2020 United States Senate election in Michigan

2020 United States Senate election in Michigan
← 2014 November 3, 2020 2026 →
 
Nominee Gary Peters John James
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 2,734,568 2,642,233
Percentage 49.90% 48.22%
Peters:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
James:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%      No data
U.S. senator before election

Gary Peters
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Gary Peters
Democratic

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The 2020 United States Senate election in Michigan was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent Michigan. It was held concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

This race was one of two-Democratic held U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2020 in a state Donald Trump won in 2016.[1] The primary was held on August 4.[2]

The filing deadline for candidates to run in the primary was April 21[3] but was extended to May 8 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.[4] The election was considered a potential upset pickup by the Republicans due to the state's demographic trends, Donald Trump's upset win in 2016, and Republican candidate John James's outperformance of polling expectations despite losing the state's Senate election in 2018. However, most analysts still believed Gary Peters to be the more likely winner.

Peters won re-election to a second term, though by a much closer margin than expected.[5] James, who outperformed Trump on the same ballot, initially refused to concede,[6] baselessly claiming in a statement published to his campaign website two days after the election that he had been "cheated" out of winning the election. The statement alleged that there were "deep concerns that millions of Michiganders may have been disenfranchised by a dishonest few who cheat.".[7] On November 24, James conceded the race exactly three weeks after election day.[8] With a margin of 1.68%, this election was the second-closest race of the 2020 Senate election cycle, behind only the regularly-scheduled election in Georgia.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Declined

Endorsements

Gary Peters

Organizations

Democratic primary results

Democratic primary results[32]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Gary Peters (incumbent) 1,180,780 100.0%
Total votes 1,180,780 100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Disqualified

Declined

Endorsements

John James

Individuals

Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		John
James 		Bill
Schuette 		Undecided
June 6, 2019 Schuette announces that he will not run by endorsing James
Target Insyght[45] April 22–25, 2019 296 (LV)[b] – 59% 15% 26%

Results

Republican primary results[32]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican John James 1,005,315 100.0%
Total votes 1,005,315 100.0%

Other candidates

Communist Party

Withdrawn

Green Party

Nominee

  • Marcia Squier (2018 Green Party nominee for US Senate)[48]

Natural Law Party

Nominee

U.S. Taxpayers Party

Nominee

  • Valerie L. Willis (switched from Republican candidacy after being disqualified for the Republican primary)[37]

Independents

  • Leonard Gadzinski[49]

Withdrawn

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[50] Lean D October 29, 2020
Inside Elections[51] Lean D October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[52] Lean D November 2, 2020
Daily Kos[53] Lean D October 30, 2020
Politico[54] Lean D November 2, 2020
RCP[55] Tossup October 23, 2020
DDHQ[56] Likely D November 3, 2020
538[57] Likely D November 2, 2020
Economist[58] Likely D November 2, 2020

