± 6.9% 49% 44% – – – 5%
Emerson College[82] Mar 21–24, 2019 707 (RV) ± 3.6% 47% 53% – – – –
Emerson College[83] Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 (RV) ± 3.4% 49% 51% – – – –
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[k] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Michael
Bloomberg (D) 		Other Undecided
Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co.[75] Mar 2–5, 2020 667 (LV) ± 3.8% 53%[ar] 34% – –
The New York Times/Siena College[76] Jan 20–23, 2020 1,689 (RV) ± 2.8% 47% 39% 7%[as] 8%

Donald Trump vs. Cory Booker

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[k] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Cory
Booker (D) 		Undecided
Emerson College[82] Mar 21–24, 2019 707 (RV) ± 3.6% 52% 48% –

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[k] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Pete
Buttigieg (D) 		Other Undecided
The New York Times/Siena College[76] Jan 20–23, 2020 1,689 (RV) ± 2.8% 45% 44% 4%[at] 7%
Public Policy Polling[77] Jan 2–4, 2020 964 (V) – 48% 47% – 5%
Emerson College[78] Dec 7–10, 2019 1,043 (RV) ± 3% 46% 45% – 9%
NYT Upshot/Siena College[79] Oct 25–30, 2019 1,435 (RV) ± 3.1% 45% 41% 3% 8%

Donald Trump vs. Kirsten Gillibrand

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[k] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Kirsten
Gillibrand (D) 		Undecided
Emerson College[83] Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 (RV) ± 3.4% 54% 46% –

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[k] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Kamala
Harris (D) 		Undecided
Emerson College[82] Mar 21–24, 2019 707 (RV) ± 3.6% 54% 46% –
Emerson College[83] Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 (RV) ± 3.4% 53% 47% –

Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[k] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Amy
Klobuchar (D) 		Other Undecided
The New York Times/Siena College[76] Jan 20–23, 2020 1,689 (RV) ± 2.8% 46% 41% 5%[aq] 8%

Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[k] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Beto
O'Rourke (D) 		Undecided
Emerson College[83] Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 (RV) ± 3.4% 53% 47% –

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[k] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Bernie
Sanders (D) 		Other Undecided
Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co.[75] Mar 2–5, 2020 667 (LV) ± 3.8% 53% 41% – –
The New York Times/Siena College[76] Jan 20–23, 2020 1,689 (RV) ± 2.8% 48% 42% 4%[au] 6%
Public Policy Polling[77] Dec 29–31, 2019 964 (V) – 49% 44% – 7%
Emerson College[78] Dec 7–10, 2019 1,043 (RV) ± 3% 50% 43% – 7%
NYT Upshot/Siena College[79] Oct 25–30, 2019 1,435 (RV) ± 3.1% 47% 43% 3% 4%
Emerson College[80] Oct 13–16, 2019 888 (RV) ± 3.2% 49% 51% – –
Emerson College[82] Mar 21–24, 2019 707 (RV) ± 3.6% 49% 51% – –
Emerson College[83] Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 (RV) ± 3.4% 51% 50% – –

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[k] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Elizabeth
Warren (D) 		Other Undecided
Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co.[75] Mar 2–5, 2020 667 (LV) ± 3.8% 52%[ar] 40% – –
The New York Times/Siena College[76] Jan 20–23, 2020 1,689 (RV) ± 2.8% 47% 42% 5%[aq] 7%
Public Policy Polling[77] Jan 2–4, 2020 964 (V) – 49% 44% – 7%
Emerson College[78] Dec 7–10, 2019 1,043 (RV) ± 3% 50% 43% ± 3% 7%
NYT Upshot/Siena College[79] Oct 25–30, 2019 1,435 (RV) ± 3.1% 47% 40% 2% 7%
Emerson College[80] Oct 13–16, 2019 888 (RV) ± 3.2% 51% 49% – –
Emerson College[82] Mar 21–24, 2019 707 (RV) ± 3.6% 51% 49% – –
Emerson College[83] Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 (RV) ± 3.4% 52% 48% – –
Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump and Sherrod Brown

