2010 Michigan gubernatorial election

2010 Michigan gubernatorial election
← 2006 November 2, 2010 2014 →
Turnout42.9% Decrease 7.8 [1]
 
Nominee Rick Snyder Virg Bernero
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Brian Calley Brenda Lawrence
Popular vote 1,874,834 1,287,320
Percentage 58.11% 39.90%
Snyder:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Bernero:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%     70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      
Governor before election

Jennifer Granholm
Democratic

Elected Governor

Rick Snyder
Republican

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The 2010 Michigan gubernatorial election was held on November 2, 2010. Incumbent Democratic governor Jennifer Granholm and lieutenant governor John D. Cherry were prohibited by the state's Constitution from seeking a third term. This resulted in a large pool of candidates which was whittled down, when the May 11 filing deadline passed, to two Democrats and five Republicans.[2] Both the Cook Political Report and the non-partisan Rothenberg Political Report rated the election as leaning Republican.[3][4]

The Republican primary race was highly competitive; both local and national polling reported Congressman Pete Hoekstra, state Attorney General Mike Cox, and businessman Rick Snyder as being front-runners for the Republican Party nomination.[5][6][7][8] The Democratic front-runner when the 2009 polls were conducted, Lieutenant Governor John D. Cherry, withdrew from the race in January 2010.[9][10] The final polls just days before the primary election showed that, while Lansing mayor Virg Bernero was in the lead, over a quarter of those polled were still undecided.[11] The deadline for candidates to file nominating petitions for the August 3 state primary was 4:00 PM on May 11, 2010.[2][12]

A total of 1,575,167 registered voters voted in the primaries, with 66.4% of them voting in the Republican primary.[13] Analysts believe a large portion of Democrats crossed party lines to vote for Snyder, whose ad campaign targeted bipartisan and independent support.[14] In Michigan, voters may vote in either primary regardless of their political affiliation, but can only vote for one party. Ballots with split tickets are not counted in partisan races. Both races came in more disparate than predicted. Snyder won with a near 10-point lead over closest rival Pete Hoekstra, and Bernero won with an even larger 17-point lead over early favorite state house speaker Andy Dillon. Both nominees portrayed themselves as political outsiders.[15] On August 25, Snyder appointed State Representative Brian Calley as his running mate.[16] On August 28, Bernero appointed Southfield Mayor Brenda Lawrence as his running mate.[17]

Snyder won a decisive victory over Bernero in the general election, winning by nearly 20 percentage points. As of 2022, this was the last time the counties of Ingham, Marquette, Eaton, Saginaw, Bay, and Muskegon voted for the Republican candidate.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Polling

Poll source Dates administered John D. Cherry Andy Dillon George Perles John Freeman Alma Wheeler Smith Dan Kildee Virg Bernero
EPIC-MRA[25] July 28, 2010 -- 32% -- -- -- -- 40%
EPIC-MRA[26] June 12–15, 2010 -- 34% -- -- -- -- 24%
Public Policy Polling[27] May 25–27, 2010 -- 23% -- -- -- -- 26%
EPIC-MRA[28] May 22–26, 2010 -- 29% -- -- -- -- 23%
Rasmussen Reports[29] April 22, 2010 -- 13% -- -- 9% -- 12%
Rasmussen Reports[29] March 24, 2010 -- 12% -- -- 10% -- 8%
Denno-Noor Research[30] March 3–5, 2010 -- 13% -- -- 6% 6% 11%
EPIC-MRA[31] February 22–25, 2010 -- 17% -- -- 7% 12% 8%
Detroit Free Press[32] November 12–17, 2009 20% 6% 6% 2% 2% -- --
EPIC-MRA[33] October 11–15, 2009 33% -- 3% 2% 5% -- --
Marketing Resource Group[34] September 12–20, 2009 40% -- -- 9% 8% -- --

Results

Results by county
Bernero
  •   Bernero—70–80%
  •   Bernero—60–70%
  •   Bernero—50–60%
Dillon
  •   Dillon—50–60%
Primary election results[35]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Virg Bernero 309,235 58.6%
Democratic Andy Dillon 218,884 41.4%
Total votes 528,119 100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Polling

