美联储允许一些大型对公银行倒闭——特别是美国纽约银行(New York Bank of the United States)的倒闭——导致恐慌和地方银行的大規模挤兑。而在此期间,美联储竟然呆坐在一旁隔岸观火。他认为,如果美联储提供应急借贷,或是简单地在自由市场上购买政府债券以提供流动资产,在主要银行倒台后增加货币供给,那么其它银行就不会跟着大型银行一同倒闭,这样货币供给就不会紧张到如此的地步。[24]由于货币极端稀缺,商人拿不到新贷款,也不能为旧贷款延期,导致许多投资停滞。这样的解释将责任归咎于美联储的不作为,特别是在纽约分行问题上。[25]
新古典学派的最近研究着重于生产力的衰退所导致的出产下滑,以及政策对劳动力市场所带来的持久影响。吉欧(Timothy J. Kehoe)和普莱斯考特(Prescott)在研究中[27]将经济衰退分解为劳动力、股本的衰退,以及使用前者的生产力的下滑。这项研究认为大萧条的理论必须解释生产力在最初急剧的衰退和之后的迅速恢复,前者与股本之间微弱的关联,以及劳动力市场长时间的低迷。这项分析否定了存贷的作用,提出了股本衰退的假设。
奥地利学派
另一种解释来自奥地利经济学派。它对大萧条的经济理论包括奥地利经济学家弗里德里希·哈耶克和美国经济学家穆瑞·罗斯巴德,后者于1963年著书《美国大萧条》(America's Great Depression)。他们的观点与货币主义者类似,认为诞生于1913年的美联储应承担主要责任;但是,与货币主义不同,他称大萧条的主要原因在于二十世纪20年代货币供给的大量扩充,导致信用驱动膨胀的不稳定。[28]这和货币主义者的观点完全相反。
1929年10月29日的美國股灾在黑色星期二开始。[10]這一天,股票一夜之間從頂巔跌入深淵,價格下跌之快連股票行情自動顯示器都跟不上。在大萧条中,當時的紐約流行一首兒歌:「梅隆拉汽笛,胡佛敲大鐘。華爾街發出信號,美國往地狱里冲。」(Mellon pulled the whistle, Hoover rang the bell, Wall Street gave the signal and the country went to hell.)可怕的連鎖反應很快發生:瘋狂擠兌、銀行倒閉、工廠關門、工人失業、貧困來臨、有組織的抵抗內戰邊緣等等。
^ 17.017.117.2Fisher, Irving. The Debt-Deflation Theory of Great Depressions. Econometrica (The Econometric Society). October 1933, 1 (4): 337–357. JSTOR 1907327. doi:10.2307/1907327.
^For Hayek's view, see Diego Pizano, Conversations with Great Economists: Friedrich A. Hayek, John Hicks, Nicholas Kaldor, Leonid V. Kantorovich, Joan Robinson, Paul A.Samuelson, Jan Tinbergen(Jorge Pinto Books, 2009). For Rothbard's view, see Murray Rothbard, A History of Money and Banking in the United States(Ludwig von Mises Institute), pp. 293–294.