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[k] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Sherrod
Brown (D) 		Undecided
Emerson College[83] Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 (RV) ± 3.4% 55% 46% –

with Donald Trump and Nancy Pelosi

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[k] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Nancy
Pelosi (D) 		Undecided
Emerson College[83] Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 (RV) ± 3.4% 55% 45% –

with Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, and Howard Schultz

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[k] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Bernie
Sanders (D) 		Howard
Schultz (I) 		Undecided
Emerson College[82] Mar 21–24, 2019 707 (RV) ± 3.6% 47% 46% 8% –

with Donald Trump, Elizabeth Warren, and Howard Schultz

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[k] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Elizabeth
Warren (D) 		Howard
Schultz (I) 		Undecided
Emerson College[82] Mar 21–24, 2019 707 (RV) ± 3.6% 48% 45% 7% –
Emerson College[83] Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 (RV) ± 3.4% 49% 40% 11% –

with Donald Trump and generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[k] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Generic
Democrat 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling/End Citizens United[84][G] Dec 13–15, 2019 944 (V) – 47% 49% 3%
Public Policy Polling[85] Apr 29–30, 2019 780 (V) ± 3.5% 48% 48% –

Results

2020 United States presidential election in Iowa[86]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Donald Trump (incumbent)
Mike Pence (incumbent) 		897,672 53.09% +1.94%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris 		759,061 44.89% +3.15%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen 		19,637 1.16% −2.62%
Independent Kanye West
Michelle Tidball 		3,210 0.19% N/A
Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker 		3,075 0.18% −0.55%
Constitution Don Blankenship
William Mohr 		1,707 0.10% −0.24%
Alliance Rocky De La Fuente
Darcy Richardson 		1,082 0.06% N/A
Genealogy Know Your Family History Ricki Sue King
Dayna Chandler 		546 0.03% N/A
Independent Brock Pierce
Karla Ballard 		544 0.03% N/A
Write-in 4,337 0.38% −1.09%
Total votes 1,690,871 100.00%