Poll source Dates administered Mike Cox Pete Hoekstra Mike Bouchard Rick Snyder Tom George David Kniffen
EPIC-MRA[46] July 29, 2010 24% 23% 10% 26% 1% --
Detroit News 4/WDIV[47] July 18, 2010 26.4% 25.6% 11.6% 20.2% 1.8% --
EPIC-MRA[26] June 12–15, 2010 26% 24% 16% 20% 2% --
Public Policy Polling[27] May 25–27, 2010 17% 19% 15% 20% 9% --
EPIC-MRA[28] May 22–26, 2010 18% 30% 16% 17% 2% --
Rasmussen Reports[48] April 22, 2010 13% 28% 9% 14% -- --
Rasmussen Reports[48] March 30, 2010 13% 27% 6% 18% -- --
Marketing Research Group[49] March 10–15, 2010 21% 21% 10% 20% 1% -
Denno-Noor Research[30] March 3–5, 2010 12% 28% 8% 18% 2% --
EPIC-MRA[31] February 22–25, 2010 21% 27% 10% 12% 1% --
Mitchell Research & Communications[50] November 17–19, 2009 27% 24% 12% 3% 3% --
Detroit Free Press[32] November 12–17, 2009 15% 21% 13% 5% 3% --
EPIC-MRA[33] October 11–15, 2009 28% 29% -- 14% 3% 2%
Marketing Resource Group[34] September 12–20, 2009 27% 23% 15% -- -- --
Marketing Resource Group[51] March 4–10, 2009 15% 17% -- -- -- --

Results

Results by county
Snyder
  •   Snyder—40–50%
  •   Snyder—<40%
Hoekstra
  •   Hoekstra—<40%
  •   Hoekstra—40–50%
  •   Hoekstra—50–60%
Cox
  •   Cox—<40%
  •   Cox—40–50%
Republican primary results[35]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Rick Snyder 381,327 36.4%
Republican Pete Hoekstra 280,976 26.8%
Republican Mike Cox 240,409 23.0%
Republican Mike Bouchard 127,350 12.2%
Republican Tom George 16,986 1.6%
Total votes 1,044,925 100.0%

Other parties

Based on past election performance, the Libertarian Party of Michigan, Green Party of Michigan, and the U.S. Taxpayers Party of Michigan (affiliated with the Constitution Party) have automatic ballot access for the general election, but by state law they must nominate candidates through party conventions rather than primary elections. The Natural Law Party also has automatic ballot access in Michigan, but chose not to run a candidate for governor in 2010.

Libertarian Party candidates

The Libertarian Party of Michigan nominee was Kenneth Proctor.[52] The nomination was won at the Michigan Libertarian Convention held in Okemos, Michigan on Saturday, May 22, in accordance with Michigan state law. He beat out Bhagwan Dashairya, who had been the 2006 U.S. Taxpayers Party nominee for governor. The delegates ended up selecting Dashairya as the Libertarian nominee for U.S. Congress in District 8.

Proctor's running mate was Dr. Erwin Haas, Maryland of Grand Rapids. Haas received the Lt. Governor nomination unanimously.

Green Party candidates

The Green Party of Michigan held their statewide nominating convention July 31 and August 1 in Lansing, and nominated Harley Mikkelson for governor and Lynn Meadows for lieutenant governor.[53]

U.S. Taxpayers Party candidates

The 2010 U.S. Taxpayers Party of Michigan convention was held on June 26 in East Lansing. In a nearly unanimous vote, Stacey Mathia and Chris Levels were formally nominated as candidates of the U.S. Taxpayers Party of Michigan for the offices of governor and lieutenant governor.

According to Stacey Mathia's official press release, "The Convention applauded Mathia's agenda to institute Law-Abiding Constitutional Government and State Sovereignty in order to free the People of Michigan from the political oppression of big government operating outside of its authority."[54]

The press release also stated, "Chris Levels, is currently well known as a radio talk show host on WSNL in the Flint, Michigan area. His last minute nomination speech will be available on Mathia's website. The USTPM Convention gave him a standing applause."

General election

Debates

On August 12, it was reported that Virg Bernero accepted invitations to three debates. The first debate would be held September 21 and sponsored by WOOD-TV in Grand Rapids. The second debate would be held October 7 and be broadcast on 55 radio and TV stations throughout the state. The third debate would be held October 21 and would be sponsored by WXYZ-TV, WWJ (AM) and Crain's Detroit Business.[55] Then in early September, Bernero offered Snyder a deal of eight debates. Snyder proposed a counter-offer of three debates, which Bernero refused.[56] A Detroit Free Press editorial was critical of Snyder for not agreeing to debates.[57] Bernero called Snyder a wimp for not agreeing to debate him.[58] An impromptu debate developed after Bernero crashed a town hall meeting Snyder was hosting in Westland on September 13.[59] The two sides agreed to an hour-long televised debate, broadcast on October 10 from the studios of WTVS in Wixom.[60] A group of Detroit clergy invited the two major party candidates to a debate there on October 21. Only Bernero accepted the invitation.[61]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[62] Likely R (flip) October 14, 2010
Rothenberg[63] Likely R (flip) October 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics[64] Likely R (flip) November 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball[65] Likely R (flip) October 28, 2010
CQ Politics[66] Tossup October 28, 2010

