2016 United States Senate election in Utah

See also: 2016 United States Senate elections

2016 United States Senate election in Utah
← 2010 November 8, 2016 2022 →
 
Nominee Mike Lee Misty Snow
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 760,241 301,860
Percentage 68.15% 27.06%
Lee:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Snow:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%      No data
U.S. senator before election

Mike Lee
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Mike Lee
Republican

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The 2016 United States Senate election in Utah took place on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Utah, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

The primaries took place on June 28. Misty Snow won the Democratic nomination, becoming the first transgender woman in the history of the United States to become a major party's nominee for the Senate.[1]

Incumbent Republican Senator Mike Lee won re-election to a second term in office.[2]

Republican primary

It was thought that Lee, a Tea Party Republican, might face a primary challenge from a member of the more establishment wing of the Party following his role in the unpopular 2013 federal government shutdown, which caused his approval ratings to drop precipitously.[3][4][5][6] However, since that time, his approval ratings rose significantly.[7]

Changes to Utah's primary system could adversely affect Lee's chances at renomination.[8] Presently, Utah political parties hold conventions, where delegates attend and vote for candidates. Only if a candidate fails to gain at least 60% of the vote do the top two finishers proceed to a statewide primary election.[8] In 2010, incumbent senator Bob Bennett finished third at the convention behind Lee and businessman Tim Bridgewater and was eliminated, with Lee defeating Bridgewater in the subsequent primary election. Lee's approval rating is much higher among the smaller group of more conservative convention delegates and a recent change in the law, backed by the group Count My Vote, allows candidates to bypass the convention by collecting signatures to advance to the primary.[8] Thus, a less conservative challenger could challenge Lee in the primary, appealing to more moderate Republican and unaffiliated voters, who could participate in the primary.[8] The constitutionality of the changes have been challenged in court by the Utah Republican Party.[8]

One possible challenger to Lee was former governor of Utah and former United States Secretary of Health and Human Services Mike Leavitt, one of the founders of Count My Vote,[9] though he eventually denied interest in running.[8][10] An effort to draft Huntsman Sr.'s son, Jon Huntsman Jr., the former governor of Utah, former United States Ambassador to China under Barack Obama and a candidate for President in 2012,[11] was unsuccessful, with Huntsman ruling out a run against Lee.[12]

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Endorsements

Mike Lee

Individuals

Organizations

Democratic primary

Candidates

Jonathan Swinton was the first Democrat to announce his candidacy for U.S. Senate, filing on August 10.[27][28] The other candidates filing for the nomination were Craig Oliver, Jade Tuan Quoc Vo, and Misty K. Snow. Snow filed on March 3.[29] Oliver withdrew before the state convention.[29] Vo was eliminated in the first round of balloting.[30]

Swinton faced criticism at the April 23 state convention from delegates who said he was pro-life,[30] a criticism based primarily on Swinton's September 26 op-ed in the Salt Lake Tribune in which he describes himself as a "conservative Democrat" and "pro-life" while also calling for "a full investigation of Planned Parenthood."[31] Swinton tried unsuccessfully to avoid discussing his views on abortion at the state convention.[30]

After two rounds of balloting, neither Snow nor Swinton received the 60% of the vote they needed to secure the Democratic nomination.[30] As a result, the two faced off in a June 28 primary, which Snow won.[32]

Declared

  • Misty K. Snow, cashier[29]
  • Jonathan Swinton, marriage and family therapist[33]

Eliminated at Convention

  • Jade Tuan Quoc Vo[30]

Withdrawn

Declined

Polling

A Dan Jones & Associates poll for UtahPolicy.com showed Snow leading with Democratic voters 33% to Swinton's 20%, as well as with independent voters, 23% to Swinton's 10%. The majority of the voters that were surveyed were undecided. The survey was administered from May 2–10, 2016 to 588 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.04%.[38]

Primary results

Results by county:
Snow
  •   Snow—70–80%
  •   Snow—60–70%
  •   Snow—50–60%
Snow/Swinton tie
  •   Snow/Swinton tie—50–60%
Swinton
  •   Swinton—50–60%
  •   Swinton—100%
Democratic primary results[39]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Misty K. Snow 28,928 59.40%
Democratic Jonathan Swinton 19,774 40.60%
Total votes 48,702 100.00%

