2016 United States presidential election in Kentucky

Main article: 2016 United States presidential election
2016 United States presidential election in Kentucky
← 2012 November 8, 2016 2020 →
Turnout59.10%[1] Decrease
 
Nominee Donald Trump Hillary Clinton
Party Republican Democratic
Home state New York New York
Running mate Mike Pence Tim Kaine
Electoral vote 8 0
Popular vote 1,202,971 628,854
Percentage 62.52% 32.68%
President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Treemap of the popular vote by county.
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The 2016 United States presidential election in Kentucky was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Kentucky voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Kentucky has eight electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Although Kentucky was won twice by Southern Democrat Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, Trump easily carried the state with 62.52% of the vote to Hillary Clinton's 32.68%, a margin of 29.84%. Trump won Kentucky by the largest margin of any Republican in history, and he swept counties across the state.[3] Clinton's performance was also the worst for any Democratic nominee in history. She carried only the state's two most urban and populous counties: Jefferson County, home to Louisville; and Fayette County, home to Lexington, both of which traditionally vote Democratic. Kentucky was also one of eleven states to have twice voted for Bill Clinton but against his wife Hillary in 2016.

Trump's victory in Kentucky made it his fifth-strongest state in the 2016 election after West Virginia, Wyoming, Oklahoma, and North Dakota.[4] Most notably, Trump ended Elliott County's nearly 150-year tradition of voting Democratic in every presidential election, winning with 2,000 votes to Clinton's 740, or 70%–26%. Nevertheless, he became the first Republican since Warren G. Harding in 1920 to win the White House without carrying Fayette County.

Caucuses

Republican caucus

Republican primary results by county.
  Donald Trump
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Ted Cruz
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%

Delegates were awarded to candidates who got 5% or more of the vote proportionally.

In order to avoid a local law forbidding one candidate to run for two offices in the same primary, Rand Paul paid to have a presidential caucus, which took place on March 5. Paul dropped out prior to this.[5]

Kentucky Republican caucuses, March 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 82,493 35.92% 17 0 17
Ted Cruz 72,503 31.57% 15 0 15
Marco Rubio 37,579 16.36% 7 0 7
John Kasich 33,134 14.43% 7 0 7
Ben Carson (withdrawn) 1,951 0.85% 0 0 0
Rand Paul (withdrawn) 872 0.38% 0 0 0
Uncommitted 496 0.22% 0 0 0
Jeb Bush (withdrawn) 305 0.13% 0 0 0
Mike Huckabee (withdrawn) 174 0.08% 0 0 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 65 0.03% 0 0 0
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) 64 0.03% 0 0 0
Rick Santorum (withdrawn) 31 0.03% 0 0 0
Total: 229,667 100.00% 40 0 40
Source: The Green Papers, Republican Party of Kentucky

Democratic primary

Main article: 2016 Kentucky Democratic primary

Four candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:

Kentucky Democratic primary, May 17, 2016
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Hillary Clinton 212,534 46.76% 28 2 30
Bernie Sanders 210,623 46.33% 27 0 27
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn) 5,713 1.26%
Roque "Rocky" De La Fuente 1,594 0.35%
Uncommitted 24,104 5.30% 0 3 3
Total 454,568 100% 55 5 60
Source: The Green Papers, Kentucky Secretary of State

General election

Polling

See also: Statewide opinion polling for the 2016 United States presidential election § Kentucky

Predictions

The following are final 2016 predictions from various organizations for Kentucky as of Election Day.

Source Ranking As of
Los Angeles Times[6] Safe R November 6, 2016
CNN[7] Safe R November 8, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[8] Safe R November 7, 2016
NBC[9] Likely R November 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics[10] Safe R November 8, 2016
Fox News[11] Safe R November 7, 2016
ABC[12] Safe R November 7, 2016

Results

2016 United States presidential election in Kentucky[13]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Donald Trump 1,202,971 62.52%
Democratic Hillary Clinton 628,854 32.68%
Libertarian Gary Johnson 53,752 2.79%
Independent Evan McMullin (write-in) 22,780 1.18%
Green Jill Stein 13,913 0.72%
Write-in 1,879 0.10%
Total votes 1,924,149 100.00%