^"The Mistake of 1937: A General Equilibrium Analysis," Monetary and Economic Studies 24, No. S-1(Dec 2006), Boj.or.jp (页面存档备份,存于互联网档案馆)
^Gauti B. Eggertsson, "A Reply to Steven Horwitz's Commentary on 'Great Expectations and the End of the Great Depression,'" Econ Journal Watch 7(3), 197–204, September 2010 [1] (页面存档备份,存于互联网档案馆)
^Steven Horwitz, "Unfortunately Unfamiliar with Robert Higgs and Others: A Rejoinder to Gauti Eggertsson on the 1930s," Econ Journal Watch 8(1), 2, January 2011. [2] (页面存档备份,存于互联网档案馆)
^Romer, Christina D., "What Ended the Great Depression", Journal of Economic History, December 1992, vol. 52, no. 4, pp. 757–784 存档副本(PDF). [2013-01-08]. (原始内容(PDF)存档于2013-01-17)."monetary development were crucial to the recovery implies that self-correction played little role in the growth of real output"
^Ben Bernanke. Essays on the Great Depression. Princeton University Press. ISBN 978-0-691-01698-6. p. 7
^Ben S. Bernanke, "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propaga-tion of the Great Depression," The American Economic Review 73, No. 3(Jun 1983): 257–76, available from the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank collection at Stlouisfed.org (页面存档备份,存于互联网档案馆)
^Eggertson, Gauti. "A Reply to Steven Horwitz's Commentary on "Great Expectations and the End of the Depression". Econ Journal Watch 7(3): pp 197–204. [3] (页面存档备份,存于互联网档案馆)
^Romer, Christina D.What Ended the Great Depression?. Journal of Economic History. 1992, 52 (4): 757–784. doi:10.1017/S002205070001189X. fiscal policy was of little consequence even as late as 1942, suggests an interesting twist on the usual view that World War II caused, or at least accelerated, the recovery from the Great Depression.
^Myung Soo Cha, "Did Takahashi Korekiyo Rescue Japan from the Great Depression?", The Journal of Economic History 63, No. 1(Mar 2003): 127–44.
^(For more on the Japanese economy in the 1930s see "MITI and the Japanese Miracle" by Chalmers Johnson)
^Schlesinger, Jr., Arthur M. The Coming of the New Deal: 1933–1935. Paperback ed. New York: Houghton Mifflin, 2003.(First published in 1958)ISBN 978-0-618-34086-6; Schlesinger, Jr., Arthur M. The Politics of Upheaval: 1935–1936. Paperback ed. New York: Houghton Mifflin, 2003.(First published in 1960)ISBN 978-0-618-34087-3
^Lanny Ebenstein, Milton Friedman: A Biography(2007)
延伸閱讀
Ambrosius, G. and W. Hibbard, 二十世紀的歐洲社會和經濟的歷史(1989)
Gernot Kohler and Emilio José Chaves (Editors) "全球化:批判的觀點" Hauppauge, New York: Nova Science Publishers(页面存档备份,存于互联网档案馆) ISBN 978-1-59033-346-4. With contributions by Samir Amin, Christopher Chase Dunn, Andre Gunder Frank, Immanuel Wallerstein
League of Nations, 1932-33世界經濟調查(1934)
Madsen, Jakob B. "在大蕭條期間的貿易壁壘和世界貿易的崩潰", 南方經濟日報, Southern Economic Journal 2001, 67 (4), 848–868 online at JSTOR.(页面存档备份,存于互联网档案馆)
Donald Markwell, 約翰·梅納德·凱恩斯與國際關係:“戰爭與和平”的經濟路徑, Oxford University Press (2006).
Mitchell, Broadus. 經濟大蕭條時期:從新紀元的新政(1929-1941)(1947), 462pp; thorough coverage of the U.S.. economy
Mundell, R. A. "二十世紀的再思考", 美國經濟評論Vol. 90, No. 3(Jun., 2000), pp. 327–340 online version
Rothermund, Dietmar. 全球經濟大蕭條的影響(1996)
Tausch, Arno, with Christian Ghymers. "從“華盛頓”向“維也納共識"?全球化,發展和全球治理的定量分析". Hauppauge, N.Y.: Nova Science Publishers, 2007.
Tausch, Arno and Almas Heshmati(Eds.)"班加羅爾的路線圖?全球化,歐盟的里斯本進程和全球不平等的結構" Hauppauge, N.Y.: Nova Science Publishers, 2008, with contributions by Franco Modigliani et al..
Taylor, David A. 靈魂的人物:WPA作家的項目揭示美國大蕭條. Hoboken, N.J.: Wiley & Sons, 2009.
Tipton, F. and R. Aldrich, 歐洲的經濟和社會史,1890-1939(1987)
The 1930s Timeline, year by year timeline of events in science and technology, politics and society, culture and international events with embedded audio and video. AS@UVA
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