Third party and independent candidates

General election

Debates

Dates Location Lee Snow Link
October 12, 2016 Provo, Utah Participant Participant [41]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[42] Safe R November 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[43] Safe R November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[44] Safe R November 3, 2016
Daily Kos[45] Safe R November 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics[46] Safe R November 7, 2016

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Mike
Lee (R) 		Misty
Snow (D) 		Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey[47] November 1–7, 2016 1,479 ± 4.6% 60% 36% — 4%
SurveyMonkey[48] October 31–November 6, 2016 1,428 ± 4.6% 60% 36% — 4%
CBS News/YouGov[49] November 3–5, 2016 762 ± 4.9% 69% 23% 2% 6%
Y2 Analytics (R-Utah Republican Party)[50] November 1–3, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 62% 22% 8% 7%
SurveyMonkey[51] October 28–November 3, 2016 1,327 ± 4.6% 61% 35% — 4%
Monmouth University[52] October 30–November 2, 2016 402 ± 4.9% 61% 28% 5% 5%
SurveyMonkey[53] October 27–November 2, 2016 1,247 ± 4.6% 61% 35% — 4%
SurveyMonkey[54] October 26–November 1, 2016 1,057 ± 4.6% 61% 34% — 5%
HeatStreet/Rasmussen[55] October 29–31, 2016 750 ± 4.0% 59% 27% 5% 7%
SurveyMonkey[56] October 25–31, 2016 1,078 ± 4.6% 62% 34% — 4%
HeatStreet/Rasmussen[57] October 14–16, 2016 750 ± 4.0% 57% 25% 8% 10%
Monmouth University[58] October 10–12, 2016 403 ± 4.9% 60% 31% 3% 6%
UtahPolicy/Dan Jones[59] September 1–9, 2016 605 ± 4.0% 60% 23% 7% 10%
Public Policy Polling[60] August 19–21, 2016 1,018 ± 3.1% 51% 21% 8% 20%
UtahPolicy/Dan Jones[61] July 18–August 4, 2016 858 ± 3.3% 57% 22% 9% 12%
SurveyUSA[62] June 6–8, 2016 1,238 ± 2.8% 51% 37% 4% 8%
Hypothetical polling

with Jonathan Swinton

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Mike
Lee (R) 		Jonathan
Swinton (D) 		Other Undecided
SurveyUSA[62] June 6–8, 2016 1,238 ± 2.8% 50% 39% 3% 7%
UtahPolicy/Dan Jones[63] March 23–April 5, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 54% 28% — 18%
UtahPolicy/Dan Jones[64] September 8–17, 2015 604 ± 4.0% 55% 25% 4% 17%

with Jim Matheson

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Mike
Lee (R) 		Jim
Matheson (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[60] August 19–21, 2016 1,018 ± 3.1% 44% 37% 5% 14%
UtahPolicy/Dan Jones[65] March 30–April 7, 2015 601 ± 4.0% 48% 42% — 10%

with Doug Owens

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Mike
Lee (R) 		Doug
Owens (D) 		Other Undecided
UtahPolicy/Dan Jones[66] May 4–12, 2015 803 ± 3.5% 55% 36% — 10%

Open primary

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Mike
Lee (R) 		Jim
Matheson (D) 		Ben
McAdams (D) 		Doug
Owens (D) 		Josh
Romney (R) 		Thomas
Wright (R) 		Undecided
UtahPolicy/Dan Jones[65] March 30–April 7, 2015 601 ± 4.0% 33% 20% 5% 8% 20% 2% 12%

Results

United States Senate election in Utah, 2016[67]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Mike Lee (incumbent) 760,241 68.15% +6.59%
Democratic Misty Snow 301,860 27.06% −5.71%
Independent American Stoney Fonua 27,340 2.45% N/A
Independent Bill Barron 26,167 2.34% N/A
Total votes 1,115,608 100.0% N/A
Republican hold

By congressional district

Lee won all 4 congressional districts.[68]

District Lee Snow Representative
1st 72% 23% Rob Bishop
2nd 63% 31% Chris Stewart
3rd 74% 22% Jason Chaffetz
4th 63% 32% Mia Love

