2022 United States Senate election in New Hampshire

2022 United States Senate election in New Hampshire
← 2016 November 8, 2022 2028 →
 
Nominee Maggie Hassan Don Bolduc
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 332,490 275,631
Percentage 53.54% 44.39%
Hassan:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Bolduc:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
     No votes
U.S. senator before election

Maggie Hassan
Democratic

Elected U.S. senator

Maggie Hassan
Democratic

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The 2022 United States Senate election in New Hampshire was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of New Hampshire.[1] The primary elections were held on September 13, 2022.[2] Incumbent Senator Maggie Hassan was re-elected over Republican retired brigadier general Don Bolduc by an unexpectedly large margin of 9.1% that surpassed most polls. Hassan won her initial bid for this seat in 2016 by only 1,017 votes or 0.14%.[3] This election marked the first time a Democrat won re-election to New Hampshire's class 3 Senate seat.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Paul Krautmann, dentist and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020[5]
  • John Riggieri[5]

Endorsements

Maggie Hassan

U.S. executive branch officials

Organizations

Democratic Primary results by Municipality :

Results

Voters at a polling location in Londonderry
Democratic primary results[26]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Maggie Hassan (incumbent) 88,146 93.77%
Democratic Paul Krautmann 3,629 3.86%
Democratic John Riggieri 1,680 1.79%
Write-in 546 0.58%
Total votes 94,001 100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Don Bolduc

U.S. executive branch officials

U.S. senators

Chuck Morse

State officials

State legislators

  • Jess Edwards, state representative[47]
  • J. P. Marzullo, former state representative[48]
  • Frank McCarthy, former state representative[49]

Local officials

Individuals

Organizations

Newspapers

Kevin Smith

State officials

U.S. representatives

Organizations

Debates

2022 Republican primary debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Participants
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee  W  Withdrawn
Don Bolduc Kevin Smith Chuck Morse Vikram Mansharamani Bruce Fenton
1 June 27, 2022 NH Journal Michael Graham
Alicia Xanthopolous
Haris Alic 		Link[60] P P P P P
2[61] August 16, 2022 Good Morning New Hampshire Jack Heath N/A P P P P P
3[citation needed] August 24, 2022 Newsmax John Bachmann P P P N P
4 September 8, 2022 New Hampshire Institute of Politics
WMUR 		[62] P P P P P

Polling

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Don
Bolduc 		Bruce
Fenton 		Vikram
Mansharamani 		Chuck
Morse 		Kevin
Smith 		Other
[b] 		Margin
Real Clear Politics[63] August 9–29, 2022 August 31, 2022 37.5% 4.5% 3.5% 19.0% 3.5% 32.0% Bolduc +18.5
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Don
Bolduc 		Bruce
Fenton 		Vikram
Mansharamani 		Chuck
Morse 		Kevin
Smith 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[64] September 7–8, 2022 559 (LV) – 33% 4% 6% 23% 9% – 25%
University of New Hampshire[65] August 25–29, 2022 892 (LV) ± 3.3% 43% 5% 5% 22% 3% 2% 20%
Saint Anselm College[66] August 9–11, 2022 820 (RV) ± 3.4% 32% 4% 2% 16% 4% 2% 39%
University of New Hampshire[67] April 14–18, 2022 315 (LV) ± 5.5% 33% 1% – 2% 4% 1% 58%

Results

Results by county
  Bolduc
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Morse
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
Republican primary results[68]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Don Bolduc 52,629 36.91%
Republican Chuck Morse 50,929 35.71%
Republican Kevin H. Smith 16,621 11.65%
Republican Vikram Mansharamani 10,690 7.50%
Republican Bruce Fenton 6,381 4.47%
Republican John Berman 961 0.67%
Republican Andy Martin 920 0.64%
Republican Tejasinha Sivalingam 832 0.58%
Republican Dennis Lamare 773 0.54%
Republican Edward Laplante 723 0.51%
Republican Gerard Beloin 521 0.36%
Democratic Maggie Hassan (incumbent) (write-in) 316 0.22%
Write-in 307 0.21%
Total votes 142,603 100.0%

