合取谬误

合取謬誤(conjunction fallacy),又稱為交集偏誤、連言偏誤,是認為多重條件「甲且乙」比單一條件「甲」更可能發生的認知偏誤,也是一種機率謬誤[1][2]典型實驗為「琳達問題(Linda Problem)」[3][4]

示例

小明經常對男生做出性暗示的笑,且經常對男生做出親密的肢體動作,試問那一種可能性較高?

  1. 小明是男性
  2. 小明是男同性戀

如果認為是2.,就犯了合取謬誤。男同性戀意味著是「男性」且是「同性戀」,無論如何,小明符合「男性」的機會一定比符合「男性」又符合「同性戀」的機率更大。

外部連結

參考資料

  1. ^ Tversky, Amos; Kahneman, Daniel. Judgments of and by representativeness (报告). Stanford University. 1981. 
  2. ^ Tversky, A.; Kahneman, D. Judgments of and by representativeness. Kahneman, D.; Slovic, P.; Tversky, A. (编). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. 1982. ISBN 0-521-28414-7. 
  3. ^ 遠見天下文化出版股份有限公司. 一個叫「琳達問題」心理學實驗 | 遠見雜誌. 遠見雜誌 - 前進的動力. 2018-04-17 [2023-07-05]. (原始内容存档于2023-07-05) (中文(臺灣)). 
  4. ^ 行銷資料科學. 何謂合取謬誤(Conjunction Fallacy)?. Marketingdatascience. 2021-06-24 [2023-07-05]. (原始内容存档于2023-07-05) (英语). 


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