By county

County Donald Trump
Republican 		Hillary Clinton
Democratic 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Adair 6,637 80.61% 1,323 16.07% 273 3.32% 5,314 64.54% 8,233
Allen 6,466 79.87% 1,349 16.66% 281 3.47% 5,117 63.21% 8,096
Anderson 8,242 72.16% 2,634 23.06% 546 4.78% 5,608 49.10% 11,422
Ballard 3,161 77.08% 816 19.90% 124 3.02% 2,345 57.18% 4,101
Barren 13,483 72.93% 4,275 23.12% 730 3.95% 9,208 49.81% 18,488
Bath 3,082 67.19% 1,361 29.67% 144 3.14% 1,721 37.52% 4,587
Bell 7,764 79.89% 1,720 17.70% 234 2.41% 6,044 62.19% 9,718
Boone 39,082 67.83% 15,026 26.08% 3,510 6.09% 24,056 41.75% 57,618
Bourbon 5,569 63.26% 2,791 31.71% 443 5.03% 2,778 31.55% 8,803
Boyd 13,591 66.45% 6,021 29.44% 842 4.11% 7,570 37.01% 20,454
Boyle 8,040 62.10% 4,281 33.07% 625 4.83% 3,759 29.03% 12,946
Bracken 2,711 76.86% 705 19.99% 111 3.15% 2,006 56.87% 3,527
Breathitt 3,991 69.55% 1,537 26.79% 210 3.66% 2,454 42.76% 5,738
Breckinridge 6,484 73.90% 1,960 22.34% 330 3.76% 4,524 51.56% 8,774
Bullitt 26,210 72.67% 8,255 22.89% 1,604 4.44% 17,955 49.78% 36,069
Butler 4,428 79.41% 947 16.98% 201 3.61% 3,481 62.43% 5,576
Caldwell 4,507 75.43% 1,260 21.09% 208 3.48% 3,247 54.34% 5,975
Calloway 10,367 64.60% 4,749 29.59% 933 5.81% 5,618 35.01% 16,049
Campbell 25,050 58.93% 14,658 34.48% 2,802 6.59% 10,392 24.45% 42,510
Carlisle 2,094 80.51% 432 16.61% 75 2.88% 1,662 63.90% 2,601
Carroll 2,588 67.13% 1,106 28.69% 161 4.18% 1,482 38.44% 3,855
Carter 7,587 73.82% 2,276 22.14% 415 4.04% 5,311 51.68% 10,278
Casey 5,482 85.14% 767 11.91% 190 2.95% 4,715 73.23% 6,439
Christian 14,108 63.89% 7,188 32.55% 787 3.56% 6,920 31.34% 22,083
Clark 10,710 66.09% 4,706 29.04% 789 4.87% 6,004 37.05% 16,205
Clay 5,861 86.61% 752 11.11% 154 2.28% 5,109 75.50% 6,767
Clinton 3,809 85.37% 547 12.26% 106 2.37% 3,262 73.11% 4,462
Crittenden 3,290 81.50% 617 15.28% 130 3.22% 2,673 66.22% 4,037
Cumberland 2,502 81.60% 459 14.97% 105 3.43% 2,043 66.63% 3,066
Daviess 28,907 63.11% 14,163 30.92% 2,737 5.97% 14,744 32.19% 45,807
Edmonson 4,135 78.85% 979 18.67% 130 2.48% 3,156 60.18% 5,244
Elliott 2,000 70.05% 740 25.92% 115 4.03% 1,260 44.13% 2,855
Estill 4,236 76.39% 1,108 19.98% 201 3.63% 3,128 56.41% 5,545
Fayette 56,894 41.74% 69,778 51.19% 9,643 7.07% -12,884 -9.45% 136,315
Fleming 4,722 75.43% 1,348 21.53% 190 3.04% 3,374 53.90% 6,260
Floyd 11,993 72.51% 4,015 24.27% 532 3.22% 7,978 48.24% 16,540
Franklin 11,819 49.52% 10,717 44.91% 1,329 5.57% 1,102 4.61% 23,865
Fulton 1,549 65.03% 774 32.49% 59 2.48% 775 32.54% 2,382
Gallatin 2,443 73.19% 749 22.44% 146 4.37% 1,694 50.75% 3,338
Garrard 5,904 77.45% 1,453 19.06% 266 3.49% 4,451 58.39% 7,623
Grant 7,268 76.03% 1,910 19.98% 381 3.99% 5,358 56.05% 9,559
Graves 12,671 76.30% 3,308 19.92% 627 3.78% 9,363 56.38% 16,606
Grayson 8,219 77.71% 1,959 18.52% 398 3.77% 6,260 59.19% 10,576
Green 4,372 81.98% 832 15.60% 129 2.42% 3,540 66.38% 5,333
Greenup 11,546 70.93% 4,146 25.47% 585 3.60% 7,400 45.46% 16,277
Hancock 2,788 64.91% 1,244 28.96% 263 6.13% 1,544 35.95% 4,295
Hardin 26,971 62.50% 13,944 32.31% 2,241 5.19% 13,027 30.19% 43,156
Harlan 9,129 84.87% 1,372 12.75% 256 2.38% 7,757 72.12% 10,757
Harrison 5,435 69.85% 2,031 26.10% 315 4.05% 3,404 43.75% 7,781
Hart 5,320 73.24% 1,730 23.82% 214 2.94% 3,590 49.42% 7,264
Henderson 12,159 61.69% 6,707 34.03% 844 4.28% 5,452 27.66% 19,710
Henry 4,944 69.16% 1,828 25.57% 377 5.27% 3,116 43.59% 7,149
Hickman 1,657 76.82% 449 20.82% 51 2.36% 1,208 56.00% 2,157
Hopkins 15,277 75.09% 4,310 21.18% 758 3.73% 10,967 53.91% 20,345
Jackson 4,889 88.87% 482 8.76% 130 2.37% 4,407 80.11% 5,501
Jefferson 143,768 40.72% 190,836 54.05% 18,496 5.23% -47,068 -13.33% 353,100
Jessamine 15,474 66.34% 6,144 26.34% 1,708 7.32% 9,330 40.00% 23,326
Johnson 8,043 84.03% 1,250 13.06% 279 2.91% 6,793 70.97% 9,572
Kenton 42,958 59.67% 24,214 33.63% 4,826 6.70% 18,744 26.04% 71,998
Knott 4,357 75.60% 1,245 21.60% 161 2.80% 3,112 54.00% 5,763