Endorsements

Gary Peters (D)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

U.S. senators

Organizations

Newspapers

Labor unions

Newspapers

John James (R)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

U.S. representatives

Newspapers

Individuals

Organizations

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

John James vs. Gary Peters
Source of poll aggregation Dates administered Dates updated Gary Peters John James Other/Undecided[c] Margin
270 To Win[98] November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 49.8% 42.2% 8.0% Peters +7.6
Real Clear Politics[99] November 1, 2020 November 3, 2020 49.8% 44.4% 5.8% Peters +5.4
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Gary
Peters (D) 		John
James (R) 		Other/
Undecided
Research Co.[100] October 31 – November 1, 2020 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 52% 37% 12%[d]
Change Research/CNBC[101] October 29 – November 1, 2020 383 (LV) ± 5.01% 51% 46% 3%[e]
Swayable[102] October 27 – November 1, 2020 393 (LV) ± 6.6% 54% 46% –
Ipsos/Reuters[103] October 27 – November 1, 2020 654 (LV) ± 4.4% 51% 44% 5%[f]
Morning Consult[104] October 22–31, 2020 1,736 (LV) ± 2.0% 49% 43% –
Emerson College[105] October 29–30, 2020 700 (LV) ± 3.4% 52%[g] 46% 2%[h]
Public Policy Polling (D)[106][A] October 29–30, 2020 745 (V) ± 3.6% 54% 44% 2%[i]
Targoz Market Research/PollSmart[107] October 25–30, 2020 993 (LV) – 54% 43% 2%[j]
CNN/SSRS[108] October 23–30, 2020 907 (LV) ± 3.8% 52% 40% 7%[k]
Mitchell Research (R)[109] October 29, 2020 817 (LV) ± 3.43% 50% 45% 5%[l]
RMG Research[110] October 27–29, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 50%[m] 41% 9%[n]
52%[o] 39% 9%[p]
48%[q] 42% 9%[r]
EPIC-MRA[111] October 25–28, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 47% 42% 11%[s]
Kiaer Research[112] October 21–28, 2020 669 (LV) ± 5.6% 51% 38% 11%[t]
Mitchell Research (R)[113] October 25–27, 2020 759 (LV) ± 3.56% 52% 43% 3%[u]
Tarrance Group (R)[114][B] October 24–26, 2020[v] – (V)[w] ± 4.3% 48% 46% 1%[x]
Swayable[115] October 23–26, 2020 365 (LV) ± 6.9% 58% 42% –
Siena College/NYT Upshot[116] October 23–26, 2020 856 (LV) ± 3.8% 49% 41% 8%[y]
Ipsos/Reuters[117] October 20–26, 2020 652 (LV) ± 4.4% 50% 44% 6%[z]
Glengariff Group[118] October 23–25, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 48% 39% 9%[aa]
ABC/Washington Post[119] October 20–25, 2020 789 (LV) ± 4% 52% 46% 2%[ab]
Gravis Marketing[120] October 24, 2020 679 (LV) ± 3.8% 52% 41% 7%[ac]
Public Policy Polling (D)[121][C] October 21–22, 2020 804 (V) – 52% 43% 6%[ad]
Citizen Data[122] October 17–20, 2020 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 46% 42% 12%[ae]
FOX News[123] October 17–20, 2020 1,032 (LV) ± 3% 49% 41% 9%[af]
Reuters/Ipsos[124] October 14–20, 2020 686 (LV) ± 4.3% 50% 45% 5%[ag]
Morning Consult[104] October 11–20, 2020 1,717 (LV) ± 2.4% 48% 42% –
Change Research/CNBC[125] October 16–19, 2020 718 (LV)[ah] – 50% 45% –
EPIC-MRA[126] October 15–19, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 45% 39% 16%[ai]
Mitchell Research (R)[127] October 18, 2020 900 (LV) ± 3.27% 49% 43% 8%[aj]
Trafalgar Group (R)/Restoration PAC (Hyperpartisan)[128][129][96][130][D] October 15–18, 2020 1,034 (LV) ± 2.97% 48% 50% 3%[ak]
Data For Progress[131] October 15–18, 2020 830 (LV) ± 3.4% 48% 43% 9%[al]
HarrisX/The Hill[132] October 12–15, 2020 1,289 (LV) – 50%[am] 43% –
Trafalgar Group (R)[133] October 11–15, 2020 1,018 (LV) ± 2.99% 47% 48% 5%[an]
Reuters/Ipsos[134] October 7–13, 2020 620 (LV) ± 4.5% 52% 44% 4%[ao]
EPIC-MRA[135] October 8–12, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 45% 39% 16%[ap]
Siena College/NYT Upshot[136] October 6–11, 2020 614 (LV) ± 4.6% 43% 42% 15%[aq]
Morning Consult[137] October 2–11, 2020 1,710 (LV) ± 2.4% 49% 40% –
YouGov/CBS[138] October 6–9, 2020 1,181 (LV) ± 3.3% 47% 44% 9%[ar]
Baldwin Wallace University[139] September 30 – October 8, 2020 1,134 (LV) ± 3.2% 48% 42% 10%[as]
Emerson College[140] October 6–7, 2020 716 (LV) ± 3.6% 51% 41% 8%[at]
Opinion Insight/American Action Forum[141][E] October 3–6, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.46% 49%[au] 42% 8%[av]
Reuters/Ipsos[142] September 29 – October 6, 2020 709 (LV) ± 4.2% 50% 43% 7%[aw]
Tarrance Group (R)[143][B] October 3–5, 2020 605 (RV) ± 4.1% 48% 46% –
Change Research/CNBC[144] October 2–4, 2020 676 (LV) – 51% 43% 6%[ax]
Glengariff Group[145] September 30 – October 3, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 45% 40% 16%[ay]
Public Policy Polling (D)[146][F] September 30 – October 1, 2020 746 (V) – 48% 41% 10%[az]
Trafalgar Group (R)/Restoration PAC (Hyperpartisan)[147][148][G] September 26–28, 2020 1,042 (LV) ± 2.95% 48% 47% 5%[ba]
Trafalgar Group (R)[149] September 23–25, 2020 1,047 (LV) ± 2.95% 47% 47% 6%[bb]
Marist College/NBC[150] September 19–23, 2020 799 (LV) ± 4.3% 49% 44% 7%[bc]
Baldwin Wallace University[151] September 9–22, 2020 1,001 (LV) ± 3.6% 46% 41% 13%
Change Research/CNBC[152] September 18–20, 2020 568 (LV) – 50% 44% 5%[bd]
Morning Consult[153] September 11–20, 2020 1,376 (LV) ± (2% – 7%) 47%[be] 40% –
Hart Research Associates (D)[154][H] September 17–19, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 50% 42% –
Data for Progress (D)[155] September 14–19, 2020 455 (LV) ± 4.6% 47% 42% 12%[bf]
Marketing Resource Group (R)[156] September 14–19, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 40% 20%[bg]
Morning Consult[157] September 8–17, 2020 1,451 (LV)[bh] ± (2% – 4%) 48% 40% –
Ipsos/Reuters[158] September 11–16, 2020 637 (LV) ± 4.4% 49% 43% 7%[bi]
EPIC-MRA[159] September 10–15, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 45% 41% 14%[bj]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[160] September 12–14, 2020 930 (LV) ± 3.21% 51% 35% 13%[bk]
Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group[161][I] August 28 – September 8, 2020 1,600 (LV) ± 2.5% 45% 41% 14%[bl]
Change Research/CNBC[162] September 4–6, 2020 876 (LV) ± 3.2% 50% 46% 5%[bm]
Rasmussen Reports[163] September 2–3, 2020 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 40% 13%[bn]
Glengariff Group/Detroit News[164] September 1–3, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 41% 14%[bo]
Tarrance Group (R)[165][B] September 1–3, 2020 569 (RV) – 47% 46% 7%[bp]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[166] August 30 – September 3, 2020 967 (LV) ± 3.2% 50% 38% 12%[bq]
Opinion Insight/American Action Forum[167][E] August 30 – September 2, 2020 802 (LV) ± 3.46% 49%[br] 42% 8%[bs]
Public Policy Polling (D)[168][F] August 28–29, 2020 897 (V) ± 3.2% 47% 39% 14%[bt]
Change Research/CNBC[169] August 21–23, 2020 809 (LV) ± 3.4% 50% 45% 6%[bu]
Trafalgar Group (R)[170] August 14–23, 2020 1,048 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 48% 5%[bv]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[171] August 16–18, 2020 812 (LV) ± 3.4% 48% 39% 13%[bw]
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC[172][J](Hyperpartisan)[173] August 11–15, 2020 600 (LV) – 53% 39% 8%[bx]
Tarrance Group (R)[165][B] August 10–13, 2020 602 (RV) ± 4.1% 49% 44% 7%
Change Research/CNBC[174] August 7–9, 2020 413 (LV) ± 4.6% 48% 45% 7%[by]
EPIC-MRA[175] July 25–30, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 40% 10%[bz]
Public Policy Polling (D)[176][F] July 28–29, 2020 876 (V) ± 3.2% 47% 39% 13%[ca]
Change Research/CNBC[177] July 24–26, 2020 413 (LV) ± 4.8% 48% 44% 8%
Morning Consult[178] July 17–26, 2020 1,320 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 35% 16%
CNN/SSRS[179] July 18–24, 2020 927 (RV) ± 3.8% 54% 38% 8%[cb]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[180] July 19–23, 2020 811 (LV) ± 3.2% 52% 35% 13%[cc]
Gravis Marketing[181][182] July 22, 2020 754 (LV) ± 3.6% 49% 39% 11%[cd]
Marketing Resource Group (R)[183] July 19–21, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 34% 26%[ce]
FOX News[184] July 18–20, 2020 756 (RV) ± 3.5% 48% 38% 15%[cf]
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan)[185][186] July 13–16, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 51% 40% 9%[cg]
Spry Strategies (R)[187][K] July 11–16, 2020 600 (LV) ± 3.7% 47% 37% 15%[ch]
Change Research/CNBC[188] July 10–12, 2020 824 (LV) ± 2.8% 50% 43% 6%[ci]
Public Policy Polling (D)[189][L] July 9–10, 2020 1,041 (V) ± 3.2% 49% 42% 9%
Change Research/CNBC[190] June 26–28, 2020 699 (LV)[cj] ± 3.9% 49% 42% 9%[ck]
Public Policy Polling (D)[191][F] June 26–27, 2020 1,237 (V) ± 3.2% 47% 39% 14%[cl]
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan)[192][193][102][194][195][196][197][198][199][98][100] June 17–20, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 51% 38% 12%[cm]
NYT Upshot/Siena College[200] June 8–17, 2020 610 (RV) ± 4.3% 41% 31% 29%[cn]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[201] June 14–16, 2020 826 (LV) ± 3.4% 50% 32% 18%[co]
Marketing Resource Group (R)[202] June 12–15, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 36% 30% 33%[cp]
American Greatness/TIPP (R)[203] June 9–12, 2020 907 (RV) ± 3.3% 47% 35% 17%[cq]
Kiaer Research[204] May 31 – June 7, 2020 543 (LV) ± 6.4% 48% 32% 20%[cr]
EPIC-MRA[205] May 30 – June 3, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 51% 36% 13%[cs]
Public Policy Polling (D)[206][F] May 29–30, 2020 1,582 (V) ± 2.5% 48% 39% 13%[ct]
Change Research/Crooked Media[207] May 11–17, 2020 3,070 (LV) ± 2.6% 48% 43% 9%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan)[208][209][109][210][211][212][213][214][215][99][101][96] May 1–5, 2020 600 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 36% 17%[cu]
Public Policy Polling (D)[216] April 28–29, 2020 1,270 (V) ± 3.2% 46% 37% 17%
FOX News[217] April 18–21, 2020 801 (RV) ± 3.5% 46% 36% 13%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan)[218][219] April 9–18, 2020 600 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 37% 17%
Public Policy Polling (D)[220] March 31 – April 1, 2020 1,019 (V) ± 3.1% 45% 38% 17%
Spry Strategies (R)[221] March 30 – April 1, 2020 602 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 40% 18%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan)[222][223][117][224][225][226][227][228][229][101][103][98] March 12–21, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 39% 13%
Marketing Resource Group (R)[230] March 16–20, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 35% 17%[cv]
Firehouse/0ptimus[231] March 5–7, 2020 550 (LV) ± 5.0% 40% 41% 11%
Quinnipiac University[232] February 12–18, 2020 845 (RV) ± 3.4% 45% 39% 15%
Baldwin Wallace University[233] January 8–20, 2020 1,023 (RV) ± 3.1% 42% 32% 26%
Glengariff Group[234] January 3–7, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 40% 16%
Emerson College[235] October 31 – November 3, 2019 1,051 (RV) ± 3.5% 46% 40% 14%
Hodas & Associates Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan)[236][237] October 10–16, 2019[cw] 600 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 35% 17%
Marketing Resource Group (R)[238] October 7–10, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 40% 17%
Target-Insyght/MIRS News[239] September 24–26, 2019 804 (LV) ± 3.5% 53% 37% 10%
Denno Research/Vanguard PA/PSC (D)[240] September 21–24, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 40% 39% 21%
Target Insyght[45] April 22–25, 2019 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 36% 14%
Emerson College[241] March 7–10, 2019 743 (LV) ± 3.5% 44% 43% 14%
Hypothetical polling