References

  1. ^ Nelson, Louis (June 29, 2016). "Two transgender candidates named 'Misty' win primaries". Politico. Retrieved June 29, 2016.
  2. ^ a b c Bob Bernick (April 26, 2014). "GOP Delegates Give Rousing Reception to Sen. Mike Lee". Utah Policy. Retrieved December 12, 2014.
  3. ^ a b c Robert Gehrke (October 10, 2013). "Most Utahns disapprove of Sen. Mike Lee, want him to compromise". Salt Lake Tribune. Archived from the original on October 10, 2013. Retrieved November 8, 2014.
  4. ^ a b c Philip Rucker (October 22, 2013). "In Utah, tea party favorite Sen. Lee faces GOP backlash over government shutdown". The Washington Post. Retrieved November 8, 2014.
  5. ^ Quin Monson (October 9, 2013). "Senator Lee and the Shutdown". Utah Data Points. Retrieved November 8, 2014.
  6. ^ a b c Manu Raju (December 22, 2014). "Tea partier braces for primary challenge from the establishment". Politico. Retrieved December 22, 2014.
  7. ^ MATT CANHAM (September 29, 2014). "Poll shows rebound in Utah's Sen. Mike Lee's approval rating". The Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved April 14, 2015.
  8. ^ a b c d e f g Robert Gehrke (December 11, 2014). "Mike Lee could be vulnerable if Count My Vote changes stick". The Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved December 12, 2014.
  9. ^ a b Bob Bernick (December 7, 2012). "Bob Bernick's Notebook - Could Republicans Challenge Lee From His Left?". Utah Policy. Retrieved December 12, 2014.[permanent dead link‍]
  10. ^ a b Bob Bernick (June 9, 2014). "A 2016 Leavitt Campaign Not Likely". Utah Policy. Retrieved December 12, 2014.
  11. ^ a b Lisa Riley Roche (February 16, 2015). "Huntsman could run against Lee in 2016 Senate race, Republicans say". KSL.com. Retrieved February 18, 2015.
  12. ^ a b Lisa Riley Roche (February 17, 2015). "Huntsman: I won't challenge Sen. Mike Lee". Deseret News. Retrieved February 17, 2015.
  13. ^ a b Canham, Matt (March 11, 2015). "Sen. Mike Lee's re-election backed by Jon Huntsman Jr., Zions' Scott Anderson". The Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved May 24, 2015.
  14. ^ a b c d e f g Abby Livingston (April 2, 2014). "Next Utah Races to Watch Are for Senate". Roll Call. Retrieved April 3, 2014.
  15. ^ Bernick, Bob (January 21, 2015). "Poll: Herbert's Approval Ratings Remain High; Lt. Gov. Cox Relatively Unknown". Utah Policy. Retrieved December 19, 2015.
  16. ^ Roche, Lisa Riley (April 25, 2015). "Former Romney finance director courting challenger to Sen. Mike Lee". KSL-TV. Retrieved April 27, 2015.
  17. ^ Roche, Lisa Riley (April 28, 2015). "Provo businessman declines push to run against Sen. Mike Lee". Deseret News. Retrieved April 29, 2015.
  18. ^ Roche, Lisa Riley (April 16, 2015). "Kirk Jowers leaves U.'s Hinckley Institute for job in private sector". KSL-TV. Retrieved May 30, 2015.
  19. ^ a b Canham, Matt (April 12, 2015). "Mike Lee could be a lock for re-election to Senate". The Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved May 30, 2015.
  20. ^ Jacobsen, Morgan (November 24, 2015). "Newly selected UCAT president declines position, accepts counteroffer". KSL. Retrieved December 19, 2015.
  21. ^ "Sean Reyes takes oath of office as Utah's top lawman". Daily Herald. January 5, 2015. Archived from the original on October 18, 2017. Retrieved May 30, 2015.
  22. ^ Lisa Riley Roche (April 21, 2015). "Josh Romney: I won't run against Sen. Mike Lee, but another Republican should". Deseret News. Archived from the original on April 22, 2015.
  23. ^ "Former GOP presidential candidate Carly Fiorina endorses Sen. Mike Lee". Deseret News. April 13, 2016.
