Claudia Sahm

Claudia Sahm
Born
Claudia Foster
EducationDenison University (BA)
University of Michigan (MA, PhD)
Known forSahm rule
Children2
Scientific career
InstitutionsBrookings Institution
Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Washington Center for Equitable Growth
WebsiteOfficial website

Claudia Rae Sahm (née Foster) is an American economist, currently serving as Chief Economist for New Century Advisors.[1] She is also the founder of Sahm Consulting.[2] Claudia was formerly director of macroeconomic policy at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth,[3] and a Section Chief at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, where she worked in various capacities from 2007 to 2019.[4] Sahm specializes in macroeconomics and household finance.[5] She is best known for the development of the Sahm rule, a Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) indicator for identifying recessions in real-time.[6][7]

Education and career

In 1998, Sahm received a bachelor's degree in economics from Denison University, where she also studied political science and German.[4] From 1998 to 1999, Sahm was a Fulbright Scholar at the Technical University of Dresden, where she studied economic transitions in post-socialist countries.[5] From 1999 to 2001, Sahm worked at the Brookings Institution as a research assistant.[5] Sahm began her PhD at the University of Michigan in 2001, guided by Matthew D. Shapiro and Miles Spencer Kimball, completing her thesis Risk Tolerance and Asset Allocation in 2007.[8]

In 2007, Sahm began working at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors as an economist, where her work was focused on examining consumer spending. Her first position was studying the impact of tax rebates.[9] In 2013 she was promoted to Senior Economist, and in 2015 to Principal Economist, at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.[4]

Sahm was a Senior Economist at the Council of Economic Advisers for the Obama administration, where she worked on macroeconomic developments and housing policy from 2015 to 2016.[10] She studied the impact of unusual weather on economic data.[11] She showed that people were less willing to take economic risks as they age.[12][13]

In September 2017 Sahm was promoted to Section Chief of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors in the Division of Consumer and Community Affairs.[4] From October 2019 to September 2020, she was director of macroeconomic policy at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth.[14] In September 2020, Sahm joined Bloomberg Opinion as a contributor[15] and in October 2020, she joined The New York Times as a Contributing Opinion Writer.[16]

As of 2022, Sahm is a senior fellow leading Macroeconomic Research at the Jain Family Institute.[17] She is also a member of the National Bureau of Economic Research Conference on Research in Income and Wealth.[18]

In April 2024, Sahm accepted the role of Chief Economist at New Century Advisors.[19]

Research

Sahm conducts research in macroeconomics with a focus on business cycles, fiscal stimulus and consumer behavior.

Her research has appeared in numerous FEDS notes,[20] books, and major academic journals.[21][22][23]

Outside the academic audience Sahm is known for the Sahm rule, also known as the "Sahm Recession Indicator":[24]

One reliable early signal of recession is the Sahm Rule: A downturn is probably occurring if the three-month average of the unemployment rate has risen by at least 0.5 percentage point above its low point in the previous 12 months. This rule [...] has signaled every recession since 1970 with virtually no false positives.[25]

The Sahm rule tracks the unemployment rate to detect upcoming and current recessions.[26][27]