By county

County Donald Trump
Republican 		Joe Biden
Democratic 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Adair 2,917 69.83% 1,198 28.68% 62 1.49% 1,719 41.15% 4,177
Adams 1,530 70.83% 590 27.31% 40 1.86% 940 43.52% 2,160
Allamakee 4,735 63.80% 2,576 34.71% 111 1.49% 2,159 29.09% 7,422
Appanoose 4,512 69.24% 1,891 29.02% 113 1.74% 2,621 40.22% 6,516
Audubon 2,295 67.11% 1,071 31.32% 54 1.57% 1,224 35.79% 3,420
Benton 9,188 62.75% 5,160 35.24% 294 2.01% 4,028 27.51% 14,642
Black Hawk 29,640 44.51% 35,647 53.53% 1,306 1.96% -6,097 -9.02% 66,593
Boone 8,695 56.68% 6,303 41.09% 342 2.23% 2,392 15.59% 15,340
Bremer 8,294 57.02% 5,958 40.96% 294 2.02% 2,336 16.06% 14,546
Buchanan 6,420 59.59% 4,169 38.70% 185 1.71% 2,251 20.89% 10,774
Buena Vista 5,056 61.91% 2,961 36.26% 150 1.83% 2,095 25.65% 8,167
Butler 5,542 68.44% 2,424 29.93% 132 1.63% 3,118 38.51% 8,098
Calhoun 3,689 70.16% 1,470 27.96% 99 1.88% 2,219 42.20% 5,258
Carroll 7,737 68.26% 3,454 30.47% 144 1.27% 4,283 37.79% 11,335
Cass 4,969 68.29% 2,201 30.25% 106 1.46% 2,768 38.04% 7,276
Cedar 6,161 57.56% 4,337 40.52% 205 1.92% 1,824 17.04% 10,703
Cerro Gordo 12,442 52.28% 10,941 45.97% 418 1.75% 1,501 6.31% 23,801
Cherokee 4,495 68.96% 1,936 29.70% 87 1.34% 2,559 39.26% 6,518
Chickasaw 4,308 64.97% 2,233 33.68% 90 1.35% 2,075 31.29% 6,631
Clarke 3,144 67.32% 1,466 31.39% 60 1.29% 1,678 35.93% 4,670
Clay 6,137 68.42% 2,662 29.68% 170 1.90% 3,475 38.74% 8,969
Clayton 6,106 63.64% 3,340 34.81% 148 1.55% 2,766 28.83% 9,594
Clinton 13,361 54.12% 10,812 43.80% 514 2.08% 2,549 10.32% 24,687
Crawford 4,854 67.85% 2,220 31.03% 80 1.12% 2,634 36.82% 7,154
Dallas 27,987 49.96% 26,879 47.98% 1,156 2.06% 1,108 1.98% 56,022
Davis 3,032 73.92% 1,013 24.70% 57 1.38% 2,019 49.22% 4,102
Decatur 2,615 68.74% 1,120 29.44% 69 1.82% 1,495 39.30% 3,804
Delaware 6,666 66.64% 3,157 31.56% 180 1.80% 3,509 35.08% 10,003
Des Moines 10,592 53.08% 8,893 44.56% 471 2.36% 1,699 8.52% 19,956
Dickinson 7,438 66.15% 3,661 32.56% 145 1.29% 3,777 33.59% 11,244
Dubuque 27,214 50.47% 25,657 47.58% 1,055 1.95% 1,557 2.89% 53,926
Emmet 3,265 67.28% 1,520 31.32% 68 1.40% 1,745 35.96% 4,853
Fayette 6,145 60.33% 3,835 37.65% 206 2.02% 2,310 22.68% 10,186
Floyd 4,732 58.91% 3,172 39.49% 128 1.60% 1,560 19.42% 8,032
Franklin 3,422 66.71% 1,626 31.70% 82 1.59% 1,796 35.01% 5,130
Fremont 2,711 70.29% 1,080 28.00% 66 1.71% 1,631 42.29% 3,857
Greene 3,223 63.73% 1,769 34.98% 65 1.29% 1,454 28.75% 5,057
Grundy 4,929 67.74% 2,206 30.32% 141 1.94% 2,723 37.42% 7,276
Guthrie 4,272 67.05% 1,985 31.16% 114 1.79% 2,287 35.89% 6,371
Hamilton 4,956 62.39% 2,843 35.79% 144 1.82% 2,113 26.60% 7,943
Hancock 4,390 71.13% 1,683 27.27% 99 1.60% 2,707 43.86% 6,172
Hardin 5,850 65.08% 2,976 33.11% 163 1.81% 2,874 31.97% 8,989
Harrison 5,569 68.29% 2,440 29.92% 146 1.79% 3,129 38.37% 8,155
Henry 6,507 65.19% 3,275 32.81% 200 2.00% 3,232 32.38% 9,982
Howard 3,127 63.07% 1,772 35.74% 59 1.19% 1,355 27.33% 4,958
Humboldt 3,819 71.69% 1,442 27.07% 66 1.24% 2,377 44.62% 5,327
Ida 2,880 74.82% 917 23.82% 52 1.36% 1,963 51.00% 3,849
Iowa 6,009 61.68% 3,547 36.41% 186 1.91% 2,462 25.27% 9,742
Jackson 6,940 62.33% 4,029 36.18% 166 1.49% 2,911 26.15% 11,135