Polling

Poll source Dates administered Virg
Bernero (D) 		Rick
Snyder (R)
Detroit News/WDIV Local 4[67] October 25–26, 2010 35% 53%
Free Press/WXYZ-TV Channel 7[68] October 23–26, 2010 37% 55%
Rossman Group/Team TelCom[69] October 18, 2010 36% 50%
Rasmussen Reports[70] October 17, 2010 34% 54%
Mitchell Research[71] October 10, 2010 29% 49%
EPIC-MRA[72] October 3–7, 2010 29% 49%
Rasmussen Reports[73] September 20, 2010 38% 51%
Public Policy Polling[74] September 17–19, 2010 31% 52%
Mitchell Research[75] August 25–29, 2010 26% 53%
Detroit News[76] August 9–10, 2010 32% 51%
Rasmussen Reports[77] August 4, 2010 37% 49%
Rasmussen Reports[78] June 10, 2010 30% 42%
Public Policy Polling[79] May 25–27, 2010 28% 44%
EPIC-MRA[28] May 22–26, 2010 28% 51%
EPIC-MRA[80] March 28–31, 2010 29% 42%
Michigan Research Group[81] March 10–15, 2010 26% 42%

Results

2010 Michigan gubernatorial election[82]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Rick Snyder 1,874,834 58.11% +15.81%
Democratic Virg Bernero 1,287,320 39.90% −16.46%
Libertarian Ken Proctor 22,390 0.69% +0.08%
Constitution Stacey Mathia 20,818 0.65% +0.46%
Green Harley Mikkelson 20,699 0.64% +0.12%
Write-ins 27 0.00% 0.00%
Majority 587,514 18.21% +4.15%
Turnout 3,226,088 −15.13%
Republican gain from Democratic Swing

