2018 United States Senate election in Wyoming

2018 United States Senate election in Wyoming
← 2012 November 6, 2018 2024 →
Turnout77.43% Increase
 
Nominee John Barrasso Gary Trauner
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 136,210 61,227
Percentage 66.96% 30.10%
Barrasso:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Trauner:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
     No votes
U.S. senator before election

John Barrasso
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

John Barrasso
Republican

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The 2018 United States Senate election in Wyoming took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Wyoming. The primary election took place August 21, 2018.[1] Republican John Barrasso won re-election with 67% percent of the vote, the lowest percentage of his four U.S. Senate campaigns and the closest a Democrat has come to winning a seat since the 1996 election, and the first time since that election in which Democrats managed to even win counties in the state, those being Teton and Albany, and the first time that the Democratic candidate won any counties for this seat since 1994. Trauner was the first Democrat to win Teton county in a Senate contest since 1940, and the first ever losing Democrat to do so.

Background

In 2012, incumbent Republican John Barrasso was re-elected with 76% of the vote. Heavily rural, Wyoming has the smallest population of any state and is considered the most Republican state in the nation. It has not elected a Democratic Senate candidate since 1970. In 2008, Republican presidential nominee John McCain carried the state with 64% of the vote. Republican Mitt Romney won it in 2012 with 68% of the vote, and Republican Donald Trump won it in 2016 with 67% of the vote.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Declared

Declined

Withdrawn

  • Charlie Hardy, Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in 2014 and candidate for U.S. House of Representatives in 2016[3] (endorsed Dave Dodson)

Results

Results by county:
  Barrasso
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Dodson
  •   50–60%
Republican primary results[8]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican John Barrasso (incumbent) 74,292 64.76%
Republican Dave Dodson 32,647 28.46%
Republican John Holtz 2,981 2.60%
Republican Charlie Hardy (withdrawn) 2,377 2.07%
Republican Roque "Rocky" De La Fuente 1,280 1.16%
Republican Anthony Van Risseghem 870 0.7%
Write-in 267 0.23%
Total votes 114,714 100%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

Declined

Results

Results by county:
  Trauner
  •   90–100%
Democratic primary results[8]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Gary Trauner 17,562 98.90%
Write-in 195 1.10%
Total votes 17,757 100%

Independents

Candidates

Withdrew

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Safe R October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[14] Safe R November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe R November 5, 2018
Fox News[16][a] Likely R November 5, 2018
CNN[17] Safe R November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[18] Safe R November 5, 2018

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		John
Barrasso (R) 		Gary
Trauner (D) 		Joseph
Porambo (L) 		Undecided
Change Research[19] November 2–4, 2018 858 – 60% 31% 6% –

Endorsements

John Barrasso (R)

Executive branch officials

Gary Trauner (D)

Organizations

Results

United States Senate election in Wyoming, 2018[22]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican John Barrasso (incumbent) 136,210 66.96% −8.70%
Democratic Gary Trauner 61,227 30.10% +8.45%
Libertarian Joseph Porambo 5,658 2.78% N/A
Write-in 325 0.16% -0.01%
Total votes 203,420 100% N/A
Republican hold