Selected publications

  • Bosworth, Barry; Burtless, Gary; Sahm, Claudia (2004). "Distributional Impact of Social Security Reform". In Onofri, Paolo (ed.). The Economics of an Ageing Population: Macroeconomic Issues. Cheltenham, UK and Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar Publications. pp. 193–226. doi:10.4337/9781845421601.00014. ISBN 978-1-843-76779-4. OCLC 5149471599.
  • Kimball, Miles S; Sahm, Claudia R; Shapiro, Matthew D (January 2012). "Imputing Risk Tolerance From Survey Responses" (PDF). Journal of the American Statistical Association. 103 (483): 1028–1038. doi:10.1198/016214508000000139. PMC 2856097. PMID 20407599.
  • Sahm, Claudia R. (2007). Risk Tolerance and Asset Allocation (PDF) (PhD). University of Michigan. OCLC 894382254.
  • Kimball, Miles S; Sahm, Claudia R; Shapiro, Matthew D (April 2009). "Risk Preferences in the PSID: Individual Imputations and Family Covariation" (PDF). American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings. 99 (2): 363–368. doi:10.1257/aer.99.2.363. PMC 2995549. PMID 21132079.
  • Larrimore, Jeff; Durante, Alex; Kreiss, Kimberly; Merry, Ellen; Park, Christina; Sahm, Claudia (22 May 2018). "Shedding Light on Our Economic and Financial Lives". FEDS Notes. 2018 (2192). doi:10.17016/2380-7172.2192.
  • Aladangady, Aditya; Aron-Dine, Shifrah; Cashin, David; Dunn, Wendy; Feiveson, Laura; Lengermann, Paul; Richard, Katherine; Sahm, Claudia (21 June 2018). "High-frequency Spending Responses to the Earned Income Tax Credit". FEDS Notes. 2018 (2199). doi:10.17016/2380-7172.2199.

Other work

Sahm maintains the economics blog MacroMom and economics newsletter Stay-At-Home Macro.[28][29][30]

Sahm campaigns for more diversity in economics.[31][32] She petitioned the American Economic Association to remove sexist comments on the website Economics Job Market Rumors (EJMR).[33] She is also known for her critiques of the culture of the economics profession, citing many specific examples of bullying and harassment she experienced, observed, or had reported to her by others, often directed at female and minority economists.[34][35]

Personal life

Sahm was married to Patrick Sahm, whom she met at Denison University, and with whom she has two children.[5][36] She married health economist Colin Baker in 2020.[37]

