2024 United States presidential election in Massachusetts

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election
2024 United States presidential election in Massachusetts
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
 
Nominee Kamala Harris Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state California Florida
Running mate Tim Walz JD Vance
Electoral vote 11 0
Popular vote 2,126,518 1,251,303
Percentage 61.22% 36.02%
President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Elections in
Massachusetts
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U.S. House
State government
Governor
State Senate
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Ballot measures
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Mayor
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Mayor
Worcester
Mayor
flag Massachusetts portal

The 2024 United States presidential election in Massachusetts was held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections. Massachusetts voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Massachusetts has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College.

A New England state, Massachusetts had been a Democratic leaning state since 1928, and a Democratic stronghold since 1960, and is still considered a deeply blue state today.[a] Democrats have consistently defeated Republicans by large margins in Massachusetts since 1996. In 2020, Biden won the state by more than 33%, the largest margin since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964.

Harris won Massachusetts, including every county in the state, winning it by 25 points. This was an 8-point smaller margin than Biden, following a trend of blue states, such as New York, California and Illinois, shifting significantly red—possibly as a result of poor turnout for Democrats compared to 2020 and 2016.[1]

Background

Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden was running for re-election to a second term, and became the party's presumptive nominee, but withdrew from the race on July 21.[2][3][4] He then endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day.[5] The Republican nominee was former president Donald Trump.[6]

Four other minor candidates appeared on the ballot,[7] including Green-Rainbow Party candidate Jill Stein, Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver, Socialism and Liberation Party Claudia de la Cruz, and independent perennial candidate Shiva Ayyadurai. Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., did not appear on the ballot in his home state.[8]

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 Massachusetts Democratic presidential primary

The Massachusetts Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Massachusetts Democratic primary, March 5, 2024[9]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Pledged Unpledged Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 533,096 80.5% 91 91
No Preference 60,236 9.1% 1 1
Dean Phillips 29,728 4.5%
Marianne Williamson 20,402 3.1%
Other candidates 10,135 1.5%
Cenk Uygur (write-in) 82 <0.1%
Blank ballots 8,930 1.3%
Total: 662,609 100% 92 92

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 Massachusetts Republican presidential primary

The Massachusetts Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Massachusetts Republican primary, March 5, 2024[10]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 343,189 59.56% 40 0 40
Nikki Haley 211,440 36.69% 0 0 0
No Preference 5,717 0.99% 0 0 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 5,217 0.91% 0 0 0
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) 3,981 0.69% 0 0 0
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) 1,738 0.30% 0 0 0
Other candidates 1,674 0.29% 0 0 0
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) 619 0.11% 0 0 0
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) 527 0.09% 0 0 0
Blank ballots 2,148 0.37% 0 0 0
Total: 576,250 100.00% 40 0 40


Libertarian primary

Main article: 2024 Libertarian Party presidential primaries § Schedule

The Massachusetts Libertarian primary was held on March 5, 2024.

Massachusetts Libertarian primary, March 5, 2024
Candidate Votes Percentage
No Preference 3,982 36.45%
Chase Oliver 1,453 13.30%
Jacob Hornberger 1,089 9.97%
Michael Rectenwald 546 5.00%
Lars Mapstead 399 3.65%
Mike ter Maat 314 2.87%
All Others 2,161 19.78%
Blank ballots 980 8.97%
Total: 10,924 100.00%
Source:[11]

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[12] Solid D December 19, 2023
Inside Elections[13] Solid D April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[14] Safe D June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[15] Safe D December 14, 2023
CNalysis[16] Solid D December 30, 2023
CNN[17] Solid D January 14, 2024
The Economist[18] Safe D June 12, 2024
538[19] Solid D June 11, 2024
RCP[20] Solid D June 26, 2024
NBC News[21] Safe D October 6, 2024

Polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
ActiVote[22] October 2–30, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 66% 34% –
Emerson College[23][A] October 24–26, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 59% 36% 5%[c]
60%[d] 37% 3%[c]
ActiVote[24] September 6 – October 16, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 67% 33% –
MassINC Polling Group[25][B] September 12–18, 2024 800 (LV) ± 4.1% 63% 35% 2%[e]