Libertarian convention

Jeremy Kauffman, the Libertarian nominee

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated at convention

Independents

Candidates

  • Tejasinha Sivalingam, (write-in)[71]

Did not qualify

  • Steve Hattamer, physician[72]
  • Geoff Woollacott, businessman[31]

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[73] Lean D August 18, 2022
Inside Elections[74] Tilt D July 1, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[75] Lean D August 31, 2022
Politico[76] Tossup November 3, 2022
RCP[77] Tossup January 10, 2022
Fox News[78] Lean D September 20, 2022
DDHQ[79] Lean D October 24, 2022
538[80] Lean D November 1, 2022
The Economist[81] Lean D November 1, 2022

Endorsements

Maggie Hassan (D)

U.S. executive branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Individuals

Labor unions

Newspapers

Organizations

Don Bolduc (R)

U.S. executive branch officials

State officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Organizations

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Maggie
Hassan (D) 		Don
Bolduc (R) 		Other
[d] 		Margin
Real Clear Politics[106] October 28 – November 1, 2022 November 8, 2022 48.7% 47.3% 4.0% Hassan +1.4
FiveThirtyEight[107] September 23 – November 5, 2022 November 8, 2022 48.8% 46.6% 4.6% Hassan +2.2
270towin[108] October 27 – November 4, 2022 November 8, 2022 49.2% 46.0% 4.8% Hassan +3.2
Average 48.9% 46.6% 4.5% Hassan +2.3
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Maggie
Hassan (D) 		Don
Bolduc (R) 		Other Undecided
Phillips Academy[109] November 5–6, 2022 1,056 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 45% 2%[e] 6%
University of New Hampshire[110] November 2–6, 2022 2,077 (LV) ± 2.2% 50% 48% 1%[f] <1%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[111][A] November 5, 2022 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 49% 48% 1%[g] 2%
Data for Progress (D)[112] November 2–5, 2022 1,995 (LV) ± 2.0% 50% 47% 2%[h] –
Wick Insights (R)[113] November 2–5, 2022 725 (LV) ± 3.6% 48% 48% 2%[i] 1%
Emerson College[114] October 30 – November 1, 2022 850 (LV) ± 3.3% 49% 45% 3%[j] 3%
50% 46% 5%[k] –
The Trafalgar Group (R)[115] October 30 – November 1, 2022 1,241 (LV) ± 2.9% 46% 47% 4%[l] 3%
Saint Anselm College[116] October 28–29, 2022 1,541 (LV) ± 2.5% 47% 48% 2%[m] 3%
co/efficient (R)[117] October 25–26, 2022 1,098 (LV) ± 3.2% 45% 45% 3%[n] 7%
UMass Lowell/YouGov[118] October 14–25, 2022 600 (LV) ± 5.1% 51% 41% 3%[o] 5%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[119][A] October 23, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 47% 3%[p] 3%
Emerson College[120] October 18–19, 2022 727 (LV) ± 3.6% 48% 45% 3%[q] 4%
50% 45% 5%[r] –
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[121][B] October 17–19, 2022 600 (LV) – 49% 47% – 4%
Data for Progress (D)[122] October 14–19, 2022 1,392 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 44% 3%[s] 4%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[123][C] October 2–6, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 52% 45% 2% 1%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[124] September 26–30, 2022 1,081 (LV) ± 2.9% 48% 45% 4%[t] 3%
Data for Progress (D)[125] September 23–30, 2022 1,147 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 43% 3%[u] 4%
Saint Anselm College[126] September 27–28, 2022 901 (RV) ± 3.3% 49% 43% 4%[v] 4%
Suffolk University[127] September 23–26, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 50% 41% 3%[w] 7%
American Research Group[128] September 15–19, 2022 555 (RV) ± 4.2% 53% 40% – 7%
University of New Hampshire[129] September 15–19, 2022 870 (LV) ± 3.3% 49% 41% 5%[x] 5%
Emerson College[130] September 14–15, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.4% 51% 40% 4% 5%
Data for Progress (D)[131][y] June 22 – July 8, 2022 903 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 45% – 6%
Change Research (D)[132][D] June 24–27, 2022 704 (LV) ± 3.7% 49% 40% – 11%
University of New Hampshire[67] April 14–18, 2022 868 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 46% 1% 6%
Phillips Academy[133] April 4–8, 2022 533 (A) ± 4.2% 45% 40% – 15%
471 (RV) ± 4.5% 54% 39% – 7%
Saint Anselm College[134] March 23–24, 2022 1,265 (RV) ± 2.8% 44% 39% 7% 10%
Saint Anselm College[135] January 11–12, 2022 1,215 (RV) ± 2.8% 43% 36% 10% 12%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[136] December 10–12, 2021 1,041 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 40% – 14%
University of New Hampshire[137] October 14–18, 2021 979 (LV) ± 3.1% 47% 42% 6% 6%
University of New Hampshire[138] July 15–19, 2021 1,540 (LV) ± 2.5% 51% 41% 1% 6%
University of New Hampshire[139] February 18–22, 2021 1,676 (LV) ± 2.4% 52% 39% 2% 7%
Hypothetical polling