Awards

References

  1. ^ Sahm, Claudia. "Claudia Sahm". Linkedin. Retrieved 28 May 2024.
  2. ^ Sahm, Claudia. "Sahm Consulting". Claudia Sahm. Retrieved 28 May 2024.
  3. ^ "Equitable Growth Announces Claudia Sahm as New Director of Macroeconomic Policy". Equitable Growth. Retrieved 2019-12-02.
  4. ^ a b c d e "Meet the Economists: Claudia R. Sahm". Federal Reserve Board of Governors. 13 August 2018. Archived from the original on August 18, 2019.
  5. ^ a b c d "Who Will Lead?: Claudia Foster Sahm '98". Denison Magazine. Denison University. Archived from the original on 5 October 2018. Retrieved 7 October 2018.
  6. ^ Schneider, Howard (2019-10-04). "'Sahm Rule' enters Fed lexicon as fast, real-time recession flag". Reuters. Retrieved 2020-12-21.
  7. ^ "Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator". fred.stlouisfed.org. 2020-12-04. Retrieved 2020-12-21.
  8. ^ Sahm, Claudia R. (2007). Risk Tolerance and Asset Allocation (PDF) (PhD). University of Michigan. OCLC 894382254.
  9. ^ Ip, Greg (August 26, 2010). The Little Book of Economics: How the Economy Works in the Real World. Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons. ISBN 9780470929407.
  10. ^ "Claudia Sahm '98 Headliner at Women in Economics Forum". denison.edu. Granville, Ohio: Denison University. Retrieved October 4, 2018.
  11. ^ Boldin, Michael; Wright, Jonathan H. (September 10, 2015). "Weather adjusting economic data". Brookings. Retrieved October 4, 2018.
  12. ^ Ozimek, Adam (August 4, 2016). "The Five Biggest Open Economics Questions To Me". Forbes. Retrieved October 4, 2018.
  13. ^ Sahm, Claudia R. (December 2012). "How Much Does Risk Tolerance Change?". Quarterly Journal of Finance. 02 (4): 1250020. doi:10.1142/s2010139212500206. ISSN 2010-1392. PMC 4276321. PMID 25544881.
  14. ^ Saraiva, Catarina (September 24, 2020). "Economist Claudia Sahm Leaves Center for Equitable Growth". Bloomberg. Retrieved October 15, 2020.
  15. ^ Sahm, Claudia. "hey, look who's a @bloomberg Opinion contributor now: me". Twitter. Archived from the original on 2020-09-11. Retrieved December 8, 2020.
  16. ^ "The New York Times - Claudia Sahm". www.nytimes.com. Retrieved 2020-12-22.
  17. ^ Institute, Jain Family (14 January 2022). "JFI launches new macroeconomic research initiative, led by Claudia Sahm". Jain Family Institute. Retrieved 2022-01-14.
  18. ^ "CRIW - Members". NBER. Retrieved 2021-09-30.
  19. ^ Sahm, Claudia. "Claudia Sahm's Post". Linkedin. Retrieved 28 May 2024.
  20. ^ "FRB: Search Results". www.fedsearch.org. Retrieved July 30, 2020.
  21. ^ Slemrod, Joel; Shapiro, Matthew D.; Sahm, Claudia R. (April 2012). "Check in the Mail or More in the Paycheck: Does the Effectiveness of Fiscal Stimulus Depend on How It Is Delivered?". American Economic Journal. 4 (3): 216–250. doi:10.1257/pol.4.3.216. ISSN 1945-7731. PMC 3747574. PMID 23970951.
  22. ^ Kimball, Miles S.; Sahm, Claudia R.; Shapiro, Matthew D. (September 1, 2008). "Imputing Risk Tolerance From Survey Responses". Journal of the American Statistical Association. 103 (483): 1028–1038. doi:10.1198/016214508000000139. ISSN 0162-1459. PMC 2856097. PMID 20407599.
  23. ^ Shapiro, Matthew D.; Sahm, Claudia R.; Kimball, Miles S. (May 2009). "Risk Preferences in the PSID: Individual Imputations and Family Covariation". American Economic Review. 99 (2): 363–368. doi:10.1257/aer.99.2.363. ISSN 0002-8282. PMC 2995549. PMID 21132079.
  24. ^ "How to spot a recession". The Economist. June 11, 2019. Retrieved September 14, 2019.
  25. ^ Furman, Jason. "Opinion | Launch a Pre-Emptive Strike Against Recession". Wall Street Journal. Retrieved September 14, 2019.
  26. ^ "Direct Stimulus Payments to Individuals | The Hamilton Project". www.hamiltonproject.org. Retrieved 2019-09-14.
  27. ^ "Sahm Rule is a poor predictor of recessions". Financial Times. September 13, 2019.
  28. ^ Sahm, Claudia. "MacroMom". MacroMom Blog. Retrieved 4 October 2018.
  29. ^ Sahm, Claudia. "Stay-At-Home Macro". stayathomemacro.substack.com. Retrieved 2023-01-12.
  30. ^ "How high did US inflation get this year and where is it headed in 2023?". the Guardian. 2022-12-26. Retrieved 2023-01-12.
  31. ^ Sahm, Claudia (22 February 2018). "Women in Economics Symposium" (presentation). St Louis Fed.
  32. ^ Suiter, Mary; Sahm, Claudia (28 March 2018). "Women in Economics: Claudia Sahm" (Podcast). Timely Topics. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  33. ^ "IAFFE - Petition to the AEA re the EJMR website". www.iaffe.org. Retrieved 2018-10-04.
  34. ^ Cerullo, Megan (July 30, 2020). "Former Fed economist blasts her profession as racist, sexist, elitist". CBS News. Retrieved December 2, 2020.
  35. ^ Parramore, Lynn (September 9, 2020). "What Happens When a Noted Female Economist Fights Toxic Culture in the Field?". Institute for New Economic Thinking. Retrieved December 2, 2020.
  36. ^ Sahm, Claudia (2019-09-05). "and for ego check: teen daughter noted when 'rule' became a thing that "Sahm" isn't my name, it's her dad's (my ex, now co-parent) ... so yeah, it's not about me, duh. people losing jobs is the recession ... policy that spares them is what matters". @Claudia_Sahm. Retrieved 2020-02-18.
  37. ^ "@ColinSeanBaker and @Claudia_Sahm Red heart Red heart married". Twitter. Retrieved 2020-11-30.

