In March and April 2021, prior to the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Russian Armed Forces began massing thousands of personnel and military equipment near Russia's border with Ukraine and in Crimea, representing the largest mobilisation since the illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014.[37][38] This precipitated an international crisis due to concerns over a potential invasion. Satellite imagery showed movements of armour, missiles, and heavy weaponry towards the border.[39][40] The troops were partially withdrawn by June 2021,[41] though the infrastructure was left in place. A second build-up began in October 2021, this time with more soldiers and with deployments on new fronts; by December over 100,000 Russian troops were massed around Ukraine on three sides, including Belarus from the north and Crimea from the south.[42] Despite the Russian military build-ups, Russian officials from November 2021 to 20 February 2022 repeatedly denied that Russia had plans to invade Ukraine.[43][44]
The crisis was related to the War in Donbas, itself part of the Russo-Ukrainian War, ongoing since February 2014. Intercepted phone conversations of Sergey Glazyev, a top advisor to Russian President Vladimir Putin, disclosed the specifics of the project Novorossiya to take over not just Crimea, but also the Donbas, Kharkiv, Odesa, and Zaporizhzhia regions of Ukraine, which Russia apparently aimed to annex following Crimea.[45] The plan involved fomenting widespread unrest using pro-Russian agents on the ground, and then orchestrating uprisings that would announce rigged referendums about joining Russia, similar to the one that took place in Crimea on 16 March 2014. In December 2021, Russia advanced two draft treaties that contained requests for what it referred to as "security guarantees", including a legally binding promise that Ukraine would not join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and a reduction in NATO troops and materiel stationed in Eastern Europe, threatening unspecified military response if those demands were not met in full. NATO rejected these requests, and the United States warned Russia of "swift and severe" economic sanctions should it further invade Ukraine.[46] The crisis was described by many commentators as one of the most intense in Europe since the Cold War.[47][48][49]
On 21 February 2022, Russia officially recognised the two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine, the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic, as independent states,[50] and deployed troops to Donbas, in a move interpreted as Russia's effective withdrawal from the Minsk Protocol.[51][52] The breakaway republics were recognised in the boundaries of their respective Ukrainian oblasts, although much of this territory was still held by Ukrainian government forces.[53] On 22 February, Putin declared the Minsk agreements as invalid[54] and the Federation Council unanimously authorised him to use military force in the territories.[55] On the morning of 24 February, Putin announced that Russia was initiating a "special military operation" in the Donbas, and launched a full-scale invasion into Ukraine.[56][57]
Sergey Karaganov, who is considered close to Putin, formulated many of the core ideas that led to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.[58]
Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine and Russia continued to retain close ties.[59] In 1992, under the leadership of Boris Yeltsin and Leonid Kravchuk, the two countries signed an agreement on maintaining joint control over the Black Sea Fleet for a transition period, with a final settlement to be negotiated later.[60][61] In 1994, Ukraine signed the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances, agreeing to abandon its nuclear arsenal in exchange for assurances from Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States against threats or the use of force towards the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine.[62][63] Five years later, Russia became a signatory of the Charter for European Security, where it "reaffirmed the inherent right of each and every participating State to be free to choose or change its security arrangements, including treaties of alliance, as they evolve".[64][65]
Despite being recognised as an independent country since 1991,[66][67] Ukraine continued to be perceived by Russian leadership as part of its sphere of influence due to its status as a former USSR constituent republic.[68][69] In 2008, Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke out against Ukraine's membership in NATO.[70][71] In 2009, Romanian analyst Iulian Chifu and his co-authors opined that in regard to Ukraine, Russia has pursued an updated version of the Brezhnev Doctrine, which dictates that the sovereignty of Ukraine cannot be larger than that of the Warsaw Pact's member states prior to the collapse of the Soviet sphere of influence during the late 1980s and early 1990s.[72] In Putin's view, Russia's actions to placate the West in the early 1990s should have been met with reciprocity from the West, thus without NATO expansion along Russia's border.[73][74]
Beginning in 2019, Russia issued over 650,000 internal Russian passports to Donbas residents,[93] which the Ukrainian government viewed as a step towards the annexation of the region.[94] On 14 September 2020, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy approved a new national security strategy for the country, signaling Ukraine's intent to foster a stronger relationship with NATO "with the aim of membership in [the group]."[95][96][97] On 24 March 2021, Zelenskyy signed Decree No. 117/2021 approving the government's strategy for the "de-occupation and reintegration" of Crimea, including Sevastapol.[98] The decree complemented the activities of the already existing Crimean Platform while also mentioning other means for regaining control of the region, including through potential military force.[99][100] The next day, Zelenskyy enacted the National Security and Defence Council's decision on Ukraine's military security strategy, protecting the country from external threats through deterrence, internal stability in times of crisis, and cooperation, particularly with the EU and NATO.[101][102][103] The decree additionally described Russia as a "military adversary" which "carries out armed aggression against Ukraine... [and] uses military, political, economic, informational and psychological, space, cyber and other means that threaten [the] independence, state sovereignty and territorial integrity" of the country.[104][105]
In Russia, Putin's close adviser Nikolai Patrushev was a leading figure in updating the country's national security strategy, published in May 2021.[106] It states that Russia may use "forceful methods" to "thwart or avert unfriendly actions that threaten the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Russian Federation."[107][108] Russia has said that a possible Ukrainian accession to NATO and NATO enlargement in general threaten its national security.[109][110][111] In turn, Ukraine and other European countries neighboring Russia have accused Putin of attempting to restore the Russian Empire/Soviet Union and of pursuing aggressive militaristic policies.[112][113][114][115][116]
Shortly after the annexation of Crimea in 2014, Ukraine blocked the flow of the North Crimean Canal, which had supplied 85 percent of Crimea's water.[117] Crimea's reservoirs were subsequently depleted and water shortages ensued, with water reportedly only being available for three to five hours a day in 2021.[118]The New York Times cited senior American officials mentioning that securing Crimea's water supply could be an objective of a Russian invasion.[119][120]
On 21 February 2021, the Russian Defence Ministry announced the deployment of 3,000 paratroopers to the border for "large-scale exercises".[132][133] The announcement was preceded by President Zelenskyy's decision on 2 February to implement recommendations from the country's National Security and Defence Council, which were intended to crackdown on Russian propaganda in Ukraine.[134] Amongst the measures enacted by Zelenskyy were sanctions on Opposition Platform — For Life partyPeople's DeputiesViktor Medvedchuk and Taras Kozak, and a national ban on multiple pro-Russian television channels, including 112 Ukraine, NewsOne, and ZIK.[135][134] Medvedchuk, who also had alleged links to the banned media outlets, was a leading pro-Russian Ukrainian opposition politician and tycoon with close personal ties to Vladimir Putin.[136][137] An analysis by Time published in February 2022 cited the event as the start of the Russian military buildup near Ukraine.[138] According to an April 2023 investigative report by the Russian website Vertska, the banning of Medvedchuk's channels was the final catalyst for Putin deciding to take military action against Ukraine. The report further claimed that he made the decision in near-total secrecy between February and March 2021, with Russian businessman and close friend Yury Kovalchuk one of the very few people aware of Putin's plans at the time; the anti-Western Kovalchuk supposedly convinced Putin that he should act whilst Europe remained distracted by internal political divisions.[139]
On 3 March, Suspilne claimed separatists from the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) reported they had been granted permission to use "preemptive fire for destruction" on Ukrainian military positions.[140] On 16 March, a State Border Guard Service of Ukraine (SBGS) border patrol in Sumy spotted a Russian Mil Mi-8 helicopter coming approximately 50 metres (160 ft) into Ukrainian territory before heading back into Russian airspace.[141] Ten days later, Russian troops fired mortars at Ukrainian positions near the village of Shumy in the Donbas, killing four Ukrainian servicemen.[142] Russia refused to renew the ceasefire in Donbas on 1 April.[143][144]
Beginning from 16 March, NATO started a series of military exercises known as Defender-Europe 2021.[r] The military exercise, one of the largest NATO-led military exercises held in Europe in decades, included near-simultaneous operations across over 30 training areas in 12 countries, involving 28,000 troops from 27 nations.[148][149] Russia criticised NATO for holding Defender Europe 2021,[150] and deployed troops to its western borders for military exercises in response to NATO's military activities. The deployment led to Russia having a sizable troop buildup along the Russo-Ukrainian border by mid-April.[151][152][153] A Ukrainian estimate placed the deployment at approximately 40,000 Russian forces in occupied Crimea and the eastern portion of the Russo-Ukrainian border. The German government subsequently condemned the deployment as an act of provocation.[154]
Nearly a week later on 30 March, Ukrainian Commander-in-ChiefColonel GeneralRuslan Khomchak revealed intelligence reports suggesting a military buildup by Russia close to Ukraine in preparations for the Zapad Exercises.[155][156] The buildup consisted of 28 Russian battalion tactical groups (BTGs) situated primarily along the Russo-Ukrainian border in Rostov, Bryansk, and Voronezh Oblasts, as well as Russian-occupied Crimea,[157] and was ultimately expected to increase to 53 BTGs.[158][159] It was estimated that over 60,000 Russian troops were stationed in Crimea and Donbas,[160] with 2,000 military advisors and instructors in separatist-controlled Donbas alone.[161][162] Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov claimed the military movements "[were] not of any concern" for neighbouring countries, and that the decisions for deployment were made to address matters of Russia's "national security".[163]
Between late March and early April 2021, significant quantities of weapons and equipment from various regions of Russia, including the far-eastern parts of Siberia, were transported towards the Russo-Ukrainian border and into Crimea.[164][165] Unofficial Russian sources, such as the pro-Russian Telegram channel Military Observer, published a video depicting the flight of a group of Russian Kamov Ka-52 and Mil Mi-28 attack helicopters. It was emphasized by the original sources that the flight had allegedly taken place on the Russo-Ukrainian border.[166]
Russian and pro-Kremlin media alleged on 3 April 2021 that a Ukrainian drone attack had caused the death of a child in separatist-controlled Donbas;[167] however, no further details were given surrounding the incident.[168]Vyacheslav Volodin, speaker of the Russian State Duma, believed that Ukrainian leaders should be "held responsible for the death", while proposing to exclude Ukraine from the Council of Europe.[169] On 5 April, Ukrainian representatives of the Joint Centre of Control and Coordination (JCCC) sent a note to the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission in Ukraine regarding pro-Russian intentions to falsify the accusations.[170] The next day, the mission confirmed the death of a child in Russian-occupied Donbas but failed to establish a link between the purported "Ukrainian drone strike" and the child's death.[171] On 6 April 2021, two Ukrainian servicemen were killed in Donetsk Oblast: one by shelling at a Ukrainian army position near the town of Nevelske and another near the village of Stepne by an unknown explosive device.[172] Following the deaths, Zelenskyy declared that Ukraine would not respond to "provocations" by separatists forces.[173] Due to the shelling, the water pumping station in the "gray-zone" between the villages of Vasylivka and Kruta Balka in South Donbas was de-energized, cutting off the water supply to over 50 settlements.[174]
Russia moved ships between the Caspian Sea and Black Sea, with the transfer including several landing craft and artillery boats.[175][176]Interfax reported on 8 April that the crews and ships of the Caspian Flotilla would perform the final naval exercises in cooperation with the Black Sea Fleet.[177] On 10 April 2021, Ukraine invoked Paragraph 16 of the Vienna Document and initiated a meeting in the OSCE on the surge of Russian troops near the Russo-Ukrainian border and Russian-occupied Crimea.[178] Ukraine's initiative was supported by several countries but the Russian delegation failed to appear at the meeting and refused to provide explanations.[179] On 13 April 2021, Ukrainian consul Oleksandr Sosoniuk was detained in Saint Petersburg[180] and later expelled by the FSB for allegedly "receiving confidential information" during a meeting with a Russian citizen.[181][182] In response, on 19 April, Yevhen Chernikov, a senior Russian diplomat of the Russian embassy in Kyiv, was declared by Ukraine a persona non grata and ordered to leave the country within 72 hours.[183] On 14 April 2021, in a meeting in Crimea, Nikolai Patrushev, Secretary of the Security Council of Russia accused Ukrainian special services of trying to organise "terrorist attacks and sabotage" on the peninsula.[184]
On the night of 14 to 15 April 2021, a naval confrontation took place in the Sea of Azov, 40 kilometres (25 mi) from the Kerch Strait, between three Ukrainian Gyurza-M-class artillery boats and six vessels from the Coast Guard of the Border Service of the FSB.[185] The Ukrainian artillery boats were escorting civilian ships when the incident occurred. It was reported that Ukrainian ships threatened to use airborne weapons to deter provocations from FSB vessels. The incident ended without any casualties.[186] The following day, Russia announced the closure of parts of the Black Sea to warships and vessels of other countries until October, under the pretext of military exercises.[187] The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned the decision as a "gross violation of the right of navigational freedoms" guaranteed by the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.[188] According to the convention, Russia must not "obstruct maritime passages of the International strait to ports" in the Sea of Azov.[189] According to John Kirby, Pentagon Press Secretary, Russia had concentrated more troops near the Russo-Ukrainian border than in 2014.[190] Additionally, temporary restrictions by Russia on flights over parts of Crimea and the Black Sea were reportedly imposed from 20 to 24 April 2021.[191]
Senior U.S. Defense Department officials reported on 5 May 2021 that Russia had only withdrawn a few thousand troops since the previous military buildup. Despite the withdrawal of several Russian units, vehicles and equipment were left in place, leading to fears that a re-deployment might occur.[119] The officials estimated over 80,000 Russian troops still remained at the Russo-Ukrainian border by early May.[119] Members of the U.S. intelligence community began discussing the serious potential for a Russian invasion during the spring and fall of 2021, noting the massive continued deployment of military assets and logistics far beyond those used for standard exercises.[194]
