2012 United States Senate election in Virginia

2012 United States Senate election in Virginia
← 2006 November 6, 2012 2018 →
Turnout66.4% (voting eligible)[1]
 
Nominee Tim Kaine George Allen
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 2,010,067 1,785,542
Percentage 52.83% 46.92%
Kaine:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Allen:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      50%
U.S. senator before election

Jim Webb
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Tim Kaine
Democratic

Elections in Virginia
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This article is part of a series about
Tim Kaine
Mayor of Richmond
Lieutenant Governor of Virginia
Chair of the DNC
Governor of Virginia
U.S. Senator from Virginia
Vice presidential campaign

The 2012 United States Senate election in Virginia took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Jim Webb retired instead of running for reelection to a second term, and former Democratic governor of Virginia Tim Kaine won the open seat over Republican former senator and governor George Allen.[2][3] Kaine was unopposed for the Democratic nomination, and the Republicans nominated Allen through a primary on June 12, 2012.[4] Allen had previously held this seat for one term before narrowly losing reelection to Webb in 2006.

Republican primary

In Virginia, parties have the option of whether to hold a primary or to nominate their candidate through a party convention. In November 2010, the Virginia GOP announced that it had chosen to hold a primary.[5]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

  • Tim Donner, founder of Horizons Television and LibertyNation.com[10]
  • David McCormick, attorney[11]

Declined

Debates

Three debates between Republican candidates were announced before the primary on June 12, 2012. The debates took place in Richmond, Northern Virginia, and Hampton Roads.[16]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		George
Allen 		Other
candidates 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[17] February 24–27, 2011 400 ±4.9% 52% 25% 23%
Public Policy Polling[18] July 21–24, 2011 400 ±4.9% 58% 23% 19%
Public Policy Polling[19] December 11–13, 2011 350 ±5.2% 53% 25% 22%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		George
Allen 		E. W.
Jackson 		Bob
Marshall 		David
McCormick 		Jamie
Radtke 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[18] July 21–24, 2011 400 ±4.9% 68% 2% 2% 0% 6% 22%
Public Policy Polling[19] December 11–13, 2011 350 ±5.2% 67% 2% 3% 2% 5% 21%
Public Policy Polling[20] April 26–29, 2012 400 ±4.9% 66% 2% 8% — 3% 20%
Washington Post[21] April 28 – May 2, 2012 1,101 ±3.5% 62% 3% 12% — 5% 18%

Endorsements

George Allen
Jamie Radtke
  • Bob Arment, Louisa County Republican Party Chairman
  • Steve Arrington, Bedford County Supervisor
  • James Fisher, Fauquier County Commonwealth’s Attorney
  • Jeff Frederick, former Virginia House of Delegates member
  • Joe Glover, Family Policy Network president
  • Jack Reid, former Virginia House of Delegates member
  • Eva Scott, Former Virginia state senator
  • John Sharp, Bedford County Supervisor
  • Richard Viguerie, conservative activist

Results

Republican primary results[27]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican George Allen 167,607 65.5
Republican Jamie Radtke 59,005 23.0
Republican Bob Marshall 17,302 6.8
Republican E. W. Jackson 12,083 4.7
Total votes 255,997 100

Hank the Cat

On February 27, 2012, a Maine Coon cat named Hank the Cat was announced to be running a write-in campaign as a joke candidate.[28] Hank's campaign raised $16,000 for animal charities throughout the world.[29]

General election

Candidates

Only Allen and Kaine qualified for the ballot.

Debates

David Gregory moderated a debate between Kaine and Allen on September 20, 2012. Topics included partisan gridlock in Washington policy making, job creation, tax policy, and Middle East unrest.[32]

External links

Campaign

Once incumbent U.S. Senator Jim Webb decided to retire, many Democratic candidates were speculated. These included U.S. Congressmen Rick Boucher,[33] Gerry Connolly,[34] Glenn Nye,[35] Tom Perriello[36] and Bobby Scott.[37] However, they all declined and encouraged Kaine to run for the seat, believing he would be by far the most electable candidate. Courtney Lynch, former Marine Corps Officer and Fairfax business consultant[38] and Julien Modica, former CEO of the Brain Trauma Recovery & Policy Institute,[38] eventually withdrew from the election, allowing Kaine to be unopposed in the Democratic primary.

