2024 United States presidential election in Oregon

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election
2024 United States presidential election in Oregon
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
 
Nominee Kamala Harris Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state California Florida
Running mate Tim Walz JD Vance
Projected electoral vote 8 0
Popular vote 1,240,600 919,480
Percentage 55.27% 40.97%
President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

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The 2024 United States presidential election in Oregon took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Oregon voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Oregon has eight electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat.[1]

Democrats have won Oregon in every presidential election starting in 1988, and have consistently done so by double digits starting in 2008. A blue state, although not as strongly as neighboring California and Washington, Oregon is part of the Democratic-leaning West Coast, and was predicted to go comfortably for Democrat Kamala Harris (from neighboring California) in 2024.[2]

Harris carried Oregon by 14.3%. Oregon shifted rightward by 1.77 points in this election, as Biden had won Oregon by 16.1% in 2020. This was in contrast to Harris significantly underperforming Biden in many other blue states, including her home state of California. Trump flipped back Marion County, after losing it in 2020 but winning it in 2016. This is the first time since 1988 that Oregon voted more Democratic than New York.

Primary elections

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 Oregon Republican presidential primary

The Oregon Republican primary was held on May 21, 2024, the same date as the Kentucky caucuses.

Oregon Republican primary, May 21, 2024[3]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Pledged Unpledged Total
Donald Trump 294,744 91.6% 31 31
Write-in votes 27,209 8.5%
Total: 321,983 100.0% 31 31

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 Oregon Democratic presidential primary

The Oregon Democratic primary was held on May 21, 2024, the same date as the Kentucky primary.

Oregon Democratic primary, May 21, 2024[4]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Pledged Unpledged Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 397,702 87.1% 66 66
Marianne Williamson 33,603 7.4%
Write-in votes 25,135 5.5%
Total: 456,440 100.0% 66 12 78

Minor parties

Minor parties in Oregon nominate by nominating delegates to their national conventions, or for the We the People and Independent parties, holding a nominating convention. They are allowed to self-finance a primary, but no party chose to do so. The following candidates' nominations were accepted by the Oregon Secretary of State:

Minor Party Nominations in Oregon
Party Candidate
Libertarian Chase Oliver
We The People Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Progressive Party Cornel West
Pacific Green Jill Stein
Constitution Party Randall Terry

The Republican Party issued a legal challenge to Libertarian party ballot access that was rejected by the Secretary of State.[5]

General election

Oregon is considered solidly Democratic, and Donald Trump did not pay the $3,500 required for a candidate statement in the ballot handbook, although candidate statements were provided by the Democratic, We the People, Libertarian, and Pacific Green candidates.[6] Notably, Oregon's third-largest party, the Independent Party of Oregon, did not nominate a candidate, although it had cross-nominated Joe Biden in 2020.[7]

In the early hours of October 28, an incendiary device was placed in a ballot drop box in Portland. A total of 3 ballots were damaged, while the rest were unharmed due to the ballot box's fire suppression system.[8]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[9] Solid D December 19, 2023
Inside Elections[10] Solid D April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[11] Safe D June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[12] Safe D August 26, 2024
CNalysis[13] Solid D December 30, 2023
The Economist[14] Safe D September 12, 2024
538[15] Solid D October 23, 2024
NBC News[16] Safe D October 6, 2024
YouGov[17] Safe D October 16, 2024
Split Ticket[18] Safe D November 1, 2024

Polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[19][A] October 16–17, 2024 716 (LV) ± 3.7% 53% 41% 6%
Hoffman Research[20] July 24–26, 2024 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 49% 44% 7%
Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Other /
Undecided
Hoffman Research[20] July 24–26, 2024 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 45% 40% 7% 1% 7%
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
The Bullfinch Group[21][B] April 16–23, 2024 250 (RV) ± 6.2% 52% 40% 8%
John Zogby Strategies[22][C] April 13–21, 2024 419 (LV) – 47% 44% 9%
Emerson College[23] October 31 – November 1, 2022 975 (LV) ± 3.1% 51% 35% 14%
Emerson College[24] September 30 – October 1, 2022 796 (LV) ± 3.4% 50% 41% 9%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Other /
Undecided
The Bullfinch Group[21][B] April 16–23, 2024 250 (RV) ± 6.2% 40% 29% 19% 1% 3% 8%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[22][C] April 13–21, 2024 419 (LV) – 40% 49% 11%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[22][C] April 13–21, 2024 419 (LV) – 42% 39% 19%