Knox 9,885 82.29% 1,761 14.66% 366 3.05% 8,124 67.63% 12,012
LaRue 4,799 75.37% 1,278 20.07% 290 4.56% 3,521 55.30% 6,367
Laurel 20,592 82.92% 3,440 13.85% 801 3.23% 17,152 69.07% 24,833
Lawrence 4,816 79.71% 1,045 17.30% 181 2.99% 3,771 62.41% 6,042
Lee 2,151 80.65% 444 16.65% 72 2.70% 1,707 64.00% 2,667
Leslie 4,015 89.38% 400 8.90% 74 1.72% 3,615 80.48% 4,492
Letcher 7,293 79.84% 1,542 16.88% 299 3.28% 5,751 62.96% 9,134
Lewis 4,363 82.35% 785 14.82% 150 2.83% 3,578 67.53% 5,298
Lincoln 7,338 76.75% 1,865 19.51% 358 3.74% 5,473 57.24% 9,561
Livingston 3,570 76.86% 887 19.10% 188 4.04% 2,683 57.76% 4,645
Logan 7,778 71.36% 2,755 25.28% 366 3.36% 5,023 46.08% 10,899
Lyon 2,789 70.39% 1,045 26.38% 128 3.23% 1,744 44.01% 3,962
McCracken 20,774 66.36% 9,134 29.18% 1,399 4.46% 11,640 37.18% 31,307
McCreary 5,012 86.77% 664 11.50% 100 1.73% 4,348 75.27% 5,776
McLean 3,381 74.05% 988 21.64% 197 4.31% 2,393 52.41% 4,566
Madison 23,431 62.70% 11,793 31.56% 2,147 5.74% 11,638 31.14% 37,371
Magoffin 3,824 74.75% 1,172 22.91% 120 2.34% 2,652 51.84% 5,116
Marion 5,122 63.15% 2,679 33.03% 310 3.82% 2,443 30.12% 8,111
Marshall 12,322 73.79% 3,672 21.99% 704 4.22% 8,650 51.80% 16,698
Martin 3,503 88.62% 363 9.18% 87 2.20% 3,140 79.44% 3,953
Mason 4,944 68.49% 1,970 27.29% 305 4.22% 2,974 41.20% 7,219
Meade 8,660 70.80% 3,026 24.74% 545 4.46% 5,634 46.06% 12,231
Menifee 2,010 72.33% 700 25.19% 69 2.48% 1,310 47.14% 2,779
Mercer 7,740 73.12% 2,395 22.63% 450 4.25% 5,345 50.49% 10,585
Metcalfe 3,491 75.56% 976 21.13% 153 3.31% 2,515 54.43% 4,620
Monroe 4,278 85.71% 601 12.04% 112 2.25% 3,677 73.67% 4,991
Montgomery 7,856 68.60% 3,158 27.58% 438 3.82% 4,698 41.02% 11,452
Morgan 3,628 75.98% 1,006 21.07% 141 2.95% 2,622 54.91% 4,775
Muhlenberg 9,393 71.92% 3,272 25.05% 395 3.03% 6,121 46.87% 13,060
Nelson 13,431 64.57% 6,434 30.93% 937 4.50% 6,997 33.64% 20,802
Nicholas 1,957 68.88% 787 27.70% 97 3.42% 1,170 41.18% 2,841
Ohio 7,942 76.38% 2,080 20.00% 376 3.62% 5,862 56.38% 10,398
Oldham 20,469 62.30% 10,268 31.25% 2,116 6.45% 10,201 31.05% 32,853
Owen 3,745 74.89% 1,062 21.24% 194 3.87% 2,683 53.65% 5,001
Owsley 1,474 83.80% 256 14.55% 29 1.65% 1,218 69.25% 1,759
Pendleton 4,604 76.64% 1,164 19.38% 239 3.98% 3,440 57.26% 6,007
Perry 8,158 77.17% 2,136 20.20% 278 2.63% 6,022 56.97% 10,572
Pike 19,747 80.06% 4,280 17.35% 638 2.59% 15,467 62.71% 24,665
Powell 3,513 70.87% 1,272 25.66% 172 3.47% 2,241 45.21% 4,957
Pulaski 22,902 81.67% 4,208 15.01% 931 3.32% 18,694 66.66% 28,041
Robertson 759 74.93% 222 21.92% 32 3.15% 537 53.01% 1,013
Rockcastle 5,609 83.83% 915 13.68% 167 2.49% 4,694 70.15% 6,691
Rowan 5,174 58.48% 3,295 37.24% 379 4.28% 1,879 21.24% 8,848
Russell 6,863 83.96% 1,093 13.37% 218 2.67% 5,770 70.59% 8,174
Scott 15,052 62.20% 7,715 31.88% 1,433 5.92% 7,337 30.32% 24,200
Shelby 13,196 64.12% 6,276 30.50% 1,108 5.38% 6,920 33.62% 20,580
Simpson 5,077 67.41% 2,144 28.47% 310 4.12% 2,933 38.94% 7,531
Spencer 7,196 75.63% 1,921 20.19% 398 4.18% 5,275 55.44% 9,515
Taylor 8,320 73.59% 2,553 22.58% 433 3.83% 5,767 51.01% 11,306
Todd 3,612 75.58% 1,042 21.80% 125 2.62% 2,570 53.78% 4,779
Trigg 4,931 73.04% 1,587 23.51% 233 3.45% 3,344 49.53% 6,751
Trimble 2,771 72.96% 879 23.14% 148 3.90% 1,892 49.82% 3,798
Union 4,701 75.69% 1,331 21.43% 179 2.88% 3,370 54.26% 6,211
Warren 28,673 59.18% 16,966 35.01% 2,815 5.81% 11,707 24.17% 48,454
Washington 4,013 71.20% 1,420 25.20% 203 3.60% 2,593 46.00% 5,636
Wayne 6,371 79.72% 1,431 17.91% 190 2.37% 4,940 61.81% 7,992
Webster 4,397 75.75% 1,240 21.36% 168 2.89% 3,157 54.39% 5,805
Whitley 11,312 82.13% 2,067 15.01% 395 2.86% 9,245 67.12% 13,774
Wolfe 1,804 68.46% 753 28.58% 78 2.96% 1,051 39.88% 2,635
Woodford 7,697 56.75% 4,958 36.56% 908 6.69% 2,739 20.19% 13,563
Totals 1,202,971 62.52% 628,854 32.68% 92,325 4.80% 574,117 29.84% 1,924,150
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Trump won 5 of 6 congressional districts.

