List of Storm Prediction Center extremely critical days

Progression of a well-anticipated extremely critical event across the Central Plains on March 6, 2017. This event produced wildfires that burned 1,200,000 acres of land, and killed seven people.

An extremely critical fire weather event is the greatest threat level issued by the NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) for wildfire events in the United States. On the scale from one to three, an extremely critical is a level three; thus, these outlooks are issued only when forecasters at the SPC are confident of extremely dangerous wildfire conditions on a given day, and are typically reserved for the most extreme events. They are only issued for either Day 2 (with the event occurring the following day) or for Day 1 (on the day of the event). In contrast with high risk outlooks for severe weather outbreaks, extremely critical outlooks are commonly issued for Day 2. This is due to the fact that the conditions required for volatile wildfire spread are easier to predict well in advance than the conditions required for a major tornado outbreak or derecho. Similar to high risk outlooks, extremely critical outlooks also cannot be issued for Day 3 of the outlook period.[1][2]

Extremely critical days

2000–2009

Storm Prediction Center Extremely Critical Fire Weather Events – 2000–2009[nb 1]
Date Year Region Acres burned Fatalities Outlook Notes
May 11 2000 Arizona, New Mexico[3] 43,000[nb 2] 0 Cerro Grande Fire[4]
May 15 2000 Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico[5] 43,000[nb 2] 0 Cerro Grande Fire[4]
May 16 2000 Wyoming, Utah, Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma[6] 43,000[nb 2] 0 Cerro Grande Fire[4]
May 17 2000 Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico, Nebraska, Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma[7] 43,000[nb 2] 0 Cerro Grande Fire[4]
May 24 2000 Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, Florida[8] 0 One of only two extremely critical areas issued east of the Mississippi River, the other was issued on May 12, 2008[citation needed]
June 7 2000 Nevada, Arizona, Utah[9] 0
June 8 2000 Nevada, Arizona, Utah[10] 0
June 19 2000 Wyoming, Colorado, Utah[11] 0
July 23 2000 Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, Montana, Idaho[12] 2,200,000[nb 3] 0 Idaho-Montana wildfires of Summer 2000[13]
July 31 2000 Washington, Oregon, Montana, Idaho[14] 2,200,000[nb 3] 0 Idaho-Montana wildfires of Summer 2000[13]
August 1 2000 Wyoming, Montana, Idaho[15] 2,200,000[nb 3] 0 Idaho-Montana wildfires of Summer 2000[13]
August 3 2000 California, Oregon, Nevada, Wyoming, Montana, Idaho[16] 2,200,000[nb 3] 0 Idaho-Montana wildfires of Summer 2000[13]
August 11 2000 Wyoming, Montana, Idaho[17] 2,200,000[nb 3] 0 Idaho-Montana wildfires of Summer 2000[13]
August 26 2000 Wyoming, Montana, Idaho[18] 2,200,000[nb 3] 0 Idaho-Montana wildfires of Summer 2000[13]
August 27 2000 Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, South Dakota[19] 2,200,000[nb 3] 0 Idaho-Montana wildfires of Summer 2000[13]
August 29 2000 Wyoming, Montana, Idaho[20] 2,200,000[nb 3] 0 Idaho-Montana wildfires of Summer 2000[13]
September 19 2000 South Central U.S.[21] 0
September 21 2000 New Mexico, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas[22] 0
October 21 2000 California[23] 0
October 22 2000 California[24] 0
November 7 2000 California[25] 0
December 17 2000 California[26] 0
December 18 2000 California[27] 0
December 25 2000 California[28] 0
January 2 2001 California[29] 0
January 3 2001 California[30] 10,353 0 Viejas Fire[31]
April 10 2001 New Mexico, Texas[32] 0
April 22 2001 New Mexico, Texas[33] 0
July 28 2001 Idaho, Wyoming[34][35] 4,600[nb 2] 0 Green Knoll Fire[36]
September 5 2001 Eastern Great Basin region[37] 14,288 0 Darby Fire[38]
April 20 2002 New Mexico, Texas[39] 0
May 1 2002 New Mexico, Texas[40] 0
May 7 2002 Central Rocky Mountains region[41] 0
June 3 2002 New Mexico, Arizona, Colorado[42] 0
June 8 2002 Western U.S.[43] 138,114[nb 2] 0 Hayman Fire[44]
June 9 2002 Western U.S.[45] 138,114[nb 2] 0 Hayman Fire[44]
September 15 2002 Nevada[46] 0
January 6 2003 California[47] 900 0 Pacific Fire[31]
April 2 2003 Arizona, Colorado, Utah[48] 0
May 3 2003 Arizona, New Mexico[49] 0
June 23 2003 Colorado, New Mexico, Utah[50] 84,750[nb 2] 0 Aspen Fire[51]
