2020 United States presidential election in Massachusetts

Main article: 2020 United States presidential election

2020 United States presidential election in Massachusetts
← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout76%[1] Increase
 
Nominee Joe Biden Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Delaware Florida
Running mate Kamala Harris Mike Pence
Electoral vote 11 0
Popular vote 2,382,202 1,167,202
Percentage 65.60% 32.14%
President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elections in
Massachusetts
General
Federal government
U.S. President
U.S. Senate
U.S. House
State government
Governor
State Senate
State House
Governor's Council
Ballot measures
Boston
Mayor
City council
Springfield
Mayor
Worcester
Mayor
flag Massachusetts portal

The 2020 United States presidential election in Massachusetts was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[3] Massachusetts voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Massachusetts has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[4]

Prior to the election, Massachusetts was widely considered a state Biden would win or a safe blue state. On election day, Biden easily carried Massachusetts with a 33-point margin, the largest margin whereby any nominee had carried the state since Lyndon B. Johnson's 1964 landslide. Massachusetts was one of three states where Biden won every county, the other two being Rhode Island and Hawaii.

Massachusetts voted 29% more Democratic than the national average.

Primary elections

Presidential preference primaries were scheduled for March 3, 2020, for each of the political parties with state ballot access.

Democratic primary

Main article: 2020 Massachusetts Democratic presidential primary

Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden were among the declared major Democratic candidates. Elizabeth Warren, one of the two current senators from Massachusetts, formed an exploratory committee in December 2018 and declared her intention to run in February 2019.[5][6]

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Massachusetts Democratic presidential primary § MAresults.[edit]
2020 Massachusetts Democratic presidential primary[7]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[8]
Joe Biden 473,861 33.41 37
Bernie Sanders 376,990 26.58 30
Elizabeth Warren 303,864 21.43 24
Michael Bloomberg 166,200 11.72
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)[a] 38,400 2.71
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)[a] 17,297 1.22
Tulsi Gabbard 10,548 0.74
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) 6,923 0.49
Tom Steyer (withdrawn)[a] 6,762 0.48
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 2,708 0.19
Michael Bennet (withdrawn) 1,257 0.09
John Delaney (withdrawn) 675 0.05
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) 617 0.04
Cory Booker (withdrawn) 426 0.03
Julian Castro (withdrawn) 305 0.02
All Others 1,941 0.14
No Preference 5,345 0.38
Blank ballots 4,061 0.29
Total 1,418,180 100% 91

Republican primary

Main article: 2020 Massachusetts Republican presidential primary

Massachusetts governor Charlie Baker declined to run, as did Utah Senator and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney.[9][10][11][12]

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Massachusetts Republican presidential primary § MAresults.[edit]
2020 Massachusetts Republican presidential primary[13]
Candidate Popular vote Delegates
Count Percentage
Donald Trump (incumbent) 239,115 86.32 41
Bill Weld 25,425 9.18 0
Joe Walsh (withdrawn) 3,008 1.09 0
Rocky De La Fuente 675 0.24 0
No Preference 4,385 1.58 0
Blank ballots 2,242 0.81 0
All Others 2,152 0.78 0
Total 277,002 100% 41

Libertarian primary

Main article: 2020 Libertarian Party presidential primaries
2020 Massachusetts Libertarian presidential primary
March 3, 2020 2024 →
← CA
NC →
 
Candidate Write-in
(uncounted) 		No preference Vermin Supreme
Home state Various N/A Massachusetts
Popular vote 958 804 398
Percentage 25.0% 21.0% 10.4%
 
Candidate Jacob Hornberger Dan Behrman Kim Ruff
(withdrawn)
Home state Virginia Nevada Arizona
Popular vote 369 294 224
Percentage 9.6% 7.7% 5.8%
Election results by county[b]
  No preference
  Jacob Hornberger

A number of Libertarian candidates declared for the race, including New Hampshire State Representative Max Abramson, Adam Kokesh, Vermin Supreme and former Libertarian National Committee vice-chair Arvin Vohra.[14][15][16]