Jasper 12,084 59.87% 7,737 38.33% 363 1.80% 4,347 21.54% 20,184
Jefferson 4,443 49.59% 4,319 48.21% 197 2.20% 125 1.38% 8,959
Johnson 22,925 27.34% 59,177 70.57% 1,749 2.09% -36,252 -43.23% 83,851
Jones 6,572 59.81% 4,213 38.34% 204 1.85% 2,359 21.47% 10,989
Keokuk 3,797 71.60% 1,414 26.66% 92 1.74% 2,383 44.94% 5,303
Kossuth 6,275 69.03% 2,696 29.66% 119 1.31% 3,579 39.37% 9,090
Lee 9,773 58.40% 6,541 39.09% 420 2.51% 3,232 19.31% 16,734
Linn 53,364 41.87% 70,874 55.61% 3,220 2.52% -17,510 -13.74% 127,458
Louisa 3,500 65.64% 1,726 32.37% 106 1.99% 1,774 33.27% 5,332
Lucas 3,287 70.99% 1,284 27.73% 59 1.28% 2,003 43.26% 4,630
Lyon 5,707 83.16% 1,067 15.55% 89 1.29% 4,640 67.61% 6,863
Madison 6,507 66.24% 3,134 31.90% 183 1.86% 3,373 34.34% 9,824
Mahaska 8,297 72.76% 2,894 25.38% 213 1.86% 5,403 47.38% 11,404
Marion 12,663 65.84% 6,178 32.12% 391 2.04% 6,485 33.72% 19,232
Marshall 9,571 52.77% 8,176 45.08% 389 2.15% 1,395 7.69% 18,136
Mills 5,585 67.55% 2,508 30.33% 175 2.12% 3,077 37.22% 8,268
Mitchell 3,677 63.16% 2,053 35.26% 92 1.58% 1,624 27.90% 5,822
Monona 3,248 68.70% 1,407 29.76% 73 1.54% 1,841 38.94% 4,728
Monroe 2,975 72.77% 1,078 26.37% 35 0.86% 1,897 46.40% 4,088
Montgomery 3,659 68.69% 1,583 29.72% 85 1.59% 2,076 38.97% 5,327
Muscatine 10,823 52.36% 9,372 45.34% 476 2.30% 1,451 7.02% 20,671
O'Brien 5,861 77.62% 1,569 20.78% 121 1.60% 4,292 56.84% 7,551
Osceola 2,690 80.83% 601 18.06% 37 1.11% 2,089 62.77% 3,328
Page 5,319 70.66% 2,086 27.71% 123 1.63% 3,233 42.95% 7,528
Palo Alto 3,370 67.97% 1,519 30.64% 69 1.39% 1,851 37.33% 4,958
Plymouth 10,492 73.95% 3,494 24.63% 202 1.42% 6,998 49.32% 14,188
Pocahontas 2,826 73.92% 933 24.40% 64 1.68% 1,893 49.52% 3,823
Polk 106,800 41.27% 146,250 56.52% 5,705 2.21% -39,450 -15.25% 258,755
Pottawattamie 26,247 57.38% 18,575 40.61% 922 2.01% 7,672 16.77% 45,744
Poweshiek 5,657 55.79% 4,306 42.47% 177 1.74% 1,351 13.32% 10,140
Ringgold 1,968 72.51% 709 26.12% 37 1.37% 1,259 46.39% 2,714
Sac 4,061 73.37% 1,389 25.09% 85 1.54% 2,672 48.28% 5,535
Scott 43,683 47.17% 46,926 50.68% 1,990 2.15% -3,243 -3.51% 92,599
Shelby 4,697 69.12% 1,959 28.83% 139 2.05% 2,738 40.29% 6,795
Sioux 15,680 82.31% 3,019 15.85% 352 1.84% 12,661 66.46% 19,051
Story 20,340 39.85% 29,175 57.16% 1,523 2.99% -8,835 -17.31% 51,038
Tama 5,303 58.61% 3,577 39.53% 168 1.86% 1,726 19.08% 9,048
Taylor 2,463 75.81% 746 22.96% 40 1.23% 1,717 52.85% 3,249
Union 4,010 64.83% 2,061 33.32% 114 1.85% 1,949 31.51% 6,185
Van Buren 2,859 75.42% 875 23.08% 57 1.50% 1,984 52.34% 3,791
Wapello 9,516 60.87% 5,821 37.24% 296 1.89% 3,695 23.63% 15,633
Warren 17,782 57.29% 12,574 40.51% 683 2.20% 5,208 16.78% 31,039
Washington 6,971 59.25% 4,561 38.77% 233 1.98% 2,410 20.48% 11,765
Wayne 2,338 75.20% 727 23.38% 44 1.42% 1,611 51.82% 3,109
Webster 10,938 61.37% 6,613 37.11% 271 1.52% 4,325 24.26% 17,822
Winnebago 3,707 62.09% 2,135 35.76% 128 2.15% 1,572 26.33% 5,970
Winneshiek 6,235 51.68% 5,617 46.56% 212 1.76% 618 5.12% 12,064
Woodbury 25,736 56.73% 18,704 41.23% 922 2.04% 7,032 16.40% 45,362
Worth 2,738 61.97% 1,596 36.12% 84 1.91% 1,142 25.85% 4,418
Wright 4,136 66.13% 1,996 31.92% 122 1.95% 2,140 34.21% 6,254
Totals 897,672 53.09% 759,061 44.89% 34,138 2.02% 138,611 8.20% 1,690,871

