2023 Nigerian presidential election in Kwara State

2023 Nigerian presidential election in Kwara State
← 2019 25 February 2023 2027 →
Registered1,695,927
 
Nominee Bola Tinubu Atiku Abubakar
Party APC PDP
Home state Lagos Adamawa
Running mate Kashim Shettima Ifeanyi Okowa
Popular vote 263,572 136,909
Percentage 56.08% 29.13%
 
Nominee Peter Obi Rabiu Kwankwaso
Party LP New Nigeria Peoples Party
Home state Anambra Kano
Running mate Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed Isaac Idahosa
Popular vote 31,186 3,141
Percentage 6.64% 0.67%
President before election

Muhammadu Buhari
APC

Elected President

TBD

The 2023 Nigerian presidential election in Kwara State was held on 25 February 2023 as part of the nationwide 2023 Nigerian presidential election to elect the president and vice president of Nigeria.[1] Other federal elections, including elections to the House of Representatives and the Senate, will also be held on the same date while state elections will be held two weeks afterward on 11 March.

Background

Kwara State is a large state in the North Central with a growing economy and vast natural areas but facing agricultural underdevelopment, deforestation, and insecurity.[2][3] The state's 2019 elections had a large swing towards the state APC. Although the APC had won most 2015 elections in Kwara, the vast majority of APC officeholders left the party in 2018 to follow Senator Bukola Saraki into the PDP; despite the Saraki dynasty's longstanding control over Kwaran politics, the APC-led Ó Tó Gẹ́ movement swept the state in 2019. The APC won all three senate seats back and in the process, defeated Saraki by a wide margin. Similarly, the APC gained five PDP-held House seats to sweep all House of Representatives elections. On the state level, the APC gained the governorship and all but one seat in the House of Assembly. These results, coupled with presidential incumbent Muhammadu Buhari (APC) winning the state with nearly 70%, led to the categorization of the 2019 elections as a seismic shift in the state's politics.

Polling

Polling organisation/client Fieldwork
date 		Sample
size 		Others Undecided Undisclosed Not voting
Tinubu
APC 		Obi
LP 		Kwankwaso
NNPP 		Abubakar
PDP
BantuPage January 2023 N/A 48% 14% 0% 8% – 11% 12% 8%
Nextier
(Kwara crosstabs of national poll) 		27 January 2023 N/A 35.9% 25.6% – 30.8% 2.6% 5.1% – –
Stears January 2023 500 26% 11% 2% 6% – 51% – 6%
SBM Intelligence for EiE
(Kwara crosstabs of national poll) 		22 January-6 February 2023 N/A 29% 11% 1% 13% 1% 46% – –

Projections

Source Projection As of
Africa Elects[a][4] Likely Tinubu 24 February 2023
Dataphyte[b][5]
Tinubu: 42.54% 11 February 2023
Obi: 17.66%
Abubakar: 25.21%
Others: 14.59%
Enough is Enough-
SBM Intelligence[c][6] 		Tinubu 17 February 2023
SBM Intelligence[d][7] Too close to call 15 December 2022
ThisDay[e][8]
Tinubu: 35% 27 December 2022
Obi: 10%
Kwankwaso: 10%
Abubakar: 40%
Others/Undecided: 5%
The Nation[f][9][10] Tinubu 12-19 February 2023

General election

Results

2023 Nigerian presidential election in Kwara State
Party Candidate Votes %
A Christopher Imumolen
AA Hamza al-Mustapha
ADP Yabagi Sani
APP Osita Nnadi
AAC Omoyele Sowore
ADC Dumebi Kachikwu
APC Bola Tinubu
APGA Peter Umeadi
APM Princess Chichi Ojei
BP Sunday Adenuga
LP Peter Obi
NRM Felix Johnson Osakwe
New Nigeria Peoples Party Rabiu Kwankwaso
PRP Kola Abiola
PDP Atiku Abubakar
SDP Adewole Adebayo
YPP Malik Ado-Ibrahim
ZLP Dan Nwanyanwu
Total votes 100.00%
Invalid or blank votes N/A
Turnout

By senatorial district

The results of the election by senatorial district.

