2020 United States presidential election in Montana

Main article: 2020 United States presidential election

2020 United States presidential election in Montana
← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout81.33% (of registered voters)[1] Increase
 
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Electoral vote 3 0
Popular vote 343,602 244,786
Percentage 56.92% 40.55%
President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

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The 2020 United States presidential election in Montana was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] Montana voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump and running mate Vice President Mike Pence, against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Montana had three electoral votes in the Electoral College for the 2020 election.[3]

Trump won Montana 56.92% to 40.55%, a margin of 16.4%, down from the 20.4% margin he scored four years earlier. Prior to this election, most news organizations considered this a state Trump was very likely to win, or otherwise considered a likely red state. Montana has not been won by a Democrat since 1992, and has only been competitive in two elections since then, namely in 1996 and in 2008.

Despite his loss in the state, Biden was able to flip Blaine County, a bellwether that is home to Fort Belknap Indian Reservation. He also narrowed Trump's margins in 31 other counties, including the counties of Lewis and Clark (Helena, the state capital), and to a lesser extent Roosevelt, which holds most of Fort Peck Reservation. Additionally, Biden even widened Hillary Clinton's margin of victory in every other county that she won in 2016. This is the first time since their creation in 1919 and 1912, respectively, that a Democrat has won a presidential election without carrying Roosevelt or Hill county.

Primary elections

The primary elections were held on June 2, 2020.

Republican primary

Main article: 2020 Montana Republican presidential primary

Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary, and thus received all of the state's 27 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[4]

Democratic primary

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Montana Democratic presidential primary § MTresults.[edit]
2020 Montana Democratic presidential primary[5]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[6]
Joe Biden 111,706 74.48 18
Bernie Sanders (withdrawn) 22,033 14.69 1
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) 11,984 7.99
No Preference 4,250 2.83
Total 149,973 100% 19

Libertarian nominee

The 2020 Libertarian National Convention was held on May 22–24, 2020, selecting Jo Jorgensen, Psychology Senior Lecturer at Clemson University, as their presidential nominee.

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[7] Likely R September 10, 2020
Inside Elections[8] Lean R September 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] Likely R July 14, 2020
Politico[10] Likely R September 8, 2020
RCP[11] Lean R August 3, 2020
Niskanen[12] Likely R July 26, 2020
CNN[13] Safe R August 3, 2020
The Economist[14] Likely R September 2, 2020
CBS News[15] Likely R August 16, 2020
270towin[16] Likely R August 2, 2020
ABC News[17] Lean R July 31, 2020
NPR[18] Likely R August 3, 2020
NBC News[19] Likely R August 6, 2020
538[20] Likely R November 2, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary


Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
[a] 		Margin
270 to Win[21] October 22–28, 2020 November 3, 2020 44.8% 50.2% 5.0% Trump +5.4
FiveThirtyEight[22] until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 45.4% 49.8% 4.8% Trump +4.4
Average 45.1% 50.0% 4.9% Trump +4.9

Polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian 		Other Undecided
Change Research[23] Oct 29 – Nov 2, 2020 920 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 45% 2% 1%[c] 1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[24] Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 1,021 (LV) ± 4% 52%[d] 46% – – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios[24] Oct 1–28, 2020 1,471 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 48% – – –
Public Policy Polling/Protect Our Care[25][A] Oct 26–27, 2020 886 (LV) ± 3.3% 49% 47% – – 3%
Montana State University Billings[26] Oct 19–24, 2020 546 (LV) ± 4.2% 52% 45% 1% – 2%
Siena College/NYT Upshot[27] Oct 18–20, 2020 758 (LV) ± 4.4% 49% 43% 3% 2%[e] 3%[f]
Strategies 360/NBCMT[28] Oct 15–20, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 51% 43% 3% – 4%
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ[29] Oct 15–18, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 50%[g] 46% 2% 4%[h] 0%
48%[i] 48% 2% 4%[h] 0%
52%[j] 44% 2% 4%[h] 0%
Public Policy Polling[30] Oct 9–10, 2020 798 (V) ± 3.5% 52% 46% - 2%[k] 0%
Emerson College[31] Oct 4–7, 2020 500 (LV) ± 3.7% 56% 44% – – –
Data For Progress (D)[32] Sep 30 – Oct 5, 2020 737 (LV) ± 3.6% 49% 43% 3% 0%[l] 5%
Montana State University Bozeman[33] Sep 14 – Oct 2, 2020 1,607 (LV) ± 3.9% 51% 44% – 4% 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[24] Sep 1–30, 2020 480 (LV) – 57% 41% – – 2%
Siena College/NYT Upshot[34] Sep 14–16, 2020 625 (LV) ± 4.8% 49% 42% 2% 2%[m] 5%[f]
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates/AARP[35] Aug 30 – Sep 5, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 43% – 0%[n] 6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[24] Aug 1–31, 2020 562 (LV) – 52% 46% – – 1%
Expedition Strategies/House Majority PAC[36][B] Aug 22–27, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 48% 44% – – 7%[f]
Emerson College[37] Jul 31 – Aug 2, 2020 584 (LV) ± 4.0% 54%[o] 46% – – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios[24] Jul 1–31, 2020 527 (LV) – 53% 44% – – 3%
Public Policy Polling/AFSCME[38][C] Jul 23–24, 2020 917 (V) – 50% 45% – – 5%
Spry Strategies/American Principles Project[39][D] Jul 11–16, 2020 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 52% 42% – – 6%
Civiqs/Daily Kos[40] Jul 11–13, 2020 873 (RV) ± 4.2% 49% 45% - 5%[p] 1%
Public Policy Polling/Election Twitter[41] Jul 9–10, 2020 1,224 (V) ± 2.8% 51% 42% – – 7%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[24] Jun 8–30, 2020 166 (LV) – 57% 41% – – 2%
University of Montana[42] Jun 17–26, 2020 517 (RV) ± 4.3% 52% 38% – – 10%
Montana State University Bozeman[33] Apr 10–27, 2020 459 (LV) ± 4.6% 45% 40% – 11% 5%
The Progress Campaign (D) Apr 14–21, 2020 1,712 (RV) ± 4.6% 51% 42% – – 7%[q]
University of Montana[43] Feb 12–22, 2020 498 (LV) ± 4.4% 56% 34% – – 10%
University of Montana[44] Sep 26 – Oct 3, 2019 303 (RV) ± 5.6% 54% 47% – – –
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Michael
Bloomberg (D) 		Undecided
University of Montana[43] Feb 12–22, 2020 498 (LV) ± 4.4% 55% 31% 15%

Donald Trump vs. Steve Bullock

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Steve
Bullock (D)
University of Montana[44] Sep 26 – Oct 3, 2019 303 (RV) ± 5.6% 48% 52%

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Pete
Buttigieg (D) 		Undecided
University of Montana[43] Feb 12–22, 2020 498 (LV) ± 4.4% 52% 35% 13%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Kamala
Harris (D)
University of Montana[44] Sep 26 – Oct 3, 2019 303 (RV) ± 5.6% 55% 45%

Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Amy
Klobuchar (D) 		Undecided
University of Montana[43] Feb 12–22, 2020 498 (LV) ± 4.4% 53% 31% 15%

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Bernie
Sanders (D) 		Undecided
University of Montana[43] Feb 12–22, 2020 498 (LV) ± 4.4% 56% 34% 9%
University of Montana[44] Sep 26 – Oct 3, 2019 303 (RV) ± 5.6% 54% 46% –

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Elizabeth
Warren (D) 		Undecided
University of Montana[43] Feb 12–22, 2020 498 (LV) ± 4.4% 57% 33% 10%
University of Montana[44] Sep 26 – Oct 3, 2019 303 (RV) ± 5.6% 54% 46% –
Zogby Analytics[45] Aug 17–23, 2017 403 (LV) ± 4.9% 45% 39% 17%
Hypothetical polling

Donald Trump vs. Generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Generic
Democrat (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[46] Mar 12–13, 2020 903 (V) ± 3.3% 52% 44% 4%

with Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, John Kasich, Beto O'Rourke, Bernie Sanders, Howard Schultz and Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden (D) 		Bernie
Sanders (D) 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Other
University of Montana[47] Feb 21 – Mar 1, 2019 293 (RV) ± 5.72% 14.7% 8.4% 40% 36.8%[r]

Electoral slates

These slates of electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidate win the state:[48]

Donald Trump and Mike Pence
Republican Party 		Joe Biden and Kamala Harris
Democratic Party 		Jo Jorgensen and Spike Cohen
Libertarian Party
Thelma Baker
Becky Stockton
Brad Tschida 		Jean Lemire Dahlman
Katie Sullivan
Cora Neumann 		Francis Wendt
Jacob Kitson
Cher Kitson