On 2 September 2021, Russia refused to extend the mandate of the OSCE mission at the "Gukovo" and "Donetsk" border checkpoints past 30 September.[195]
On 11 October 2021, Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of Russia, published an article in Kommersant in which he argued that Ukraine was a "vassal" of the West and that, therefore, it was pointless for Russia to attempt to hold a dialogue with the Ukrainian authorities, whom he described as "weak", "ignorant" and "unreliable". Medvedev concluded that Russia should do nothing in regard to Ukraine and wait until a Ukrainian government comes to power that is genuinely interested in improving relations with Russia, adding "Russia knows how to wait. We are patient people."[196] The Kremlin later specified that Medvedev's article "runs in unison" with Russia's view of the current Ukrainian government.[197]
In November 2021, the Russian Defence Ministry described the deployment of U.S. warships to the Black Sea as a "threat to regional security and strategic stability." The ministry said in a statement, "The real goal behind the U.S. activities in the Black Sea region is exploring the theater of operations in case Kyiv attempts to settle the conflict in the southeast by force."[198]
In early November 2021, reports of Russian military buildups prompted American officials to warn their European allies that Russia could be considering a potential invasion of Ukraine, while a number of experts and commentators believed that Putin was seeking a stronger hand for further negotiations with the West.[201][202]Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR MO) estimated that the figure had risen to 90,000 by 2November, including forces from the 8th and 20th Guards, and the 4th and 6th Air and Air Defence Forces Army.[203]
On 13 November 2021, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Russia had again amassed 100,000 troops near the Russo-Ukrainian border,[204] higher than an American assessment of approximately 70,000.[205] On the same day, in an interview on Russia-1, Putin denied any possibility of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, labelling the notions as "alarmist", while simultaneously accusing NATO of undergoing unscheduled naval drills at the Black Sea.[206] The Russian troops had been told that it was just an exercise.[207] Eight days later, the chief of the HUR MOU, Kyrylo Budanov, said that Russian troop deployment had approached 92,000.[208] Budanov accused Russia of fomenting several protests against COVID-19 vaccination in Kyiv to destabilise the country.[209]
Between late-November and early-December 2021, as Russian and Ukrainian officials traded accusations of massive troop deployments in Donbas, Ukrainian Minister of Foreign AffairsDmytro Kuleba on 25 November admonished Russia against a "new attack on Ukraine", which he said "would cost [Russia] dear",[210][211][212][213][214] while Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on 21 November called the accusations "[the] hysteria" that "[wa]s being intentionally whipped up" and said that, in their opinion, it was Ukraine who was planning aggressive actions against Donbas.[215][216][217]
On 3 December 2021 Ukrainian Minister of DefenceOleksii Reznikov, spoke of the possibility of a "large-scale escalation" by Russia during the end of January 2022, during a session at the country's national parliament, the Verkhovna Rada.[218] Reznikov estimated that the Russian military buildup consisted of 94,300 troops.[219] In early December 2021, an analysis conducted by Janes concluded that major elements of the Russian 41st Army (headquartered at Novosibirsk) and the 1st Guards Tank Army (normally deployed around Moscow) had been re-positioned to the west, reinforcing the Russian 20th and 8th Guards armies that were already positioned closer to the Russo-Ukrainian border. Additional Russian forces were reported to have moved to Crimea, reinforcing Russian naval and ground units that were previously deployed there.[220]U.S. intelligence officials warned that Russia was planning an upcoming major military offensive into Ukraine scheduled to take place in January 2022.[221] A report released in November 2023 by the international NGO Global Rights found that Russia's defense contractor began buying trucks and three 170-meter bulk carriers to transport grain in December 2021, suggesting earlier Russian planning to loot Ukraine's food supplies.[222]
Russia began a slow evacuation of its embassy staff at Kyiv in January 2022. The motives for the evacuation were, at the time, unknown and subjected to multiple speculations.[223] By mid-January, an intelligence assessment produced by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence estimated that Russia was in its final stages of completing a military buildup at the Russo-Ukrainian border, amassing 127,000 troops in the region. Among the troops, 106,000 were land forces, with the remainder comprising naval and air forces. In addition, 35,000 Russian-backed separatist forces and another 3,000 Russian forces were reported to be present in rebel-held eastern Ukraine.[224] The assessment estimated that Russia had deployed 36 Iskandershort-range ballistic missile (SRBM) systems near the border, many stationed within striking distance of Kyiv. The assessment also noted intensified Russian intelligence activity.[224] An analysis conducted by the Atlantic Council on 20 January concluded that Russia had deployed additional critical combat capabilities to the region.[225]
Beginning on 17 January, major Russian military units were relocated and deployed to Belarus under the auspices of previously planned joint military exercises to be held in February that year. Namely, the headquarters of the Eastern Military District was deployed to Belarus along with combat units drawn from the District's 5th, 29th, 35th, and 36th Combined Arms Army, 76th Guards Air Assault Division, 98th Guards Airborne Division and the Pacific Fleet's155th Naval Infantry Brigade.[233][232] Ukrainian and American officials believed that Russia would attempt to use Belarus as a platform to attack Ukraine from the north, due to the close proximity of the Belarusian–Ukrainian border to the capital Kyiv.[234][235][236][237]
On 28 January, Reuters reported that three anonymous U.S. officials had revealed that Russia had stockpiled medical supplies. Two of the three officials claimed that the movements were detected in "recent weeks", adding to fears of conflict.[238] This was preceded by a report on 19 January, in which U.S. President Joe Biden said his "guess" was that Russia "w[ould] move in" to Ukraine although Putin would pay "a serious and dear price" for an invasion and "would regret it".[239][240] Biden further asserted, "Russia will be held accountable if it invades. And it depends on what it does."[241] In an interview with The Washington Post the next day, Zelenskyy warned that Russian forces could invade and take control of regions in eastern Ukraine. He also argued that an invasion would lead to a large-scale war between Ukraine and Russia.[242]
February2022
On 5 February 2022, two anonymous U.S. officials reported that Russia had assembled 83 battalion tactical groups, estimated to be 70 percent of its combat capabilities, for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and predicted that a hypothetical invasion would result in 8,000 to 35,000 military casualties and 25,000 to 50,000 civilian casualties. The officials anticipated that the possible launch window could start on 15 February and persist until the end of March, when extremely cold weather would freeze roads and assist in the movement of mechanised units.[243]
On 8 February, a fleet of six Russian landing ships, namely the Korolev, the Minsk, and Kaliningrad from the Baltic Fleet, and the Petr Morgunov, the Georgiy Pobedonosets, and the Olenegorskiy Gornyak from the Northern Fleet, reportedly sailed to the Black Sea for naval exercises. The fleet arrived at Sevastopol two days later,[244] with Russia announcing two major military exercises following their arrival. The first was a naval exercise on the Black Sea,[245] which was protested by Ukraine as it resulted in Russia blocking naval routes in the Kerch Strait, the Sea of Azov, and the Black Sea.[246][247] The second consisted of a joint military exercise between Belarus and Russia held in regions close to the Belarusian–Ukrainian border, involving 30,000 Russian troops and almost all of the Belarusian armed forces.[248] Responding to the latter, Ukraine held separate military exercises of their own, involving 10,000 Ukrainian troops. Both exercises were scheduled for 10 days.[249]
While the U.S. had rejected Russia's demand to keep Ukraine out of NATO in January,[250] by early February, the Biden administration had reportedly shifted its position, offering to prevent Ukraine's NATO accession if Russia backed away from the imminent invasion.[251] Referring to unspecified intelligence, U.S. National Security AdvisorJake Sullivan stated an attack could begin at any moment prior to 20 February, the conclusion of the 2022 Winter Olympics at Beijing.[252] Separately, the media published several reports based on acquired U.S. intelligence that had been briefed to several allies with specific references to 16 February as a potential starting date for a ground invasion.[253][254] Following these announcements, the U.S. ordered most of its diplomatic staff and all military instructors in Ukraine to evacuate.[255] Numerous countries, including Japan, Germany, Australia, and Israel also urged their citizens to leave Ukraine immediately.[256] The next day, KLM suspended its flights to Ukraine, while other airlines shifted their flight schedules to limit exposure across the country.[257] By 11 February, Biden had issued a public warning to Americans to leave Ukraine as soon as possible.[258]
A Russian military helicopter heading south from Minsk, 23 February 2022 (note the "V" symbol)
On 10 February, the Baltic states invoked provisions of the Vienna Document requesting an explanation from Belarus regarding the unusual military activities.[259] The move was followed by Ukraine a day after, where it too invoked Chapter III (risk reduction) of the Vienna Document, requesting Russia to provide "detailed explanations on military activities in the areas adjacent to the territory of Ukraine and in the temporarily occupied Crimea".[260] The request was refused, with Russia asserting that it had no obligation to share the information, although it allowed a Swiss inspection team to enter the territories of Voronezh and Belgorod.[261] On 12 February, the Russian cruise missile submarine Rostov-on-Don (B-237) transited the Dardanelles on its way back to the Black Sea. The Russian Black Sea Fleet conducted live missile and gun firing exercises from 13 to 19 February 2022.[262] In response to Russian military activities, Ukraine requested on 13 February that an emergency meeting within the OSCE be held within the following 48 hours, at which Russia was expected to provide a response.[263]
On 14 February, a telephone conversation was made by Reznikov and his Belarusian counterpart, Viktor Khrenin, where they agreed on mutual confidence-building and transparency measures. These measures included visits by both defence ministers to their respective country's military exercises (Reznikov to the Russo–Belarusian Allied Resolve 2022 exercise, and Khrenin to the Ukrainian Zametil 2022 exercise).[264] The emergency meeting of the OSCE requested by Ukraine was held on 15 February. However, the Russian delegation to the OSCE was absent from the meeting.[265]
On 14 February, Shoigu said units from Russia's Southern and Westernmilitary districts had begun returning to their barracks following the completion of "exercises" near Ukraine.[266] However, in a press conference held the subsequent day, Biden commented that they could not verify such reports.[267]NATO Secretary GeneralJens Stoltenberg refuted Russian claims of retreating troops, stating on 16 February that Russia had continued the military buildup.[268] The Russia Foreign Ministry called earlier Western warnings of a Russia invasion on this day "anti-Russian hysteria"[269] while President Zelenskyy called for a "day of unity" in anticipation of Russian threats.[270]
Top officials from the U.S. and NATO reported on 17 February that the threat of an invasion remained as Russia still actively looked for a casus belli for the invasion, with attempts being made to conduct a false flag operation.[271][272][273] On 18 February, Biden announced that he was convinced that Putin had made a decision to invade Ukraine.[274] On 19 February, two Ukrainian soldiers were killed while another five were wounded by artillery fire from separatists.[275] On 20 February, the Belarusian Ministry of Defence announced the continuation of the Allied Resolve 2022 military exercises. According to Khrenin, it was due to the "escalation in military activity along the external borders of the Union State and the deterioration of the situation in Donbas".[276][277] On the same day, several news outlets reported that U.S. intelligence assessed that Russian commanders had been ordered to proceed with the invasion.[278][279]
On 26 November 2021, Zelenskyy accused the Russian government and Ukrainian billionaire Rinat Akhmetov of backing a plan to overthrow the Ukrainian government.[280] Russia subsequently denied the claims.[281][282] On 10 January 2022, the SBU announced that it had arrested a Russian military intelligence agent who was attempting to recruit operatives to conduct attacks at Odesa.[283] Three days later, Ukraine was struck by a cyberattack that affected the official websites of several Ukrainian government ministries. It was later suspected that Russian hackers might be responsible for the incident.[284]
The HUR MOU accused Russian special services of preparing "provocations" against Russian soldiers stationed at Transnistria, a breakaway unrecognised state internationally considered part of Moldova, to create a casus belli for a Russian invasion of Ukraine.[285] The Biden administration later revealed that the Russian government deployed Russian operatives, trained in urban warfare and explosives,[286] as saboteurs to stage a fabricated attack against Russian proxy separatists at eastern Ukraine, to provide Russia with another pretext for an invasion.[287] The Russian government denied the claims.[288] On 3 February, the U.S. said that Russia was planning to use a fabricated video showing a staged Ukrainian "attack" as a pretext for a further invasion of Ukraine.[289][290] The Russian government denied any plans to orchestrate a pretext for an invasion.[291]
U.S. intelligence sources warned in mid-February that Russia had compiled "lists of Ukrainian political figures and other prominent individuals to be targeted for either arrest or assassination" in the event of an invasion,[292] while U.S. ambassador Bathsheba Nell Crocker wrote that Russia "will likely use lethal measures to disperse peaceful protests[...] from civilian populations".[293]
According to a detained agent who was set to participate in the coup, Russia was to send an appeal to Ukrainian authorities asking them to surrender; if the appeal was declined, pro-Russian agents would stage a coup. The coup would begin by creating false-flag incidents in Kyiv and along Ukraine's border with Transnistria to create a pretext for invasion.[306] After the invasion started, agents would seize the administrative buildings of multiple cities, install pro-Russian officials, and ultimately surrender and transfer them to Russian troops. To further destabilise the situation, mass riots with the use of fake blood, clashing with law enforcement officers, terrorist attacks, and the assassination of President Zelenskyy were also planned.[307][308][295][297] After the coup, the Verkhovna Rada would be dissolved and replaced by a pro-Russian "People's Rada", playing the role of a puppet government on Russian-occupied territory and newly created "people's republics" in Western Ukraine.[304][302] The agent also claimed a pro-Russian president was planned to be installed in Ukraine.[309][310][311][301]