May 10 2004 Utah[52] 0
May 11 2004 Southwestern U.S.[53] 0
March 29 2005 New Mexico, Texas[54] 0
November 18 2005 California[55] 4,000 0 School Canyon Fire[56]
November 27 2005 New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas[57] 9,600[nb 2] 0 Velma Fire[58]
January 1 2006 New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas[59] 303,570 2[60] Texas-Oklahoma wildfires of 2005–06[61]
January 3 2006 Central U.S.[62] 0 Texas-Oklahoma wildfires of 2005–06
January 7 2006 New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas[63] 0 Texas-Oklahoma wildfires of 2005–06
January 8 2006 Southern U.S.[64] 0 Texas-Oklahoma wildfires of 2005–06
January 12 2006 Oklahoma, Texas[65] 39,173[61] 0 Texas-Oklahoma wildfires of 2005–06
January 14 2006 Oklahoma, Texas[66] 0 Texas-Oklahoma wildfires of 2005–06
January 15 2006 Oklahoma, Texas[67] 0 Texas-Oklahoma wildfires of 2005–06
January 23 2006 California[68] 0
February 7 2006 California[69] >1,200[nb 2] 0 Orange County Fire[70]
February 8 2006 California[71] >1,200[nb 2] 0 Orange County Fire[70]
March 8 2006 New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas[72] 0
March 10 2006 Central U.S.[73] 0
March 11 2006 New Mexico, Texas[74] 0
March 12 2006 Central U.S.[75] 1,102,044[61][nb 2] 12[76] Texas-Oklahoma wildfires of 2005–06
April 6 2006 New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas[77] 119,846[61] 0 Texas-Oklahoma wildfires of 2005–06
April 15 2006 Central U.S.[78] 23,135[61] 0 Texas-Oklahoma wildfires of 2005–06
May 27 2006 Southwestern U.S.[79] 0
June 14 2006 Southwestern U.S.[80] 4,270[nb 2] 0 June 2006 Colorado wildfires[81]
June 15 2006 Arizona, New Mexico[82] 0
August 29 2006 Northwestern U.S.[83] 144,876[nb 2] 0 Tripod Complex, Tatoosh Complex, and Cedar Creek fires[84]
August 30 2006 Idaho, Montana, Wyoming[85] 76,651[nb 2] 0 Middle Fork Complex, Trail Creek, Potato, and Zane fires[86]
November 15 2006 Texas[87] 0
January 8 2007 California[88] 20 0 Malibu Fire[31]
February 24 2007 Texas[89] 0
February 28 2007 New Mexico, Texas[90] 0
June 5 2007 Arizona, Nevada, Utah[91] 0
June 6 2007 Arizona, New Mexico[92] 0
July 18 2007 Nevada[93] 652,016[nb 2] 0 Murphy Complex Fire[94]
October 21 2007 California[95] 33,195 1[96] 2007 California wildfires[97]
October 22 2007 California[98] 234,466 0 2007 California wildfires[97]
October 23 2007 California[99][100] 146,903 2[96] 2007 California wildfires[97]
January 29 2008 Texas[101] 37,000[nb 2] 0 2008 Texas wildfires[102]
January 31 2008 Texas[103] 37,000[nb 2] 0 2008 Texas wildfires[102]
February 25 2008 Texas[104] 377,568 1 2008 Texas wildfires[105]
March 14 2008 Arizona, New Mexico, Texas[106] 263,375 0 2008 Texas wildfires[105]
March 16 2008 New Mexico, Texas[107] 0 2008 Texas wildfires
March 18 2008 Texas[108] 0 2008 Texas wildfires
March 20 2008 Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas[109] 5,000 0 2008 Texas wildfires[110]
April 3 2008 New Mexico, Texas[111] 0 2008 Texas wildfires
April 9 2008 New Mexico, Texas[112] 0 2008 Texas wildfires
April 10 2008 Arizona, New Mexico, Texas[113] 0 2008 Texas wildfires
April 16 2008 New Mexico, Texas[114] 0 2008 Texas wildfires
April 30 2008 Arizona, New Mexico, Texas[115] 2,000 0 2008 Texas wildfires and X Fire[116]
May 1 2008 New Mexico, Texas[117] 0 2008 Texas wildfires
May 12 2008 Florida, Southwestern U.S.[118] 0 2008 Texas wildfires; one of only two extremely critical areas issued east of the Mississippi River, the other was issued on May 24, 2000[citation needed]
May 13 2008 New Mexico, Texas[119] 0 2008 Texas wildfires
May 21 2008 Arizona, New Mexico[120] 0
June 4 2008 Arizona, New Mexico[121] 0
June 5 2008 New Mexico, Texas[122] 0 2008 Texas wildfires
June 11 2008 New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas[123] 0 2008 Texas wildfires
February 10 2009 Texas[124] 0
February 17 2009 Central U.S.[125] 0
March 5 2009 Central U.S.[126] 0
March 23 2009 Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas[127] 0
March 26 2009 Arizona, New Mexico, Texas[128] 0
April 1 2009 New Mexico, Texas[129] 0
April 9 2009 New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas[130] 235,792 4[131] April 2009 Texas wildfires[105][131]
June 6 2009 Arizona, New Mexico[132] 0
August 6 2009 Arizona, Nevada, Utah[133] 0
August 7 2009 Southwestern U.S.[134] 0