Results

2020 United States presidential election in Montana[49]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence 		343,602 56.92 +0.75
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris 		244,786 40.55 +4.80
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen 		15,252 2.53 −3.11
Total votes 603,640 100.00 N/A
Republican win

By county

County Donald Trump
Republican 		Joe Biden
Democratic 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Beaverhead 3,923 69.30% 1,608 28.40% 130 2.30% 2,315 40.90% 5,661
Big Horn 2,207 46.10% 2,491 52.04% 89 1.86% -284 -5.94% 4,787
Blaine 1,469 47.11% 1,589 50.96% 60 1.93% -120 -3.85% 3,118
Broadwater 3,173 77.45% 835 20.38% 89 2.17% 2,338 57.07% 4,097
Carbon 4,468 63.35% 2,421 34.33% 164 2.32% 2,047 29.02% 7,053
Carter 775 89.70% 74 8.56% 15 1.74% 701 81.14% 864
Cascade 23,315 58.46% 15,456 38.75% 1,114 2.79% 7,859 19.71% 39,885
Chouteau 1,891 63.78% 991 33.42% 83 2.80% 900 30.36% 2,965
Custer 4,205 71.76% 1,514 25.84% 141 2.40% 2,691 45.92% 5,860
Daniels 799 78.80% 195 19.23% 20 1.97% 604 59.57% 1,014
Dawson 3,758 77.89% 962 19.94% 105 2.17% 2,796 57.95% 4,825
Deer Lodge 2,186 44.69% 2,562 52.38% 143 2.93% -376 -7.69% 4,891
Fallon 1,375 87.30% 172 10.92% 28 1.78% 1,203 76.38% 1,575
Fergus 4,869 74.83% 1,496 22.99% 142 2.18% 3,373 51.84% 6,507
Flathead 38,321 63.93% 20,274 33.82% 1,343 2.25% 18,047 30.11% 59,938
Gallatin 31,696 44.33% 37,044 51.80% 2,767 3.87% -5,348 -7.47% 71,507
Garfield 764 93.97% 41 5.04% 8 0.99% 723 88.93% 813
Glacier 1,884 33.54% 3,610 64.27% 123 2.19% -1,726 -30.73% 5,617
Golden Valley 414 82.31% 78 15.51% 11 2.18% 336 66.80% 503
Granite 1,419 67.51% 638 30.35% 45 2.14% 781 37.16% 2,102
Hill 3,957 55.10% 2,981 41.51% 244 3.39% 976 13.59% 7,182
Jefferson 5,345 65.57% 2,625 32.20% 181 2.23% 2,720 33.37% 8,151
Judith Basin 1,040 77.38% 275 20.46% 29 2.16% 765 56.92% 1,344
Lake 9,322 56.07% 6,916 41.60% 388 2.33% 2,406 14.47% 16,626
Lewis and Clark 21,409 50.64% 19,743 46.70% 1,121 2.66% 1,666 3.94% 42,273
Liberty 821 75.81% 249 22.99% 13 1.20% 572 52.82% 1,083
Lincoln 8,672 73.81% 2,835 24.13% 242 2.06% 5,837 49.68% 11,749
Madison 4,191 68.85% 1,771 29.09% 125 2.06% 2,420 39.76% 6,087
McCone 956 84.75% 155 13.74% 17 1.51% 801 71.01% 1,128
Meagher 833 75.05% 258 23.24% 19 1.71% 575 51.81% 1,110
Mineral 1,828 71.32% 686 26.77% 49 1.91% 1,142 44.55% 2,563
Missoula 26,347 36.57% 43,357 60.18% 2,342 3.25% -17,010 -23.61% 72,046
Musselshell 2,423 84.10% 413 14.34% 45 1.56% 2,010 69.76% 2,881
Park 6,025 51.79% 5,280 45.39% 328 2.82% 745 6.40% 11,633
Petroleum 298 85.63% 39 11.21% 11 3.16% 259 74.42% 348
Phillips 1,936 81.28% 416 17.46% 30 1.26% 1,520 63.82% 2,382
Pondera 2,031 67.81% 903 30.15% 61 2.04% 1,128 37.66% 2,995
Powder River 970 85.39% 154 13.56% 12 1.05% 816 71.83% 1,136
Powell 2,355 74.08% 752 23.66% 72 2.26% 1,603 50.42% 3,179
Prairie 603 81.05% 126 16.94% 15 2.01% 477 64.11% 744
Ravalli 19,114 66.78% 8,763 30.62% 745 2.60% 10,351 36.16% 28,622
Richland 4,800 82.79% 875 15.09% 123 2.12% 3,925 67.70% 5,798
Roosevelt 1,996 49.69% 1,910 47.55% 111 2.76% 86 2.14% 4,017
Rosebud 2,486 65.70% 1,199 31.69% 99 2.61% 1,287 34.01% 3,784
Sanders 5,660 74.25% 1,820 23.88% 143 1.87% 3,840 50.37% 7,623
Sheridan 1,403 69.11% 574 28.28% 53 2.61% 829 40.83% 2,030
Silver Bow 7,745 41.21% 10,392 55.29% 659 3.50% -2,647 -14.08% 18,796
Stillwater 4,462 77.72% 1,156 20.14% 123 2.14% 3,306 57.58% 5,741
Sweet Grass 1,840 75.22% 549 22.44% 57 2.34% 1,291 52.78% 2,446
Teton 2,608 70.89% 1,007 27.37% 64 1.74% 1,601 43.52% 3,679
Toole 1,596 75.32% 467 22.04% 56 2.64% 1,129 53.28% 2,119
Treasure 373 81.09% 78 16.96% 9 1.95% 295 64.13% 460
Valley 3,135 73.57% 1,030 24.17% 96 2.26% 2,105 49.40% 4,261
Wheatland 823 77.06% 225 21.07% 20 1.87% 598 55.99% 1,068
Wibaux 516 86.29% 77 12.88% 5 0.83% 439 73.41% 598
Yellowstone 50,772 60.22% 30,679 36.39% 2,855 3.39% 20,093 23.83% 84,306
Totals 343,602 56.74% 244,786 40.42% 17,182 2.84% 98,816 16.32% 605,570