By county

Vote Break Down by County[23]
John Barrasso
Republican 		Gary Trauner
Democrat 		Joseph Porambo
Libertarian 		Write-Ins Total
County Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes
Albany 6,366 44.15% 7,576 52.54% 442 3.07% 35 0.24% 14,419
Big Horn 3,564 82.56% 639 14.80% 102 2.36% 12 0.28% 4,317
Campbell 11,020 84.44% 1,628 12.47% 387 2.97% 16 0.12% 13,051
Carbon 3,673 70.72% 1,359 26.16% 156 3.00% 6 0.12% 5,194
Converse 3,959 79.87% 834 16.82% 153 3.09% 11 0.22% 4,957
Crook 2,642 85.56% 335 10.84% 110 3.56% 1 0.03% 3,089
Fremont 9,262 64.34% 4,734 32.89% 380 2.64% 19 0.13% 14,395
Goshen 3,658 76.24% 1,020 21.26% 115 2.40% 5 0.10% 4,798
Hot Springs 1,742 77.15% 455 20.15% 58 2.57% 3 0.13% 2,258
Johnson 3,085 79.33% 722 18.57% 79 2.03% 3 0.08% 3,889
Laramie 19,473 59.72% 12,167 37.31% 907 2.78% 61 0.19% 32,608
Lincoln 5,846 81.23% 1,152 16.01% 187 2.60% 12 0.16% 7,197
Natrona 16,359 66.87% 7,285 29.78% 778 3.18% 42 0.17% 24,464
Niobrara 980 84.56% 144 12.42% 32 2.76% 3 0.26% 1,159
Park 8,938 75.57% 2,589 21.89% 276 2.33% 24 0.20% 11,827
Platte 2,850 75.30% 801 21.16% 131 3.46% 3 0.08% 3,785
Sheridan 8,318 70.46% 3,205 27.15% 261 2.21% 21 0.18% 11,805
Sublette 2,653 77.87% 668 19.61% 84 2.47% 2 0.06% 3,407
Sweetwater 8,577 66.11% 3,943 30.39% 430 3.31% 23 0.18% 12,973
Teton 3,833 32.62% 7,691 65.46% 220 1.87% 6 0.05% 11,750
Uinta 4,713 75.05% 1,371 21.83% 188 2.99% 8 0.13% 6,280
Washakie 2,423 77.91% 588 18.91% 93 2.99% 6 0.19% 3,110
Weston 2,275 84.64% 321 11.94% 89 3.31% 3 0.11% 2,688

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Notes

  1. ^ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

References

  1. ^ "2018 Key Election Dates" (PDF). Wyoming Secretary of State.
  2. ^ "Barrasso says he's ready to take on possible primary challenges". wyomingnews.com. October 11, 2017. Retrieved April 4, 2018.
  3. ^ a b c d e "2018 Primary Election Candidate Roster" (PDF). Wyoming Secretary of State. Retrieved June 1, 2018.
  4. ^ "Former Presidential Candidate Files In Wyoming U.S. Senate Race". KGAB AM 650. May 25, 2018. Retrieved August 26, 2018.
  5. ^ Costa, Robert (October 9, 2017). "GOP megadonor Foster Friess exploring a run for U.S. Senate in Wyoming". The Washington Post. Retrieved October 9, 2017.
  6. ^ "GOP megadonor Friess to run for Wyoming governor". Politico. April 20, 2018. Retrieved April 20, 2018.
  7. ^ Peters, Jeremy W.; Haberman, Maggie; Thrush, Glenn (October 8, 2017). "Erik Prince, Blackwater Founder, Weighs Primary Challenge to Wyoming Republican". The New York Times. Retrieved October 9, 2017.
  8. ^ a b Statewide Candidates Official Summary
  9. ^ "Democrat Gary Trauner Announces Bid for Wyoming U.S. Senate". U.S. News & World Report. December 8, 2017. Retrieved December 8, 2017.
  10. ^ Funk, Joel (August 27, 2017). "Former Wyoming lawmaker Mary Throne announces bid for governor". Wyoming Tribune Eagle. Retrieved August 27, 2017.
  11. ^ Greenwald, Joy (August 25, 2017). "Throne Launches Campaign for Wyoming Governor". KGAB. Retrieved August 27, 2017.
  12. ^ "Wealthy independent enters Wyoming US Senate race". usnews.com. Retrieved August 26, 2018.
  13. ^ "2018 Senate Race Ratings for October 26, 2018". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
  14. ^ "2018 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
  15. ^ "2018 Crystal Ball Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 4, 2018.
  16. ^ "2018 Senate Power Rankings". Fox News. Retrieved July 10, 2018.
  17. ^ "Key Races: Senate". Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  18. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2018". Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  19. ^ Change Research
  20. ^ Arno Rosenfeld (October 25, 2017). "Trump is backing Barrasso ahead of a reelection campaign. Will that matter?". trib.com. Retrieved August 26, 2018.
  21. ^ "End Citizens United Endorses Gary Trauner for U.S. Senate in Wyoming". End Citizens United. March 1, 2018. Retrieved March 14, 2018.
  22. ^ "2018 General Election Results" (PDF). Wyoming State Canvassing Board.
  23. ^ "Statewide Candidates Official Summary - Wyoming General Election - November 6, 2018" (PDF). Wyoming Secretary of State.

Official campaign websites