Fundraising

Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Tim Kaine (D) $10,390,929 $7,666,452 $2,724,476 $0
George Allen (R) $8,015,948 $4,678,004 $3,337,942 $0
Kevin Chisholm (I) $24,165 $24,162 $0 $0
Terrence Modglin (I) $5,655 $5,389 $266 $0
Source: Federal Election Commission[39][40][41][42]

Top contributors

[43]

Tim Kaine Contribution George Allen Contribution Kevin Chisholm Contribution
League of Conservation Voters $76,568 McGuireWoods LLP $76,950 Valu Net $2,475
Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld $51,650 Altria Group $64,749 Geolq Inc $1,500
University of Virginia $42,075 Alpha Natural Resources $38,000
McGuireWoods LLP $38,550 Elliott Management Corporation $35,913
Covington & Burling $36,700 Koch Industries $35,000
DLA Piper $31,750 Lorillard Tobacco Company $34,715
Bain Capital $30,000 Alliance Resource Partners $33,500
Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom $28,250 Dominion Resources $31,800
Patton Boggs LLP $26,750 Norfolk Southern $31,550
Norfolk Southern $26,000 Boeing $23,750

Top industries

[44]

Tim Kaine Contribution George Allen Contribution Kevin Chisholm Contribution Terrence Modglin Contribution
Lawyers/Law Firms $1,297,792 Retired $709,693 Misc Energy $250 Lawyers/Law Firms $200
Retired $762,722 Real Estate $384,038
Financial Institutions $477,700 Lawyers/Law Firms $348,459
Business Services $373,900 Financial Institutions $299,115
Real Estate $372,829 Leadership PACs $277,000
Lobbyists $287,545 Lobbyists $275,600
Education $282,475 Mining $197,206
Misc Finance $218,600 Oil & Gas $196,400
Leadership PACs $201,500 Insurance $159,065
Entertainment industry $156,279 Misc Finance $157,963

Independent expenditures

In early October 2012, Crossroads GPS announced it would launch a $16 million advertising buy in national races, of which four were this and three other Senate elections.[45]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[46] Tossup November 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[47] Lean D November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report[48] Tossup November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics[49] Tossup November 5, 2012