The following poll assumes neither Republican candidate would withdraw after their primary. with Bob Carr and John James

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Gary
Peters (D) 		Bob
Carr (R) 		John
James (R) 		Undecided
Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes[242] March 17–25, 2020 822 (RV) ± 3.8% 40% 6%[cx] 27% 28%

with Bill Schuette

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Gary
Peters (D) 		Bill
Schuette (R) 		Undecided
Target Insyght[45] April 22–25, 2019 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 51% 32% 17%

with Gary Peters and Generic Republican

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Gary
Peters (D) 		Generic
Republican 		Undecided
Denno Research/Vanguard PA (D)[243] May 8–10, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 36% 21%

with Gary Peters and Generic Opponent

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Gary
Peters (D) 		Generic
Opponent 		Undecided
MRG[244] Jun 12–15, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 19.2% 30.3%[cy] 50.5%

with Generic Democrat and Generic Republican

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Generic
Democrat 		Generic
Republican 		Other Undecided
Glengariff Group/Detroit News[245] October 23–25, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 47% 41% – –
Ipsos/Reuters[158] September 11–16, 2020 637 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 43% 2%[cz] 8%[da]
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC[172][M] August 11–15, 2020 600 (LV) – 48% 39% – 13%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan)[185][186] July 13–16, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 38% – 13%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R)[246] June 17–20, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 34% – 15%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan)[208] May 1–5, 2020 600 (LV) ± 3.0% 43% 38% 15%[db] –
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan)[247] April 9–18, 2020 600 (LV) ± 3.0% 40% 44% 16%[dc] –
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan)[248] March 12–21, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 42% 12%[dd] –

Results

Polls indicated that the race would be close, with Peters leading in most polls. In 2018, Michigan voters approved "no reason required" absentee balloting.[249] The COVID-19 pandemic led to a record number of absentee voters.[250] Michigan law at that time did not allow for early tabulating of absentee ballots,[251][252] so the absentee ballots were tabulated after completing the tabulating of ballots from polling places. This created a "mirage" effect because more Republicans voted on election day, and more Democrats voted by absentee ballot.[253] James was ahead when the counting of election day ballots was completed. When the absentee ballots were tabulated, and with 98% of the votes counted, Peters was declared the winner by a tight margin of one percentage point after a day of waiting.[254] When the results were certified on November 23, Peters' margin of victory was 1.68%.[255]

Peters was able to win re-election by running up a big margin in Wayne County, home of Detroit, winning over 67% of the vote there. He also managed to improve his performance in the reliably Democratic Washtenaw County, home of Ann Arbor, improving on his 2014 election by almost three percentage points. He also came within just 1,139 votes of winning Kent County, home of Grand Rapids, having lost the county by over eight percentage points six years prior. Peters was sworn in for his second term on January 3, 2021. His term will expire on January 3, 2027.

African-Americans in Detroit were a major demographic contributing to Peters winning the election.[256]

James would later be elected as a representative in Michigan's 10th congressional district in 2022.

2020 United States Senate election in Michigan[257]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Gary Peters (incumbent) 2,734,568 49.90% −4.71%
Republican John James 2,642,233 48.22% +6.89%
Constitution Valerie Willis 50,597 0.92% −0.28%
Green Marcia Squier 39,217 0.72% −0.12%
Natural Law Doug Dern 13,093 0.24% N/A
Write-in 12 0.00% ±0.00%
Total votes 5,479,720 100.0%
Democratic hold