Massachusetts Libertarian presidential primary, March 3, 2020[17]
Candidate Votes Percentage
All others 958 25.0%
No preference 804 21.0%
Vermin Supreme 399 10.4%
Jacob Hornberger 369 9.6%
Dan Behrman 294 7.7%
Kim Ruff (withdrawn) 224 5.8%
Arvin Vohra 151 3.9%
Ken Armstrong 145 3.8%
Jo Jorgensen 141 3.7%
Sam Robb 127 3.3%
Adam Kokesh 125 3.3%
Max Abramson 98 2.6%
Total 3,835 100%

Green primary

Main article: 2020 Green Party presidential primaries
Massachusetts Green Party presidential primary, March 3, 2020 [18]
Candidate Votes Percentage National delegates
Dario Hunter 224 16.9 2
Howie Hawkins 217 16.4 1
Sedinam Kinamo Christin Moyowasifza-Curry 141 10.6 1
Kent Mesplay 55 4.1 0
David Rolde 4 0.3 0
Write-In 369 27.8 0
No Preference 316 23.8 7
Total 1326 100.00% 11

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[19] Safe D September 10, 2020
Inside Elections[20] Safe D September 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[21] Safe D July 14, 2020
Politico[22] Safe D September 8, 2020
RCP[23] Safe D August 3, 2020
Niskanen[24] Safe D July 26, 2020
CNN[25] Safe D August 3, 2020
The Economist[26] Safe D September 2, 2020
270towin[27] Safe D August 2, 2020
ABC News[28] Safe D July 31, 2020
NBC News[29] Safe D August 6, 2020
538[30] Safe D September 9, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
[c] 		Margin
270 to Win[31] October 17 – November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 65.0% 28.7% 6.3% Biden +36.3
RealClearPolitics[32] July 31 – August 27, 2020 September 15, 2020 64.0% 28.3% 7.7% Biden +35.7
FiveThirtyEight[33] until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 64.6% 28.9% 6.5% Biden +35.8
Average 64.5% 28.6% 6.8% Biden +35.9

Polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[d] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian 		Howie
Hawkins
Green 		Other Undecided
MassInc[34] Oct 23–30, 2020 929 (LV) – 28% 62% - - 8%[e] 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[35] Oct 1–28, 2020 5,848 (LV) – 28% 70% - - – –
YouGov/UMass Amherst[36] Oct 14–21, 2020 713 (LV) – 29% 64% - - 3%[f] 3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[35] Sep 1–30, 2020 2,655 (LV) – 32% 66% - - – 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[35] Aug 1–31, 2020 2,286 (LV) – 29% 69% - - – 2%
Emerson College/WHDH[37] Aug 25–27, 2020 763 (LV) ± 3.5% 31% 69% - - – –
MassINC/WBUR[38] Aug 6–9, 2020 501 (LV) ± 4.4% 27% 63% - - 5%[g] 4%
UMass/YouGov[39] Jul 31 – Aug 7, 2020 500 (RV) ± 5.9% 28% 61% - - – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios[35] Jul 1–31, 2020 2,509 (LV) – 26% 72% - - – 2%
MassINC[40] Jul 17–20, 2020 797 (RV) – 23% 55% - - 10%[h] 12%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[35] Jun 8–30, 2020 1,091 (LV) – 27% 71% - - – 2%
Emerson College/7 News[41] May 4–5, 2020 740 (RV) ± 3.5% 33%[i] 67% - - – –
University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov[42] Apr 27 – May 1, 2020 1,000 (RV) ± 3.6% 30% 58% - - 7%[j] 4%
Emerson College[43] Apr 4–7, 2019 761 (RV) ± 3.5% 31% 69% - - – –
Former candidates

with Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[d] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Bernie
Sanders (D) 		Undecided
Emerson College[43] Apr 4–7, 2019 761 (RV) ± 3.5% 36% 64% –

with Donald Trump and Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[d] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Elizabeth
Warren (D) 		Undecided
Emerson College[43] Apr 4–7, 2019 761 (RV) ± 3.5% 37% 63% –

