2024 United States presidential election in North Dakota

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election
2024 United States presidential election in North Dakota
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
 
Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris
Party Republican Democratic–NPL
Home state Florida California
Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz
Projected electoral vote 3 0
Popular vote 246,505 112,327
Percentage 66.96% 30.51%
County results
President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic-NPL

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

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The 2024 United States presidential election in North Dakota took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. North Dakota voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of North Dakota has three electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]

On election night, Trump carried the state with an overwhelming victory margin of 36.45%, the highest out of any Republican presidential victory in the state since 1980.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 North Dakota Democratic presidential primary

The North Dakota Democratic primary was held mostly through mail in ballots. Limited in person voting was held, and all ballots were due March 30, 2024.

North Dakota Democratic primary, February 20 – March 30, 2024 [2]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Pledged Unpledged Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 840 92.4% 13 13
Marianne Williamson 31 3.4%
Dean Phillips (withdrawn) 16 1.8%
Cenk Uygur (withdrawn) 13 1.4%
Eban Cambridge 4 0.4%
Stephen Lyons (withdrawn) 3 0.3%
Jason Palmer 2 0.2%
Armando Perez-Serrato 0 0%
Total: 909 100.0% 13 4 17

Republican caucuses

Main article: 2024 North Dakota Republican presidential caucuses

The North Dakota Republican caucuses were held on March 4, 2024, one day before Super Tuesday, where 15 states and 865 total delegates were up for election.

North Dakota Republican caucus, March 4, 2024[3]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 1,632 84.43% 29 0 29
Nikki Haley 273 14.12% 0 0 0
David Stuckenberg 19 0.98% 0 0 0
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) 9 0.47% 0 0 0
Total: 1,933 100.00% 29 0 29

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[4] Solid R December 19, 2023
Inside Elections[5] Solid R April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[6] Safe R June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[7] Safe R December 14, 2023
CNalysis[8] Solid R December 30, 2023
CNN[9] Solid R January 14, 2024
The Economist[10] Safe R June 12, 2024
538[11] Solid R June 11, 2024
RCP[12] Solid R June 26, 2024
NBC News[13] Safe R October 6, 2024

Polling

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic–NPL 		Other /
Undecided
Lake Research Partners (D)[14][A] September 23–26, 2024 500 (LV) – 50% 40% 10%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic–NPL 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Other /
Undecided
WPA Intelligence (R)[15][B] September 28–30, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 59% 32% 1% 8%
Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic–NPL 		Other /
Undecided
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[16][C] June 15–19, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 62% 28% 10%
John Zogby Strategies[17][D] April 13–21, 2024 300 (LV) – 55% 37% 8%
Emerson College[18] October 1–4, 2023 419 (RV) ± 4.8% 54% 17% 28%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[17][D] April 13–21, 2024 300 (LV) – 51% 36% 13%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Joe
Biden
Democratic–NPL 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[17][D] April 13–21, 2024 300 (LV) – 58% 30% 12%

Results

2024 United States presidential election in North Dakota[19]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican
246,505 66.96% Increase 1.85%
Democratic–NPL
112,327 30.51% Decrease 1.27%
Libertarian
6,227 1.69% Decrease 0.91%
Write-in 3,096 0.84% Increase 0.31%
Total votes 368,155 100.00% N/A