Read other articles:

Dangerous to Men

Dangerous to MenIklanSutradaraWilliam C. DowlanProduserMaxwell KargerDitulis olehAndrew Percival YoungerBerdasarkanEliza Comes to Stay olehHenry V. EsmondPemeranViola DanaSinematograferJohn ArnoldPerusahaanproduksiScreen Classics, Inc.DistributorMetro PicturesTanggal rilis April 1920 (1920-04) Durasi6 rolNegaraAmerika SerikatBahasaBisu (intertitel Inggris) Dangerous to Men adalah sebuah film komedi bisu Amerika Serikat tahun 1920 yang hilang[1] garapan William C. Dowland dan...

 

Hubungan Amerika Serikat dengan Malaysia

Hubungan Malaysia–Amerika Serikat Malaysia Amerika Serikat Hubungan Malaysia–Amerika Serikat adalah hubungan bilateral antara Malaysia dan Amerika Serikat menjalin hubungan diplomatik setelah kemerdekaan Malaya pada 1957. AS masih merupakan salah satu mitra dagang terbesar bagi Malaysia dan secara tradisional dianggap sebagai sekutu tertua dan terdekat Malaysia dalam sektor militer, ekonomi dan pendidikan. Malaya adalah negara pendahulu Malaysia, sebuah federasi yang lebih besar yang dib...

 

Kuntul besar

Kuntul Besar Kuntul besar, Ardea alba modesta, pada musim berbiak di Gambus Laut, Lima Puluh Pesisir, Batu Bara, Sumatera Utara Status konservasi LC (IUCN 3.1)[1] Klasifikasi ilmiah Kerajaan: Animalia Filum: Chordata Kelas: Aves Ordo: Pelecaniformes Famili: Ardeidae Genus: Ardea Spesies: Ardea alba Sinonim Casmerodius albus (Linnaeus, 1758) Egretta alba Cramp and Simmons, 1977 Kuntul besar (Ardea alba) adalah spesies burung dari suku Ardeidae. Menghuni pelbagai jenis habitat dar...

Daftar Raja Finlandia

Berikut daftar raja-raja Finlandia Raja-raja Bjelbo 1250-1275: Valdemar dari Swedia (Valdemar Birgerinpoika) regent: Birger Jarl 1275-1290: Magnus III dari Swedia (Maunu Ladonlukko) 1290-1318: Birger dari Swedia (Birger Maununpoika) 1319-1364: Magnus IV dari Swedia (Maunu IV) berturut-turut: Eric XII dari Swedia dan Haakon I of Sweden, anak-anak Magnus IV 1363-1395: Albert dari Mecklenburg (Albrekt Mecklenburgilainen) 1385-87: Olav IV dari Norwegia (Olavi Haakoninpoika) Pemimpin Persatuan Kal...

 

Yves Cochet

Pour les articles homonymes, voir Cochet. Yves Cochet Yves Cochet en 2007. Fonctions Député européen 7 décembre 2011 – 30 juin 2014(2 ans, 6 mois et 23 jours) Élection 6 décembre 2011 (par l’Assemblée nationale) Législature 7e Groupe politique Verts/ALE 25 juillet 1989 – 10 décembre 1991(2 ans, 4 mois et 15 jours) Élection 15 juin 1989 Législature 3e Groupe politique Verts Successeur Marguerite-Marie Dinguirard Député français 19 juin 2002 �...

 

Kimia organoboron

Organoboron Senyawa organoborana atau organoboron adalah senyawa kimia yang merupakan derivat organik dari BH3, sebagai contoh adalah trialkil boran. Kimia organoboron atau kimia organoborana adalah kimia dari senyawa-senyawa ini.[1][2] Senyawa organoboron merupakan pereaksi penting dalam kimia organik yang memungkinkan banyak transformasi kimia, terutama reaksi hidroborasi. Sifat-sifat ikatan B-C Ikatan B-C memiliki polaritas rendah (perbedaan elektronegativitas karbon adalah...