Results

2020 United States presidential election in Massachusetts[44]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris 		2,382,202 65.60 +4.62
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence 		1,167,202 32.14 –0.67
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen 		47,013 1.29 –2.93
Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker 		18,658 0.51 –0.95
Write-in 16,327 0.45 –1.07
Total votes 3,631,402 100% +1.49
Democratic win
Treemap of the 2020 United States presidential election in Massachusetts.
Biden:
     50-60%      60-70%
     70-80%      80-90%

By county

County Joe Biden
Democratic 		Donald Trump
Republican 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Barnstable 91,994 61.20% 55,311 36.79% 3,020 2.01% 36,683 24.41% 150,325
Berkshire 51,705 72.44% 18,064 25.31% 1,606 2.25% 33,641 47.13% 71,375
Bristol 153,377 54.92% 119,872 42.92% 6,030 2.16% 33,505 12.00% 279,279
Dukes 9,914 77.47% 2,631 20.56% 253 1.97% 7,283 56.91% 12,798
Essex 267,198 63.44% 144,837 34.39% 9,175 2.17% 122,361 29.05% 421,210
Franklin 30,030 70.73% 11,201 26.38% 1,227 2.89% 18,829 44.35% 42,458
Hampden 125,948 57.73% 87,318 40.02% 4,911 2.25% 38,630 17.71% 218,177
Hampshire 63,362 72.12% 22,281 25.36% 2,211 2.52% 41,081 46.76% 87,854
Middlesex 617,196 71.47% 226,956 26.28% 19,425 2.25% 390,240 45.19% 863,577
Nantucket 5,241 71.74% 1,914 26.20% 151 2.06% 3,327 45.54% 7,306
Norfolk 273,312 67.03% 125,294 30.73% 9,145 2.24% 148,018 36.30% 407,751
Plymouth 173,630 57.53% 121,227 40.17% 6,959 2.30% 52,403 17.36% 301,816
Suffolk 270,522 80.64% 58,613 17.47% 6,327 1.89% 211,909 63.17% 335,462
Worcester 248,773 57.58% 171,683 39.74% 11,558 2.68% 77,090 17.84% 432,014
Totals 2,382,202 65.60% 1,167,202 32.14% 81,998 2.26% 1,215,000 33.46% 3,631,402

By congressional district

Biden won all nine congressional districts, breaking 60% of the vote in eight of them.

District Trump Biden Representative
1st 36.9% 61.1% Richard Neal
2nd 36% 61.8% Jim McGovern
3rd 34.6% 63.4% Lori Trahan
4th 33.7% 64.5% Joe Kennedy III
Jake Auchincloss
5th 23.9% 74.5% Katherine Clark
6th 35.6% 62.6% Seth Moulton
7th 13.3% 85.3% Ayanna Pressley
8th 32.2% 66.2% Stephen Lynch
9th 40.3% 57.9% Bill Keating

Analysis

Massachusetts has been a Democratic-leaning state since 1928, and a Democratic stronghold since 1960, and has maintained extremely large Democratic margins since 1996. This remained true in 2020, with Massachusetts being one of six states (along with Hawaii, Vermont, Maryland, California, and New York) to give Biden over 60% of the vote. Massachusetts is ethnically diverse, highly urbanized, highly educated, and among the least religious states.

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden's strength came from winning 74% of college-educated voters, which carries particular weight in Massachusetts, as the state contains the highest proportion of graduates of any state in the country.[45] Trump's slip among suburban white voters led Biden to carry almost every municipality in the Greater Boston area by at least 60% or more, while Trump carried only several towns on the South Shore and in Central Massachusetts. Biden won 298 of the 351 municipalities.[46] Biden swept all demographic groups, garnering 63% of whites, 84% of Latinos, 58% of Catholics, 56% of Protestants, and 86% of Jewish voters. Additionally, Biden won 52% of whites without a college degree within the state, one of Trump's strongest demographics elsewhere in the country.[45] While Biden overwhelmingly carried Latino voters in the state, Trump improved on his 2016 performance in heavily Hispanic cities such as Lawrence, Chelsea, and Holyoke.[47] Trump had the worst vote share in Massachusetts of any Republican nominee since Bob Dole in 1996, and slightly underperformed George W. Bush's 32.5% vote share in 2000.

