2020 United States Senate election in Kansas

Not to be confused with 2020 Kansas Senate election.

2020 United States Senate election in Kansas
← 2014 November 3, 2020 2026 →
 
Nominee Roger Marshall Barbara Bollier
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 727,962 571,530
Percentage 53.22% 41.79%
Marshall:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Bollier:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%      No data
U.S. senator before election

Pat Roberts
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Roger Marshall
Republican

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The 2020 United States Senate election in Kansas was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Kansas, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

On January 4, 2019, incumbent Republican Senator Pat Roberts announced he would not run for a fifth term.[1] Candidates had until June 1, 2020 to file to run for the open seat or to drop out if they already filed.[2] The U.S. Senate primaries were held on August 4, 2020.[3][4]

Republican U.S. Representative Roger Marshall was considered a narrow favorite based on polling, but he won by around 11 points, a larger margin than most experts predicted. However, this was the first Senate election since 1978 where a Democrat won Shawnee County, the first Senate election since 1974 where a Democrat won Riley County, and the first Senate election ever in Kansas's history where a Democrat won Johnson County; all three counties were also flipped by Democrat Joe Biden in the concurrent presidential election.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Primary debate

In a live-streamed debate on May 22, 2020, in a ballroom devoid of spectators due to the COVID-19 pandemic, all five major candidates praised president Donald Trump. Kobach took on his opponents who all agreed that he could not win the general election against presumptive Democratic nominee, Bollier.[37] Marshall said, "We cannot afford to send a failed candidate back this fall who will lose to Barbara Bollier and hand the Senate majority over to Chuck Schumer." "Instead, we need to send a tried and trusted friend of President Trump." Referring to Marshall, Kobach replied, "Do you want a go-along-to-get-along kind of senator, a gutless wonder who never takes a stand, or, do you want someone who poses a threat?" Hamilton said voters didn't have to choose between Kobach, who couldn't win, and a moderate Marshall,[37] in whose behest the state party leaders had urged Senator Wagle and Lindstrom, to drop out of the race.[37] Objecting to the party pressure, Lindstrom characterized his opponents as "shortsighted, self-serving ... career politicians who are divisive, controversial," and, "have a record of losing elections."[37] Wagle touted her own candidacy, saying, "It's very, very important that we send a leader to the U.S. Senate who is articulate, who is persuasive, who other people respect. ... I'm the one who's already debated Barbara Bollier. ... I win on the Senate floor. I've beat (sic) her numerous times ... the conservative voice that can beat that liberal voice in the U.S. Senate," she said.[37] In response to a claim that he would not prioritize the issue of agriculture, Marshall said, "Fake news and another lie by Kris Kobach."[37]

Endorsements

Kris Kobach

Organizations

Individuals

Roger Marshall

Federal officials

Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Bob
Hamilton 		Kris
Kobach 		Dave
Lindstrom 		Roger
Marshall 		Susan
Wagle 		Other Undecided
Civiqs/Daily Kos[55] May 30 – June 1, 2020 419 (LV) – 15% 35% 4% 26% – 4%[b] 16%
May 28, 2020 Wagle withdraws from the race
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[56][A] May 10–12, 2020 600 (V) ±  4% 6% 26% 4% 33% 7% – 24%
March 30, 2020 Hamilton announces his candidacy
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[57][B] February 12–16, 2020 300 (LV) ± 5.6% 2% 40% 5% 23% 8% – 21%
co/efficient (R)[58] January 19–20, 2020 1,246 LV ± 3.2% – 29% – 29% 6% 9%[c] 28%
The Tarrance Group (R)[59][C] October 21–23, 2019 607 (LV) ± 4.1% – 43% 3% 24% 8% 5%[d] 16%
Hypothetical polling

with only Kris Kobach and Roger Marshall

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kris Kobach Roger Marshall
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[60][A] May 10–12, 2020 600 (V) ± 4% 34% 48%

with only Bob Hamilton, Kris Kobach and Roger Marshall

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Bob Hamilton Kris Kobach Roger Marshall
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[60][A] May 10–12, 2020 600 (V) ± 4% 10% 29% 41%

with Mike Pompeo and Susan Wagle

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kris Kobach Roger Marshall Mike Pompeo Other Undecided
NRSC[61][C] October 21–23, 2019 607 (LV) ± 4.1% 17% 11% 54% 7%[e] 10%

with only Kris Kobach and Mike Pompeo

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kris Kobach Mike Pompeo
NRSC[61][C] October 21–23, 2019 607 (LV) ± 4.1% 24% 68%

