South West Norfolk in the 2024 United Kingdom general election

2024 United Kingdom general election
in South West Norfolk
← 2019 4 July 2024 Next →
South West Norfolk constituency
  First party Second party Third party
 
Ref
Candidate Terry Jermy Liz Truss Toby McKenzie
Party Labour Conservative Reform UK
Popular vote 11,847 11,217 9,958
Percentage 26.7% 25.3% 22.4%
Swing Increase 8.6 pp Decrease 43.7 pp New
  Fourth party Fifth party
 
Candidate James Bagge Josie Ratcliffe
Party Independent Liberal Democrats
Popular vote 6,282 2,618
Percentage 14.2% 5.9%
Swing New Decrease 2.2 pp
MP before election

Liz Truss
Conservative

Elected MP

Terry Jermy
Labour

An election took place in the East Anglia constituency of South West Norfolk on 4 July 2024, as part of the 2024 general election. Liz Truss, the shortest-serving British prime minister in history, was standing for re-election as MP. On 2 July, in anticipation of a large Labour victory in the general election, a national poll of voters by Portland Communications had shown that Truss was the Conservative politician most people (28%) wanted to see lose their seat.[1]

Suffering from both a reduction in popular support and vote splitting with Reform UK candidate Toby McKenzie and independent James Bagge, Truss lost her seat with a 43.7% fall in the Conservative vote share, despite having won 69% of the vote at the previous election; The Spectator labelled the result the "Portillo moment" of the year.[2]

Background

Truss had been the Conservative Member of Parliament (MP) for South West Norfolk since 2010. At the 2019 general election she achieved a majority of 26,195 over her nearest rival,[3] making it the 11th safest Conservative seat in the country.[4] Serving as prime minister for only 49 days in 2022, Truss's tenure caused chaos in the financial markets.[3] South West Norfolk elected a Labour MP for the first time in the landslide of 1945, like most of the seats in Norfolk.[5]

Before the election there was speculation that Truss might lose the seat.[6] Though there were a number of major Conservative politicians, including Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt (who subsequently retained his seat) who were considered at risk of losing their seats in 2024, Truss was the only former prime minister standing in the election and it was believed her defeat could be "the ultimate Portillo moment".[7] South West Norfolk had been held by the Conservatives since 1964 and required a 25% swing to the Labour Party for them to lose the seat.[4]

A Survation poll on 22 June predicted that every Conservative in the Norfolk area would lose their seat.[8]

Candidates

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Liz Truss's signature

Liz Truss, a Conservative, had been the sitting MP for the constituency since 2010, having won the seat in the general election. She had become UK prime minister for a short period and was criticised by her opponents in this election for her lack of presence in her constituency.[4]

Independent candidate James Bagge had been part of the local Conservative Party that had tried to stop Truss from being preselected in 2009 as the party's candidate for the seat. A former High Sheriff of Norfolk, Bagge was unhappy with the lack of attention Truss had given to the constituency and had resigned as Deputy Lieutenant of Norfolk in January 2024 in preparation to stand against her in the forthcoming election.[9][10]

Terry Jermy, the Labour Party nominee, was a councillor for Thetford on Breckland District Council and Norfolk County Council.[3]

Green Party nominee Pallavi Devulapalli was a councillor on King's Lynn and West Norfolk Borough Council, a GP and her party's national spokesperson on health.[3]

Toby McKenzie, the nominee for Reform UK, was a former teacher.[3]

Liberal Democrat nominee Josie Ratcliffe was a councillor for Downham East on King's Lynn and West Norfolk Borough Council and had stood for her party in the same constituency for the 2019 general election.[3][11]

Campaign

When the election was announced, Truss listed her local achievements in a Facebook post, including securing £20 million of regeneration funding for the town of Thetford.[12] She went to the constituency to campaign in person and, as a former prime minister, was accompanied by close protection officers.[3] She visited a number of towns and villages in the constituency, also attending a D-Day commemoration event in Pickenham.[13] She avoided the one hustings event that took place.[14]

The other candidates treated the election as if it were a referendum about Truss's record. They argued that Truss had spent little time on constituency issues and had been a poor constituency MP. A spokesperson for Truss pointed out she held constituency surgeries, but did not advertise them for security reasons.[6]

Jermy received little support from the national Labour Party campaign and had to raise £15,000 for his local campaign through crowdfunding.[14]

Bagge launched his campaign, as a "moderate" Independent candidate, on the same date in April 2024 that Truss launched her latest book Ten Years to Save the West.[14] He received endorsements from former Conservative ministers David Gauke and Rory Stewart. Former minister Dominic Grieve campaigned in the constituency with him.[14]

McKenzie could only campaign for Reform at the weekends because he had a full-time job. He said he was realistically hoping to raise the profile of Reform in the constituency.[15]

As of 30 June, there were mixed reports about the likely result. A polling prediction by the Financial Times showed that Labour could beat the Conservatives into second place by a small 1.7% margin, with 32.1% of the vote.[4][16] Many voters were unenthusiastic or undecided. Though Bagge was unlikely to win the seat as an Independent, it was felt that the traditional Conservative vote might be split, allowing the Labour candidate to win.[4]