Results

2024 United States presidential election in Oregon[25]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic
1,240,600 55.27% Decrease 1.18%
Republican
919,480 40.97% Increase 0.60%
We the People
33,733 1.50% N/A
Pacific Green
19,099 0.85% Increase 0.35%
Libertarian
9,061 0.40% Decrease 1.35%
Progressive
5,644 0.25% Increase 0.04%
Constitution
1,850 0.08% N/A
Write-in 15,026 0.67% Decrease 0.05%
Total votes 2,244,493 100.00% N/A

By county

County Kamala Harris
Democratic 		Donald Trump
Republican 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Baker 2,343 24.17% 7,060 72.83% 291 3.00% -4,717 -48.66% 9,694
Benton 33,909 67.50% 14,187 28.24% 2,136 4.25% 19,722 39.26% 50,232
Clackamas 130,580 53.03% 106,387 43.20% 9,273 3.77% 24,193 9.83% 246,240
Clatsop 12,533 53.81% 9,913 42.56% 844 3.62% 2,620 11.25% 23,290
Columbia 12,895 41.15% 17,227 54.98% 1,212 3.87% -4,332 -13.83% 31,334
Coos 13,731 38.42% 20,849 58.34% 1,155 3.23% -7,118 -19.92% 35,735
Crook 3,836 23.54% 12,012 73.71% 449 2.76% -8,176 -50.17% 16,297
Curry 5,737 40.40% 8,000 56.34% 463 3.26% -2,263 -15.94% 14,200
Deschutes 68,108 53.47% 54,850 43.06% 4,417 3.47% 13,258 10.41% 127,375
Douglas 18,386 29.75% 41,561 67.24% 1,860 3.01% -23,175 -37.49% 61,807
Gilliam 291 25.66% 805 70.99% 38 3.35% -514 -45.33% 1,134
Grant 816 18.31% 3,490 78.32% 150 3.37% -2,674 -60.01% 4,456
Harney 797 18.73% 3,307 77.72% 151 3.55% -2,510 -58.99% 4,255
Hood River 8,364 65.82% 3,854 30.33% 489 3.85% 4,510 35.49% 12,707
Jackson 54,065 45.22% 61,743 51.64% 3,764 3.15% -7,678 -6.42% 119,572
Jefferson 3,941 33.54% 7,454 63.44% 355 3.02% -3,513 -29.90% 11,750
Josephine 16,928 34.11% 31,129 62.72% 1,571 3.17% -14,201 -28.61% 49,628
Klamath 9,856 27.75% 24,675 69.48% 984 2.77% -14,819 -41.73% 35,515
Lake 681 16.16% 3,421 81.20% 111 2.63% -2,740 -65.04% 4,213
Lane 125,775 59.53% 77,376 36.62% 8,134 3.85% 48,399 22.91% 211,285
Lincoln 17,112 57.42% 11,645 39.07% 1,047 3.51% 5,467 18.35% 29,804
Linn 25,749 36.05% 43,078 60.31% 2,602 3.64% -17,329 -24.26% 71,429
Malheur 2,884 26.35% 7,710 70.44% 351 3.21% -4,826 -44.09% 10,945
Marion 73,970 47.21% 77,089 49.20% 5,632 3.59% -3,119 -1.99% 156,691
Morrow 1,138 24.05% 3,408 72.02% 186 3.93% -2,270 -47.97% 4,732
Multnomah 325,927 78.68% 70,759 17.08% 17,564 4.24% 255,168 61.60% 414,250
Polk 22,034 46.30% 23,768 49.94% 1,791 3.76% -1,734 -3.64% 47,593
Sherman 233 20.03% 890 76.53% 40 3.44% -657 -56.50% 1,163
Tillamook 7,747 47.67% 7,971 49.05% 534 3.29% -224 -1.38% 16,252
Umatilla 9,251 29.63% 20,973 67.17% 1,001 3.21% -11,722 -37.54% 31,225
Union 4,107 28.18% 9,942 68.22% 525 3.60% -5,835 -40.04% 14,574
Wallowa 1,573 30.79% 3,366 65.90% 169 3.31% -1,793 -35.11% 5,108
Wasco 6,069 45.32% 6,837 51.06% 485 3.62% -768 -5.74% 13,391
Washington 193,013 64.78% 92,590 31.08% 12,346 4.14% 100,423 33.70% 297,949
Wheeler 210 24.19% 618 71.20% 40 4.61% -408 -47.01% 868
Yamhill 26,011 45.00% 29,536 51.10% 2,253 3.90% -3,525 -6.10% 57,800
Totals 1,240,600 55.27% 919,480 40.97% 84,413 3.76% 321,120 14.30% 2,244,493