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Other /
Undecided
University of New Hampshire[26] October 29 – November 2, 2024 744 (LV) ± 3.6% 60% 34% – 2% 1% 3%[f]
YouGov[27][C] October 3–10, 2024 700 (A) ± 4.8% 56% 30% – 2% 1% 11%[g]
Suffolk University[28][D] October 1–4, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 61% 32% – 1% 0% 6%[g]
University of New Hampshire[29] September 12–16, 2024 546 (LV) ± 4.1% 62% 31% – 2% 0% 5%
Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Other /
Undecided
MassINC Polling Group[30] October 29 – November 1, 2024 582 (LV) ± 4.9% 61% 31% 2% 0% 1% 0% 5%[h]
MassINC Polling Group[25] September 12–18, 2024 800 (LV) ± 4.1% 60% 32% 3% 0% 1% 0% 4%[i]
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Suffolk University[31][D] July 16–18, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 29% 24%
University of New Hampshire[32] May 16–20, 2024 526 (LV) ± 4.3% 68% 32% –
John Zogby Strategies[33][E] April 13–21, 2024 534 (LV) – 55% 36% 9%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[34] February 29 – March 3, 2024 271 (RV) – 58% 34% 8%[j]
263 (LV) 59% 34% 7%[j]
University of Massachusetts Lowell[35] October 18–25, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 4.1% 58% 32% 10%
Emerson College[36] September 7–8, 2022 708 (LV) ± 3.6% 54% 34% 12%
University of Massachusetts Lowell[37] June 7–15, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 4.0% 60% 31% 9%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Other /
Undecided
University of New Hampshire[32] May 16–20, 2024 526 (LV) ± 4.3% 55% 26% 10% 1% 2% 6%
MassINC Polling Group[38][F] March 21–29, 2024 1,002 (RV) ± 3.4% 44% 26% 7% 2% – 21%[k]
46%[d] 28% 9% 2% – 15%[l]

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
YouGov[39][C] May 17–30, 2024 700 (A) ± 4.4% 48% 27% 9% 16%
Suffolk University[40][D] April 16–20, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 52% 22% 8% 18%
Suffolk University[41] February 2–5, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 45% 26% 9% 21%
YouGov[42][C] October 13–20, 2023 700 (V) ± 5.1% 43% 21% 17% 19%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[33][E] April 13–21, 2024 534 (LV) – 48% 42% 10%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[33][E] April 13–21, 2024 534 (LV) – 46% 33% 21%

Results

2024 United States presidential election in Massachusetts[44]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic
2,126,518 61.22% Decrease 4.38
Republican
1,251,303 36.02% Increase 3.88
Green-Rainbow
26,545 0.76% Increase 0.25
Independent
18,418 0.53% N/A
Libertarian
17,735 0.51% Decrease 0.78
Socialism and Liberation
12,889 0.37% N?A
Write-in 20,260 0.58% Increase 0.13
Total votes 3,473,668 100.00% N/A

By county

County Kamala Harris
Democratic 		Donald Trump
Republican 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Barnstable 88,129 59.23% 57,451 38.61% 3,205 2.15% 30,678 20.62% 148,785
Berkshire 47,094 68.58% 19,805 28.84% 1,775 2.58% 27,289 39.74% 68,674
Bristol 137,786 49.56% 134,196 48.27% 6,035 2.17% 3,590 1.29% 278,017
Dukes 9,137 74.84% 2,745 22.48% 327 2.68% 6,392 52.36% 12,209
Essex 236,624 58.88% 155,336 38.66% 9,891 2.46% 81,288 20.22% 401,851
Franklin 28,305 67.00% 12,428 29.42% 1,515 3.59% 15,877 37.58% 42,248
Hampden 110,937 53.18% 92,474 44.33% 5,193 2.49% 18,463 8.85% 208,604
Hampshire 58,617 69.19% 23,256 27.45% 2,847 3.36% 35,361 41.74% 84,720
Middlesex 554,471 68.05% 235,118 28.85% 25,243 3.10% 319,353 39.20% 814,832
Nantucket 4,784 67.21% 2,171 30.50% 163 2.29% 2,613 36.71% 7,118
Norfolk 242,712 62.81% 132,497 34.29% 11,238 2.91% 110,215 28.52% 386,447
Plymouth 159,962 53.30% 133,544 44.50% 6,623 2.21% 26,418 8.80% 300,129
Suffolk 222,280 74.29% 66,480 22.22% 10,433 3.49% 155,800 52.07% 299,193
Worcester 225,680 53.63% 183,802 43.67% 11,359 2.70% 41,878 9.96% 420,841
Totals 2,126,518 61.22% 1,251,303 36.02% 95,847 2.76% 875,215 25.20% 3,473,668

By congressional district

Harris won all nine congressional districts.[45][user-generated source]

