Sea wall (British politics)

The coast of Great Britain. The "Sea wall" refers to the coast of England and Wales

The Sea wall is a term used by psephologists to refer to 108 constituencies along the UK coastline, generalising them as marginal.[1] They formed before the July 2024 election a majority of Conservative pluralities, so seats, many or most marginal enough to be vulnerable to Labour according to opinion polls.[2][3] As to the Red and Blue walls, the Sea wall overlaps both[4] and was used in some coverage of the 2024 general election.[5] From the 2019 general election to July 2024, Labour held 24 of these seats.[6]

These seats in England and Wales are noted, relative to the national average, for deprivation.[7][8] They are personified by tourism-based economies, the cost of living crisis, and poor connectivity.[9] Coastal residents bring home on average lower wages.[10] The availability of affordable housing has also been an issue.[11]

Before the 2024 general election, the think tank Onward called coastal areas “the forgotten battleground that could decide [this] election”.[12]

Background

The term was used 2022 local elections when the Labour Party took majority control of Worthing Borough Council just five years after winning their first councillor in the district.[13] Labour are considered to be competitive in Conservative areas within the South like Plymouth, Bournemouth, Southampton, and Portsmouth.[14]

Research from the Fabian Society was reported on that Labour had unprecedented polling leads over the Conservatives.[15] The "sea wall" is regarded by them as an important area for the 2024 general election.[16] YouGov polling showed that 44% of voters in the Sea wall said they would never consider voting Conservative.[17]

Jaywick in Tendring District in Essex is the most deprived neighbourhood in England.[18] The Clacton constituency was noted for being the only place to elect a UKIP MP in a general election.[19] Since Brexit, Conservative support in coastal areas that voted Leave has been waning.[20] On 3 June 2024, Nigel Farage took over Reform UK and announced his candidacy in Clacton.[21]

Elections in the 2020s

Labour won the 2024 Blackpool South by-election with a large swing.[22] Channel 4 reported during the 2024 election that the coastal towns in the sea wall would determine the election.[23]

In the 2024 United Kingdom general election, Labour had a breakthrough in coastal England, winning coastal areas they never had before in Cornwall, Dorset, Somerset, the Isle of Wight, West Sussex, Kent, Norfolk and Essex.[24]

See also

References

  1. ^ "National Swing Man, the British electorate's new-old tribe". The Economist. ISSN 0013-0613. Retrieved 2024-04-09.
  2. ^ Walker, Ben (2022-12-14). "How Labour has overtaken the Conservatives in "Sea Wall" battlegrounds". State of the Nation. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  3. ^ "Labour lead grows in 'sea wall' constituencies, polling shows". Sky News. Retrieved 2024-05-30.
  4. ^ Savage, Michael (2023-06-10). "Labour has clear lead over Tories in more than 100 battleground seats, poll finds". The Observer. ISSN 0029-7712. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  5. ^ "Labour lead grows in 'sea wall' constituencies, polling shows". Sky News. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  6. ^ Boucott-Owen, Mason (16 December 2022). "Tories set to lose 'Sea Wall' of coastal seats". The Yorkshire Post.
  7. ^ "Seaside towns among most deprived communities in UK". The Guardian. Press Association. 2017-09-04. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  8. ^ "Coastal communities among worst off in UK, report finds". BBC News. 2017-09-03. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  9. ^ Thomas, Jane (2024-01-11). "Sea wall replaces red wall: can Labour win the coast?". Yorkshire Bylines. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  10. ^ "Coastal communities: Residents earn £1,600 less than people inland". BBC News. 2019-10-09. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  11. ^ "Locals at risk of being priced out of Britain's prettiest coastal towns". Sky News. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  12. ^ Green, Daniel (2024-04-14). "Adur local elections: How a red wave can end 25-year Tory grip on south coast". LabourList. Retrieved 2024-04-24.
  13. ^ "Sussex election results 2022: Labour wins control of Worthing for first time". BBC News. 2022-05-06. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  14. ^ Stewart, Heather (2022-05-06). "From 'red wall' to 'sea wall': five things we learned from the local elections". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  15. ^ "Labour lead grows in 'sea wall' constituencies, polling shows | Politics News - The South Yorkshire Scoop". thesouthyorkshirescoop.com. 2024-02-23. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  16. ^ "Breaching the Sea Wall | Fabian Society". Fabian Society - The Fabian Society is Britain’s oldest political think tank. Founded in 1884, the Society is at the forefront of developing political ideas and public policy on the left. 2022-12-14. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  17. ^ FM, Seaside. "Labour lead grows in 'sea wall' constituencies, polling shows". Seaside FM. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  18. ^ "England's most deprived areas named as Jaywick and Blackpool". BBC News. 2019-09-26. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  19. ^ McSmith, Andy (10 October 2014). "Clacton by-election: Douglas Carswell becomes Ukip's first ever elected MP after a sensational victory". The Independent.
  20. ^ Moore, Hannah (2023-09-19). "Clacton-on-Sea: the 'forgotten' town that voted for Brexit". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  21. ^ "Nigel Farage to run as Reform UK candidate in Clacton". BBC News. 2024-06-03. Retrieved 2024-06-28.
  22. ^ Stacey, Kiran; Vinter, Robyn (2024-05-03). "Starmer hails Blackpool South win as result points to big Labour victory at general election". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 2024-05-05.
  23. ^ Moodley, Kiran (2024-06-12). "Could votes from 'Sea Wall' constituencies determine the election?". Channel 4 News. Retrieved 2024-06-12.
  24. ^ "General election 2024 results in maps and charts". BBC News. 2024-07-04. Retrieved 2024-08-28.