District Trump Clinton Representative
1st 72% 24% Ed Whitfield
James Comer
2nd 68% 28% Brett Guthrie
3rd 40% 55% John Yarmuth
4th 65% 29% Thomas Massie
5th 80% 18% Hal Rogers
6th 55% 39% Andy Barr

See also

Notes

References

  1. ^ Voter Turnout by Age and Sex Archived July 1, 2017, at the Wayback Machine
  2. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved November 25, 2020.
  3. ^ "Presidential General Election Results Comparison - Kentucky". Uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved October 19, 2021.
  4. ^ "2016 Presidential Election Statistics". Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. Retrieved March 5, 2018.
  5. ^ "Kentucky caucus moves forward without Rand Paul | News". Richmondregister.com. February 14, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  6. ^ "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times. November 6, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  7. ^ "Road to 270: CNN's general election map - CNNPolitics.com". Cnn.com. November 8, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  8. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2016 President". Centerforpolitics.org. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  9. ^ Todd, Chuck. "NBC's Final Battleground Map Shows Clinton With a Significant Lead". NBC News. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  10. ^ "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  11. ^ "Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Fox News. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  12. ^ "The Final 15: The Latest Polls in the Swing States That Will Decide the Election". Abcnews.go.com. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  13. ^ Federal Election Commission