Человек прямоходящий

† Человек прямоходящий Научная классификация Домен:ЭукариотыЦарство:ЖивотныеПодцарство:ЭуметазоиБез ранга:Двусторонне-симметричныеБез ранга:ВторичноротыеТип:ХордовыеПодтип:ПозвоночныеИнфратип:ЧелюстноротыеНадкласс:ЧетвероногиеКлада:АмниотыКлада:Синапсиды�...

 

Reykjavík Summit

1986 Soviet-American diplomatic summit Reykjavík SummitReagan and Gorbachev in HöfðiHost country IcelandDateOctober 11–12, 1986Venue(s)HöfðiCitiesReykjavíkParticipants Mikhail Gorbachev Ronald ReaganFollowsGeneva Summit (1985)PrecedesWashington Summit (1987) The former French consulate, called Höfði, was the site of the Reykjavík Summit in 1986. The Reykjavík Summit was a summit meeting between U.S. President Ronald Reagan and General Secretary of the Communist Party of the S...

 

Campionato europeo di pallanuoto 1999 (femminile)

Campionato europeo di pallanuoto 1999femminile Competizione Campionato europeo di pallanuoto Sport Pallanuoto Edizione VIII Organizzatore LEN Date 4 - 9 settembre Luogo  ItaliaPrato Partecipanti 8 Formula Fase a gironi, eliminaz. diretta Risultati Oro Italia(3º titolo) Argento Paesi Bassi Bronzo Russia Statistiche Incontri disputati 20 Gol segnati 319 (15,95 per incontro) Cronologia della competizione Siviglia 1997 Budapest 2001 Manuale L'VIIIª edizione del campionato europeo di ...

贝蒂诺·克拉克西

贝内德托·贝蒂诺·克拉克西Bettino Craxi第45任意大利总理任期1983年8月4日—1987年4月17日总统亚历山德罗·佩尔蒂尼 弗朗切斯科·科西加副职阿纳尔多·福拉尼前任阿明托雷·范范尼继任阿明托雷·范范尼 个人资料出生(1934-02-24)1934年2月24日伦巴第米兰逝世2000年1月19日(2000歲—01—19)（65歲）突尼斯哈马麦特国籍意大利政党意大利社会党儿女Bobo、Stefania 克拉克西在突尼斯的墓地。 �...

 

Spartiate

Spartan warrior-aristocrat Part of a series on theSparta Spartan Constitution Great Rhetra Oligarchy Legislators: Lycurgus, Chilon, Epitadeus, Agis IV, Cleomenes III Government List of Kings of Sparta (Agiads, Eurypontids) Gerousia Ephorate Ekklesia Navarchy Social groups Spartiates Perioeci Helots Neodamodes Trophimoi Mothax Sciritae Epeunacti Partheniae Society Agoge Crypteia Spartan army Syssitia Xenelasia Women Cults Aphrodite (Ambologera, Areia, Temple) Artemis (Caryatis, Isora, Orthia) ...

 

西遊記大結局之仙履奇緣

本條目存在以下問題，請協助改善本條目或在討論頁針對議題發表看法。 此條目需要編修，以確保文法、用詞、语气、格式、標點等使用恰当。 (2013年8月6日)請按照校對指引，幫助编辑這個條目。（幫助、討論） 此條目剧情、虛構用語或人物介紹过长过细，需清理无关故事主轴的细节、用語和角色介紹。 (2020年10月6日)劇情、用語和人物介紹都只是用於了解故事主軸，輔助�...

Don Shirley

American pianist and composer (1927–2013) Don ShirleyBornDonald Walbridge Shirley(1927-01-29)January 29, 1927Pensacola, Florida, U.S.DiedApril 6, 2013(2013-04-06) (aged 86)Manhattan, New York, U.S.EducationPrairie View A&M UniversityVirginia State UniversityCatholic University (BM)University of ChicagoOccupationsMusiciancomposerSpouse Jean C. Hill ​ ​(m. 1952, divorced)​Musical careerGenresJazzclassicalchamber jazzInstrument(s)PianoorganYe...