By county

By county
County[258] Gary Peters
Democratic 		John James
Republican 		Valerie Willis
Constitution 		Marcia Squier
Green 		Doug Dern
Natural Law 		Write-in Margin Total
votes
# % # % # % # % # % # % # %
Alcona 2,284 32.64 4,614 65.94 50 0.72 34 0.49 15 0.21 0 0.00 -2,330 -33.30 6,997
Alger 2,089 41.11 2,919 57.44 36 0.71 31 0.61 7 0.14 0 0.00 -830 -16.33 5,082
Allegan 22,939 34.52 42,362 63.76 594 0.89 416 0.63 132 0.20 2 0.00 -19,423 -29.23 66,445
Alpena 6,273 37.40 10,257 61.16 119 0.71 82 0.49 40 0.24 0 0.00 -3,984 -23.76 16,771
Antrim 5,758 36.27 9,924 62.51 82 0.52 86 0.54 27 0.17 0 0.00 -4,166 -26.24 15,877
Arenac 3,085 35.41 5,443 62.48 103 1.18 48 0.55 33 0.38 0 0.00 -2,358 -27.07 8,712
Baraga 1,528 38.20 2,409 60.22 31 0.77 23 0.58 9 0.23 0 0.00 -881 -22.02 4,000
Barry 11,369 31.96 23,499 66.06 366 1.03 241 0.68 95 0.27 0 0.00 -12,130 -34.10 35,570
Bay 27,072 45.52 31,314 52.65 561 0.94 382 0.64 143 0.24 0 0.00 -4,242 -7.13 59,472
Benzie 5,328 43.78 6,692 54.99 58 0.48 66 0.54 25 0.21 0 0.00 -1,364 -11.21 12,169
Berrien 34,777 42.87 44,801 55.23 764 0.94 568 0.70 209 0.26 0 0.00 -10,024 -12.36 81,119
Branch 6,119 30.17 13,682 67.47 278 1.37 132 0.65 69 0.34 0 0.00 -7,563 -37.29 20,280
Calhoun 28,145 42.93 35,786 54.59 867 1.32 547 0.83 211 0.32 0 0.00 -7,641 -11.66 65,556
Cass 8,565 33.13 16,814 65.04 253 0.98 161 0.62 58 0.22 0 0.00 -8,249 -31.91 25,851
Charlevoix 6,664 39.46 10,030 59.39 83 0.49 82 0.49 29 0.17 0 0.00 -3,366 -19.93 16,888
Cheboygan 5,475 34.80 10,026 63.72 121 0.77 82 0.52 30 0.19 0 0.00 -4,551 -28.92 15,734
Chippewa 6,729 38.48 10,497 60.02 128 0.73 102 0.58 33 0.19 0 0.00 -3,768 -21.54 17,489
Clare 5,372 33.35 10,468 64.99 125 0.78 96 0.60 47 0.29 0 0.00 -5,096 -31.64 16,108
Clinton 21,490 45.32 25,269 53.29 304 0.64 266 0.56 86 0.18 0 0.00 -3,779 -7.97 47,415
Crawford 2,653 34.10 5,021 64.54 52 0.67 34 0.44 20 0.26 0 0.00 -2,368 -30.44 7,780
Delta 7,827 37.42 12,828 61.33 126 0.60 97 0.46 39 0.19 0 0.00 -5,001 -23.91 20,917
Dickinson 4,881 33.69 9,431 65.10 88 0.61 65 0.45 21 0.15 0 0.00 -4,550 -31.41 14,486
Eaton 31,460 49.47 30,876 48.56 642 1.01 451 0.71 158 0.25 0 0.00 584 0.92 63,587
Emmet 9,216 41.85 12,506 56.79 97 0.44 152 0.69 51 0.23 0 0.00 -3,290 -14.94 22,022
Genesee 120,380 54.94 94,505 43.13 2,210 1.01 1,509 0.69 506 0.23 0 0.00 25,875 11.81 219,110
Gladwin 4,905 34.15 9,245 64.36 119 0.83 59 0.41 36 0.25 0 0.00 -4,340 -30.21 14,364
Gogebic 3,556 43.73 4,436 54.55 64 0.79 58 0.71 18 0.22 0 0.00 -880 -10.82 8,132
Grand Traverse 27,291 45.61 31,792 53.13 269 0.45 397 0.66 91 0.15 0 0.00 -4,501 -7.52 59,840
Gratiot 6,856 36.18 11,746 61.99 165 0.87 126 0.66 55 0.29 0 0.00 -4,890 -25.81 18,948
Hillsdale 6,237 27.19 16,227 70.73 251 1.09 154 0.67 73 0.32 0 0.00 -9,990 -43.54 22,942
Houghton 7,941 43.28 10,151 55.32 89 0.49 142 0.77 27 0.15 0 0.00 -2,210 -12.04 18,350
Huron 6,021 33.49 11,730 65.25 115 0.64 65 0.36 45 0.25 0 0.00 -5,709 -31.76 17,976
Ingham 92,378 64.35 48,378 33.70 1,260 0.88 1,218 0.85 323 0.22 0 0.00 44,000 30.65 143,557
Ionia 10,639 33.50 20,361 64.10 436 1.37 239 0.75 87 0.27 0 0.00 -9,722 -30.61 31,762
Iosco 5,804 38.35 9,040 59.73 153 1.01 95 0.63 43 0.28 0 0.00 -3,236 -21.38 15,135
Iron 2,554 38.01 4,063 60.47 51 0.76 39 0.58 12 0.18 0 0.00 -1,509 -22.46 6,719
Isabella 13,849 47.62 14,673 50.45 243 0.84 233 0.80 87 0.30 0 0.00 -824 -2.83 29,085
Jackson 32,649 40.97 45,054 56.54 1,096 1.38 620 0.78 262 0.33 0 0.00 -12,405 -15.57 79,681
Kalamazoo 78,842 55.44 60,227 42.35 1,371 0.96 1,456 1.02 318 0.22 1 0.00 18,615 13.09 142,215
Kalkaska 3,013 28.66 7,328 69.70 75 0.71 70 0.67 27 0.26 0 0.00 -4,315 -41.04 10,513
Kent 175,256 48.86 176,795 49.29 2,948 0.82 2,956 0.82 722 0.20 0 0.00 -1,539 -0.43 358,677