2010–2019

Storm Prediction Center Extremely Critical Fire Weather Events – 2010–2019[nb 1]
Date Year Region Acres burned Fatalities Outlook Notes
March 26 2010 New Mexico, Texas[135] 0
April 1 2010 Central U.S.[136] 0
April 29 2010 New Mexico, Texas[137] 0
May 10 2010 New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas[138] 0
February 27 2011 New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas[139] 262,434[105] 0 2011 Texas wildfires
March 7 2011 New Mexico, Texas[140] 0 2011 Texas wildfires
March 8 2011 Texas[141] 0 2011 Texas wildfires
March 21 2011 Southwestern and Central U.S.[142] 0 2011 Texas wildfires
March 22 2011 Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas[143] 12,556[105] 0 2011 Texas wildfires
April 3 2011 Southwestern and Central U.S.[144] 19,883[105] 0 2011 Texas wildfires
April 9 2011 Central U.S[145] 582,615 1 2011 Texas wildfires[105]
April 10 2011 Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas[146] 0 2011 Texas wildfires
April 14 2011 New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas[147] 85,287[105] 0 2011 Texas wildfires
April 15 2011 Oklahoma, Texas[148] 50,321 1 2011 Texas wildfires[105]
April 26 2011 New Mexico, Texas[149] 50,235[105] 0 2011 Texas wildfires
April 29 2011 New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas[150] 0 2011 Texas wildfires
May 9 2011 Southwestern and Central U.S.[151] 0 2011 Texas wildfires
May 24 2011 New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas[152] 127,732[105] 0 2011 Texas wildfires
May 29 2011 New Mexico, Texas[153] 0 2011 Texas wildfires
May 30 2011 Central U.S.[154] 0 2011 Texas wildfires
June 6 2011 Arizona[155] 538,049[nb 2] 0 Wallow Fire[156]
June 19 2011 Southwestern U.S.[157] 538,049+[nb 2] 0 2011 Texas wildfires and Wallow Fire
June 29 2011 Nevada[158] 156,293[nb 2] 0 Las Conchas Fire[159]
November 2 2011 California[160] 0
March 1 2012 New Mexico[161] 0
March 7 2012 New Mexico[162] 0
March 18 2012 Nebraska, South Dakota[163] 0
March 26 2012 Colorado, Nebraska, Wyoming[164] 4,140 3 Lower North Fork Fire[165]
May 23 2012 Arizona, New Mexico[166] 297,845[nb 2] 0 Whitewater-Baldy Complex Fire[167]
May 26 2012 New Mexico[168] 297,845[nb 2] 0 Whitewater-Baldy Complex Fire[167]
February 25 2013 Texas[169] 0
December 29 2013 California[170] 0
April 3 2014 New Mexico, Texas[171] 0
April 26 2014 Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas[172] 0
May 6 2014 Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas[173] 0
May 7 2014 Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas[174] 0
May 11 2014 Oklahoma, Texas[175] 2,583 0 Double Diamond Fire[176]
June 14 2014 Arizona, New Mexico[177] 0
June 16 2014 Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah[178] 0
June 17 2014 Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah[179] 14,712[nb 2] 0 Assayii Lake Fire[180]
April 8 2015 Colorado, New Mexico, Texas[181] 0
April 14 2015 South Dakota[182] 0
February 18 2016 Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas[183] 40,000 0 February 2016 Texas-Oklahoma wildfires[184]
March 22 2016 Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas[185] 367,620[nb 2] 0 Anderson Creek Fire[186]
March 23 2016 New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas[187] 367,620[nb 2] 0 Anderson Creek Fire[186]
April 5 2016 Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas[188] 55,308 0 350 Complex Fire[189]
November 17 2016 Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas[190] 0
February 23 2017 Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas[191] 1,812[nb 2] 0 2 Mile Lane, 96, and 141st fires[192]
February 28 2017 New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas[193] 10,700 0 February 2017 Texas wildfires[194]
March 6 2017 Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas[195] 1,200,000 7[196] March 2017 Great Plains wildfires[197]