Results by county

County Rick Snyder (R) Virg Bernero (D) Others
Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes
Alcona 63.4% 2,896 33.2% 1,518 3.4% 155
Alger 54.9% 2,075 41.3% 1,559 3.8% 143
Allegan 72.3% 26,990 25.3% 9,438 2.4% 895
Alpena 57.1% 5,753 39.6% 3,982 3.3% 333
Antrim 70.6% 7,295 26.6% 2,753 2.8% 288
Arenac 64.0% 3,521 33.2% 1,825 2.9% 159
Baraga 59.5% 1,578 37.1% 983 3.5% 92
Barry 72.8% 15,300 25.0% 5,243 2.2% 470
Bay 59.6% 23,622 38.2% 15,147 2.2% 868
Benzie 62.3% 4,709 34.7% 2,625 2.9% 222
Berrien 62.2% 28,519 35.3% 16,178 2.5% 1,123
Branch 71.9% 9,183 25.9% 3,306 2.3% 290
Calhoun 62.8% 25,967 35.2% 14,572 2.0% 809
Cass 63.6% 8,879 33.4% 4,661 2.9% 411
Charlevoix 68.8% 7,048 28.5% 2,918 2.8% 283
Cheboygan 67.2% 6,775 29.9% 3,016 2.8% 285
Chippewa 60.7% 7,114 36.4% 4,261 2.9% 345
Clare 64.8% 6,078 32.2% 3,018 3.0% 279
Clinton 65.5% 18,425 32.8% 9,239 1.7% 466
Crawford 66.2% 3,233 30.3% 1,477 3.5% 171
Delta 57.8% 7,558 39.2% 5,122 3.0% 397
Dickinson 63.5% 5,910 33.7% 3,134 2.9% 266
Eaton 59.7% 24,927 38.1% 15,899 2.2% 921
Emmet 69.7% 9,183 27.6% 3,632 2.8% 368
Genesee 46.7% 62,589 51.3% 68,708 2.0% 2,635
Gladwin 64.0% 5,756 33.2% 2,986 2.7% 247
Gogebic 47.3% 2,511 49.4% 2,627 3.3% 176
Grand Traverse 69.6% 23,541 27.8% 9,395 2.6% 879
Gratiot 65.6% 7,234 32.1% 3,537 2.3% 253
Hillsdale 71.2% 10,055 26.0% 3,675 2.7% 388
Houghton 59.9% 7,295 36.8% 4,479 3.3% 397
Huron 69.9% 8,453 27.7% 3,347 2.5% 297
Ingham 49.0% 43,181 48.8% 42,961 2.2% 1,927
Ionia 72.2% 13,269 25.9% 4,754 1.9% 358
Iosco 61.5% 5,943 35.5% 3,435 3.0% 287
Iron 56.0% 2,516 40.6% 1,825 3.4% 154
Isabella 61.7% 9,865 36.1% 5,776 2.2% 345
Jackson 64.1% 31,914 34.0% 16,947 1.9% 961
Kalamazoo 59.4% 46,823 38.7% 30,499 1.9% 1,535
Kalkaska 70.5% 4,096 25.3% 1,467 4.2% 245
Kent 68.9% 134,019 29.4% 57,142 1.8% 3,448
Keweenaw 62.9% 691 34.1% 374 3.0% 33
Lake 60.5% 2,220 36.9% 1,354 2.7% 98
Lapeer 66.8% 19,771 30.7% 9,072 2.5% 752
Leelanau 65.5% 7,467 32.1% 3,655 2.4% 278
Lenawee 61.9% 19,611 35.6% 11,284 2.4% 769
Livingston 75.0% 51,560 23.3% 15,994 1.7% 1,147
Luce 65.9% 1,285 31.5% 615 2.6% 50
Mackinac 65.7% 3,129 31.8% 1,511 2.5% 119
Macomb 61.3% 164,660 36.7% 98,675 2.0% 5,365
Manistee 60.3% 5,513 36.6% 3,352 3.1% 282
Marquette 49.2% 10,690 47.4% 10,301 3.3% 727
Mason 67.0% 6,871 30.7% 3,152 2.3% 239
Mecosta 68.3% 8,079 29.5% 3,485 2.3% 268
Menominee 57.6% 4,114 39.1% 2,797 3.3% 234
Midland 70.1% 20,262 27.8% 8,041 2.1% 615
Missaukee 76.7% 4,057 20.9% 1,105 2.4% 127
Monroe 60.3% 28,911 37.4% 17,917 2.4% 1,139
Montcalm 68.2% 12,170 29.4% 5,237 2.4% 433
Montmorency 67.8% 2,625 28.7% 1,113 3.5% 136
Muskegon 53.9% 27,567 44.1% 22,552 2.0% 1,006
Newaygo 70.2% 10,503 27.4% 4,101 2.4% 364
Oakland 60.1% 272,040 38.4% 173,615 1.5% 6,982
Oceana 67.7% 5,710 30.2% 2,549 2.1% 175
Ogemaw 64.4% 4,866 32.3% 2,442 3.3% 248
Ontonagon 54.9% 1,585 40.8% 1,176 4.3% 124
Osceola 72.1% 5,518 24.9% 1,901 3.0% 229
Oscoda 66.8% 2,079 28.8% 896 4.3% 135
Otsego 70.3% 6,130 26.9% 2,349 2.7% 238
Ottawa 79.1% 71,847 19.3% 17,534 1.6% 1,437
Presque Isle 62.5% 3,427 34.5% 1,892 3.0% 163
Roscommon 65.1% 6,450 31.8% 3,157 3.1% 306
Saginaw 55.7% 37,920 42.6% 29,008 1.7% 1,159
St. Clair 66.0% 34,503 31.4% 16,425 2.6% 1,340
St. Joseph 70.6% 10,794 27.0% 4,126 2.4% 374
Sanilac 71.8% 9,576 25.9% 3,453 2.3% 309
Schoolcraft 56.3% 1,787 40.5% 1,285 3.3% 104
Shiawassee 60.9% 14,245 36.8% 8,595 2.3% 546
Tuscola 66.1% 12,314 31.4% 5,850 2.4% 455
Van Buren 64.1% 13,985 33.3% 7,264 2.7% 579
Washtenaw 48.4% 58,029 49.9% 59,829 1.8% 2,147
Wayne 38.3% 201,424 60.2% 316,514 1.5% 7,812
Wexford 70.5% 7,251 26.3% 2,707 3.1% 320

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

References

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Debates

Official campaign sites (archived)