On 22 January 2022, the UK Foreign Office corroborated parts of the agent's account, stating that Russia was preparing a plan to "install a pro-Russian leader in Kyiv as it considers whether to invade and occupy Ukraine,"[312] with Yevhen Murayev, a former member of the Ukrainian parliament, alleged to be one of Moscow's potential candidates.[313][314] The Russian Foreign Ministry denied the claims, calling the statements "disinformation", and accusing the UK as well as NATO of "escalating tensions" around Ukraine.[315][316][317] Murayev, who had stated in a Facebook post on 23 January 2022 that "Ukraine needs new politicians", dismissed the allegation as "nonsense", saying he had already been "under Russian sanctions for four years".[312]
Russian accusations of genocide in eastern Ukraine
The U.S. embassy in Ukraine described Russian genocide claims as a "reprehensible falsehood",[331] while U.S. State Department SpokespersonNed Price said the Russian government was making such claims as "an excuse for invading Ukraine".[323] On 18 February, Russian Ambassador to the U.S. Anatoly Antonov replied to a question about U.S. officials, who doubted the fact of the genocide of Russians in Donbas, by posting a statement on the Embassy's Facebook page that said: 'This causes outrage and indignation. [...] We see here not just double standards of the United States, but quite a primitive and crude cynicism. [...] The main geopolitical goal of the United States is to push Russia back to the East as far possible. To that end, a policy to force the Russian-speaking population out of their current places of residence is needed. Therefore, Americans prefer not only to ignore the attempts of forced assimilation of Russians in Ukraine, but also strongly condone them with political and military support."[332][333]
Ukrainian defences
In preparation for a possible renewed Russian invasion, the Ukrainian Ground Forces announced a meeting in April 2021 regarding territorial defences to strengthen and protect the nation's borders and critical facilities, and to combat sabotage and reconnaissance groups in southern Ukraine.[334] During the same month, Zelenskyy visited Ukrainian defensive positions in Donbas.[335] According to Russia, Ukraine deployed 125,000 troops to the Donbas conflict zone in December 2021.[336]
The United States estimated in December 2021 that Russia could assemble over 175,000 troops to invade Ukraine.[337] Oleksii Reznikov, Ukrainian Minister of Defence, stated that "we have 250,000 official [...] members of our army. Plus, I said 400,000 veterans and 200,000 reservists. 175,000 [is] not enough to go to Ukraine."[338] Reznikov claimed that Russia could launch a large-scale attack on Ukraine in late-January 2022.[339]
Ukraine's Territorial Defence Forces (the reserve component of the Ground Forces established after the 2014 conflict) recruited additional citizens and trained them in urban guerrilla tactics and firearms use.[340] Such insurgency tactics, as reported by The New York Times, could support a resistance movement if the Russian military were able to overwhelm the Ukrainian military.[341]Andrii Zahorodniuk, former Ukrainian Minister of Defence, wrote in January that in the case of a Russian invasion, the Russian forces would likely destroy "key elements of the country's military infrastructure" and will be able to "advance deep into Ukrainian territory", but would face difficulty in securing it. Zahorodniuk further stated, "Russian occupation forces will face highly motivated opponents fighting in familiar surroundings."[342]
In response to expectations of a renewed invasion with Russia's buildup of over 100,000 troops, some NATO member nations in January 2022 began providing military aid, including lethal weapons, with the U.S. giving approval to its NATO allies to send anti-armour missiles and other U.S.-made weapons.[343] The first U.S. shipment of some 90 tonnes (200,000 lb) of lethal weapons arrived in Ukraine on 22 January 2022.[344] The U.S. provided FGM-148 Javelinantitank missiles, anti-armour artillery (including M141 Bunker Defeat Munitions),[345]heavy machine guns, small arms, ammunition, secure radio systems, medical equipment and spare parts.[346][347]U.S. Secretary of DefenseLloyd Austin and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of StaffMark Milley threatened US support for an anti-Russian insurgency within Ukraine, similar to the CIA's assistance to anti-Soviet mujahideen rebels in Afghanistan in the 1980s.[348]
In December 2021, the U.S. government approved additional defence aid for US$200 million to Ukraine.[349] This was in addition to previous aid packages to Ukraine, making the total defence aid given in 2021 worth US$650 million.[350] The U.S. also announced plans to transfer Mil Mi-17 helicopters to Ukraine, which had been previously flown by the Afghan Air Force;[351] the first helicopters were supplied on 20 February 2022.[352] In January 2022, the Biden administration granted permission to the Baltic nations to transfer American-made equipment to Ukraine.[347][353][354][355][356] Estonia donated Javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine, while Latvia and Lithuania provided Stinger air defence systems and associated equipment.[11] On 19 January, the Biden administration provided $200 million in additional security aid to Ukraine[232][357][358] while on February 28, it approved the first deliveries of American-made FIM-92 Stingersurface-to-air missiles to the country.[359][360]
Other NATO members also provided aid to Ukraine, with the UK and Canada bolstering pre-existing military training programs in January 2022. The British deployed additional military trainers and provided light anti-armour defence systems, while the Canadians deployed a small special forces delegation to aid Ukraine.[347] On 17 January, British Defence SecretaryBen Wallace announced that Britain had supplied Ukraine with 1,100 short-range anti-tank missiles.[361] On 20 January, Sky News reported that 2,000 short-range anti-tank NLAW missiles had been delivered via numerous Royal Air ForceC-17 transport aircraft between the UK and Ukraine.[362] On 21 January, the UK Defence Journal reported that there had been an increase in Royal Air Force RC-135W Rivet Joint surveillance aircraft being deployed to monitor Russian forces on the Russo-Ukrainian border.[363]
In addition, multiple EU members individually gave support to Ukraine, with the Danish government announcing on 16 January 2022 that they would provide Ukraine with a €22 million (US$24.8 million) defence package.[364] This was followed by a public statement on 21 January by the Dutch Minister of Foreign AffairsWopke Hoekstra who said that the Netherlands was ready to deliver "defensive military support" and explained that Ukraine request to the country for arms assistance the previous day was supported by majority in parliament.[365][366] On 31 January, Poland announced its decision to supply Ukraine with lethal weapons.[367] It intended to provide significant quantities of light ammunition, artillery shells, light mortar systems, reconnaissance drones, and Polish-made PiorunMANPADS.[368] A trilateral pact was launched between Poland, Ukraine and the United Kingdom on 17 February 2022 with the aim of responding to European security threats and deepening bilateral relationships in matters of cyber security, energy independence and countering disinformation.[369][370]
U.S. paratroopers of the Immediate Response Force were deployed to eastern Europe to reinforce NATO's eastern flank amid the crisis in February 2022.[371]
The first of 2,000 newly deployed U.S. soldiers to Europe arrived in Germany and Poland on 5 February, part of the U.S.'s attempt to bolster NATO's eastern flank during Russia's military buildup.[378] Two days later, British Prime Minister Johnson said the country would not "flinch" as he prepared to deploy Royal Marines, RAF aircraft, and Royal Navy warships to eastern Europe.[379] On 11 February, the U.S. announced an additional deployment of 3,000 troops to Poland and sent F-15 jets to Romania.[380] Further deployments included four Danish F-16 fighter jets being sent to Lithuania, in addition to a frigate travelling to the Baltic Sea.[377] The chief of staff of the Belgian army also stated that the country was ready to send more forces to NATO's eastern allies.[381]
Fighting in the Donbas escalated significantly on 17 February 2022.[382][383][232] There was a sharp increase in artillery shelling by Russian-led militants in Donbas, which Ukraine and its allies considered to be an attempt to provoke the Ukrainian army or create a pretext for invading.[384][385][386] While the daily number of attacks over the first six weeks of 2022 was 2 to 5,[304] the Ukrainian military reported 60 attacks on 17 February. Russian state media also reported over 20 artillery attacks on separatist positions the same day.[304]Russian separatistsshelled a kindergarten at Stanytsia Luhanska using artillery, injuring three civilians.[387] The Luhansk People's Republic said that its forces had been attacked by the Ukrainian government with mortars, grenade launchers, and machine gun fire.[388][389]
On 18 February, the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic ordered emergency mandatory evacuations of civilians from their respective capital cities, although it has been noted that full evacuations would take months to accomplish.[390][391][392][393] A BBC analysis found that the video announcing the "emergency" evacuation had been filmed two days prior to its purported date, indicated by its metadata.[394] Russian state media also reported a "car bombing", allegedly targeting the separatist government headquarters in Donetsk.[395]
On 21 February, Russia's FSB said that Ukrainian shelling had destroyed an FSB border facility 150 m from the Russia–Ukraine border in Rostov Oblast.[396] Separately, the press service of the Southern Military District said that Russian forces had killed a group of five saboteurs that morning near the village of Mityakinskaya, Rostov Oblast. The press release alleged that the saboteurs had penetrated the border from Ukraine in two infantry fighting vehicles, which were destroyed in the act.[397] Ukraine denied being involved in both incidents and called them a false flag.[398] Additionally, two Ukrainian soldiers and a civilian were reported killed by shelling in the village of Zaitseve, 30 km north of Donetsk.[399] The Ukrainian News Agency reported that the Luhansk Thermal Power Plant, located close to the contact line, was forced to shut down on 21 February after being shelled by unknown forces.[400][401] Several analysts, including the investigative website Bellingcat, published evidence that many of the claimed attacks, explosions, and evacuations in Donbas were staged by Russia.[402][403][404]
Recognition of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics
Vladimir Putin, alongside Denis Pushilin and Leonid Pasechnik, signing decrees recognising the independence of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics on 21 February 2022
On 21 February, the leaders of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics, respectively Denis Pushilin and Leonid Pasechnik, requested that Putin officially recognise the republics' independence; both leaders also proposed signing a treaty on friendship and cooperation with Russia, including on military cooperation.[409] Concluding the extraordinary session of the Security Council of Russia held on that day, Putin said that the decision on recognition thereof would be taken that day.[410]
The request was endorsed by Minister of Defence Sergey Shoigu.[411] Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said the government had been laying the groundwork for such move for "many months already".[412] Later that day, Putin signed decrees of recognition of the republics. Additionally, treaties "on friendship, co-operation and mutual assistance" between Russia and the republics were inked.[413] Following the recognition, Putin ordered Russian forces to enter both separatist republics.[414]
In response to the recognition of the two breakaway republics, Western countries rolled out sanctions against Russia.[421][422][423] On 22 February 2022, British prime minister Boris Johnson announced sanctions on five Russian banks, namely Rossiya Bank, Industrialny Sberegatelny Bank, General Bank, Promsvyazbank, and Black Sea Bank, as well as three billionaire associates of Putin (Gennady Timchenko, Boris Romanovich Rotenberg, and Igor Rotenberg).[424][425] German chancellor Scholz announced a halt to the certification process of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.[426]
EU foreign ministers blacklisted all members of the Russian Duma who voted in favour of the recognition of the breakaway regions, banned EU investors from trading in Russian state bonds, and targeted imports and exports with separatist entities.[427] U.S. president Joe Biden announced sanctions on banks VEB.RF and Promsvyazbank and comprehensive sanctions on Russia's sovereign debt.[428]
On 21 February 2022, following the recognition of the Donetsk and Luhansk republics, Putin ordered additional Russian troops into Donbas, in what Russia called a "peacekeeping mission".[429][430][431] Later on the same day, several independent media outlets confirmed that Russian forces were entering Donbas.[432][433][434] On 22 February, the United States declared this movement an "invasion".[435] On the same day, the Federation Council unanimously authorised Putin to use military force outside Russia.[55] Zelenskyy ordered reservists called up, while not committing to general mobilisation yet.[436]
On 6 February, U.S. officials warned that Kyiv could fall within days and prompt a refugee crisis in Europe.[437] On 23 February, an unidentified senior U.S. defense official was quoted by news media as saying that "80 percent" of Russian forces assigned and arrayed along Ukraine's border were ready for battle and that a ground incursion could commence at any moment.[438] On the same day, the Ukrainian parliament approved Zelenskyy's decree on the introduction of a state of emergency from 00:00 on 24 February 2022 across the territory of all Ukraine, except the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, for a period of 30 days.[439] The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs recommended that Ukrainian citizens refrain from travel to Russia and those living in Russia leave the country "immediately".[440][441]
At about 4 a.m. Moscow time on 24 February 2022, President Putin announced the beginning of a "special military operation" in the Donbas region.[442][443][444] Shortly after, reports of big explosions came from multiple cities in central and eastern Ukraine, including Kyiv and Kharkiv.[445][446] The U.S. announced that it would not send its combat troops into Ukraine to intervene militarily due to fears that it may provoke full-scale war between the United States and Russia.[447] Many observers at the time believed that Russian military operations in Ukraine would inevitably lead to the capitulation of the Ukrainian government and end to the country's national sovereignty.[448][449] This proved to be untrue, with Russia unable to eliminate the Ukrainian government following the failure of the Russian offensive on Kyiv,[450] and experiencing major setbacks as a result of Ukrainian counteroffensives in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions.[451][452][453]
Pre-invasion day panorama from southeastern Ukraine, 23 February 2022
U.S. President Joe Biden holding a video call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on 7 December 2021
Between 2 and 3 November 2021, CIA directorWilliam Burns met with senior Russian intelligence officials in Moscow to convey to the Kremlin Biden's concern about the situation on the Russo-Ukrainian border. Burns and U.S. Ambassador to Russia John Sullivan met in Moscow with Putin's national security adviser Nikolai Patrushev and informed him that they knew about Russia's invasion plans.[454] Burns warned that if Putin proceeded down this path, the West would respond with severe consequences for Russia. Sullivan recounted that Patrushev was undeterred, "supremely confident".[455]CNN reported that Burns spoke by phone with Zelenskyy following the meeting in Moscow. Simultaneously, a high-ranking U.S. Department of State official was dispatched to Ukraine.[456]
On 15 November, acting German Foreign MinisterHeiko Maas and French Foreign MinisterJean-Yves Le Drian expressed concern in a joint communique about "Russian movements of troops and hardware near Ukraine", calling on both sides to adopt and maintain "a posture of restraint".[457] At the same time, Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby confirmed that the United States continued to observe "unusual military activity" by Russia near the Russo-Ukrainian border.[458]U.S. Secretary of StateAntony Blinken discussed reports of "Russian military activity" in the area with Le Drian.[459] On 16 November, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters that it was important NATO "doesn't increase tensions, but we have to be clear-eyed, we need to be realistic about the challenges we face". Stoltenberg added that the alliance saw an "unusual concentration" of Russian forces, which Russia might be willing to use "to conduct aggressive actions against Ukraine".[460]