March 23 2017 Colorado, New Mexico, Texas[198] 38,500 0 Rankin Ranch Road and Green Ranch fires[199][200]
March 31 2017 New Mexico, Texas[201] 0
December 4 2017 California[202] 141,531[nb 2] 0 December 2017 Southern California wildfires[203][204]
December 5 2017 California[205] 141,531[nb 2] 0 December 2017 Southern California wildfires[203][204]
December 6 2017 California[206] 141,531[nb 2] 1[207] December 2017 Southern California wildfires[203][204]
December 7 2017 California[208] 141,531[nb 2] 0 December 2017 Southern California wildfires[203][204]
March 4 2018 New Mexico, Colorado, Texas, Oklahoma[209] 575 0 Forest Ridge Fire[210] and Coyote Canyon Fire[211]
March 18 2018 New Mexico, Texas[212] 9,250 0 March 2018 Texas-Oklahoma wildfires[213]
March 23 2018 New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado[214] 3,450 0 March 2018 Texas-Oklahoma wildfires[215]
April 12 2018 New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado[216] 12,700 1[217] April 2018 Great Plains wildfires, including the Rhea Fire.[218][219][220]
April 13 2018 New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma[221] 261,700 1[222] April 2018 Great Plains wildfires[217][223][224] – The first day to be given a "historically critical" designation on the Red Flag Threat Index (RFTI).[nb 4][225]
April 17 2018 New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma[226] 468,365[nb 2] 0 April 2018 Great Plains wildfires – Outlook included enhanced warning: "Dangerous, life-threatening fire weather conditions are likely". PDS Red Flag Warning #709 was issued for parts of New Mexico and Texas at 2005Z the day before.[227] Forecasters indicated that the potential for the rapid spread of wildfires was at its highest level in more than ten years.[228] This was only the second day on record to be given the "historically critical" designation on the Red Flag Threat Index (RFTI).[225]
April 19 2018 Arizona, New Mexico[229] 125+ 0 April 2018 Arizona-New Mexico wildfires[230][231]
September 15 2018 Utah, Nevada[232] 86,107[nb 2] 0 Pole Creek and Bald Mountain wildfires[233]
October 15 2018 California[234] 0
November 8 2018 California[235] 256,316[nb 2] 85[nb 5][236] Woolsey, Hill, Camp, and Nurse wildfires;[237][238] Deadliest extremely critical day on record.[nb 6][citation needed]
November 9 2018 California[239] 256,316[nb 2] 2[240] Woolsey, Hill, Camp, and Nurse wildfires[237][238]
November 11 2018 California[241] 256,316[nb 2] 0 Woolsey, Hill, Camp, and Nurse wildfires[237][238]
November 12 2018 California[242] 256,316[nb 2] 0 Woolsey, Hill, Camp, and Nurse wildfires[237][238]
November 13 2018 California[243] 256,316[nb 2] 1[244] Woolsey, Hill, Camp, and Nurse wildfires[237][238]
April 10 2019 New Mexico, Texas[245] 1,800 0 267 Fire[246]
October 9 2019 California[247] 14,449[nb 2] 0 Early October 2019 California wildfires[248][249]
October 10 2019 California[250] 14,449[nb 2] 3[251] Early October 2019 California wildfires[248][249]
October 11 2019 California[252] 14,449[nb 2] 0 Early October 2019 California wildfires[248][249]
October 24 2019 California[253] 98,366[nb 2] 0 Late October 2019 California wildfires[249]
October 25 2019 California[254] 98,366[nb 2] 0 Late October 2019 California wildfires[249]
October 27 2019 California[255] 98,366[nb 2] 0 Late October 2019 California wildfires[249]
October 28 2019 California[256] 98,366[nb 2] 0 Late October 2019 California wildfires[249]
October 29 2019 California[257] 98,366[nb 2] 0 Late October 2019 California wildfires[249]
October 30 2019 California[258] 98,366[nb 2] 0 Late October 2019 California wildfires[249]
October 31 2019 California[259] 98,366[nb 2] 0 Late October 2019 California wildfires[249] – First and only occurrence of five consecutive extremely critical days[citation needed]