Keweenaw 686 44.69 837 54.53 1 0.07 8 0.52 3 0.19 0 0.00 -151 -9.84 1,535
Lake 2,286 36.73 3,804 61.12 85 1.37 28 0.45 21 0.34 0 0.00 -1,518 -24.39 6,224
Lapeer 16,590 31.94 34,340 66.12 581 1.12 283 0.54 143 0.28 0 0.00 -17,750 -34.18 51,937
Leelanau 8,277 49.17 8,380 49.78 61 0.36 100 0.59 17 0.10 0 0.00 -103 -0.61 16,835
Lenawee 19,767 37.64 31,659 60.28 539 1.03 413 0.79 139 0.26 0 0.00 -11,892 -22.64 52,517
Livingston 46,118 36.68 77,802 61.89 845 0.67 702 0.56 250 0.20 0 0.00 -31,684 -25.20 125,717
Luce 855 28.74 2,070 69.58 23 0.77 16 0.54 11 0.37 0 0.00 -1,215 -40.84 2,975
Mackinac 2,638 37.77 4,263 61.03 43 0.62 33 0.47 8 0.11 0 0.00 -1,625 -23.26 6,985
Macomb 224,448 46.14 252,052 51.81 5,111 1.05 3,532 0.73 1,334 0.27 5 0.00 -27,604 -5.67 486,482
Manistee 5,995 41.17 8,356 57.38 101 0.69 81 0.56 30 0.21 0 0.00 -2,361 -16.21 14,563
Marquette 20,408 54.89 16,247 43.70 179 0.48 302 0.81 42 0.11 0 0.00 4,161 11.19 37,178
Mason 6,660 38.82 10,238 59.67 114 0.66 111 0.65 35 0.20 0 0.00 -3,578 -20.85 17,158
Mecosta 7,228 34.66 13,275 63.65 167 0.80 143 0.69 43 0.21 0 0.00 -6,047 -28.99 20,856
Menominee 4,230 34.49 7,795 63.56 128 1.04 76 0.62 35 0.29 0 0.00 -3,565 -29.07 12,264
Midland 19,927 40.96 28,057 57.67 323 0.66 240 0.49 102 0.21 0 0.00 -8,130 -16.71 48,649
Missaukee 1,999 22.96 6,598 75.78 45 0.52 49 0.56 16 0.18 0 0.00 -4,599 -52.82 8,707
Monroe 32,721 38.39 50,580 59.34 1,009 1.18 638 0.75 284 0.33 0 0.00 -17,859 -20.95 85,232
Montcalm 9,714 30.71 21,146 66.86 430 1.36 211 0.67 127 0.40 0 0.00 -11,432 -36.15 31,628
Montmorency 1,717 29.58 4,029 69.41 32 0.55 14 0.24 13 0.22 0 0.00 -2,312 -39.83 5,805
Muskegon 44,192 48.53 44,637 49.02 1,157 1.27 810 0.89 257 0.28 0 0.00 -445 -0.49 91,053
Newaygo 7,696 28.61 18,593 69.13 332 1.23 174 0.65 101 0.38 0 0.00 -10,897 -40.51 26,896
Oakland 418,312 54.78 334,629 43.82 4,694 0.61 4,746 0.62 1,212 0.16 1 0.00 83,683 10.96 763,594
Oceana 4,796 34.45 8,808 63.28 160 1.15 96 0.69 60 0.43 0 0.00 -4,012 -28.82 13,920
Ogemaw 3,788 32.24 7,758 66.04 102 0.87 56 0.48 44 0.37 0 0.00 -3,970 -33.79 11,748
Ontonagon 1,464 39.00 2,225 59.27 31 0.83 26 0.69 8 0.21 0 0.00 -761 -20.27 3,754
Osceola 3,226 26.39 8,808 72.06 102 0.83 52 0.43 35 0.29 0 0.00 -5,582 -45.67 12,223
Oscoda 1,384 28.64 3,376 69.87 40 0.83 24 0.50 8 0.17 0 0.00 -1,992 -41.23 4,832
Otsego 4,703 32.15 9,727 66.49 90 0.62 73 0.50 37 0.25 0 0.00 -5,024 -34.34 14,630
Ottawa 59,187 35.29 106,108 63.27 1,042 0.62 1,090 0.65 273 0.16 1 0.00 -46,921 -27.98 167,701
Presque Isle 3,056 36.85 5,167 62.30 37 0.45 21 0.25 13 0.16 0 0.00 -2,111 -25.45 8,294
Roscommon 5,309 35.66 9,385 63.03 89 0.60 66 0.44 40 0.27 0 0.00 -4,076 -27.38 14,889
Saginaw 51,520 50.35 49,209 48.09 860 0.84 525 0.51 210 0.21 0 0.00 2,311 2.26 102,324
Sanilac 6,244 28.11 15,544 69.98 217 0.98 135 0.61 73 0.33 0 0.00 -9,300 -41.87 22,213
Schoolcraft 1,712 36.64 2,905 62.18 27 0.58 17 0.36 11 0.24 0 0.00 -1,193 -25.54 4,672
Shiawassee 15,830 40.88 22,110 57.10 424 1.09 245 0.63 116 0.30 0 0.00 -6,280 -16.22 38,725
St. Clair 31,846 35.18 56,476 62.38 1,190 1.31 692 0.76 330 0.36 1 0.00 -24,630 -27.20 90,535
St. Joseph 8,824 31.99 18,018 65.33 390 1.41 240 0.87 109 0.40 0 0.00 -9,194 -33.34 27,581
Tuscola 9,422 32.34 19,174 65.81 296 1.02 176 0.60 69 0.24 0 0.00 -9,752 -33.47 29,137
Van Buren 15,944 41.20 21,816 56.37 477 1.23 336 0.87 126 0.33 0 0.00 -5,872 -15.17 38,699
Washtenaw 150,529 70.08 60,745 28.28 1,227 0.57 1,962 0.91 325 0.15 1 0.00 89,784 41.80 214,789
Wayne 582,367 67.50 260,146 30.15 10,804 1.25 6,879 0.80 2,623 0.30 0 0.00 322,221 37.35 862,819
Wexford 5,684 31.38 12,122 66.93 149 0.82 116 0.64 41 0.23 0 0.00 -6,438 -35.55 18,112
Totals 2,734,568 49.90 2,642,233 48.22 50,597 0.92 39,217 0.72 13,093 0.24 12 0.00 92,335 1.68 5,479,720