Massachusetts was one of five states in the nation in which Biden's victory margin was larger than 1 million raw votes, the others being California, Maryland, New York and Illinois.

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b c Candidate withdrew after early voting started, but before the date of the election.
  2. ^ Excluding write-ins, which were not tallied.
  3. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. ^ a b c Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  5. ^ "Some other candidate" with 5%; "Refused" with 3%; would not vote with no voters
  6. ^ "Other" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
  7. ^ "Another candidate" with 2%; "Refused" with 3%
  8. ^ "Some other candidate" with 7%; would not vote with 3%
  9. ^ Including voters who lean towards a given candidate
  10. ^ "Another candidate" with 7%

References

  1. ^ "MA SOC Voter Turnout Statistics".
  2. ^ "Massachusetts Election Results 2020". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
  3. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  4. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  5. ^ Taylor, Kate (February 9, 2019). "Elizabeth Warren Formally Announces 2020 Presidential Bid in Lawrence, Mass". The New York Times. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  6. ^ Herndon, Astead W.; Burns, Alexander (December 31, 2018). "Elizabeth Warren Announces Iowa Trip as She Starts Running for President in 2020". The New York Times.
  7. ^ "2020 President Democratic Primary". Mass.gov. Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Archived from the original on April 9, 2020. Retrieved April 9, 2020.
  8. ^ "2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Massachusetts Democrat". Retrieved July 4, 2020.
  9. ^ Markos, Mary (November 8, 2018). "Charlie Baker 'absolutely' staying put". Boston Herald. Retrieved November 9, 2018.
  10. ^ Burr, Thomas (February 16, 2018). "Mitt Romney: On school shootings, immigration and when he'll challenge Trump. A Q&A with Utah's new Senate candidate". The Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved February 18, 2018.
  11. ^ Heilbrunn, Jacob (January 2, 2018). "Donald Trump's Biggest Fear: A Romney 2020 Primary Challenge". The National Interest. Retrieved January 2, 2018.
  12. ^ Keller, Jon (January 2, 2018). "Keller @ Large: Could Romney Be Trump's Worst Nightmare?". WBZ-TV. Retrieved January 2, 2018.
  13. ^ "2020 President Republican Primary". Mass.gov. Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Archived from the original on April 9, 2020. Retrieved April 9, 2020.
  14. ^ Sullivan, Max (July 28, 2019). "Seabrook's Abramson seeks Libertarian presidential nomination". The Portsmouth Herald. Archived from the original on December 29, 2020. Retrieved December 22, 2019.
  15. ^ Limitone, Julia (June 18, 2019). "Presidential candidate vows to abolish federal government on day 1, then resign". Fox Business. Retrieved December 22, 2019.
  16. ^ Clark, Bob (November 12, 2019). "Libertarians Offer Voters Nothing New". Olean Times Herald. Retrieved December 22, 2019.
  17. ^ "Massachusetts Election Statistics: 2020 Libertarian Primary". Massachusetts Secretary of State. March 3, 2020.
  18. ^ https://electionstats.state.ma.us/elections/view/135904/[permanent dead link‍]
  19. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  20. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  21. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  22. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  23. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  24. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
  25. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  26. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  27. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  28. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  29. ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  30. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  31. ^ 270 to Win
  32. ^ RealClearPolitics
  33. ^ FiveThirtyEight
  34. ^ MassInc
  35. ^ a b c d e SurveyMonkey/Axios
  36. ^ YouGov/UMass Amherst
  37. ^ Emerson College/WHDH
  38. ^ MassINC/WBUR
  39. ^ UMass/YouGov
  40. ^ MassINC
  41. ^ Emerson College/7 News
  42. ^ University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov
  43. ^ a b c Emerson College Archived April 20, 2019, at the Wayback Machine
  44. ^ "2020 President General Election". Massachusetts Secretary of State. Retrieved November 24, 2020.
  45. ^ a b "Massachusetts Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  46. ^ "Map: See How Your Town Or City Voted In The 2020 Election". www.wbur.org. November 3, 2020. Retrieved November 15, 2020.
  47. ^ "One place Trump gained in Mass.: Heavily Latino cities". November 6, 2020.

Further reading