Results

This section is transcluded from South West Norfolk (UK Parliament constituency). (edit | history)
General election 2024: South West Norfolk[17]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Terry Jermy 11,847 26.7 +8.4
Conservative Liz Truss 11,217 25.3 −43.4
Reform UK Toby McKenzie 9,958 22.4 N/A
Independent James Bagge 6,282 14.2 N/A
Liberal Democrats Josie Ratcliffe 2,618 5.9 −2.4
Green Pallavi Devulapalli 1,838 4.1 +1.1
Monster Raving Loony Earl Elvis of East Anglia 338 0.8 −0.9
Heritage Gary Conway 160 0.4 N/A
Communist Lorraine Douglas 77 0.2 N/A
Majority 630 1.4
Turnout 44,335 59.3
Labour gain from Conservative Swing +25.8

South West Norfolk was the final result to be declared in Norfolk and Truss arrived at the count on Friday morning with only seconds to spare,[18] to a slow hand clap from the people assembled in the sports hall where the count was announced.[19] She lost the seat to Labour by 630 votes and did not give a concession speech,[20] though she gave a short interview to the BBC reporter Ros Atkins before she left.[19] The Spectator magazine labelled the result the "Portillo moment" of the year.[2] Truss became the first former UK prime minister to lose their seat in an election since 1935, when Ramsay MacDonald lost his seat in Seaham.[21]

Previous result

This section is transcluded from South West Norfolk (UK Parliament constituency). (edit | history)
General election 2019: South West Norfolk[22]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Liz Truss 35,507 69.0 +6.2
Labour Emily Blake 9,312 18.1 −9.7
Liberal Democrats Josie Ratcliffe 4,166 8.1 +3.6
Green Pallavi Devulapalli 1,645 3.2 N/A
Monster Raving Loony Earl Elvis of Outwell 836 1.6 N/A
Majority 26,195 50.9 +15.9
Turnout 51,466 65.6 −1.7
Conservative hold Swing +8.0

References

  1. ^ Schofield, Kevin (2 July 2024). "Exclusive: Voters Want Liz Truss To Be This Election's 'Michael Portillo Moment'". Huffington Post. Retrieved 3 July 2024.
  2. ^ a b Steerpike (5 July 2024). "Watch: Liz Truss loses her seat". The Spectator. Retrieved 5 July 2024.
  3. ^ a b c d e f g Worden, Clare (18 June 2024). "Liz Truss: 'People surprised to see me on doorstep'". BBC News. Retrieved 2 July 2024.
  4. ^ a b c d e Bristow, Tom (30 June 2024). "Liz Truss battles to save her skin at UK election". Politico. Retrieved 3 July 2024.
  5. ^ "General Election: Battle heats up in South Norfolk". BBC News. 21 June 2024. Retrieved 4 July 2024.
  6. ^ a b McCaffrey, Darren (23 June 2024). "Liz Truss' constituency hangs in the balance after voters look to cast ballots on her record as PM". Sky News. Retrieved 2 July 2024.
  7. ^ Ford, Robert (30 June 2024). "Ten things to watch as the UK general election results roll in". The Observer. Retrieved 2 July 2024.
  8. ^ Storey, Eleanor (22 June 2024). "Tories could face wipeout in Norfolk, according to new poll". Diss Express. Retrieved 2 July 2024.
  9. ^ Storey, Eleanor (6 January 2024). "Turnip Taliban's James Bagge to stand against Liz Truss". Eastern Daily Press. Retrieved 3 July 2024.
  10. ^ Walters, Simon (6 January 2024). "Turnip Taliban bid to unseat Liz Truss". Independent.co.uk. Retrieved 3 July 2024.
  11. ^ "Notional results for a UK general election on 12 December 2019". Rallings & Thrasher, Professor David Denver (Scotland), Nicholas Whyte (NI) for Sky News, PA, BBC News and ITV News. UK Parliament. Retrieved 11 July 2024.
  12. ^ Bardsley, Daniel (30 May 2024). "With her reputation battered, can 49-day prime minister Liz Truss win another term as MP?". The National UK. Retrieved 4 July 2024.
  13. ^ Johnston, Kris (30 June 2024). "General election 2024: Liz Truss insists she is 'not complacent' ahead of South West Norfolk vote". Fenland Citizen. Retrieved 4 July 2024.
  14. ^ a b c d Ben, Riley-Smith (2 July 2024). "The unlikely revolutionary hoping to unseat Liz Truss". The Telegraph. Retrieved 4 July 2024.
  15. ^ Kris, Johnston (28 June 2024). "Election Exclusives: Reform UK candidate Toby McKenzie 'in it to win it' against Liz Truss in South West Norfolk". Lynn News. Retrieved 5 July 2024.
  16. ^ "Predict the UK general election result - South West Norfolk". Financial Times. Retrieved 3 July 2024.
  17. ^ "South West Norfolk results". BBC News. 7 June 2024. Retrieved 17 July 2024.
  18. ^ "Truss loses seat on bruising night for Tories in Norfolk". BBC News. 5 July 2024. Retrieved 5 July 2024.
  19. ^ a b Atkins, Ros (8 July 2024). "The Liz Truss moment: What it was like to be in the room". BBC News. Retrieved 9 July 2024.
  20. ^ Stacey, Kiran (5 July 2024). "Former Tory prime minister Liz Truss loses her seat to Labour". theguardian.com. Retrieved 5 July 2024.
  21. ^ Buchanan, Abigail (5 July 2024). "Forget 'Portillo moment' – from now on it's a Truss moment". The Telegraph. Retrieved 1 August 2024.
  22. ^ "Norfolk South West Parliamentary constituency". BBC News. BBC. Retrieved 19 November 2019.

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