Results

Primary results by county
  Marshall
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Kobach
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Hamilton
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
Republican primary results[62]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Roger Marshall 167,800 40.28%
Republican Kris Kobach 108,726 26.10%
Republican Bob Hamilton 77,952 18.71%
Republican Dave Lindstrom 27,451 6.59%
Republican Steve Roberts 8,141 1.95%
Republican Brian Matlock 7,083 1.70%
Republican Lance Berland 6,404 1.54%
Republican John Miller 4,431 1.06%
Republican Derek Ellis 3,970 0.95%
Republican Gabriel Robles 3,744 0.90%
Republican John Berman 861 0.21%
Total votes 416,563 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Barbara Bollier

U.S. Senators

Federal officials

State politicians

Former U.S. Executive Branch officials

State legislators

Organizations

Results

Primary results by county
  Bollier
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
  Tillman
  •   50–60%
Democratic primary results[62]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Barbara Bollier 168,759 85.34%
Democratic Robert Tillman 28,997 14.66%
Total votes 197,756 100.00%

Other candidates

Libertarian Party

Nominee

  • Jason Buckley, U.S. Navy veteran[90]

Independents

Withdrawn

General election

Endorsements

Roger Marshall (R)

Federal officials

Organizations

Barbara Bollier (D)

Federal officials

State and local officials

Former U.S. executive branch officials

Organizations

Unions

Newspapers and publications

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[108] Lean R October 29, 2020
Inside Elections[109] Tilt R October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[110] Lean R November 2, 2020
Daily Kos[111] Lean R October 30, 2020
Politico[112] Lean R November 2, 2020
RCP[113] Lean R October 23, 2020
DDHQ[114] Lean R November 3, 2020
538[115] Likely R November 2, 2020
Economist[116] Lean R November 2, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Roger
Marshall (R) 		Barbara
Bollier (D) 		Jason
Buckley (L) 		Other Undecided
Data For Progress[117] October 27 – November 1, 2020 1,121 (LV) ± 2.9% 51% 45% 4% 1%[f] –
VCreek/AMG[118] October 25–27, 2020 1,149 (LV) ± 3.8% 47% 43% 2% – 8%
GBAO Strategies (D)[119][g][D] October 25–27, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 45%[h] 46% 4% 4%[i] –
47%[j] 47% – – –
Public Policy Polling (D)[120][E] October 19–20, 2020 897 (V) ± 3.3% 43% 43% 5% – 9%
Siena College/NYT Upshot[121] October 18–20, 2020 755 (LV) ± 4% 46% 42% 4% 2%[k] 6%[l]
co/efficient (R)[122][F] October 18–20, 2020 2,453 (LV) ± 3.7% 51% 39% 2% – 8%
VCreek/AMG (R)[123] September 29–30, 2020 3,104 (LV) ± 1.75% 42% 45% 2% – 11%
Civiqs/Daily Kos[124] September 26–29, 2020 677 (LV) ± 4.5% 50% 43% – 2%[m] 5%
GBAO Strategies (D)[125][D] September 24–27, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 43% 45% 7% – –
Data For Progress (D)[126] September 14–19, 2020 883 (LV) ± 3.3% 40%[h] 40% 5% – 15%
42%[j] 42% – – 15%
co/efficient (R)[127][F] September 15–16, 2020 794 (LV) ± 3.5% 43% 39% 2% – 16%
SurveyUSA[128] August 8–9, 2020 1,202 (LV) ± 3.3% 46% 44% – – 10%
Public Policy Polling (D)[129][G] August 5–6, 2020 864 (V) ± 3.3% 43% 42% – – 15%
Civiqs/Daily Kos[55] May 30 – June 1, 2020 699 (RV) ± 4.2% 42% 41% – 9%[c] 8%
NMB Research (R)[130][A] May 17–19, 2020 506 (LV) ± 4.5% 46% 35% – – 18%
Public Policy Polling[131] March 10–11, 2020 1,567 (V) ± 2.5% 47% 37% – – –
Hypothetical polling

Bob Hamilton vs. Barbara Bollier

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Bob
Hamilton (R) 		Barbara
Bollier (D) 		Other Undecided
Civiqs/Daily Kos[55] May 30 – June 1, 2020 699 (RV) ± 4.2% 40% 41% 11%[n] 8%

Kris Kobach vs. Barbara Bollier

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kris
Kobach (R) 		Barbara
Bollier (D) 		Other Undecided
Civiqs/Daily Kos[55] May 30 – June 1, 2020 699 (RV) ± 4.2% 41% 42% 11%[n] 7%
NMB Research/NRSC (R)[132][C] May 17–19, 2020 506 (LV) ± 4.5% 44% 43% – 12%
Public Policy Polling (D)[133][H] April 13–14, 2020 1,271 (RV) ± 2.7% 42% 44% – 13%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[134][B] February 12–13, 2020 300 (LV) ± 5.6% 47% 38% – 15%
DFM Research[135][I] January 30 – February 6, 2020 600 (A) ± 4.0% 43% 43% 4% 10%