In early November 2021, Ukrainian intelligence assessed the information about the transfer of additional Russian troops to the Ukrainian borders as "an element of psychological pressure." A week later, the Office of the President of Ukraine acknowledged that Russia was building up "specific groups of troops" near the border. Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba urged the French and German governments to prepare for a possible military scenario of Russia's actions against Ukraine.[461]
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in Brussels, 16 December 2021
On 15 November, Zelenskyy and the head of the European Council (EUCO) Charles Michel discussed "the security situation along the borders of Ukraine." On the same day, Kuleba held talks on the same issues in Brussels. Ukrainian defence minister Oleksii Reznikov went to Washington D.C., where on 18 November he met with U.S. secretary of defense Lloyd Austin. On 16 November, British defence secretary Ben Wallace visited Kyiv.[461]
Israel maintains a strong relationship with both Ukraine and Russia, and sometimes acts as an interlocutor between the two. In April 2021, Zelenskyy asked the Israeli Prime MinisterBenjamin Netanyahu to mediate the situation between himself and Putin. Israel raised the idea with Russia, who declined.[462] In a meeting at Kyiv in October with Zelenskyy, Israeli PresidentIsaac Herzog told Zelenskyy that the new Israeli government under Prime Minister Naftali Bennett was willing to resume efforts at Ukrainian-Russian mediation. Bennett raised the idea in a meeting with Putin two weeks later at Sochi, but Putin declined.[462]
In late January, the United States was again discussing sanctions with European allies in case of a Russian invasion.[461] Biden said the sanctions would be "swift and severe, including a "game over" strategy of targeting Russian banks, bond markets and the assets of elites close to Putin.[46] This approach was also criticised, and the proposed cut-off of Russian banks from the Visa, Mastercard, and SWIFT payment systems was withdrawn. The challenge for U.S. and NATO vis-à-vis Russia is the creation of credible deterrence with a plan for a de-escalatory sequence, including a reduction in inflammatory rhetoric, Russian troop withdrawals from the Russo-Ukrainian border, renewed Donbas peace talks, as well as a temporary halt on military exercises at the Black and Baltic Seas by the U.S., NATO or Russia.[463]
A Normandy Format meeting was planned between Russian, Ukrainian, German and French senior officials at Paris on 26 January 2022,[464] with a follow-up phone call between the French PresidentEmmanuel Macron and Putin on 28 January.[465] Ukraine fulfilled Russia's condition for a meeting at Paris and decided to withdraw a controversial draft law on the reintegration of Crimea and Donbas from the Ukrainian parliament, as contradicting the Minsk peace agreements.[466][467]
On 7 February 2022, Macron met Putin in Moscow, with mixed outcomes: Macron said that Putin told him that Russia will not further escalate the crisis;[468] Putin scoffed at assertions that NATO is a "defensive alliance" and warned the Western countries that if Ukraine joined NATO and "decided to take back Crimea using military means, European countries will automatically be in a military conflict with Russia."[469] Putin promised Macron not to carry out new military initiatives near Ukraine.[470]
U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman meeting with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov in Geneva on 10 January 2022U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Geneva on 21 January 2022
On 7 December 2021, U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin talked via videoconference. One of the topics discussed was the crisis over Ukraine, the Russian side issuing a statement that said Putin highlighted the fact that it was "NATO that was undertaking dangerous attempts to develop Ukrainian territory and increase its potential along [Russia's] borders". He demanded "reliable, legal guarantees" that would preclude NATO from expanding its territory toward Russia or deploying its strike weapon systems in countries bordering Russia.[471][472]
On 15 December 2021, Russia formally handed over to the U.S. its two draft treaties on security guarantees whereby the U.S. as well as NATO would, among other things, undertake not to deploy troops in ex-Soviet states that were not NATO members, rule out any further expansion of the Alliance eastward, undertake not to deploy any forces in other countries in addition to that which were deployed as of 27 May 1997, and refrain from conducting any military activity in Ukraine as well as in other states in eastern Europe, the South Caucasus and Central Asia.[473]
Biden and Putin had a 50-minute phone call on 30 December 2021. In a White House statement released afterwards, on the call, Biden urged Putin to "de-escalate tensions with Ukraine".[474] According to Putin's aide, Biden told Putin that the U.S. did not plan to deploy offensive weapons in Ukraine.[475] Biden also warned that if Russia continued aggression against Ukraine, it would lead to "serious costs and consequences" such as the U.S. imposing additional economic sanctions on Russia, increasing U.S. military presence in the eastern members of NATO, and increased assistance to Ukraine.[475] According to Putin's aide, Putin responded by saying that it would "cause a total severance of relations" between Russia and the U.S. as well as the West at large.[475][476]
The following day, Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov addressed the question about what Russia expected in response to its "security guarantees" proposals by saying that "we will not allow anyone to drag out our initiatives in endless discussions. If a constructive response does not follow within a reasonable time and the West continues its aggressive course, Russia will be forced to take every necessary action to ensure a strategic balance and to eliminate unacceptable threats to our security."[477]
On 10 January 2022, the US and Russia held bilateral talks in Geneva, whose purpose had been defined by the two sides as "to discuss concerns about their respective military activity and confront rising tensions over Ukraine".[478] The talks were led by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, and U.S. Deputy Secretary of StateWendy Sherman.[479][480]
The Geneva meeting was followed by a meeting of the NATO–Russia Council in Brussels on 12 January that involved delegations from all thirty NATO countries and one from Russia to discuss (according to the official statement issued by NATO), "the situation in and around Ukraine, and the implications for European security".[481] The Russian MoD statement following the meeting stated that Russia "brought Russian assessments of the current state in the field of Euro-security, and also gave explanations on the military aspects of the Russian draft agreement on security guarantees."[482] The talks were judged by Russia to be unsuccessful.[483] Following the meeting, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that, with respect to Ukraine's potential accession to NATO, all NATO Allies were "united on the core principle that each and every nation has the right to choose his own path" and "Russia doesn't have a veto on whether Ukraine can become a NATO member. [...] at the end of the day, it has to be NATO Allies and Ukraine that decides on membership."[484]
On 21 January 2022, Lavrov and Blinken met in Geneva. Blinken noted afterwards that the meeting "was not a negotiation but a candid exchange of concerns and ideas".[485] Following the meeting, Blinken said that the U.S. had made clear to Russia that its renewed invasion would "be met with swift, severe and a united response from the United States and our partners and allies."[486]
The US delivered a formal written response to Russia's security demands on 26 January 2022. The response rejected Moscow's demand that NATO renounce its promise that Ukraine would be able to join NATO. Commenting on the content of the U.S. response, Blinken said that the document "include[d] concerns of the United States and our allies and partners about Russia's actions that undermine security, a principled and pragmatic evaluation of the concerns that Russia has raised, and our own proposals for areas where we may be able to find common ground."[487]
On 1 February 2022, Putin said the U.S. response had failed to address Moscow's "three key demands", namely the non-expansion of NATO, refusal to deploy offensive weapon systems close to the Russian borders, and bringing back NATO's military infrastructure to the status quo of 1997.[488][489] On 17 February, as the risk of Russian invasion of Ukraine was being assessed by the U.S. and NATO as very high, Russia handed a letter to the U.S. ambassador that blamed Washington for having ignored its main security demands.[490][271][491]
United Nations Security Council
A UN Security Council meeting was convened on 31 January 2022 to discuss the ongoing crisis.[492] Russia tried to block the meeting, but the request was rejected with ten votes for the meeting to go ahead, two against and three abstentions.[493] No resolution was agreed at the meeting although the U.S. and Russia exchanged accusations during the debate.[494]U.S. ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, accused Russia of "aggressive behavior", and posing a "clear threat to international peace and security". She said Russia had made the "largest military mobilization for decades in Europe", and was trying "to paint Ukraine and Western countries as the aggressors to fabricate a pretext for attack".[495][496][497]
Russia's ambassador to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya, accused the West of "hysterics" and of "whipping up tensions" over Ukraine.[495][496][497] He accused the U.S. of "stoking the conflict" and said the UNSC meeting was "an attempt to drive a wedge between Russia and Ukraine". According to him, Ukraine was not abiding by the Minsk Protocols of 2014 and 2015 to end the conflict with the separatists, and Western nations were "pumping Ukraine full of weapons" contrary to the Minsk Protocols. Nebenzya added that Ukraine's violation of the Minsk Protocols could end in the 'worst way'.[498] Ukrainian permanent representative at the UN Sergiy Kyslytsya said Russia had deployed 112,000 troops near Ukraine's borders and in Crimea, with 18,000 deployed at sea off Ukraine's coast. China's permanent representative, Zhang Jun, said the meeting was counterproductive and "quiet diplomacy, not megaphone diplomacy" was needed.[499][500]
Later, the 21 February intervention in the Donbas was widely condemned by the UN Security Council, and did not receive any support.[501] Kenya's ambassador, Martin Kimani, compared Putin's move to colonialism and said "We must complete our recovery from the embers of dead empires in a way that does not plunge us back into new forms of domination and oppression."[502] Another UN Security Council meeting was convened on 23–24 February 2022 meant to defuse the crisis; however, Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine during the meeting.[503] Russia invaded while holding the presidency of the UN Security Council for February 2022, and has veto power as one of five permanent members.[503][504]
On 4 March 2022, Russia informed Norway that it would be unable to attend Norway's Cold Response, a biennial exercise that involves 30,000 troops from 27 countries.[513][s]
Lavrov–EU correspondence
On the pan-European level, Lavrov sent separate letters to European Union (EU) and NATO countries on 30 January 2022, asking them "not to strengthen their security at the expense of the security of others" and demanding an individual reply from each.[515] Even though the text repeatedly referred to the OSCE, not all OSCE members received the letters.[516]
A few days later, on 3 February 2022, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and other EU leaders stated that a collective EU response to Lavrov's letter was forthcoming, coordinated with NATO.[517][518][519] On 10 February, the EU High RepresentativeJosep Borrell sent a response on behalf of all 27 EU member states, offering "to continue dialogue with Russia on ways to strengthen the security of all"[520] and asking Russia to de-escalate by withdrawing troops from around Ukraine.[521]
^The Donetsk People's Republic is a separatist state that declared its independence in May 2014, while receiving recognitions from its neighbouring partially recognized quasi-state, the de facto state of South Ossetia, and Russia (since 2022).[2]
^The Luhansk People's Republic is a separatist state that declared its independence in May 2014, while receiving recognitions from its neighbouring partially recognized quasi-state, the de facto state of South Ossetia, and Russia (since 2022).[3][4]
^Canada sent ammunition, light weapons, and other military equipment as well as military instructors; overall, Canada committed $7.8m in lethal aid and $620m in financial loans and non-lethal military aid.[5][6][7][8]
^DEFENDER Europe 21 was a large-scale U.S. Army-led, multinational, joint exercise designed to build readiness and interoperability between U.S., NATO and partner militaries. DEFENDER Europe 21 included a greater number of NATO allies and partner nations conducting activities over a wider area than what was planned for in 2020, which was severely restricted due to the COVID-19 pandemic. More than 28,000 multinational forces from 26 nations conducted near-simultaneous operations across more than 30 training areas in a dozen countries. DEFENDER Europe 21 also included significant involvement of the U.S. Air Force and the U.S. Navy. The exercise utilized key ground and maritime routes bridging Europe, Asia, and Africa. The exercise incorporated new or high-end capabilities including air and missile defense assets, as well as assets from the U.S. Army Security Force Assistance Brigades and the recently reactivated V Corps.
Defender Europe 21 was one of the largest U.S.-Army, NATO-led military exercises in Europe in decades. The exercise began in mid-March and lasted until June 2021. It included "nearly simultaneous operations across more than 30 training areas" in Estonia, Bulgaria, Romania, Kosovo and other countries.[145][146] Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, commanding general of the United States Army Europe and Africa, said that "While we are closely monitoring the COVID situation, we've proven we have the capability to train safely despite the pandemic."[145] Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said that Russia had deployed troops to its western borders for "combat training exercises" in response to NATO's "military activities that threaten Russia."[147]
^"(70) No participating State will carry out a military activity subject to prior notification involving more than 40,000 troops or 900 battle tanks or 2,000 ACVs or 900 self-propelled and towed artillery pieces, mortars and multiple rocket launchers (100 mm calibre and above) unless it has been the object of a communication as defined above and unless it has been included in the annual calendar, not later than 15 November each year."[514]
References
^Захарова: РФ и Беларусь вынуждены реагировать на наращивание сил НАТО у общих границ [Zakharova: Russia and Belarus are forced to respond to the build-up of NATO forces near their common border]. Rossiyskaya Gazeta (in Russian). 20 January 2022. Archived from the original on 20 January 2022. Retrieved 20 January 2022. На брифинге Захарова подчеркнула, что на происходящее Москва и Минск вынуждены адекватно реагировать. В частности, путем совместного патрулирования воздушного пространства, регулярных совместных тренировок, а также учений. Так, уже в феврале пройдет совместное учение "Союзная решимость-2022". На территорию Беларуси уже начали прибывать подразделения из состава ВС РФ. [At the briefing, Zakharova stressed that Moscow and Minsk were forced to respond adequately to what was happening. In particular, through joint patrolling of the airspace, regular joint training, and exercises. So, in February, the joint exercise "Allied Resolve-2022" will be held. Units from the RF Armed Forces have already begun to arrive on the territory of Belarus.]