  24. ^ "American Conservative Union Endorses Mike Lee". October 23, 2016.
  25. ^ David Sherfinski (November 12, 2014). "Club for Growth endorses six GOP senators for re-election in 2016". The Washington Times. Retrieved November 12, 2014.
  26. ^ "U.S. Senate Endorsements". Senate Conservatives Fund. Archived from the original on May 13, 2015. Retrieved May 24, 2015.
  27. ^ Nelson, Bob (August 17, 2015). "1st in Run Against Senator Lee is a Washington Outsider and Democrat". kuer.org. Retrieved April 28, 2016.
  28. ^ "Details for Candidate ID : S6UT00238". Federal Election Commission. Retrieved July 3, 2016.
  29. ^ a b c "2016 Candidate Filings - Lieutenant Governor's Office: Elections". elections.utah.gov. Archived from the original on October 9, 2016. Retrieved April 28, 2016.
  30. ^ a b c d e Tribune, Matt Canham The Salt Lake. "Weinholtz wins Dem nomination in Utah governor's race, says wife under investigation for pot possession". The Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved April 28, 2016.
  31. ^ Swinton, Jonathan. "Op-ed: Shutting down the government is no way to lead". The Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved April 28, 2016.
  32. ^ Leonard, Wendy (April 23, 2016). "Utah Dems nominate Weinholtz to run for governor". DeseretNews.com. Retrieved April 28, 2016.
  33. ^ a b Canham, Matt (August 17, 2015). "Sen. Mike Lee's first challenger is marriage therapist Jonathan Swinton, an untested Democrat". The Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved August 19, 2015.
  34. ^ "2016 Candidate Filings - Lieutenant Governor's Office: Elections". elections.utah.gov. Archived from the original on October 9, 2016. Retrieved April 28, 2016.
  35. ^ Cheney, Kyle (December 29, 2014). "16 in '16: The new battle for the Senate". Politico. Retrieved December 29, 2014.
  36. ^ Riley Roche, Lisa (April 8, 2015). "Poll: Josh Romney would be a tough opponent for Sen. Mike Lee". Deseret News. Retrieved August 19, 2015.
  37. ^ Roche, Lisa Riley (July 21, 2015). "Doug Owens announces another run for congress". KSL News. Retrieved July 21, 2015.
  38. ^ Schott, Bryan (May 13, 2016). "Poll: Most Voters Undecided Between Snow and Swinton". utahpolicy.com. Retrieved May 16, 2016.
  39. ^ "Utah Election Official Results". Utah Secretary of State. Retrieved October 20, 2016.
  40. ^ a b Woodruff, Daniel (August 11, 2016). "Utah Sen. Mike Lee on track to win second term, new poll shows". KUTV. Retrieved September 2, 2016.
  41. ^ Full debate - C-SPAN
  42. ^ "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 26, 2021.
  43. ^ "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
  44. ^ "2016 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
  45. ^ "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version". Daily Kos. Retrieved March 27, 2021.
  46. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
  47. ^ SurveyMonkey
  48. ^ SurveyMonkey
  49. ^ CBS News/YouGov
  50. ^ Y2 Analytics (R-Utah Republican Party)
  51. ^ SurveyMonkey
  52. ^ Monmouth University
  53. ^ SurveyMonkey
  54. ^ SurveyMonkey
  55. ^ HeatStreet/Rasmussen
  56. ^ SurveyMonkey
  57. ^ HeatStreet/Rasmussen
  58. ^ Monmouth University
  59. ^ UtahPolicy/Dan Jones
  60. ^ a b Public Policy Polling
  61. ^ UtahPolicy/Dan Jones
  62. ^ a b SurveyUSA
  63. ^ UtahPolicy/Dan Jones
  64. ^ UtahPolicy/Dan Jones
  65. ^ a b UtahPolicy/Dan Jones
  66. ^ UtahPolicy/Dan Jones
  67. ^ "Utah Election Official Results" (PDF). Utah Secretary of State. Archived from the original (PDF) on May 14, 2021. Retrieved December 28, 2016.
  68. ^ "DRA 2020". Daves Redistricting. Retrieved August 18, 2024.

Official campaign websites