Kris Kobach vs. Barry Grissom

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kris
Kobach (R) 		Barry
Grissom (D) 		Undecided
Tarrance Group/NRSC (R)[136][C] June 9–11, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4% 42%[o] 52% –

Generic Republican vs. Generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Generic
Republican (R) 		Generic
Democrat (D) 		Undecided
co/efficient/Keep Kansas Great PAC[137][J] September 15–16, 2020 794 (LV) ± 3.5% 53% 39% –
Public Policy Polling (D)[133][H] April 13–14, 2020 1,271 (RV) ± 2.7% 50% 40% 11%
DFM Research/SMART Transportation Division[138][I] January 30 – February 6, 2020 600 (A) ± 4.0% 39% 31% 30%
Tarrance Group/NRSC (R)[136][C] June 9–11, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 36% –

Results

On the night of the election, Roger Marshall was announced as the winner of the Senate race.[139]

United States Senate election in Kansas, 2020[140]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Roger Marshall 727,962 53.22% +0.07%
Democratic Barbara Bollier 571,530 41.79% N/A
Libertarian Jason Buckley 68,263 4.99% +0.67%
Total votes 1,367,755 100.0%
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Independent to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Marshall won 3 of 4 congressional districts.[141]

District Marshall Bollier Representative
1st 66% 29% Roger Marshall
Tracey Mann
2nd 52% 42% Steve Watkins
Jake LaTurner
3rd 42% 53% Sharice Davids
4th 56% 39% Ron Estes

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ "someone else" with 4%
  3. ^ a b "Someone else" with 9%
  4. ^ Hartman with 5%
  5. ^ Wagle with 4%; Hartman with 2%; Lindstrom with 1%
  6. ^ "Other candidate/write-in" with 1%
  7. ^ Archived November 2, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  8. ^ a b Standard VI response
  9. ^ Includes Undecided
  10. ^ a b If Bollier and Marshall were the only candidates
  11. ^ "Someone else" and would not vote with 1%
  12. ^ Includes "Refused"
  13. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  14. ^ a b "Someone else" with 11%
  15. ^ Figures for other Republicans tested against Grissom in this poll have not been released, but all others led him by at least 8%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c d Poll conducted for the Marshall campaign.
  2. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by Kris Kobach's campaign
  3. ^ a b c d e f This poll was conducted by the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
  4. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Bollier's campaign.
  5. ^ Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organization.
  6. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Keep Kansas Great PAC, which has endorsed Marshall prior to this poll's sampling period.
  7. ^ Poll for EMILY's List, a Democratic PAC which seeks to elect pro-choice Democratic women to office
  8. ^ a b Poll sponsored by 314 Action
  9. ^ a b The SMART Transportation Division is an AFL-CIO affiliated PAC promoting employee assistance programs for retired railroad, bus, and mass transit workers
  10. ^ Keep Kansas Great PAC endorsed Marshall prior to this poll's sampling period