^Alec, Luhn (6 November 2014). "Ukraine's rebel 'people's republics' begin work of building new states". The Guardian. Donetsk. Retrieved 31 January 2022. The two 'people's republics' carved out over the past seven months by pro-Russia rebels have not been recognised by any countries, and a rushed vote to elect governments for them on Sunday was declared illegal by Kiev, Washington and Brussels.
^Общая информация [General Information]. Official site of the head of the Luhansk People's Republic (in Russian). Archived from the original on 12 March 2018. Retrieved 11 March 2018. 11 июня 2014 года Луганская Народная Республика обратилась к Российской Федерации, а также к 14 другим государствам, с просьбой о признании её независимости. К настоящему моменту независимость республики признана провозглашенной Донецкой Народной Республикой и частично признанным государством Южная Осетия. [On June 11, 2014, the Luhansk People's Republic turned to the Russian Federation, as well as to 14 other states, with a request to recognize its independence. To date, the republic's independence has been recognized by the proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic and the partially recognized state of South Ossetia.]
^"Шепетівський ремонтний завод" отримав партію шасі Tatra від чеської Excalibur Army для РСЗВ "Буревій" ["Shepetivka Repair Plant" received a batch of Tatra chassis from the Czech Excalibur Army for MLRS "Storm"] (in Ukrainian). Defense Express. 23 December 2021. Нові шасі від Tatra були спеціально доопрацьовані чеською Excalibur Army під вимоги ЗСУ – в рамках виконання державного оборонного замовлення. На ДП "Шепетівський ремонтний завод" прибула партія шасі Tatra для випуску нової української 220-мм реактивної системи залпового вогню "Буревій". [The new chassis from Tatra was specially modified by the Czech Excalibur Army to the requirements of the Armed Forces – as part of the state defense order. A batch of Tatra chassis has arrived at the Shepetivka Repair Plant to produce a new Ukrainian 220-mm Bureviya multiple rocket launchers.]
^"The Czech Republic is sending thousands of artillery shells to Ukraine". Czech Daily. 27 January 2022. Retrieved 13 February 2022. ... the (Czech) government decided to donate 4,000 artillery shells to Ukraine for about CZK 37 million. Minister Černochová described it as a gesture of solidarity. Defence Minister Jana Černochová (ODS), who proposed the donation to the cabinet, sees it as a significant act of solidarity. The Czech Republic wants to use the donation to strengthen Ukraine's defense capabilities. The Czech Republic will send 4006 pieces of 152-millimeter artillery ammunition to Ukraine, worth CZK 36.6 million. It will be transferred through a donation agreement.
^Julian E., Barnes; Michael, Crowley; Eric, Schmitt (10 January 2022). "Russia Positioning Helicopters, in Possible Sign of Ukraine Plans". The New York Times. Archived from the original on 22 January 2022. Retrieved 20 January 2022. American officials had expected additional Russian troops to stream toward the Ukrainian border in December and early January, building toward a force of 175,000.
^ abCrowley, Michael; Wong, Edward (29 January 2022). "U.S. Sanctions Aimed at Russia Could Take a Wide Toll". The New York Times. Washington D.C. Retrieved 15 February 2022. And the "swift and severe" response that U.S. officials have promised could roil major economies, particularly those in Europe, and even threaten the stability of the global financial system, analysts say.
^Sanger, David E. (10 January 2022). "In U.S.-Russia Talks, How Far Can Putin Turn Back the Clock?". The New York Times. Washington D.C.ISSN0362-4331. Archived from the original on 19 January 2022. Retrieved 21 January 2022. The lesson of the past year may be that while the Cold War is long over, Cold War-like behavior lives on. And in the three decades since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the tension between the world's two principal nuclear adversaries has never been worse — making the pathway to a peaceful de-escalation harder to discern.
^Mark, Gongloff (13 January 2022). "Putin Launches an Unwelcome Cold War Reboot". Bloomberg News. Bloomberg L.P.Archived from the original on 21 January 2022. Retrieved 21 January 2022. This practice lost favor, perhaps not coincidentally, right around the time the Soviet Union's sphere popped like a balloon in a Chuck E. Cheese brawl. That left the United States alone with a world-sized balloon, at which point everybody agreed spheres of influence were passé. Now, with the growing shakiness of the Pax Americana as Chinese and Russian powers grow, this ugly game is rebooting yet again, Andreas warns.
^Dawar, Anil (4 April 2008). "Putin warns Nato over expansion". The Guardian. Retrieved 15 February 2022. The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, today repeated his warning that Moscow would view any attempt to expand NATO to its borders as a 'direct threat'.
^Chifu, Iulian; Nantoi, Oazu; Sushko, Oleksandr (2009). "Russia–Georgia War of August 2008: Ukrainian Approach"(PDF). The Russian Georgian War: A trilateral cognitive institutional approach of the crisis decision-making process. Bucharest: Editura Curtea Veche. p. 181. ISBN978-973-1983-19-6. Archived(PDF) from the original on 30 September 2018. Retrieved 21 February 2016. Conceptually, Russia sees Ukraine within the sphere of own 'privileged interests'; in fact, it means a modernized version of Brezhnev's doctrine of 'limited sovereignty', realized after the occupation of Czechoslovakia in 1968.
^Remarks concerning Ukraine by Vladimir Putin. Putin makes a statement following the Security Council meeting on Donbass recognition on YouTube. RT. 21 February 2022. Minutes 41:17–42:58. "Because of the openness and goodwill, our goodwill, relations between Russia and the West were at a high level. Russia fulfilled all its obligations, we withdrew troops from Germany, from the central and European countries, and it made a huge contribution in overcoming the legacy of the Cold War. We consistently suggested all kinds of cooperation, including in the form of the NATO council and OECD. ... [When I asked], how would America see Russia joining NATO? ... How did Americans really look at this possibility? You can see it in their practical steps, in regard for a country: Open support of the terrorists in North Caucasus; Ignoring our demands and our concerns in the security area; Withdrawing from the arms treaties, and so on and so forth. It still begs the question, why? Why did they do that? What for? Okay, you don't want to see a friend in us, an ally in us. But why do you want to make an enemy out of us?"
^Feffer, John (14 March 2014). "Who Are These 'People,' Anyway?". HuffPost. BuzzFeed. Archived from the original on 18 March 2014. Retrieved 17 March 2014. At that point, his own party abandoned him and called for a vote to take place. Parliament then voted to remove Yanukovych from office by a margin of 328 to 0.
^Polityuk, Pavel; Robinson, Matt; Baczynska, Gabriela; Goettig, Marcin; Graff, Peter; Elgood, Giles (22 February 2014). Roche, Andrew (ed.). "Ukraine parliament removes Yanukovich, who flees Kiev in "coup"". Reuters. Kyiv: Thomson Corporation. Archived from the original on 9 June 2016. Retrieved 18 November 2020. Underscoring Ukraine's regional divisions, leaders of Russian-speaking eastern provinces loyal to Yanukovich voted to challenge anti-Yanukovich steps by the central parliament.
^Grytsenko, Oksana; Vlasova, Anastasia (12 April 2014). "Armed pro-Russian insurgents in Luhansk say they are ready for police raid". Kyiv Post. Luhansk: Businessgroup LLC. Archived from the original on 12 April 2014. Retrieved 1 February 2022. ... their top aim is federalization of the country through all-Ukrainian referendum, one step from secession from the nation. 'It should be a federation in the borders of Ukraine, but with the right to separate if people demand this,' Kariakin said, confident that 85 percent of people in Luhansk Oblast, Ukraine's seventh most populous with 2.2 million people, support him.
^Ragozin, Leonid (16 March 2019). "Annexation of Crimea: A masterclass in political manipulation". Al Jazeera English. Riga: Al Jazeera. Archived from the original on 28 May 2020. Retrieved 24 January 2022. Putin framed the invasion and eventual annexation of Crimea as an act of salvation rather than a clear violation of international law and turned a revolution which could have marked the end of his rule into a much-needed popularity booster ...
^"Relations with Ukraine". NATO. 11 January 2020. Retrieved 15 February 2022. In September 2020, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy approved Ukraine's new National Security Strategy, which provides for the development of the distinctive partnership with NATO with the aim of membership in NATO.
^Taylor, Paul (23 November 2021). "Ukraine: NATO's original sin". Politico. Axel Springer SE. Retrieved 1 February 2022. The result heightened Kremlin's fears of encirclement and of losing the strategic depth that enabled Russia to prevail over Western invaders twice ... no amount of assurances that NATO is not a threat to Russia, that its purpose is purely defensive or that none of its weapons would ever be used except in response to an attack could assuage Moscow.
^Bullough, Oliver (28 March 2014). "Vladimir Putin: The rebuilding of 'Soviet' Russia". BBC. Archived from the original on 24 January 2022. Retrieved 25 January 2022. 'He does not understand that the collapse of the Soviet system was predetermined, therefore he believes his mission is to restore the Soviet system as soon as possible,' he (Vladimir Bukovsky) says.
^ abcCooper, Helene; Barnes, Julian E.; Schmitt, Eric (5 May 2021). "80,000 Russian Troops Remain at Ukraine Border as U.S. and NATO Hold Exercises". The New York Times. Washington D.C. Archived from the original on 14 January 2022. Retrieved 19 January 2022. Senior American officials believe an incursion to secure the water supply remains a real threat. ... Senior Defense Department officials said that close to 80,000 Russian troops remained near various strips of the country's border with Ukraine, still the biggest force Russia has amassed there since Moscow annexed Crimea in 2014. ... The Russian military did order some units back to their barracks by May 1 — and they did move from the border — the officials said. But many of the units left their trucks and armored vehicles behind, a signal that they could go back if President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia decided to deploy them again.
^Troianovski, Anton (8 May 2021). "Where Ukrainians Are Preparing for All-Out War With Russia". The New York Times. Kalanchak, Ukraine. Archived from the original on 24 May 2021. Retrieved 19 January 2022. In Washington, senior American officials believe that an incursion to secure the water supply remains a real threat, though the costs and difficulty of such a move appear to have been sufficient to dissuade Russia for now.
^Snyder, Timothy D. (18 January 2022). "How to think about war in Ukraine". Thinking about... (newsletter). Substack. Archived from the original on 19 January 2022. Retrieved 25 January 2021. Historically speaking, the idea that a dictator in another country decides who is a nation and who is not is known as imperialism.
^Roth, Andrew (7 December 2021). "Putin's Ukraine rhetoric driven by distorted view of neighbor". The Guardian. Moscow. Archived from the original on 7 December 2021. Retrieved 25 January 2021. But that fear has gone hand-in-hand with chauvinistic bluster that indicates Moscow has a distorted view of modern Ukraine and the goals it wants to achieve there.
^Dickinson, Peter; Haring, Melinda; Lubkivsky, Danylo; Motyl, Alexander; Whitmore, Brian; Goncharenko, Oleksiy; Fedchenko, Yevhen; Bonner, Brian; Kuzio, Taras (15 July 2021). "Putin's new Ukraine essay reveals imperial ambitions". Atlantic Council. Archived from the original on 15 July 2021. Retrieved 25 January 2021. Vladimir Putin's inaccurate and distorted claims are neither new nor surprising. They are just the latest example of gaslighting by the Kremlin leader.
^Wilson, Andrew (23 December 2021). "Russia and Ukraine: 'One People' as Putin Claims?". Royal United Services Institute. Archived from the original on 24 January 2022. Retrieved 25 January 2022. Putin's key trope is that Ukrainians and Russians are 'one people', and he calls them both 'Russian'. He starts with a myth of common origin: 'Russians, Ukrainians and Belarusians are all descendants of Ancient Rus', which was the largest state in Europe' from the 9th–13th centuries AD.
^Shuster, Simon (2 February 2021). "The Untold Story of the Ukraine Crisis". Time. Kyiv: WarnerMedia. Archived from the original on 25 February 2022. Retrieved 26 February 2022. [D]ays after the Inauguration of President Joe Biden, America's allies in Kyiv decided to get tough on Medvedchuk. The Ukrainian government took his TV channels off the air, depriving Russia of its propaganda outlets in the country. The U.S. embassy in Kyiv applauded the move. ... The first inkling of Putin's response came less than two days later, at 7 a.m. on Feb. 21. In a little-noticed statement, the Russian Defense Ministry announced the deployment of 3,000 paratroopers to the border with Ukraine for 'large-scale exercises,' training them to 'seize enemy structures and hold them until the arrival of the main force.'
^Zhegulyov, Ilya (25 April 2023). "Как Путин возненавидел Украину" [How Putin hated Ukraine]. Vertska (in Russian). Archived from the original on 25 April 2023. Retrieved 7 November 2024. Три источника в окружении российского президента подтвердили, что именно эта история с уничтожением информационного ресурса Медведчука и тем, что его начали «кошмарить», стала последней каплей в принятии Путиным решения о подготовке к военной операции. К инструментам «мягкой силы» в Кремле решили больше не прибегать. Наезд, когда у него отобрали телевидение и партию стали фигачить, — это прям сильно завело Путина, — рассказывает один из давних знакомых российского президента... Именно Ковальчук убедил Путина, что Европа разделена противоречиями и сейчас самое лучшее время для быстрой операции, говорит источник, близкий к Кремлю. [Three sources in the Russian president's entourage confirmed that this story about the destruction of Medvedchuk's information resource and the fact that he was being “harassed” was the last straw in Putin's decision to prepare for a military operation. The Kremlin decided not to resort to the tools of “soft power” anymore. The attack, when they took away his television and began to shake down the party - that really turned Putin on,” says one of the Russian president's old acquaintances... It was Kovalchuk who convinced Putin that Europe was divided by contradictions and that now was the best time for a quick operation, says a source close to the Kremlin.]