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

John James won eight of Michigan's 14 congressional districts, including one district that was won by a Democrat, and Gary Peters won six of Michigan's 14 congressional districts.

District James Peters Representative
1st 58.1% 40.6% Jack Bergman
2nd 57.0% 41.1% Bill Huizenga
3rd 53.1% 44.9% Justin Amash
Peter Meijer
4th 60.6% 37.8% John Moolenaar
5th 45.4% 52.8% Dan Kildee
6th 53.4% 44.5% Fred Upton
7th 56.2% 41.7% Tim Walberg
8th 50.8% 47.6% Elissa Slotkin
9th 42.2% 55.8% Andy Levin
10th 62.6% 35.5% Paul Mitchell
Lisa McClain
11th 48.7% 49.9% Haley Stevens
12th 34.4% 63.4% Debbie Dingell
13th 19.2% 77.8% Rashida Tlaib
14th 20.2% 77.9% Brenda Lawrence

Litigation

After Peters took the lead in the election on the 4th, James refused to concede the race. The following day, James claimed that he had been cheated out of winning the election in a statement published on his campaign website. The statement said that there were "[...] deep concerns that millions of Michiganders may have been disenfranchised by a dishonest few who cheat" and that "[...] there is enough credible evidence to warrant an investigation to ensure that elections were conducted in a transparent, legal and fair manner."[7] A lawyer for James' campaign alleged that fraud was committed at the TCF Center, which the Trump campaign had also attempted to claim in a dismissed lawsuit.[6][259][260] James conceded the election to Peters on November 24.[261]