Maggie Hassan vs. Kelly Ayotte

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Maggie
Hassan (D) 		Kelly
Ayotte (R) 		Other Undecided
University of New Hampshire[137] October 14–18, 2021 979 (LV) ± 3.1% 44% 43% 7% 5%
University of New Hampshire[138] July 15–19, 2021 1,540 (LV) ± 2.5% 49% 45% 3% 3%
University of New Hampshire[139] February 18–22, 2021 1,676 (LV) ± 2.4% 48% 43% 3% 6%

Maggie Hassan vs. Bruce Fenton

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Maggie
Hassan (D) 		Bruce
Fenton (R) 		Other Undecided
University of New Hampshire[67] April 14–18, 2022 868 (LV) ± 3.5% 46% 40% 0% 14%

Maggie Hassan vs. Chuck Morse
Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Maggie
Hassan (D) 		Chuck
Morse (R) 		Other
[z] 		Margin
Real Clear Politics[140] December 10, 2021 – April 18, 2022 April 21, 2022 44.3% 40.0% 15.7% Hassan +4.3
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Maggie
Hassan (D) 		Chuck
Morse (R) 		Other Undecided
Data for Progress (D)[141] June 22 – July 8, 2022 903 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 46% – 5%
University of New Hampshire[67] April 14–18, 2022 868 (LV) ± 3.5% 44% 46% 1% 9%
Phillips Academy[133] April 4–8, 2022 533 (A) ± 4.2% 43% 40% – 17%
471 (RV) ± 4.5% 51% 45% – 6%
Saint Anselm College[134] March 23–24, 2022 1,265 (RV) ± 2.8% 43% 36% 10% 11%
Saint Anselm College[135] January 11–12, 2022 1,215 (RV) ± 2.8% 41% 27% 17% 15%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[136] December 10–12, 2021 1,041 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 38% – 16%

Maggie Hassan vs. Corey Lewandowski

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Maggie
Hassan (D) 		Corey
Lewandowski (R) 		Other Undecided
University of New Hampshire[139] February 18–22, 2021 1,676 (LV) ± 2.4% 53% 34% 3% 9%

Maggie Hassan vs. Corky Messner

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Maggie
Hassan (D) 		Corky
Messner (R) 		Undecided
The Tarrance Group (R)[142][E] November 16–18, 2021 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 47% 45% 8%

Maggie Hassan vs. Kevin Smith

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Maggie
Hassan (D) 		Kevin
Smith (R) 		Other Undecided
Data for Progress (D)[143] June 22 – July 8, 2022 903 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 45% – 6%
University of New Hampshire[67] April 14–18, 2022 868 (LV) ± 3.5% 45% 44% 1% 10%
Saint Anselm College[134] March 23–24, 2022 1,265 (RV) ± 2.8% 44% 34% 10% 12%
Saint Anselm College[135] January 11–12, 2022 1,215 (RV) ± 2.8% 42% 24% 17% 17%