Senatorial District Bola Tinubu
APC 		Atiku Abubakar
PDP 		Peter Obi
LP 		Rabiu Kwankwaso
NNPP 		Others Total valid votes
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
Kwara Central Senatorial District[g] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Kwara North Senatorial District[h] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Kwara South Senatorial District[i] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD

By federal constituency

The results of the election by federal constituency.

Federal Constituency Bola Tinubu
APC 		Atiku Abubakar
PDP 		Peter Obi
LP 		Rabiu Kwankwaso
NNPP 		Others Total valid votes
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
Asa/Ilorin West Federal Constituency[j] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Baruten/Kaiama Federal Constituency[k] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Edu/Moro/Pategi Federal Constituency[l] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Ekiti/Isin/Irepodun/Oke-ero Federal Constituency[m] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Ilorin East/Ilorin South Federal Constituency[n] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Offa/Oyun/Ifelodun Federal Constituency[o] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD

By local government area

The results of the election by local government area.

Local government area Bola Tinubu
APC 		Atiku Abubakar
PDP 		Peter Obi
LP 		Rabiu Kwankwaso
NNPP 		Others Total valid votes Turnout (%)
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
Asa TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Baruten TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Edu TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Ekiti TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Ifelodun TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Ilorin East TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Ilorin South TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Ilorin West TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Irepodun TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Isin TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Kaiama TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Moro TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Offa TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Oke Ero TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Oyun TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Pategi TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %

See also

Notes

  1. ^ AfricaElects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".
  2. ^ Dataphyte projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
  3. ^ EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.
  4. ^ SBM projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Too close to call" (TCC).
  5. ^ ThisDay projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
  6. ^ The Nation projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Battlegrounds."
  7. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Asa, Ilorin East, Ilorin South, and Ilorin West.
  8. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Baruten, Edu, Pategi, Kaiama, and Moro.
  9. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ekiti, Oke Ero, Offa, Ifelodun, Irepodun, Isin, and Oyun.
  10. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Asa and Ilorin West.
  11. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Baruten and Kaiama.
  12. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Edu, Moro, and Pategi.
  13. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ekiti, Irepodun, Isin, and Oke Ero.
  14. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ilorin East and Ilorin South.
  15. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ifelodun, Offa, and Oyun.

References

  1. ^ Jimoh, Abbas (26 February 2022). "INEC Sets New Dates For 2023 General Elections". Daily Trust. Retrieved 26 February 2022.
  2. ^ Hammad, Abdulrasheed (May 2022). "How charcoal, indiscriminate logging contribute to deforestation in Kwara". International Centre for Investigative Reporting. Retrieved 22 May 2022.
  3. ^ "It's coming South: Rising violence in Kwara". SBM Intelligence. 8 February 2022. Retrieved 18 April 2022.
  4. ^ Elimian, Adrian. "Nigerian Presidential Election: State Ratings". Africa Elects. Retrieved 25 February 2023.
  5. ^ "President Tinubu: Predilections and Predictions". Substack. Dataphyte. Retrieved 11 February 2023.
  6. ^ "The EiE-SBM 2023 Election forecast: It all hinges on insecurity and turnout". SBM Intelligence. 17 February 2023. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
  7. ^ "Projection: 2023 presidential elections". SBM Intelligence. 15 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
  8. ^ "THISDAY 2023 Election Centre: Why Presidential Run off is Increasingly Likely". ThisDay. 27 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
  9. ^ Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny (12 February 2023). "Who wins 2023 presidential election?". The Nation. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
  10. ^ Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny (19 February 2023). "WHO WINS 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION? | The Nation Newspaper". The Nation Newspaper. Retrieved 19 February 2023.