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Harris won 5 of 6 congressional districts.[26][user-generated source]

District Harris Trump Representative
1st 66.76% 29.16% Suzanne Bonamici
2nd 34.35% 60.90% Cliff Bentz
3rd 70.74% 25.11% Earl Blumenauer (118th Congress)
Maxine Dexter (119th Congress)
4th 54.14% 42.16% Val Hoyle
5th 52.49% 43.80% Lori Chavez-DeRemer (118th Congress)
Janelle Bynum (119th Congress)
6th 53.75% 42.45% Andrea Salinas

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d e f Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

Partisan clients

  1. ^ This poll was sponsored by the Northwest Progressive Institute
  2. ^ a b Poll sponsored by The Independent Center
  3. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign

References

  1. ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
  2. ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved December 18, 2023.
  3. ^ "Oregon Presidential Election Results 2024". NBC News. Retrieved June 5, 2024.
  4. ^ "Oregon Presidential Primary". The AP. June 4, 2024. Retrieved July 12, 2024.
  5. ^ Shumway, Julia (July 29, 2024). "Despite denials, records show Oregon Republican Party trying to keep Libertarians off the ballot". Oregon Capital Chronicle.
  6. ^ Shumway, Julia (September 3, 2024). "Trump won't appear in Oregon's voters' pamphlet, will still be on ballot". Oregon Capital Chronicle.
  7. ^ "2024 Nominations of the Independent Party of Oregon".
  8. ^ Ortiz, Erik (October 28, 2024). "Ballot drop boxes set on fire in Portland, Ore., and Vancouver, Wash". NBC News. Retrieved October 28, 2024.
  9. ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  10. ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  11. ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  12. ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved August 26, 2024.
  13. ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  14. ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved September 13, 2024.
  15. ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 25, 2024.
  16. ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
  17. ^ "2024 Presidential Election Polls". YouGov.
  18. ^ "2024 Presidential Forcast". Split Ticket. June 2, 2023.
  19. ^ Villeneuve, Andrew (October 17, 2024). "Kamala Harris has a fifteen point lead over Donald Trump in Washington and a twelve point lead in Oregon, NPI polls find". Northwest Progressive Institute.
  20. ^ a b Jaquiss, Nigel (July 30, 2024). "New Poll Shows Harris With 5–Point Lead Over Trump in Oregon". Willamette Week.
  21. ^ a b "Independent Center 2024 Pacific State Survey Toplines" (PDF). The Independent Center. April 23, 2024. Archived from the original (PDF) on May 10, 2024.
  22. ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  23. ^ Mumford, Camille (November 4, 2022). "Oregon 2022: Independent Candidates' Support Melts As Democrat Tina Kotek Leads Republican Christine Drazan by Four for Governor". Emerson Polling.
  24. ^ Mumford, Camille (October 4, 2022). "Oregon 2022: Republican Christine Drazan with Two-Point Lead Over Democrat Tina Kotek for Governorship; Sen. Wyden Holds 19-Point Lead in Re-election Bid". Emerson Polling.
  25. ^ "November 5, 2024, General Election Abstract of Votes" (PDF). Oregon SOS. December 12, 2024. Retrieved December 12, 2024.
  26. ^ 2024 Pres by CD. docs.google.com (Report).