See also

References

  1. ^ a b "The Latest: GOP Sen. Roberts of Kansas won't run in 2020". AP NEWS. January 4, 2019. Retrieved January 4, 2019.
  2. ^ "United States Senate election in Kansas, 2020". Ballotpedia.
  3. ^ "United States Senate election in Kansas, 2020 (August 4 Republican primary)". Ballotpedia.
  4. ^ "United States Senate election in Kansas, 2020 (August 4 Democratic primary)". Ballotpedia.
  5. ^ Brufke, Julie Grace (September 7, 2019). "Rep. Roger Marshall launches Kansas Senate bid". The Hill. Retrieved September 7, 2019.
  6. ^ a b c d e f g h "Candidate Lists". Kansas Secretary of State. July 14, 2020. Retrieved July 15, 2020.
  7. ^ "John Berman – Republican for U.S. Senate". KSN-TV. July 15, 2020. Archived from the original on September 11, 2021. Retrieved September 11, 2021.
  8. ^ "Derek Ellis – Republican for U.S. Senate". KSN-TV. July 15, 2020. Archived from the original on September 11, 2021. Retrieved September 11, 2021.
  9. ^ "Kansas Businessman Enters GOP Senate Primary". U.S. News & World Report. Associated Press. March 30, 2020. Retrieved March 31, 2020.
  10. ^ Arkin, James (July 8, 2019). "Republicans torch Kobach for Senate run". Politico. Retrieved August 8, 2019.
  11. ^ Hanna, John (June 27, 2019). "Ex-Chiefs player, businessman runs for US Senate in Kansas". Associated Press. Retrieved June 27, 2019.
  12. ^ Riley, Jonathan (December 18, 2019). "Meet Brian Matlock, Republican Socialist". The Morning Sun. Retrieved December 20, 2019.
  13. ^ Steve Roberts files for U.S. Senate to replace Pat Roberts, Capital Journal, Tim Carpenter, November 12, 2020. Retrieved November 13, 2020.
  14. ^ Wise, Lindsay (September 4, 2019). "In Kansas GOP Fight, Jake LaTurner Leaves Senate Race to Challenge Incumbent Rep. Steve Watkins". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved September 4, 2019.
  15. ^ "GOP commentator drops US Senate bid to run for Kansas Senate". San Francisco Chronicle. January 24, 2020. Archived from the original on January 24, 2020. Retrieved January 24, 2020.
  16. ^ Lowry, Bryan (July 23, 2019). "Susan Wagle, GOP leader of Kansas Senate, launches bid to replace Pat Roberts in 2020". The Wichita Eagle. Retrieved July 23, 2019.
  17. ^ "SUSAN WAGLE SAYS SHE WON'T RUN FOR U.S. SENATE SEAT". Classic Country AM 1070. May 28, 2020. Retrieved May 30, 2020.
  18. ^ a b Carpenter, Tim (October 10, 2019). "Democrat Nancy Boyda quits U.S. Senate campaign, GOP's Alan Cobb to skip race". The Garden City Telegram. Archived from the original on October 11, 2019. Retrieved October 10, 2019.
  19. ^ a b c "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 1/4". Daily Kos. Retrieved January 5, 2019.
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  24. ^ Marshall, Roger [@RogerMarshallMD] (February 25, 2020). "I couldn't be prouder to have @DrJeffColyer on our team. He knows the importance of this race & why it's critical that we nominate a Republican who can win in November. https://t.co/OgjToUhlJ3 #kssen #ksleg" (Tweet). Archived from the original on March 6, 2021. Retrieved March 19, 2022 – via Twitter.
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  27. ^ Samuels, Brett (December 30, 2019). "Pompeo: Running for Senate 'not something I want to do'". The Hill.
  28. ^ Haberman, Maggie (January 6, 2020). "Pompeo: Pompeo not Running for Senate in Kansas '". The New York Times.
  29. ^ Zeleny, Jeff; Hansler, Jennifer; Rogers, Alex (January 6, 2020). "Pompeo tells McConnell he won't run for the Senate". CNN. Retrieved January 7, 2020.
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  32. ^ Roberts, Pat [@PatRoberts] (July 21, 2020). "Today, I marked my advance ballot for Roger Marshall" (Tweet). Archived from the original on March 6, 2021. Retrieved March 19, 2022 – via Twitter.
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  56. ^ Public Opinion Strategies (R)
  57. ^ McLaughlin & Associates (R)
  58. ^ co/efficient (R)
  59. ^ The Tarrance Group (R)
  60. ^ a b Public Opinion Strategies (R)
  61. ^ a b NRSC
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  74. ^ Kraske, Steve (August 23, 2018). "Rising Democratic star Josh Svaty: Abortion stance sank my bid for Kansas governor". McClatchyDC. Retrieved January 7, 2019. Svaty is done with politics. No U.S. Senate race in 2020.
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  76. ^ a b Lowry, Bryan (November 19, 2019). "Chuck Schumer will help Bollier raise money for Kansas Senate race in D.C."
  77. ^ a b "Former Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius endorses Barbara Bollier for Senate". kshb. October 21, 2019. Retrieved October 21, 2019.
  78. ^ a b "Barry Grissom withdraws from US Senate race, endorses Barbara Bollier". kwch.com. October 17, 2019. Retrieved October 17, 2019.
  79. ^ a b Kinnard, Meg (May 21, 2020). "Stacey Abrams endorses candidates in 7 US Senate contests". Associated Press.
  80. ^ a b c d "Bollier Scores Big Endorsements in Race for Kansas Senate Seat". Wall Street Journal. October 31, 2019.
  81. ^ a b "End Citizens United and Let America Vote Endorse Barbara Bollier for Senate in Kansas". Let America Vote. May 1, 2020.
  82. ^ a b "2020 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org.
  83. ^ a b "Giffords Endorses Dr. Barbara Bollier for Senate in Kansas". Giffords. April 16, 2020.
  84. ^ a b "Human Rights Campaign Endorses 40 House, 5 Senate Pro-Equality Leaders". Human Rights Campaign. May 18, 2020.
  85. ^ a b Rich, Aliyah (February 12, 2020). "LCV Action Fund Endorses Barbara Bollier for U.S. Senate". League of Conservation Voters.
  86. ^ a b "NARAL Pro-Choice America Endorses Barbara Bollier for U.S. Senate". NARAL Pro-Choice America. February 20, 2020.
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Further reading

Official campaign websites