^Stepura, Anton (3 March 2021). Бойовики "ДНР" заявили про дозвіл вести "упереджувальний вогонь на знищення" [DNR militants declare permission to conduct "preemptive fire for destruction"]. Suspilne (in Ukrainian). State Committee for Television and Radio-broadcasting (Ukraine). Archived from the original on 24 January 2022. Retrieved 24 January 2022. Бойовики самоназваної 'ДНР' отримали дозвіл на ведення 'упереджувального вогню на знищення'. ... У заяві бойовиків ідеться, що 'підрозділам народної міліції дано дозвіл на ведення попереджувального вогню на придушення і знищення вогневих точок противника'. [Militants of the self-proclaimed 'DPR' received permission to conduct 'preemptive fire for destruction'. ... The statement of the militants states that 'the units of the people's militia were given permission to conduct warning fire to suppress and destroy enemy firing points.']
^Російський вертоліт порушив повітряний простір України [Russian helicopter violates Ukrainian airspace]. Ukrainska Pravda (in Ukrainian). Dragon Capital. 16 March 2021. Archived from the original on 18 March 2021. Retrieved 31 May 2021. 16 березня прикордонний наряд ДПСУ в Сумській області зафіксував заліт вертольоту (за ознаками – Мі-8 -ред.) з Російської Федерації на відстань близько 50 метрів на територію України. Після чого гелікоптер повернув у зворотному напрямку і залишив повітряний простір нашої держави. [On March 16, the SBGS border patrol in the Sumy region recorded a helicopter (Mi-8-ed.) flying from the Russian Federation at a distance of about 50 meters into Ukraine. Then the helicopter turned in the opposite direction and left the airspace of our state.]
^Inna, Semenova (29 March 2021). Найбільші втрати від початку перемир'я. Що сталося в бою під Шумами і як відповість Україна [The biggest losses since the beginning of the armistice. What happened in the battle of Shumy and how Ukraine will respond?]. New Voice (in Ukrainian). Archived from the original on 23 January 2022. Retrieved 19 January 2022. Бій біля селища Шуми (Донецька область) стався вдень 26 березня. Бойовики прицільно обстріляли українські позиції близько 13:45. ... Внаслідок обстрілу загинули четверо українських військовослужбовців, ще двох було поранено. [The battle near the village of Shumy (Donetsk region) took place in the afternoon of March 26, 2021. The militants fired at Ukrainian positions at about 1:45 p.m. ... Four Ukrainian servicemen were killed and two others were wounded in the shelling.]
^Росія відмовилася повернутися до режиму припинення вогню з 1 квітня [Russia has refused to return to the ceasefire since April 1]. Ukrainska Pravda (in Ukrainian). Dragon Capital. 31 March 2021. Archived from the original on 3 November 2021. Retrieved 3 November 2021. Росія не підтримала пропозицію голови української делегації в ТКГ Леоніда Кравчука поновити режим припинення вогню на Донбасі з 00:00 1 квітня. [Russia did not support the proposal of the head of the Ukrainian delegation to the TCG Leonid Kravchuk to renew the ceasefire in the Donbass from 00:00 on April 1.]
^Zakharova, Maria (15 April 2021). "Briefing by Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, Moscow, April 15, 2021". The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. Moscow: Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Archived from the original on 18 April 2021. Retrieved 18 April 2021. These propaganda attacks demonstrate that the Alliance and its member countries want to justify their more intensive military activities in Ukraine and near it. ... I would like to remind you that throughout this year alone NATO is planning seven military exercises in Ukraine. ... NATO warships are entering the Black Sea ever more frequently; the number of such visits increased by one-third last year.
^Kizilov, Eugene (30 March 2021). Росія стягує війська до кордону з Україною – Хомчак [Russia draws troops to the border with Ukraine – Khomchak]. Ukrainska Pravda (in Ukrainian). Kyiv: Dragon Capital. Archived from the original on 21 May 2021. Retrieved 31 May 2021. [Р]осія стягує війська до кордону з Україною – у Брянську і Воронежську області РФ та до окупованого Криму. ... [с]таном на 30 березня вздовж російсько-українського кордону та на окупованих територіях Донбасу і Криму перебувають 28 батальйонних тактичних груп противника. ... Українське командування очікує, що незабаром біля українського кордону і в Криму Росія збере ще 'до 25 батальйонних тактичних груп, що в сукупності з наявними розгорнутими силами та засобами поблизу з державним кордоном України створює загрозу воєнній безпеці держави'. ... році Росія збільшила свою військову присутність на півострові до 32,7 тис. військових. ... на окупованому Донбасі розгорнуті 14 полків російської армії у складі 28 тисяч військових. ... На сході України перебуває також апарат військових радників та інструкторів у складі 2 тисяч осіб. [[R]ussia is withdrawing troops to the border with Ukraine – at Bryansk and Voronezh and at occupied Crimea. ... As of 30 March, there are 28 battalion tactical groups of the enemy along the Russian–Ukrainian border and in the occupied territories of Donbas and Crimea. ... The Ukrainian command expects that Russia will soon assemble 'up to 25 more battalion tactical groups near the Ukrainian border and in Crimea, which, together with the deployed forces and means near the state border of Ukraine, threatens the state's military security.' ... Russia increased its military presence on the peninsula to 32.7 thousand troops. ... 14 regiments of the Russian army consisting of 28,000 troops were deployed in the occupied Donbass. ... In the east of Ukraine there is also a staff of military advisers and instructors consisting of 2 thousand people.]
^Свобода, Радіо (5 April 2021). Росія не є загрозою для України, пересування армії Росії не має викликати занепокоєння – Кремль [Russia is not a threat to Ukraine, the movement of Russia's army should not be a concern – the Kremlin]. Radio Svoboda (in Ukrainian). Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. Archived from the original on 2 May 2021. Retrieved 31 May 2021. За його словами, це не має викликати 'ані найменшого занепокоєння'. 'Росія не є загрозою ні для однієї країни світу, в тому числі не є загрозою для України', – сказав Пєсков. [According to him, this should not cause 'the slightest concern.' 'Russia is not a threat to any country in the world, including not a threat to Ukraine,' Peskov said.]
^ abConley, Heather A.; Funaiole, Matthew P.; Bermudez, Joseph S. Jr.; Newlin, Cyrus (22 April 2021). "Unpacking the Russian Troop Buildup along Ukraine's Border". Center for Strategic and International Studies. Archived from the original on 27 December 2021. Retrieved 27 December 2021. On April 22, the Russian government appeared to turn down the heat on these deployments, with Minister Shoigu announcing a drawdown of the exercise and ordering troops to return to their permanent bases by May 1, to include the 58th Army of the Southern Military District, the 41st Army of the Central Military District, as well as the 7th and 76th Airborne Assault and 98th Airborne divisions, according to the statement. Importantly, the equipment and weapons of the 41st Army are to remain at Pogonovo, a military training ground 17 kilometers south of Voronezh.
^Проліт "Алігаторів": як ЗС РФ практично реалізує інформаційні операції проти України під час військових навчань [The flight of the "Alligators": how the Russian Armed Forces practically implement information operations against Ukraine during military exercises]. InformNapalm (in Ukrainian). 2 April 2021. Archived from the original on 19 January 2022. Retrieved 19 January 2022. Сьогодні, 2 квітня, в російських джерелах, зокрема, на популярному телеграм- каналі 'Военный обозреватель', що афілійований з російськими силовими структурами, опублікували відео прольоту групи російських ударних вертольотів Ка-52 'Алігатор' і Мі-28 'Нічний мисливець', підкреслюючи при цьому, що проліт нібито відбувся на кордоні з Україною. Деякі регіональні джерела повідомляли, що російські вертольоти тільки наблизилися до кордону з Україною у районі Ростовської області РФ, але не перетинали його. [Translated via Google Translate: Today, 2 April, in Russian sources, in particular, on the popular telegram channel 'Military Observer', affiliated with the Russian security forces, published a video of the flight of a group of Russian attack helicopters Ka-52 'Alligator' and Mi-28 'Night Hunter'. emphasizing that the flight allegedly took place on the border with Ukraine. Some regional sources reported that Russian helicopters had just approached the border with Ukraine in the Rostov region of the Russian Federation but did not cross it.]
^Perepdaya, Elena (4 April 2021). Українська армія відкидає застосування зброї проти цивільних на Донбасі [The Ukrainian army rejects the use of weapons against civilians in Donbass]. Deutsche Welle (in Ukrainian). Archived from the original on 20 January 2022. Retrieved 19 January 2022. Тим часом спікер російської Держдуми В'ячеслав Володін заявив, що керівництво України має понести відповідальність за смерть дитини під Донецьком та запропонував виключити Україну з Ради Європи. [Meanwhile, Russian State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin said Ukraine's leadership should be held responsible for the child's death near Donetsk and suggested excluding Ukraine from the Council of Europe.]
^Якщо Кремль шукає "казус беллі", вкидаючи цинічні фейки, світ це має сприймати всерйоз [If the Kremlin is looking for a "casus belli" by throwing cynical fakes, the world should take it seriously]. Ministry of Defence (in Ukrainian). Government of Ukraine. 6 April 2021. Archived from the original on 20 January 2022. Retrieved 19 January 2022. За повідомленням Української делегації для участі у Тристоронній контактній групі, 'Українська сторона Спільного центру з контролю та координації 5 квітня 2021 року надіслала Спеціальній моніторинговій місії ОБСЄ в Україні ноту щодо намірів окупаційної адміністрації фальсифікувати події в н.п. Олександрівське Донецької області України'. [According to the Ukrainian delegation to participate in the Tripartite Contact Group, 'On April 5, 2021, the Ukrainian side of the Joint Monitoring and Coordination Center sent a note to the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission in Ukraine regarding the occupation administration's intentions to falsify events. Oleksandrivske, Donetsk region of Ukraine'.]
^Lavrenyuk, Yaroslava (5 April 2021). Фейк: На Донбасі внаслідок атаки українського безпілотника загинула дитина (оновлено) [Fake: A child died in Donbas as a result of a Ukrainian drone attack (updated)]. Stopfake (in Ukrainian). Archived from the original on 20 January 2022. Retrieved 19 January 2022. 6 квітня Спеціальна моніторингова місія ОБСЄ в Україні підтвердила смерть дитини. Повідомляється, що вона померла 'в результаті вибухової травми й множинних осколкових поранень'. Інформація про те, що дитина загинула в результаті удару українського безпілотника відсутня. [On April 6, the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission in Ukraine confirmed the death of a child. She reportedly died 'as a result of an explosive injury and multiple shrapnel wounds.' There is no information that the child died as a result of a Ukrainian drone strike.]
^На Донеччині загинули двоє українських військових [Two Ukrainian servicemen killed in Donetsk region]. ukinform.ua (in Ukrainian). Ukrinform. 6 April 2021. Archived from the original on 15 April 2021. Retrieved 31 May 2021. Внаслідок обстрілу українських позицій російськими найманцями поблизу населеного пункту Невельське, що на Донеччині, загинув український військовий. Ще один захисник загинув поблизу Степного через підрив на невідомому вибуховому пристрої. [Translated: A Ukrainian serviceman was killed as a result of shelling of Ukrainian positions by Russian mercenaries near the town of Nevelske in the Donetsk region. Another defender was killed near Stepny by an unknown explosive device.]
^Через обстріл на Донеччині 50 населених пунктів залишилися без води [Due to the shelling in Donetsk region, 50 settlements were left without water]. ukrinform.ua (in Ukrainian). Ukrinform. 6 April 2021. Archived from the original on 8 April 2021. Retrieved 31 May 2021. У Донецькій області внаслідок обстрілу знеструмлена насосна станція першого підйому Південно-донбаського водогону. Постачання води споживачам припинене. Як передає Укрінформ, про це увечері 6 квітня повідомили в комунальному підприємстві 'Компанія 'Вода Донбасу'. Повідомляється, що від цієї насосної станції вода постачається майже до 50 населених пунктів регіону, на чотири фільтрувальні станції ... [Translated: In the Donetsk region, as a result of the shelling, the pumping station of the first rise of the South Donbas water supply system was de-energized. Water supply to consumers has been suspended. According to Ukrinform, this was announced in the evening of April 6 at the utility company 'Water of Donbass'. It is reported that from this pumping station water is supplied to almost 50 settlements of the region, to four filtering stations ...]
^Росія перекидає кораблі з Каспію на Чорне море [Russia transfers ships from the Caspian Sea to the Black Sea]. mil.in.ua (in Ukrainian). Militarnyi. Archived from the original on 19 January 2022. Retrieved 19 January 2022. Росія, як заявляється у рамках навчань, перекидає кораблі з Каспію на Чорне море. Про це пише Интерфакс. Міжфлотський перехід почали десантні та артилерійські катери Каспійської флотилії. Заявляється, що екіпажі та кораблі Каспійської флотилії будуть здавати підсумкові морські навчання у взаємодії з Чорноморським флотом. [Translated: Russia, as stated in the exercise, is transferring ships from the Caspian Sea to the Black Sea. This was reported by Interfax. The landing and artillery boats of the Caspian flotilla began the inter-naval crossing. It is stated that the crews and ships of the Caspian Flotilla will pass the final naval exercises in cooperation with the Black Sea Fleet.]
^Консула в Петербурзі Сосонюка затримали на кілька годин, і він уже в дипустанові. Україна готує відповідь, – речник МЗС Ніколенко [Consul in St. Petersburg Sosoniuk was detained for several hours, and he is already in the embassy. Ukraine is preparing an answer, – Foreign Ministry spokesman Nikolenko]. Censor.net (in Ukrainian). 17 April 2021. Archived from the original on 31 May 2021. Retrieved 31 May 2021. ...сьогодні вранці стало відомо, що український консул Олександр Сосонюк затриманий в російському місті Санкт-Петербург. Його затримала ФСБ нібито "під час отримання інформації закритого характеру під час зустрічі з громадянином РФ". [...this morning it became known that the Ukrainian consul Alexander Sosonyuk is detained in the Russian city of St. Petersburg. He was detained by the FSB allegedly "while receiving confidential information during a meeting with a Russian citizen."]