Maggie Hassan vs. Chris Sununu

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Maggie
Hassan (D) 		Chris
Sununu (R) 		Other Undecided
Saint Anselm College[144] October 20–22, 2021 1,323 (RV) ± 2.7% 41% 46% 9% 4%
University of New Hampshire[137] October 14–18, 2021 979 (LV) ± 3.1% 42% 45% 6% 6%
Saint Anselm College[145] August 24–26, 2021 1,855 (RV) ± 2.3% 41% 49% 6% 4%
University of New Hampshire[138] July 15–19, 2021 1,540 (LV) ± 2.5% 48% 49% 1% 2%
Saint Anselm College[146] March 4–6, 2021 871 (RV) ± 3.3% 41% 47% 7% 6%
University of New Hampshire[139] February 18–22, 2021 1,676 (LV) ± 2.4% 46% 48% 2% 5%

Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Generic
Democrat 		Generic
Republican 		Other Undecided
Fabrizio Ward (R)[147][B] October 17–19, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 47% – 4%
Phillips Academy[133] April 4–8, 2022 533 (A) ± 4.2% 32% 46% – 22%
471 (RV) ± 4.5% 36% 48% – 16%
The Tarrance Group (R)[142][E] November 16–18, 2021 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 42% 45% – 13%

on if Maggie Hassan should be re-elected

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Yes No Undecided
Saint Anselm College[66] August 9–11, 2022 1,898 (RV) ± 2.3% 39% 53% 8%

Debates

2022 United States Senate general election in New Hampshire debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Democratic Republican
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee  W  Withdrawn
Maggie Hassan Donald C. Bolduc
1 October 27, 2022 NHPR Josh Rogers, Amanda Gokee [148] P P
1 November 1, 2022 Saint Anselm College Adam Sexton [149] P P

Results

Jeremy Kauffman - election results by municipality

In the early months of the campaign, Hassan maintained a healthy lead in the polls. Polls began to tighten around September 2022 and by late October, a few polls even showed Bolduc with a narrow lead or had the candidates tied. Most pundits concurred that Hassan had a very slight edge and that the race would be extremely tight. However, Hassan won reelection by 9 points, a margin considerably wider than what was expected and one far greater than her 0.14 point plurality in 2016. Hassan's victory made her the first Democrat to win re-election to the class 3 Senate seat in New Hampshire history. This, along with Democrats' comfortable victories in New Hampshire's two House races, affirmed New Hampshire's transition from a closely contested swing state to a clearly Democratic leaning state at the federal level.

2022 United States Senate election in New Hampshire[150]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Maggie Hassan (incumbent) 332,490 53.54% +5.56%
Republican Don Bolduc 275,631 44.39% −3.45%
Libertarian Jeremy Kauffman 12,390 2.00% +0.30%
Write-in 464 0.07% –
Total votes 620,975 100.0%
Democratic hold

By county

By county
2022 Senate election results in New Hampshire (by county) [151]
County Maggie Hassan
Democratic 		Don Bolduc
Republican 		Other votes Total
votes
# % # % # % #
Belknap 13,669 44.4% 16,591 53.9% 537 1.7% 30,797
Carroll 13,708 50.5% 13,014 48.0% 415 1.5% 27,137
Cheshire 20,083 59.1% 13,241 38.9% 684 2.0% 34,008
Coös 6,059 47.0% 6,491 50.3% 353 2.7% 12,903
Grafton 26,337 61.6% 15,544 36.3% 891 2.1% 42,772
Hillsborough 91,776 53.2% 76,862 44.6% 3,738 2.2% 172,376
Merrimack 39,367 55.6% 29,965 42.3% 1,526 2.2% 70,858
Rockingham 78,047 50.6% 73,244 47.4% 3,096 2.0% 154,387
Strafford 33,240 58.7% 22,217 39.2% 1,161 2.1% 56,618
Sullivan 9,907 51.8% 8,759 45.8% 453 2.4% 19,119

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Hassan won both congressional districts.[152]

District Hassan Bolduc Representative
1st 53% 45% Chris Pappas
2nd 54% 43% Annie Kuster