By congressional district

Trump won all 4 of the state's congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.

District Trump Biden Representative
1st 50.79% 47.38% Abby Finkenauer
Ashley Hinson
2nd 51.10% 47.10% Dave Loebsack
Mariannette Miller-Meeks
3rd 49.15% 49.02% Cindy Axne
4th 62.68% 35.73% Steve King
Randy Feenstra

Analysis

Per exit polling by the Associated Press, Trump's strength in Iowa came from White Iowans with no college degree, who comprised 62% of the electorate and supported Trump by 58%–40%. Trump also dominated amongst Christian voters, garnering 66% of Protestants, 54% of Catholics, and 76% of born-again/Evangelical Christians. 53% of voters believed Trump was better able to handle international trade.[87] Trump continued to win the cultural message among voters without college degrees in Iowa.[88]

During the primary season, there remained hope among Democrats that Iowa would still be a contestable state.[89] However, Trump's well-held victory in the state in the general election also saw Republican congressional candidates—from Senator Joni Ernst to two House seats, both held by Democrats (one vacated by Dave Loebsack in Iowa's 2nd district)—winning their election.

Neither Biden nor Trump flipped any counties in the state, although Biden came within 2% of flipping Dallas County, a suburb of Des Moines. Jefferson County was also very close, having gone for Trump by a similarly tight margin four years earlier.

Biden became the first Democratic nominee since Jimmy Carter in 1976 to win the presidency without carrying Iowa, the first since 1916 to win without carrying Wapello County, as well as the first since FDR in 1940 to win the presidency without carrying Dubuque County and Howard County.

Edison exit polls

2020 presidential election in Iowa by demographic subgroup (Edison exit polling)[90][91]
Demographic subgroup Biden Trump % of

total vote

Total vote 44.89 53.09 100
Ideology
Liberals 90 9 20
Moderates 59 38 41
Conservatives 8 90 39
Party
Democrats 93 7 26
Republicans 7 93 36
Independents 50 46 38
Gender
Men 39 58 48
Women 51 48 52
Race/ethnicity
White 43 55 92
Black 76 22 2
Latino 67 31 4
Asian – – 1
Other – – 2
Age
18–24 years old 58 39 10
25–29 years old 39 55 5
30–39 years old 44 50 13
40–49 years old 50 48 14
50–64 years old 40 60 28
65 and older 45 54 28
Sexual orientation
LGBT – – 4
Not LGBT 44 55 96
Education
High school or less 37 63 19
Some college education 46 53 26
Associate degree 39 59 17
Bachelor's degree 49 48 26
Postgraduate degree 58 39 13
Income
Under $30,000 58 41 15
$30,000–49,999 47 49 23
$50,000–99,999 39 60 35
$100,000–199,999 46 51 22
Over $200,000 – – 5
Issue regarded as most important
Racial inequality 91 8 10
Coronavirus 88 10 19
Economy 10 87 36
Crime and safety 13 86 12
Health care 79 19 13
Region
Eastern Cities 54 44 27
East Central 42 56 19
Des Moines Area 54 44 24
Central 35 64 16
West 31 67 15
Area type
Urban 56 42 32
Suburban 48 51 29
Rural 35 63 39
Family's financial situation today
Better than four years ago 16 82 46
Worse than four years ago 87 10 13
About the same 60 38 41