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Montana has one at-large district that is the same as the statewide results.

Analysis

Montana, a sparsely-populated state straddling the Mountain and Plains West, has been a red state on the presidential level from 1968 on, voting solidly Republican in the close elections of 1968, 2000, 2004, 2012, and 2016. Since 1964, it has voted Democratic only in 1992, and, aside from that, has been competitive only in 1976, 1988,[51] 1996, and 2008. Montana typically votes substantially to the left of its neighbors in the Mountain West (Idaho and Wyoming) and, more recently, of its neighbors in the Plains West as well (North and South Dakota). Nevertheless, Trump was able to carry the state comfortably on Election Day, although his margin was reduced with respect to 2016.

Trump's principal bases of support were in Glacier Country, southwest Montana, central Montana, and southeast Montana, where he carried the population centers of Flathead County (Kalispell), Ravalli County, Cascade County (Great Falls), and Yellowstone County (Billings), in every case with a higher vote share than he received statewide. He also performed strongly in moderate-size, more rural counties in every region of the state, such as Lincoln and Sanders in Glacier Country, Beaverhead, Madison, and Jefferson in the southwest, Stillwater and Carbon in south central Montana, Fergus in central Montana, Custer in the southeast, and Richland, Dawson, and Valley in the Missouri River Country.

However, Biden was able to keep the margin smaller than in neighboring states by breaking 60% in Missoula County, the state's third-largest county and home to the University of Montana, and winning a majority in Gallatin County, the state's second-largest county and home to Montana State University. Gallatin had been a typically Republican county as recently as 2012, when it voted for Romney. He also held Trump to a 4% margin in Lewis and Clark County, the state's sixth-largest county and home to the state capital, Helena; George W. Bush had won this county twice by double digits. Biden also held onto the traditionally Democratic strongholds of heavily unionized Silver Bow and Deer Lodge Counties, although he still fell short of the typical Democratic vote share in those counties; Trump became the first Republican to crack 40% in Silver Bow since 1956, and got the highest vote share of any Republican in Deer Lodge since 1956. In addition, Biden once again carried majority-Native American Glacier County; and furthered his margins in the city of Whitefish, located in heavily-Republican Flathead County.[52]

Biden flipped the swing county of Blaine; Trump flipped no counties.