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d e f g Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Sample size estimated by multiplying the total sample size with the percentage of it that identifies as Republican
  3. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. ^ "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 10%
  5. ^ "Refused" with 1%; Did not vote and would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 2%
  6. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 2%
  7. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  8. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  9. ^ Squier (G) with 0%; Undecided with 2%
  10. ^ "Not sure/Someone else/Undecided" with 2%
  11. ^ Squier (G) with 3%; "None of these" with 1%; "Other" with 0%; Undecided with 3%
  12. ^ "Other" with 3%; Undecided with 2%
  13. ^ Standard VI response
  14. ^ "Other" with 3%; Undecided with 6%
  15. ^ Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  16. ^ "Other" with 3%; Undecided with 6%
  17. ^ Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  18. ^ "Other" with 3%; Undecided with 6%
  19. ^ "Third party" with 5%; "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
  20. ^ "Other/third party" with 2%; Undecided with 9%
  21. ^ Undecided with 3%
  22. ^ Additional details sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  23. ^ Not yet released
  24. ^ Undecided with 1%
  25. ^ Squier (G) and would not vote with 1%; Dern (Natural Law), "Someone else" and Willis (Taxpayers) with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
  26. ^ "Some other candidate" with 4%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 2%
  27. ^ Undecided with 9%
  28. ^ "Other" with 1%; "None of these" with 0%; would not vote with no voters; Undecided with 1%
  29. ^ Undecided with 7%
  30. ^ Undecided with 6%
  31. ^ "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 11%
  32. ^ "Other" with 3%; would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 5%
  33. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 2%
  34. ^ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  35. ^ "Third party candidate" with 5%; "Undecided/Refused" with 11%
  36. ^ Undecided with 8%
  37. ^ "Someone else" and Undecided with 1%
  38. ^ Undecided with 9%
  39. ^ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  40. ^ "Someone else" and Undecided with 3%
  41. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 2%
  42. ^ "Third party candidate" with 5%; "Undecided/Refused" with 11%
  43. ^ Squier (G) and would not vote with 1%; Dern (Natural Law), "someone else" and Willis (Taxpayers Party) with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 13%
  44. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 8%
  45. ^ Undecided with 10%
  46. ^ "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 6%
  47. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  48. ^ Did/would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 6%
  49. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 1%; "Undecided/Refused" with 3%
  50. ^ "Do not recall" with 1%; "Did not vote" and would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 5%
  51. ^ "Refused" with 2%; "Third Party" with 1%; Undecided with 13%
  52. ^ Squier (G) with 3%; Undecided with 7%
  53. ^ "Another Party Candidate" with 2%; Undecided with 4%
  54. ^ "Another Party Candidate" with 2%; Undecided with 4%
  55. ^ "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 6%
  56. ^ Would not vote with 2%; Undecided with 3%
  57. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  58. ^ Undecided with 12%
  59. ^ "Someone else" with 8%; "Refused" and would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 10%
  60. ^ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  61. ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%; would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 6%
  62. ^ "Third party candidate" with 5%; "Undecided/Refused" with 9%
  63. ^ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 2%; Undecided with 11%
  64. ^ Squier (G) with 2%; Willis (Taxpayers Party) with 1%; Dern (Natural Law) and "someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 11%
  65. ^ Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  66. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%; Undecided with 10%
  67. ^ Undecided with 14%
  68. ^ "Other candidates" with 3%; Undecided with 4%
  69. ^ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%; Undecided with 11%
  70. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  71. ^ Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 7%
  72. ^ Squier (G) with 4%; Undecided with 10%
  73. ^ Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 5%
  74. ^ "Another party candidate" with 2%; Undecided with 3%
  75. ^ "Third party/write-in" with 1%; Undecided with 12%
  76. ^ Undecided with 8%
  77. ^ Would not vote with 2%; Undecided with 5%
  78. ^ "Undecided/refused" with 10%
  79. ^ "Third party" with 4%; Undecided with 9%
  80. ^ "None of the above/neither" with 2%; "Other" with 0%; Undecided with 6%
  81. ^ "Third party/write-in" with 2%; Undecided with 11%
  82. ^ Undecided with 11%
  83. ^ "Someone else" with 14%; "refused" and would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 12%
  84. ^ "Other" with 3%; would not vote with 2%; Undecided with 10%
  85. ^ Undecided with 9%
  86. ^ "Another candidate" with 7%; Undecided with 8%
  87. ^ Undecided with 5%; would not vote with 1%
  88. ^ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  89. ^ Undecided with 7%; "would not vote" with 2%
  90. ^ Undecided with 10%; "would not vote" with 4%
  91. ^ Undecided with 12%
  92. ^ Undecided with 24%; would not vote with 4%; "Another candidate" with 1%
  93. ^ Undecided with 15%; "Third party/write-in" with 3%
  94. ^ Undecided with 18.2%; "Someone else" with 13.7%; Would not vote with 1.5%
  95. ^ Not sure with 13%; "Other" with 4%; "prefer not to answer" with 0%
  96. ^ Undecided with 17%; "A different candidate" with 3%
  97. ^ Includes "refused"
  98. ^ "Third party" with 3%; Undecided with 10%
  99. ^ Undecided with 17%
  100. ^ "Someone else" with 2%; "Refused" and would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 13%
  101. ^ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  102. ^ The survey indicates the candidate is called 'Bob Barr', but this is assumed to be an error.
  103. ^ "It is time for someone new" with 30.3% as opposed to "Peters deserves to be re-elected"
  104. ^ "Candidate from another party" with 2%
  105. ^ "Prefer not to answer/refused" with 7%; "will not vote/not sure" with 1%
  106. ^ "Independent/Undecided" with 15%
  107. ^ "Independent/Undecided" with 16%
  108. ^ "Independent/Undecided" with 12%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ Progress Michigan is a non-profit that primarily supports Democratic candidates
  2. ^ a b c d Poll conducted for James' campaign.
  3. ^ Poll sponsored by The American Bridge PAC, which exclusively supports Democratic candidates.
  4. ^ The Restoration PAC is a 501 non-profit which supports Donald Trump's 2020 presidential campaign
  5. ^ a b The American Action Forum is a 501 organization which usually supports Republican candidates
  6. ^ a b c d e Poll conducted for Progress Michigan, a non-profit that primarily supports Democratic candidates.
  7. ^ The Restoration PAC is a 501 non-profit which supports Donald Trump's 2020 presidential campaign
  8. ^ Poll sponsored by the Human Rights Campaign which has endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period.
  9. ^ Poll sponsored by AARP.
  10. ^ The Restoration PAC is a 501 non-profit which supports Donald Trump's 2020 presidential campaign
  11. ^ This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501 that supports the Republican Party.
  12. ^ Poll sponsored by Giffords, which had endorsed Peters prior to the sampling period
  13. ^ The Restoration PAC is a 501 non-profit which supports Donald Trump's 2020 presidential campaign

References

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Further reading

Official campaign websites