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Candidate for U.S. Senate in 2010, 2014, 2016, and 2020; candidate for New Hampshire's 2nd congressional district in 2012 and 2018
  2. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  5. ^ Kauffman (L) with 2%
  6. ^ Kauffman (L) with 1%; "Another candidate" with <1%
  7. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  8. ^ Kauffman (L) with 2%
  9. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  10. ^ Kauffman (L) with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
  11. ^ Kauffman (L) with 3%; "Someone else" with 2%
  12. ^ Kauffman (L) with 4%
  13. ^ Kauffman (L) with 2%
  14. ^ Kauffman (L) with 3%
  15. ^ Kauffman (L) with 3%
  16. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  17. ^ Kauffman (L) with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
  18. ^ Kauffman (L) with 3%; "Someone else" with 2%
  19. ^ Kauffman (L) with 3%
  20. ^ Kauffman (L) with 4%
  21. ^ Kauffman (L) with 3%
  22. ^ "Someone else" with 4%
  23. ^ Kauffman (L) with 3%
  24. ^ Kauffman (L) with 5%
  25. ^ Archived July 21, 2022, at the Wayback Machine
  26. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b Poll conducted for American Greatness, a conservative news and opinions site.
  2. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by Bolduc's campaign.
  3. ^ This poll was sponsored by AARP.
  4. ^ This poll was sponsored by Future Majority and America’s Future Majority Fund.
  5. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Messner's campaign

References

  1. ^ "United States Senate election in New Hampshire, 2022". Ballotpedia. Retrieved January 19, 2021.
  2. ^ "Election Dates". New Hampshire Department of State. Retrieved June 16, 2022.
  3. ^ "2022 US Senate Election Results: Live Map". ABC News. November 9, 2022. Retrieved November 9, 2022.
  4. ^ "Hassan to Seek Second Term in U.S. Senate in 2022". U.S. News & World Report. Associated Press. December 6, 2020. Retrieved January 25, 2021.
  5. ^ a b c "Welcome". New Hampshire Secretary of State.
  6. ^ a b Steinhauser, Paul (April 23, 2021). "Facing potentially tough 2022 re-election, Hassan gets shoutout from VP Harris". Concord Monitor.
  7. ^ a b "AIPAC PAC Featured Candidates". AIPAC PAC.
  8. ^ @Maggie_Hassan (March 17, 2022). "Gun violence has affected far too many communities across America. I'm proud to have the support of @Brady_PAC as we work together to push for common-sense gun safety legislation" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  9. ^ a b "Senate Candidates". Council for a Livable World.
  10. ^ a b "U.S. Senate Candidates". emilyslist.org.
  11. ^ a b "Campaign finance-focused PAC makes first 2022 Senate endorsements". May 13, 2021.
  12. ^ a b "2022 Feminist Majority PAC Endorsements". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved April 9, 2022.
  13. ^ a b "Giffords Endorses Maggie Hassan for the US Senate". www.giffords.org. December 16, 2021.
  14. ^ a b Luneau, Delphine (April 5, 2022). "Human Rights Campaign Endorses Senator Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire for Reelection to U.S. Senate". Human Rights Campaign. Human Rights Campaign.
  15. ^ a b "2022 Endorsements". Humane Society Legislative Fund.
  16. ^ a b "Jewish Dems Start 2022 Election Cycle With First Slate of Endorsements". www.jewishdems.org. November 30, 2021. Retrieved December 11, 2021.
  17. ^ a b Connon, Courtnee (June 10, 2021). "LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of U.S. Senate Endorsements in the 2022 Election Cycle". League of Conservation Voters.
  18. ^ a b Bowman, Bridget (May 13, 2021). "Campaign finance-focused PAC makes first 2022 Senate endorsements". rollcall.com.
  19. ^ a b "NARAL Pro-Choice America Endorses Sen. Maggie Hassan for Reelection to the U.S. Senate for New Hampshire". NARAL Pro-Choice America. August 26, 2021.
  20. ^ a b "NWPC 2022 Endorsed Candidates". National Women's Political Caucus.
  21. ^ a b Turrentine, Jeff (March 8, 2022). "NRDC Action Fund Endorses These Candidates in the 2022 Elections". Natural Resources Defense Council. Retrieved March 15, 2022.
  22. ^ a b "NH Primary Source: Hassan among initial round of US Senate endorsements by Planned Parenthood Action Fund". WMUR. October 21, 2021.
  23. ^ a b "2022 House & Senate Endorsements". Population Connection Action Fund. Archived from the original on July 2, 2022. Retrieved April 21, 2022.
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Official campaign websites