By county

County Donald Trump
Republican 		Kamala Harris
Democratic-NPL 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Adams 962 80.10% 215 17.90% 24 2.00% 747 62.20% 1,201
Barnes 3,531 66.14% 1,661 31.11% 147 2.75% 1,870 35.03% 5,339
Benson 1,163 58.09% 795 39.71% 44 2.20% 368 18.38% 2,002
Billings 543 83.93% 93 14.37% 11 1.70% 450 69.56% 647
Bottineau 2,628 76.24% 735 21.32% 84 2.44% 1,893 54.92% 3,447
Bowman 1,384 85.54% 207 12.79% 27 1.67% 1,177 72.75% 1,618
Burke 909 86.08% 130 12.31% 17 1.61% 779 73.77% 1,056
Burleigh 36,595 70.02% 14,215 27.20% 1,453 2.78% 22,380 42.82% 52,263
Cass 47,873 52.69% 40,304 44.36% 2,674 2.94% 7,569 8.33% 90,851
Cavalier 1,461 73.53% 491 24.71% 35 1.76% 970 48.82% 1,987
Dickey 1,829 74.56% 557 22.71% 67 2.73% 1,272 51.85% 2,453
Divide 914 76.10% 253 21.07% 34 2.83% 661 55.03% 1,201
Dunn 1,877 83.72% 332 14.81% 33 1.47% 1,545 68.91% 2,242
Eddy 862 71.54% 316 26.22% 27 2.24% 546 45.32% 1,205
Emmons 1,697 87.93% 205 10.62% 28 1.45% 1,492 77.31% 1,930
Foster 1,326 77.86% 335 19.67% 42 2.47% 991 58.19% 1,703
Golden Valley 847 85.47% 122 12.31% 22 2.22% 725 73.16% 991
Grand Forks 18,123 57.70% 12,469 39.70% 819 2.61% 5,654 18.00% 30,970
Grant 1,076 82.39% 205 15.70% 25 1.91% 871 66.69% 1,306
Griggs 963 74.71% 301 23.35% 25 1.94% 662 51.36% 1,289
Hettinger 1,089 83.38% 192 14.70% 25 1.92% 897 68.68% 1,306
Kidder 1,137 81.33% 238 17.02% 23 1.64% 899 64.31% 1,398
LaMoure 1,614 76.02% 453 21.34% 56 2.64% 1,161 54.68% 2,123
Logan 898 86.93% 117 11.33% 18 1.74% 781 75.60% 1,033
McHenry 2,223 80.78% 479 17.41% 50 1.82% 1,744 63.37% 2,752
McIntosh 1,132 81.44% 229 16.47% 29 2.09% 903 64.97% 1,390
McKenzie 4,627 83.81% 809 14.65% 85 1.54% 3,818 69.16% 5,521
McLean 4,231 78.05% 1,093 20.16% 97 1.79% 3,138 57.89% 5,421
Mercer 3,798 83.38% 672 14.75% 85 1.87% 3,126 68.63% 4,555
Morton 12,839 75.36% 3,748 22.00% 449 2.63% 9,091 53.36% 17,036
Mountrail 2,877 70.64% 1,125 27.62% 71 1.74% 1,752 43.02% 4,073
Nelson 1,141 64.79% 580 32.94% 40 2.27% 561 31.85% 1,761
Oliver 909 83.62% 156 14.35% 22 2.03% 753 69.27% 1,087
Pembina 2,350 75.51% 704 22.62% 58 1.86% 1,646 52.89% 3,112
Pierce 1,493 75.79% 439 22.28% 38 1.93% 1,054 53.51% 1,970
Ramsey 3,609 68.89% 1,513 28.88% 117 2.24% 2,096 40.01% 5,239
Ransom 1,661 62.70% 920 34.73% 68 2.57% 740 27.97% 2,649
Renville 993 82.20% 179 14.82% 36 2.98% 814 67.38% 1,208
Richland 5,576 67.50% 2,473 29.94% 212 2.57% 3,103 37.56% 8,261
Rolette 1,427 35.02% 2,567 62.99% 81 1.99% -1,140 -27.97% 4,075
Sargent 1,325 64.86% 663 32.45% 55 2.69% 662 32.41% 2,043
Sheridan 644 85.07% 101 13.34% 12 1.59% 543 71.73% 757
Sioux 285 29.91% 654 68.63% 14 1.46% -369 -38.72% 953
Slope 351 90.23% 33 8.48% 5 1.28% 318 81.75% 389
Stark 12,323 81.61% 2,473 16.38% 304 2.01% 9,850 65.23% 15,100
Steele 622 61.28% 367 36.16% 26 2.57% 255 25.12% 1,015
Stutsman 7,185 70.90% 2,692 26.56% 257 2.53% 4,493 44.34% 10,134
Towner 796 71.45% 289 25.94% 29 2.60% 507 45.51% 1,114
Traill 2,650 64.40% 1,359 33.03% 106 2.58% 1,291 31.37% 4,115
Walsh 3,186 70.86% 1,173 26.09% 137 3.05% 2,013 44.77% 4,496
Ward 20,635 72.27% 7,215 25.27% 702 2.46% 13,420 47.00% 28,552
Wells 1,815 80.56% 405 17.98% 33 1.47% 1,410 62.58% 2,253
Williams 12,501 82.67% 2,276 15.05% 345 2.28% 10,225 67.62% 15,122
Totals 246,505 66.96% 112,327 30.51% 9,323 2.53% 134,178 36.45% 368,155

Analysis

A sparsely-populated Great Plains state with a predominantly White populace and electorate, North Dakota has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Lyndon B. Johnson won it in his nationwide 1964 landslide. Furthermore, it has only been decided by single digits in three presidential elections since 1964: 1976, 1996, and 2008. Agribusiness and the recent oil boom have played a key role in cementing the GOP's overwhelming popularity in the state.

North Dakota is considered a deeply red state, and Republican nominee and former president Donald Trump won it by over 30 percentage points in both 2016 and 2020. In terms of popular vote percentage, North Dakota was Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver's strongest state, with 1.7 percent.[20]

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d e Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

Partisan clients

  1. ^ Poll sponsored by the campaign of Katrina Christiansen, the Democratic nominee for North Dakota's Class 1 Senate seat
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by North Dakota News Cooperative
  3. ^ Poll sponsored by Brighter Future Alliance
  4. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign

References

  1. ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 6, 2023.
  2. ^ "North Dakota Presidential Primary". The AP. Retrieved March 29, 2024.
  3. ^ Yoon, Robert (February 29, 2024). "AP Decision Notes: What to expect in North Dakota's GOP caucuses". The AP. Retrieved March 3, 2024.
  4. ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  5. ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  6. ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  7. ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  8. ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  9. ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  10. ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
  11. ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
  12. ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
  13. ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
  14. ^ "Katrina Christiansen for Senate - November 2024 General Election" (PDF). FiveThirtyEight. October 1, 2024.
  15. ^ Standaert, Michael (October 2, 2024). "Poll: Republicans look set for sweep of top races". North Dakota News Cooperative.
  16. ^ Bolger, Glen; Nassar, George (June 26, 2024). "KEY FINDINGS – NORTH DAKOTA STATEWIDE SURVEY" (PDF). Public Opinion Strategies.
  17. ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  18. ^ Mumford, Camille (October 15, 2023). "North Dakota 2024 Poll: Senator Cramer with Comfortable Lead Over Democratic Challenger". Emerson Polling.
  19. ^ "Official (without recounts) 2024 General Election Results". Vote.nd.gov. Retrieved November 22, 2024.
  20. ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved February 15, 2024.