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Final vote after votes for candidates below the 15% viability threshold in each precinct are reallocated to other viable candidates.
  2. ^ The official results included four decimal digits.
  3. ^ In Iowa, the presidential caucuses only are the first determining step for the delegate distribution, the final step are the decisions on the district conventions and the much later state convention. According to the provisions set by the Iowa Democratic Party's "Delegate Selection Plan", statewide delegates preliminarily awarded to other candidates had to be reallocated at the state convention on June 13, as their pledged candidates had dropped out, while the already early decided district delegates remain fixed.
  4. ^ Due to his withdrawal in March, 2 of the 5 statewide delegates mathematically won by Buttigieg were reallocated to Biden at the state convention on June 13.[12][13]
  5. ^ Due to his withdrawal in April, 3 of the 4 statewide delegates mathematically won by Sanders were reallocated to Biden at the state convention on June 13.[12][13]
  6. ^ Due to her withdrawal in March, all of the 3 statewide delegates mathematically won by Warren were reallocated to Biden at the state convention on June 13.[12][13]
  7. ^ 8 of the 12 statewide delegates initially awarded to Buttigieg (2), Sanders (3) and Warren (3), who had withdrawn in the meantime, were reallocated to Biden as the sole remaining viable contender and were added to his own 2 statewide delegates at the state convention on June 13.[12][13]
  8. ^ Michael Bloomberg officially announced his candidacy for the Democratic nomination on November 24, 2019, but chose not to contest the first four nominating contests of the primary season, including the Iowa caucuses.[14]
  9. ^ Per the Iowa Democratic Party official report.[10]
  10. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  11. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  12. ^ a b c d e f "Someone else" with 2%
  13. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  14. ^ "Don't recall" with 2%
  15. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  16. ^ "Other candidate or write-in" with 1%
  17. ^ a b c d With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  18. ^ "Refused" with 5%; "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
  19. ^ Includes "Do not remember"
  20. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  21. ^ a b c "Someone else" with 4%
  22. ^ a b c Standard VI response
  23. ^ Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  24. ^ Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  25. ^ a b "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  26. ^ a b c Includes "Refused"
  27. ^ No voters
  28. ^ "Another candidate" and "No one" with 1%
  29. ^ a b c With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  30. ^ a b c With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  31. ^ "Other third party" with 2%
  32. ^ "One of the other candidates" with 2%; West (B) with 1%
  33. ^ a b If the only candidates were Biden and Trump
  34. ^ "Other candidate" with 2%
  35. ^ "Another candidate" with 1%; "No one" with no voters
  36. ^ a b "Hawkins/Other" with 2%
  37. ^ Would not vote with 1%
  38. ^ "Other" and "No-one" with <1%
  39. ^ "Other" with <1%
  40. ^ "Other" with 0%
  41. ^ "Someone else" with 9%; would not vote with 1%
  42. ^ "Someone else" with 7%
  43. ^ a b c Other with 2%; would not vote with 3%
  44. ^ a b Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  45. ^ Other with 3%; would not vote with 4%
  46. ^ Other with 1%; would not vote with 3%
  47. ^ Other and would not vote with 2%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b The Center for American Greatness is a pro-Trump organization
  2. ^ a b The American Action Forum is a 501 organisation which usually supports Republican candidates
  3. ^ The Human Rights Campaign endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  4. ^ AFSCME endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  5. ^ This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501(c)(4) organization that supports the Republican Party.
  6. ^ Emily's List is an organisation that supports Democratic female candidates
  7. ^ End Citizens United PAC has exclusively endorsed Democratic candidates

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Further reading