^Yavorovich, Tatiana (17 April 2021). Затримання українського консула: Єнін розповів, як у Росії підставили Сосонюка [Detention of the Ukrainian consul: Yenin told how Sosoniuk was set up in Russia]. Суспільне | Новини (in Ukrainian). Archived from the original on 20 January 2022. Retrieved 19 January 2022. У Міністерстві закордонних справ України припускають, що затримання консула Генерального консульства України Олександра Сосонюка у Санкт-Петербурзі готувалось за заздалегідь спланованим сценарієм. [The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine assumes that the detention of the Consul General of Ukraine Oleksandr Sosonyuk in St. Petersburg was prepared according to a pre-planned scenario.]
^Igor, Litvinenko (22 April 2021). Висланий український консул покинув РФ [The deported Ukrainian consul left Russia] (in Ukrainian). RBC Ukraine. Archived from the original on 31 May 2021. Retrieved 31 May 2021. Висланий український консул Олександр Сосонюк виїхав з Російської Федерації вчора, 21 квітня. Він візьме коротку відпустку, після чого повернеться до роботи у зовнішньополітичному відомстві України. [The deported Ukrainian consul Oleksandr Sosonyuk left the Russian Federation yesterday, April 21. He will take a short vacation, after which he will return to work in the Foreign Ministry of Ukraine.]
^Rokytna, Anastasia (19 April 2021). Україна направила ноту російському дипломату. У нього є 72 години, щоб покинути країну [Ukraine sent a note to a Russian diplomat. He has 72 hours to leave the country] (in Ukrainian). RBC Ukraine. Archived from the original on 25 April 2021. Retrieved 31 May 2021. Україна направила ноту російському дипломату. Щоб покинути країну, у нього є 72 години. Про це повідомив в коментарі РБК-Україна речник Міністерства закордонних справ України Олег Ніколенко. [Ukraine sent a note to a Russian diplomat. He has 72 hours to leave the country. This was announced in a comment to RBC-Ukraine by the spokesman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Oleh Nikolenko.]
^Патрушев заявив про "загрозу терактів і диверсій" у Криму [Patrushev said there was a "threat of terrorist attacks and sabotage" in Crimea]. Radio Liberty (in Ukrainian). 14 April 2021. Archived from the original on 19 January 2022. Retrieved 20 January 2022. Секретар Ради безпеки Росії Микола Патрушев на нараді, яку він провів в анексованому Криму 14 квітня, заявив, що 'українські спецслужби намагаються організувати теракти і диверсії' на території півострова. [Russia's Security Council Secretary Mykola Patrushev said at a meeting in annexed Crimea on April 14 that 'Ukrainian special services are trying to organize terrorist attacks and sabotage' on the peninsula.]
^"Кораблі ФСБ РФ намагались спровокувати ВМСУ біля Керченської протоки: "Гюрзи-М" дали гідну відсіч" [Ships of the FSB of the Russian Federation tried to provoke the Navy near the Kerch Strait: "Gyurzy-M" gave a decent rebuff]. Defense Express. Archived from the original on 19 January 2022. Retrieved 19 January 2022. У ніч з 14 на 15 квітня цього року відбувся інцидент в Азовському морі між трьома малими броньованими катерами "Гюрза-М" ВМС України та п'ятьма катерами і кораблем Берегової охорони Прикордонної служби ФСБ РФ...За його словами, інцидент відбувся 25 милях від Керченської протоки, коли катери наших ВМС виконували супровід цивільних суден...Щоб зупинити провокації, нашим морякам довелось попередити про готовність застосувати бортове озброєння. За даними Клименка, інцидент обійшовся без жодних втрат для нашого флоту, усі катери ВМС України успішно повернулись назад до гавані. [On the night of April 14–15 this year, an incident took place in the Sea of Azov between three small armored boats "Gyurza-M" of the Ukrainian Navy and five boats and a ship of the Coast Guard of the FSB Border Guard...According to him, the incident took place 25 miles from the Kerch Strait, when the boats of our Navy escorted civilian ships...To stop the provocations, our sailors had to warn about the readiness to use airborne weapons. According to Klymenko, the incident was without any losses for our fleet, all boats of the Ukrainian Navy successfully returned back to the harbor.]
^Міністерство закордонних справ України – Заява МЗС України у зв'язку із обмеженням Російською Федерацією свободи судноплавства в Чорному морі [Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine – Statement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine in connection with the Russian Federation's restriction of freedom of navigation in the Black Sea]. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine (in Ukrainian). Archived from the original on 4 November 2021. Retrieved 19 January 2022. Російська Федерація оголосила про закриття з наступного тижня до жовтня 2021 року частини акваторій Чорного моря в напрямку Керченської протоки для військових кораблів та державних суден інших країн під приводом військових навчань. Такі дії Російської Федерації є черговою спробою в порушення норм і принципів міжнародного права узурпувати суверенні права України як прибережної держави, оскільки саме Україна наділена правами регулювати судноплавство в цих акваторіях Чорного моря. [The Russian Federation has announced the closure from next week to October 2021 of part of the Black Sea in the direction of the Kerch Strait for warships and state vessels of other countries under the pretext of military exercises. Such actions of the Russian Federation are another attempt in violation of the norms and principles of international law to usurp the sovereign rights of Ukraine as a coastal state, as it is Ukraine that has the right to regulate navigation in these Black Sea areas.]
^Yuri, Godovan (20 April 2021). Військ РФ біля кордону України зараз більше, ніж у 2014 році – Пентагон [Size of Russian troops near the Ukrainian border are now larger than in 2014 – the Pentagon]. Ukrainian Independent Information Agency (UNIAN) (in Ukrainian). Reuters. Archived from the original on 26 April 2021. Retrieved 31 May 2021. У Пентагоні заявили, що Росія зосередила поблизу кордону з Україною більше військ, ніж у 2014 році. Про це заявив речник оборонного відомства США Джон Кірбі, передає "Радіо Свобода". [The Pentagon said that Russia had concentrated more troops near the border with Ukraine than in 2014. This was stated by spokesman for the US Department of Defense John Kirby, reports "Radio Liberty".]
^РФ обмежила польоти над частиною Криму і Чорного моря, – NOTAM [Russia has restricted flights over part of the Crimea and the Black Sea – NOTAM]. Censor.net (in Ukrainian). 20 April 2021. Archived from the original on 23 April 2021. Retrieved 31 May 2021. Росія ввела з 20 по 24 квітня тимчасові обмеження на польоти над частиною Криму і Чорного моря. Про це йдеться в міжнародному повідомленні для пілотів (NOTAM), інформує Цензор.НЕТ із посиланням на Інтерфакс-Україна. [Russia has imposed temporary restrictions on flights over parts of Crimea and the Black Sea from April 20 to 24. This is stated in the International Notice to Pilots (NOTAM), informs Censor.NET with reference to Interfax-Ukraine.]
^Medvedev, Dmitry (11 October 2021). Почему бессмысленны контакты с нынешним украинским руководством [Why contacts with the current Ukrainian leadership are meaningless]. Kommersant (in Russian). Archived from the original on 21 January 2022. Дураков сражаться за Украину нет. А нам с вассалами дело иметь бессмысленно. Дела нужно вести с сюзереном ... Бессмысленность и даже вредность отношений с нынешними руководителями Украины состоит еще и в том, что во главе этой страны стоят невежественные и необязательные люди. Они постоянно меняют позицию в угоду своим заокеанским хозяевам и политической конъюнктуре ... Тогда встает извечный и главный вопрос: что делать в этой ситуации? А ничего. Дождаться появления на Украине вменяемого руководства, которое нацелено не на тотальную конфронтацию с Россией на грани войны, не на организацию дебильных 'Крымских платформ', созданных для оболванивания населения страны и подкачки своих мускулов перед выборами, а на выстраивание равноправных и взаимовыгодных отношений с Россией. Вот только с таким руководством Украины и стоит иметь дело. Россия умеет ждать. Мы люди терпеливые. [There are no fools to fight for Ukraine. And it is pointless for us to deal with vassals. Business must be done with the suzerain ... The senselessness and even harmfulness of relations with the current leaders of Ukraine also lies in the fact that ignorant and unnecessary people are at the head of this country. They constantly change their position to please their overseas masters and the political situation ... Then the eternal and main question arises: what to do in this situation? But nothing. Wait for the emergence of a sane leadership in Ukraine, which is aimed not at a total confrontation with Russia on the brink of war, not at organizing moronic 'Crimean platforms' created to fool the population of the country and pump up their muscles before the elections, but at building equal and mutually beneficial relations with Russia. That's just with such a leadership of Ukraine and it is worth dealing with. Russia knows how to wait. We are patient people.]
^Vladimir, Isachenkov (12 November 2021). "Kremlin denies plans to invade Ukraine, alleges NATO threats". Associated Press. Archived from the original on 10 December 2021. Retrieved 24 December 2021. The Russian Defense Ministry described the deployment of the U.S. warships USS Mount Whitney and USS Porter, which sailed into the Black Sea last week, as a "threat to regional security and strategic stability." "The real goal behind the U.S. activities in the Black Sea region is exploring the theater of operations in case of Kyiv's attempts to settle the conflict in the southeast by force," the ministry said in a statement.
^Sarah, Rainford (27 November 2021). "Russia-Ukraine border: Why Moscow is stoking tensions". BBC News. Moscow: BBC. Archived from the original on 25 December 2021. Retrieved 24 December 2021. In recent weeks, Russian tanks have been moving west towards Ukraine once again, prompting fresh, even starker warnings from US intelligence circles that a cross-border offensive could be on the cards.
^"Центр оперативного інформування про безпекову ситуацію поблизу державного кордону України" [Center of Operations informing on the security situation near the Ukrainian state border]. Ministry of Defence of Ukraine. Government of Ukraine. 2 November 2021. Retrieved 19 February 2022. За даними Головного управління розвідки Міністерства оборони, станом на початок листопада 2021 року біля нашого кордону та на тимчасово окупованих територіях Російською Федерацією зосереджено угруповання військ (сил) загальною чисельністю близько 90-та тисяч осіб. До його складу входять війська 8-ї,20-ї армій Південного та Західного військових округів, а також сили та засоби Чорноморського флоту РФ. Крім того, поблизу нашого кордону базуються окремі з'єднання та частини 4-ї,6-ї армій військово-повітряних сил та протиповітряної оборони повітряно-космічних сил збройних сил Російської Федерації. [According to the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defence, as of early October 2021, the Russian Federation has established a grouping of troops (forces) of an estimated 90,000 troops near our border and in the temporarily occupied territories. It includes forces of the 8th and 20th Armies of the Eastern and Western Military Districts, as well as forces and equipment of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. In addition, some units of the 4th and 6th Armies of the Military and Air Defence Forces and the anti-aircraft defense forces of the Russian Federation are based near our cordon.]
^"Interview with Rossiya TV channel". The Kremlin. Moscow: President of Russia. 13 November 2021. Archived from the original on 3 February 2022. Retrieved 20 February 2022. I have not seen such alarmist declarations, so far, at least. But I suppose it is as you say. Indeed, the United States and their NATO allies are presently conducting an unscheduled, and I want to stress that it is unscheduled, drill in the Black Sea.
^Глава разведки Украины назвал протесты в Киеве подготовкой России к военному вторжению [Ukrainian intelligence chief calls protests in Kyiv preparations for Russian military invasion]. Kommersant (in Russian). Kommersant Publishing House. 21 November 2021. Archived from the original on 3 December 2021. Retrieved 23 December 2021. За недавними протестами против вакцинации от COVID-19 в Киеве и другими митингами на Украине стоит Россия — это подготовка к масштабному военному вторжению, заявил руководитель главного управления разведки Министерства обороны Украины Кирилл Буданов. [Translation via DeepL Translator; Photo by the Office of the President of Ukraine: Russia is behind the recent protests against COVID-19 vaccination in Kiev and other rallies in Ukraine in preparation for a large-scale military invasion, said the head of the main intelligence department of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, Kirill Budanov.]
^Solovyov, Vladimir (25 November 2021). Ненормандское положение вещей [The Abnormal State of Affairs]. Kommersant (in Russian). Kommersant Publishing House. Archived from the original on 26 December 2021. Retrieved 23 December 2021. Ожидать активных действий, по его словам, следует в январе-феврале будущего года. [Expect active action, he said, should be in January–February next year.]
^Solovyov, Vladimir; Kovalenko, Marina (3 December 2021). За нашу соседскую родину [For our neighbouring country]. Kommersant (in Russian). No. 221. p. 1. Archived from the original on 26 December 2021. Retrieved 23 December 2021. В Киеве это восприняли как однозначную угрозу. Там с уверенностью говорят о практически неминуемом масштабном конфликте с Россией. Такие опасения 3 декабря высказал министр обороны республики Алексей Резников, выступивший перед депутатами Верховной рады. [In Kyiv, this was perceived as a clear threat. They speak with confidence about an almost inevitable large-scale conflict with Russia. Such fears were expressed on December 3 by the Minister of Defense of the Republic Oleksii Reznikov, who spoke to the deputies of the Verkhovna Rada. "There is a possibility of a large-scale escalation from Russia. The most likely time to achieve readiness for escalation will be the end of January," Mr. Reznikov warned.]
^"Russia builds up forces on Ukrainian border". Politico. Janes. 9 December 2021. Archived from the original on 10 December 2021. Retrieved 30 December 2021. hese units include elements of the 41st Combined Arms Army's 74th and 35th Motorised Brigades, 120th Artillery Brigade, and 119th Missile Brigade, as well as limited elements of the 90th Tank Division's 6th Tank Regiment. Since late November, Janes has identified the 41st Combined Arms Army's 55th Motorised Brigade (Mountain) beginning to deploy over 4,000 km from the Tuva region to Yelnya, including the brigade's three Tigr armoured car battalions and elements of its Nona-SVK self-propelled mortar battalion. ... Janes has identified the likely deployment of several new units to the Crimean Peninsula since the start of the October buildup. This includes elements of the 247th Airborne Regiment, at least one 42nd Motorised Division T-72B3 battalion, a Buk-M2 battalion likely from the 90th Air Defence Brigade, and a 34th Motorised Brigade (Mountain) battalion tactical group. Subsequent video footage indicates at least some of this equipment has since returned to its base in the Caucasus Mountains.