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, 49% of voters favored allowing more drilling and mining for natural resources on Montana's public lands; an overwhelming 87% of them backed Trump.[53]

In addition to Trump's victory in Montana, Republican candidates, riding on his coattails, won three other major statewide races, which were expected to be competitive. Incumbent Senator Steve Daines defeated term-limited Governor Steve Bullock in the Montana Senate race,[54] Republican State Auditor Matt Rosendale defeated former state representative Kathleen Williams in the Montana House race,[54] and Republican Representative Greg Gianforte defeated Lt. Gov. Mike Cooney in the governor's race.[54] This marked the first time since 2000 that Montana Republicans have held a trifecta.[55] Montana Republicans also won all five state executive branch seats including the State Auditor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, and Superintendent of Public Instruction.[56]

Edison exit polls

2020 presidential election in Montana by demographic subgroup (Edison exit polling)[57][58]
Demographic subgroup Biden Trump % of

total vote

Total vote 40.55 56.92 100
Ideology
Liberals 88 8 17
Moderates 64 34 36
Conservatives 7 91 47
Party
Democrats 96 3 22
Republicans 6 92 37
Independents 40 55 41
Gender
Men 33 63 50
Women 47 52 50
Race/ethnicity
White 39 58 88
Non-white 45 50 12
Age
18–24 years old 36 57 10
25–29 years old 25 64 9
30–39 years old 48 50 15
40–49 years old 28 69 15
50–64 years old 46 54 25
65 and older 44 55 25
Sexual orientation
LGBT – – 8
Not LGBT 38 60 92
Education
High school or less 32 65 26
Some college education 38 58 34
Associate degree 31 66 10
Bachelor's degree 45 54 18
Postgraduate degree 60 39 12
Region
Northern Rockies 37 61 17
Central Rockies 54 41 21
Southern Rockies 44 54 24
Northern Plains 37 60 18
Southern Plains 25 73 20
Area type
Urban 47 50 24
Suburban – – 5
Rural 38 59 70
Family's financial situation today
Better than four years ago 16 89 44
Worse than four years ago – – 16
About the same 61 37 39

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ "Don't recall" with 1%
  4. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  5. ^ "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  6. ^ a b c Includes "Refused"
  7. ^ Standard VI response
  8. ^ a b c "Someone else" with 4%
  9. ^ Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  10. ^ Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  11. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  12. ^ Hawkins (G) with 0%
  13. ^ Hawkins (G) and would not vote with 1%; "someone else" with 0%
  14. ^ "Refused" with 0%
  15. ^ Including voters who lean towards a given candidate
  16. ^ "Someone else" with 5%
  17. ^ Listed as "other/not sure"
  18. ^ "Someone else" with 11.6%; Warren with 5%; "none/do not plan to vote" with 4%; Kasich with 4.4%; Harris with 3.8%; O'Rourke with 3.4%; Booker with 2.4%; Gillibrand with 1% Schultz with 1.2%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ Protect Our Care is a pro-Affordable Care Act organization
  2. ^ The House Majority PAC exclusively supports Democratic candidates
  3. ^ AFSCME endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  4. ^ This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501(c)(4) organization that supports the Republican Party.

References

  1. ^ "Montana Voter Turnout". Montana SoS. Retrieved February 7, 2024.
  2. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  4. ^ "Montana Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
  5. ^ "2020 Statewide Primary Election Canvass" (PDF). Montana Secretary of State. Retrieved October 14, 2020.
  6. ^ "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
  7. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  8. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  9. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  10. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  11. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  12. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
  13. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  14. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  15. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  16. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  17. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  18. ^ Montanaro, Domenico (August 3, 2020). "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  19. ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  20. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  21. ^ "Montana 2020 Presidential Election Polls: Biden vs. Trump - 270toWin". 270toWin.com.
  22. ^ Best, Ryan; Bycoffe, Aaron; King, Ritchie; Mehta, Dhrumil; Wiederkehr, Anna (June 28, 2018). "Montana : President: general election Polls". FiveThirtyEight.
  23. ^ "Final Public Polling — Election 2020". Change Research. November 3, 2020.
  24. ^ a b c d e f "Candidate preference". www.tableau.com.
  25. ^ "Public Policy Polling/Protect Our Care" (PDF).
  26. ^ "Montana State University Billings" (PDF).
  27. ^ "Siena College/NYT Upshot" (PDF).
  28. ^ Georgiou, Maritsa (October 22, 2020). "NBC Montana/Strategies 360 poll shows extremely tight Montana races". KECI.
  29. ^ "RMG Research/PoliticalIQ". Archived from the original on October 25, 2020. Retrieved October 24, 2020.
  30. ^ "Montana Senate Tight As Can Be". Public Policy Polling. October 12, 2020.
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