District Harris Trump Representative
1st 55.63% 41.86% Richard Neal
2nd 60.26% 36.71% Jim McGovern
3rd 58.10% 39.27% Lori Trahan
4th 58.44% 38.86% Jake Auchincloss
5th 70.85% 25.97% Katherine Clark
6th 59.04% 38.47% Seth Moulton
7th 79.46% 16.73% Ayanna Pressley
8th 61.72% 35.49% Stephen Lynch
9th 54.29% 43.58% Bill Keating

Analysis

This was the first time that a Democrat won less than 50% of the vote in Bristol County since 1992, the closest a Republican had come to winning a single Massachusetts county since 1988, and the first time a Republican candidate won Fall River since 1924. In addition, it was the first time a Republican candidate won Somerset since 1956, and the first time a Republican candidate won Westport and Seekonk (all in Bristol County) since 1984. Of the 351 municipalities in Massachusetts, Trump flipped 26, while Harris flipped none.[46]

Harris did not flip any towns that voted for Trump in 2020, however, Trump flipped the following towns that voted for Biden in 2020:[47][48]

Athol, Barre, Bridgewater, Fall River, Florida, Hanover, Hardwick, Lynnfield, Milbury, Northbridge, Orange, Pembroke, Plympton, Raynham, Rockland, Rutland, Salisbury, Saugus, Seekonk, Somerset, Sutton, Tewksbury, Townsend, Uxbridge, Webster, Westfield, Westminster, Westport, West Brookfield, and Whitman.

See also

Notes

  1. ^ George H.W. Bush was the last Republican presidential nominee to win any counties in Massachusetts in 1988.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ a b "Someone else" with 3%
  4. ^ a b With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  5. ^ "Would not vote" with 1%
  6. ^ Claudia De la Cruz (PSL) & "Another Candidate" with 1% each
  7. ^ a b Claudia De la Cruz (PSL) & Shiva Ayyadurai (I) with 1% each
  8. ^ "Prefer not to say" with 2%; "Another candidate" & "Would not vote for president" with 1% each
  9. ^ "Another candidate" with 2%; "Would not vote" with 1%
  10. ^ a b "Another candidate" with 5%
  11. ^ "Another candidate" & "Would not vote" with 3% each
  12. ^ "Another candidate" with 4%; "Would not vote" with 3%
  13. ^ Replacement for Butch Ware, Stein's vice presidential nominee.

Partisan clients

  1. ^ Poll sponsored by WHDH
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by CommonWealth Beacon and WBUR
  3. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by the University of Massachusetts Amherst Department of Political Science & WCVB-TV
  4. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by The Boston Globe
  5. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
  6. ^ Poll sponsored by CommonWealth Beacon and WGBH-TV

References

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  2. ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
  3. ^ Chasmar, Jessica (June 13, 2022). "Biden 'running for re-election' in 2024, White House says". Foxnews.com. Retrieved June 25, 2022.
  4. ^ Levine, Sam; Gambino, Lauren (July 22, 2024). "Joe Biden withdraws from presidential race after weeks of pressure to quit". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
  5. ^ "Harris says she'll 'earn' nomination as Biden steps aside". The Washington Post. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
  6. ^ Gold, Michael; Nehamas, Nicholas (March 13, 2024). "Donald Trump and Joe Biden Clinch Their Party Nominations". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on March 13, 2024. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
  7. ^ https://www.sec.state.ma.us/divisions/elections/research-and-statistics/2024_state_election_candidates.htm
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  10. ^ "2024 President Republican Primary". Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Retrieved May 20, 2024.
  11. ^ "2024 President Libertarian Primary". Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Retrieved March 12, 2024.
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  27. ^ "UMass Amherst/WCVB Poll Finds Bay State Residents Evenly Split on 'Psychedelics,' Majority Support Eliminating MCAS as High School Graduation Requirement and Other Ballot Questions". University of Massachusetts Amherst. October 15, 2024.
  28. ^ Stout, Matt; Huynh, Anjali (October 8, 2024). "Mass. voters overwhelmingly back Harris over Trump, eliminating MCAS graduation requirement, Suffolk/Globe poll finds". The Boston Globe.
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  30. ^ "Final MPG poll of Massachusetts voters find Harris, Warren maintaining commanding leads". MassINC Polling Group. November 1, 2024.
  31. ^ Stout, Matt; Huynh, Anjali (July 19, 2024). "'I think he cannot win.' New Globe/Suffolk poll shows strong unhappiness with Biden as the nominee". The Boston Globe.
  32. ^ a b McKinley, Sean; Smith, Andrew; Azem, Zachary; Keirns, Tracy (May 23, 2024). "Biden Holds Large Lead Over Trump & Kennedy in MA; Residents Divided About Campus Protests". University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository.
  33. ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
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