2020–present

Storm Prediction Center Extremely Critical Fire Weather Events – 2020–2024[nb 1]
Date Year Region Acres burned Fatalities Outlook Notes
June 7 2020 Colorado, New Mexico[260] 2,083+[nb 2] 0 Wilson Crossing, Tadpole, and Bent's Fort fires[261][262][263]
September 2 2020 Montana[264] 100,000+ 0 Huff, Bobcat, and Snider fires[265]
September 7 2020 Oregon, Washington[266] 1,000,000+[nb 2] 0 September 2020 Labor Day wildfires – Deputy Fire Staff for Northwest Oregon Fire Management Eric Johnson stated that "the fire weather forecasted is extremely rare and occurs only a few times a century."[267]
September 8 2020 Oregon, Washington[268] 1,000,000+[nb 2] 10[269] September 2020 Labor Day wildfires
October 25 2020 California[270] 413 0 Olinda, Dersch, and Point fires[271]
October 26 2020 California[272] 26,430 0 Silverado and Blue Ridge fires[271]
December 3 2020 California[273] 6,430+ 0 Bond and Willow fires[274][275]
June 10 2021 Colorado, Utah[276] 31 0 Foxton Fire[277]
December 15 2021 Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas[278] 163,000+ 2[279] 2021 Kansas wildfire outbreak – includes the Four County, North 207, Parker Creek, and Cobb fires[280]
March 17 2022 Texas[281] 45,000+ 0 Eastland Complex Fire[282]
March 29 2022 Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas[283] 33,000+[nb 2] 0 Crittenberg Complex Fire[284]
April 6 2022 Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas[285] 57,737+[nb 2] 0 Gosper/Furnas County, Beaver River, and Sand Creek fires[286][287][288]
April 7 2022 Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas[289] 57,737+[nb 2] 1[286] Gosper/Furnas County, Beaver River, and Sand Creek fires[286][287][288]
April 12 2022 Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas[290] 6,195+[nb 2] 2[291] McBride Fire[292]
April 22 2022 Colorado, New Mexico[293] 160,000+[nb 2] 0 April-May 2022 New Mexico wildfires[294]
April 29 2022 Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma[295] 160,000+[nb 2] 0 April-May 2022 New Mexico wildfires[294]
May 8 2022 Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas[296] 160,000+[nb 2] 0 April-May 2022 New Mexico wildfires[294]
May 9 2022 New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas[297] 160,000+[nb 2] 0 April-May 2022 New Mexico wildfires[294]
September 7 2022 Montana[298] 1,000+ 0 Government, Billiard, and Bull Gin Complex fires[299]
April 4 2023 Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, New Mexico[300] 1,550 0 Route 66 Fire[301]
March 13 2024 Oklahoma, Texas[302] 1,000,000+[nb 2] 0 Smokehouse Creek Fire[303]
April 6 2024 Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma[304] 5,000 0 57 Fire[305]
May 25 2024 New Mexico[306] 2,964 0 Blue 2 Fire[307]
November 6 2024 California[308] 1,000 [to be determined] Mountain Fire[309]

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b c All values include events that took place outside of the extremely critical area(s). Fatality totals only include direct fire-related deaths that occurred on the respective extremely critical days.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj ak al am an ao ap aq ar as at au av aw ax ay az ba bb bc bd be bf bg bh Number of acres burned for entire event which occurred over a multi-day period.
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h Approximate number of acres burned for entire multi-event period spanning June to September 2000.
  4. ^ The Red Flag Threat Index (RFTI) is a fire weather index that was developed in 2011, with values from 0-10 that rates the climatological rarity of combined relative humidity and wind combinations. Historically Critical values of 9 or 10 can only be reached when either relative humidity or wind speed exceed a ten year observational data set.
  5. ^ All 85 fatalities were caused by the Camp Fire.
  6. ^ The 101 fatalities associated with the wildfires in Hawaii on August 8, 2023 are excluded, due to the fact that only critical fire conditions were forecasted for that day.

References

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