 

Hamlin Reservation

Nature reserve in Massachusetts, United States Hamlin Reservation Hamlin Reservation is a nature reserve located in Ipswich, Massachusetts. The reserve was established by The Trustees of Reservations in 1993.[1] References ^ Hamlin Reservation. The Trustees of Reservations. Retrieved July 2, 2021. External links The Trustees of Reservations: Hamlin Reservation Trail map vteProtected areas of MassachusettsFederalNational Historical Parks Adams Blackstone River Valley Boston Lowell Minu...

 

Mira variable

Type of variable star Mira, the prototype of the Mira variables Mira variables /ˈmaɪrə/ (named for the prototype star Mira) are a class of pulsating stars characterized by very red colours, pulsation periods longer than 100 days, and amplitudes greater than one magnitude in infrared and 2.5 magnitude at visual wavelengths.[1] They are red giants in the very late stages of stellar evolution, on the asymptotic giant branch (AGB), that will expel their outer envelopes as planetary neb...

Alappuzha–Chennai Express

Express train service between Alappuzha and Chennai Alappuzha–Chennai ExpressAlleppey SUPERFAST ExpressOverviewService typeSuperfastStatusOperatingLocaleKerala and Tamil NaduFirst service1 April 1966; 58 years ago (1966-04-01)Current operator(s)Southern Railway zoneFormer operator(s)SOUTH INDIAN RAILWAYRidershipSOUTHERN RAILWAYRouteTerminiAlappuzhaMGR Chennai CentralStops23Distance travelled989 KM 746 km (464 mi)Average journey time13 hours, 35 minutesService fre...

 

Stanley Holloway

British actor, singer and comedian (1890–1982) Holloway in 1974 Stanley Augustus Holloway OBE (1 October 1890 – 30 January 1982) was an English actor, comedian, singer and monologist. He was famous for his comic and character roles on stage and screen, especially that of Alfred P. Doolittle in My Fair Lady. He was also renowned for his comic monologues and songs, which he performed and recorded throughout most of his 70-year career. Born in London, Holloway pursued a career as a cler...

 

Michael J. Fox

Canadian and American actor and activist (born 1961) Michael J. FoxOCFox in 2020BornMichael Andrew Fox (1961-06-09) June 9, 1961 (age 63)Edmonton, Alberta, CanadaNationalityCanadianAmerican[1]OccupationsActoractivisttelevision producerwriterYears active1978–present[a]Spouse Tracy Pollan ​(m. 1988)​Children4Websitemichaeljfox.orgSignature Michael Andrew Fox OC (born June 9, 1961), known professionally as Michael J. Fox, is a Canadian and...

Knud Schrøder

Artikel ini sebatang kara, artinya tidak ada artikel lain yang memiliki pranala balik ke halaman ini.Bantulah menambah pranala ke artikel ini dari artikel yang berhubungan atau coba peralatan pencari pranala.Tag ini diberikan pada Desember 2022. Knud SchrøderLahir(1903-07-28)28 Juli 1903DenmarkMeninggal15 Desember 1976(1976-12-15) (umur 73)DenmarkPekerjaanPemeranTahun aktif1944-1965 Knud Schrøder (28 Juli 1903 – 15 Desember 1976) adalah seorang pemeran film Denmark...

 

Menton (Alpes-Maritimes)

Pour les articles homonymes, voir Menton. Ne doit pas être confondu avec Menthon-Saint-Bernard. Menton Vue d'une partie de la vieille ville de Menton, depuis le vieux port. Blason Administration Pays France Région Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur Département Alpes-Maritimes Arrondissement Nice Intercommunalité Communauté d'agglomération de la Riviera française(siège) Maire Mandat Yves Juhel (LR) 2022-2026 Code postal 06500 Code commune 06083 Démographie Gentilé Mentonnais ou Mentonasq...