^Batashvili, David (30 January 2022). "Geostrategic Activities". Rondeli Russian Military Digest. No. 118. Rondeli Foundation. Archived from the original on 5 February 2022. Retrieved 11 February 2022. Numerous sources indicated Russian troops' movements in various parts of Russia, in Belarus and in occupied Crimea. As a part of these movements, the Russian Eastern Military District's forces continued to enter Belarus ... the Russian forces already inside or moving into Belarus include those from: the 36th Army's ... the 29th Army's ... the 35th Army's ... the 5th Army's ... the Pacific Fleet's 155th Naval Infantry Brigade ... the 76th Air Assault Division's ... the 98th Airborne Division's ... the 11th Air Assault Brigade ...
^Sanger, David E. (20 January 2022). "Biden Predicts Putin Will Order Ukraine Invasion, but 'Will Regret Having Done It'". The New York Times. Washington D.C.ISSN0362-4331. Retrieved 1 February 2022. President Biden said on Wednesday that he now expected President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia would order an invasion of Ukraine, delivering a grim assessment that the diplomacy and ... 'The answer is that I think he still does not want a full-blown war, No. 1. No. 2, do I think he'll test the West, test the United States and NATO as significantly as he can? Yes, I think he will, but I think he'll pay a serious and dear price for it that he doesn't think now will cost him what it's going to cost him. And I think he will regret having done it.'
^Weymouth, Lally (20 January 2022). "Perspective | Volodymyr Zelensky: 'Everyone will lose' if Russia invades Ukraine". The Washington Post. Nash Holdings. ISSN0190-8286. Archived from the original on 21 January 2022. Retrieved 21 January 2022. I will say realistically if Russia decides to enhance their escalation, of course they are going to do this on those territories where historically there are people who used to have family links to Russia. Kharkiv, which is under Ukraine government control, could be occupied. Russia needs a pretext: They will say that they are protecting the Russian-speaking population ... If we are going to protect ourselves against one of the most powerful armies in the world, then this will be war. And if this will be war, it's going to be a very strong war, and everyone will lose.
^Отряд кораблей ВМФ РФ завершил переход в Севастополь [A detachment of ships of the Russian Navy has completed its passage to Sevastopol]. Izvestia (in Russian). National Media Group. 10 February 2022. Archived from the original on 16 February 2022. Retrieved 27 February 2022. 8 февраля в Минобороны РФ сообщили, что отряд из шести больших десантных кораблей ВМФ России направился в Черное море для учений ... 'Отряд больших десантных кораблей Военно-морского флота России в составе 'Королев', 'Минск', 'Калининград', 'Петр Моргунов', 'Георгий Победоносец' и 'Оленегорский горняк' завершил межфлотский переход вокруг Европы. В настоящий момент корабли заходят в главную базу Черноморского флота — город Севастополь', — говорится в сообщении. [Translated via DeepL Translator; photographs by Paul Lvov of RIA Novosti: On February 8, the Russian Defense Ministry reported that a detachment of six large landing ships of the Russian Navy has headed to the Black Sea for exercises ... 'A detachment of large landing ships of the Russian Navy consisting of the 'Korolev', 'Minsk', 'Kaliningrad', 'Pyotr Morgunov', 'Georgy Pobedonosets' and 'Olenegorsk Miner' has completed an inter-fleet crossing around Europe. At the moment the ships are calling at the main base of the Black Sea Fleet – the city of Sevastopol,' the report said.]
^Российские военные проведут учения с корабельными группами в Черном море [The Russian military will conduct exercises with ship groups in the Black Sea]. Interfax (in Russian). Moscow: Interfax Group. 10 February 2022. Archived from the original on 21 February 2022. Retrieved 28 February 2022. В Черном море пройдут учения, в котором будут задействованы корабельные тактические группы Черноморского флота РФ, сообщила пресс-служба флота в четверг. [Translated: An exercise will be held in the Black Sea, in which naval tactical groups of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation will be involved, the press service of the fleet said on Thursday.]
^Защитить воздушное пространство: как проходят учения 'Союзная решимость – 2022' [Protect airspace: how the 'Allied Resolve – 2022' exercises are going]. Zvezda (in Russian). Russian Ministry of Defence. 10 February 2022. Archived from the original on 13 February 2022. Retrieved 27 February 2022. В Белоруссии стартовали совместные с Россией масштабные маневры 'Союзная решимость – 2022'. Военнослужащие будут тренироваться отражать внешнюю агрессию и вести оборонительные операции, пресекать проникновение диверсантов и перекрывать каналы незаконной поставки оружия. [Translation via Google Translate: Large-scale maneuvers 'Allied Resolve – 2022' jointly with Russia have started in Belarus. The servicemen will train to repel external aggression and conduct defensive operations, prevent the penetration of saboteurs and block the channels of illegal supply of weapons.]
^Herszenhorn, David M. (11 February 2022). "US warns war could be 'imminent' in Ukraine". Politico. Axel Springer SE. Archived from the original on 26 February 2022. Retrieved 28 February 2022. Contribution from Erin Banco, Jacopo Barigazzi, Lili Bayer, Quint Forgey, Cristina Gallardo, Jakob Hanke Vela, Paul McLeary, Nahal Toosi, Hans von der Burchard and Giorgio Leali; Photograph by Sergey Bobok (Agence-France Presse) via Getty Images. [U].S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan declined to describe specific intelligence, but insisted the attack could begin before the end of the Winter Olympics in Beijing on February 20.
^Baumgärtner, Maik; Gebauer, Matthias; Knobbe, Martin; Schmid, Fidelius (11 February 2022). "CIA rechnet mit russischem Angriff kommende Woche" [CIA expects Russian attack next week]. Der Spiegel (in German). Retrieved 13 February 2022. Als Datum für den möglichen Beginn der Invasion wurde der 16. Februar genannt. [Translation: February 16 was mentioned as a possible date for the start of the invasion.]
^Adams, Paul (12 February 2022). "Ukraine tensions: A dozen nations tell citizens to leave Ukraine". BBC Online. BBC. Archived from the original on 23 February 2022. Retrieved 28 February 2022. Photographs by Reuters. Many countries, including Australia, Italy, Israel, the Netherlands and Japan have told their citizens to leave Ukraine. Some have also evacuated diplomatic staff and their families.
^Олексій Резніков провів телефонну розмову з Міністром оборони Республіки Білорусь Віктором Хреніним [Telephone conversation between Oleksii Reznikov and Viktor Khrenin, the Ukrainian Defence Minister]. Ukrainian Ministry of Defence (in Ukrainian). Government of Ukraine. 14 February 2022. Archived from the original on 14 February 2022. Retrieved 14 February 2022. З метою зміцнення взаємної довіри домовлено про візит аташе з питань оборони Республіки Білорусь в Україні на заходи навчань «Заметіль – 2022», а також про візит аташе з питань оборони України у Республіці Білорусь на заходи білорусько-російських навчань «Союзна рішучість - 2022». [Translated: In order to strengthen mutual trust, the visit of the Defense Attaché of the Republic of Belarus to Ukraine to the "Snowstorm - 2022" exercise, as well as the visit of the Defense Attaché of Ukraine to the Republic of Belarus to the Belarusian-Russian exercise "Union Determination - 2022" were agreed upon.]
^Зведення про ситуацію в районі проведення операції Об'єднаних сил станом на 07:00 20 лютого 2022 року [Summary of the situation in the area of the Joint Forces operation as of 07:00 on February 20, 2022]. Ukrainian Ministry of Defence (in Ukrainian). Government of Ukraine. 20 February 2022. Retrieved 20 February 2022. Внаслідок обстрілів двоє українських військовослужбовців отримали осколкові поранення несумісні з життям. Четверо військовослужбовців отримали поранення різної ступені важкості та знаходяться у лікувальних закладах. Один військовослужбовець отримав бойове травмування. [As a result of the shelling, two Ukrainian servicemen received shrapnel wounds incompatible with life. Four servicemen received injuries of varying severity and are in medical facilities. One serviceman received a combat injury.]
^Россия и Белоруссия продолжат проверку сил реагирования Союзного государства [Russia and Belarus will continue to test the reaction forces of the Union State]. TASS (in Russian). Minsk: Government of Russia. 20 February 2022. Retrieved 20 February 2022. "В связи с нарастанием военной активности у внешних границ Союзного государства и обострением ситуации на Донбассе президентами Республики Беларусь и Российской Федерации принято решение проверку сил реагирования Союзного государства продолжить", - заявил белорусский министр обороны Виктор Хренин. [Photograph by Petr Kovalev (TASS). Translated: In connection with the increase in military activity near the external borders of the Union State and the aggravation of the situation in the Donbass, the Presidents of the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation decided to continue testing the response forces of the Union State," Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin said.]
^Подведены предварительные итоги совместного оперативного учения 'Союзная решимость-2022' [Preliminary results of joint operational exercise "Allied Resolve-2022" announced]. Ministry of Defence of the Republic of Belarus (in Russian). Government of Belarus. 20 February 2022. Archived from the original on 23 February 2022. Retrieved 20 February 2022. В связи с нарастанием военной активности у внешних границ Союзного государства и обострением ситуации на Донбассе, Президентами Республики Беларусь и Российской Федерации принято решение проверку сил реагирования Союзного государства продолжить. [Translation via Google Translate; Photograph by Yan Gorbanyuk: In connection with the increase in military activity near the external borders of the Union State and the aggravation of the situation in the Donbass, the Presidents of the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation decided to continue testing the response forces of the Union State.]
^"Letter from Ambassador Crocker to U.N. High Commissioner Bachelet"(PDF). The New York Times. 18 February 2022. Archived(PDF) from the original on 1 March 2022. Retrieved 4 March 2022. [w]e have credible information [...] indicates Russian forces are creating lists of identified Ukrainians to be killed or sent to camps following a military occupation. [R]ussian forces will likely use lethal measures to disperse peaceful protests or otherwise counter peaceful exercises of perceived resistance from civilian populations.
^Latukhina, Kira (9 December 2021). Путин заявил о геноциде на Донбассе [Putin spoke about the genocide in the Donbass]. Rossiyskaya Gazeta (in Russian). Government of Russia. Retrieved 10 February 2022. Президент назвал русофобию первым шагом к геноциду. [Translated: The President called Russophobia the first step towards genocide.]
^Захист кордону і критичної інфраструктури, протидія ДРГ: на півдні України оголосили збори підрозділів тероборони [Protection of borders and critical infrastructure, counteraction of DRG: meeting of terrorist defence units announced in the south of Ukraine] (in Ukrainian). Espreso TV. 6 April 2021. Archived from the original on 7 April 2021. Retrieved 31 May 2021. Photograph by dpsu.gov.ua: У південних прикордонних районах України оголосили збори тероборони для посилення і захисту держкордону, охорони і оборони критичних об'єктів і боротьби з диверсійно-розвідувальними групами. [In the southern border areas of Ukraine announced a meeting of terrorist defense to strengthen and protect the state border, protection and defense of critical objects and the fight against sabotage and reconnaissance groups.]
^Kramer, Andrew E. (26 December 2021). "Training Civilians, Ukraine Nurtures a Resistance in Waiting". The New York Times. Kyiv. ISSN0362-4331. Retrieved 31 January 2022. The programs are part of the country's strategic defense plan in the event of a potential invasion by Russia — to foster a civilian resistance that can carry on the fight if the Ukrainian military is overwhelmed. [...] He described how the volunteers might resist based on the tactics of Islamist militias in Aleppo, Syria.
^Lazarova, Sofia, ed. (24 January 2022). США передали Украине многоцелевые гранатометы SMAW: на что они способны [Ukraine receives SMAW grenade launchers from United States]. New Voice (in Ukrainian). Media DK. Archived from the original on 23 January 2022. Retrieved 24 January 2022. M141 Bunker Defeat Munition действует таким Украина получила новую партию военной помощи от Вашингтона. Речь идет о ручных одноразовых гранатометах M141 Bunker Defeat Munition или SMAW-D. Кроме того, была передана и партия ПТРК Javelin. [Ukraine has received a new batch of military aid from Washington. These are M141 Bunker Defeat Munition or SMAW-D disposable grenade launchers. In addition, the Javelin ATGM party was transferred.]
^ФСБ сообщила о попадании снаряда в погранпункт на границе с ДНР [The FSB reported that a shell hit the border checkpoint on the border with the DPR]. RBK Daily (in Russian). RBK Group. 21 February 2022. ISSN1991-0703. OCLC849495462. Archived from the original on 22 February 2022. Retrieved 22 February 2022. В 9:50 выпущенным с Украины снарядом полностью разрушен российский пограничный пункт в Ростовской области в 150 метрах от границы, пострадавших нет, сообщили РБК в ФСБ. [At 9:50 a.m., a projectile fired from Ukraine completely destroyed a Russian border checkpoint in the Rostov region, 150 meters from the border, there were no casualties, the FSB told RBC.]
^Schwirtz, Michael; Troianovski, Anton; Al-Hlou, Yousur; Froliak, Masha; Entous, Adam; Gibbons-Neff, Thomas (17 December 2022). "Putin's War: The Inside Story of a Catastrophe". The New York Times. Archived from the original on 17 December 2022.
^"French President Macron says Vladimir Putin told him Russia won't escalate Ukraine crisis". The Indian Express. 9 February 2022. French President Emmanuel Macron said Tuesday that Russian President Vladimir Putin told him that Moscow would not further escalate the Ukraine crisis. Macron also said it would take time to find a diplomatic solution to the rising tensions, which represent the biggest security crisis between Russia and the West since the Cold War.
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