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Tim
Kaine (D) 		George
Allen (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[50] November 10–13, 2010 551 ±4.2% 50% 44% — 6%
Public Policy Polling[51] February 24–27, 2011 524 ±3.5% 47% 47% — 6%
Washington Post[52] April 28 – May 4, 2011 1,040 ±3.5% 46% 46% — 6%
Public Policy Polling[53] May 5–8, 2011 547 ±4.2% 46% 44% — 10%
Quinnipiac[54] June 21–27, 2011 1,434 ±2.6% 43% 42% 2% 11%
Public Policy Polling[55] July 21–24, 2011 500 ±4.4% 46% 43% — 11%
Quinnipiac[56] September 7–12, 2011 1,368 ±4.0% 44% 45% 1% 9%
Rasmussen Reports[57] September 28, 2011 500 ±4.5% 46% 45% 3% 7%
CNU/Times-Dispatch[58] October 3–8, 2011 1,027 ±3.1% 44% 42% 3% 12%
Quinnipiac[59] October 3–9, 2011 1,459 ±2.6% 45% 44% 1% 9%
Public Policy Polling[60] December 10–12, 2011 600 ±4.0% 47% 42% — 11%
Quinnipiac[61] December 13–19, 2011 1,135 ±2.9% 42% 44% 1% 12%
Mason-Dixon[62] January 16–18, 2012 625 ±3.9% 46% 46% — 8%
Quinnipiac[63] February 1–6, 2012 1,544 ±2.5% 45% 44% 1% 9%
CNU/Times-Dispatch[64] February 4–13, 2012 1,018 ±3.1% 40% 42% 2% 16%
Rasmussen Reports[65] February 21, 2012 500 ±4.5% 46% 46% 3% 5%
Roanoke College[66] February 13–26, 2012 607 ±4.0% 37% 45% — 19%
NBC News/Marist[67] February 29 – March 2, 2012 2,518 ±2% 48% 39% — 14%
Quinnipiac[68] March 13–18, 2012 1,034 ±3.1% 47% 44% 1% 8%
Rasmussen Reports[69] March 20, 2012 500 ±4.5% 44% 46% 3% 7%
Roanoke College[70] March 26 – April 5, 2012 537 ±4.2% 39% 46% — 15%
Rasmussen Reports[71] April 23, 2012 500 ±4.5% 45% 46% 4% 5%
Public Policy Polling[20] April 26–29, 2012 680 ±3.8% 46% 45% — 9%
Washington Post[72] April 28 – May 2, 2012 964 ±4% 46% 46% — 8%
Marist[73] May 17–20, 2012 1,076 ±3% 49% 43% — 9%
Rasmussen Reports[74] June 3, 2012 500 ±4.5% 46% 44% 3% 6%
Quinnipiac[75] May 30 – June 4, 2012 1,282 ±2.7% 44% 43% 2% 10%
We Ask America[76] June 25, 2012 1,106 ±2.95% 35% 44% — 21%
Public Policy Polling[77] July 5–8, 2012 647 ±3.9% 46% 44% — 11%
Quinnipiac[78] July 10–16, 2012 1,673 ±2.4% 44% 46% 1% 10%
Rasmussen Reports[74] July 16–17, 2012 500 ±4.5% 46% 45% 5% 5%
Quinnipiac[79] July 31 – August 6, 2012 1,412 ±2.6% 48% 46% — 6%
Rasmussen Reports[80] August 7, 2012 500 ±4.5% 46% 46% 2% 6%
Public Policy Polling[81] August 16–19, 2012 855 ±3.4% 46% 46% — 9%
Rasmussen Reports[82] August 23, 2012 500 ±4.5% 45% 45% 2% 8%
Gravis Marketing[83] September 8–9, 2012 2,238 ±2.2% 43% 48% — 10%
NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll[84] September 9–11, 2012 996 ±3.1% 46% 46% — 8%
Rasmussen Reports[85] September 13, 2012 500 ±4.5% 47% 45% 2% 6%
Washington Post[86] September 12–16, 2012 847 ±4% 51% 43% 3% 4%
Public Policy Polling[87] September 13–16, 2012 1,021 ±3.1% 47% 46% — 7%
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac[88] September 11–17, 2012 1,485 ±2.5% 51% 44% — 5%
FOX NEWS Poll[89] September 16–18, 2012 1,006 ±3% 47% 43% 1% 9%
Gravis Marketing[90] September 17, 2012 2,238 ±2.2% 43% 48% — 9%
Huffpost Politics[91] September 20, 2012 1,000 ±3% 46% 45% — 9%
Suffolk University[92] September 24–26, 2012 600 ±4% 44% 44% — 12%
NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll[93] September 30 – October 1, 2012 969 ±3.1% 49% 44% 1% 7%
Rasmussen Reports[94] October 4, 2012 500 ±4.5% 52% 45% — 3%
Public Policy Polling[95] October 4–7, 2012 725 ±3.6% 51% 44% — 5%
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac[96] October 4–9, 2012 1,288 ±2.7% 51% 44% — 5%
We Ask America[97] October 7–9, 2012 1,296 ±2.9% 41% 46% — 13%
NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll[98] October 7–9, 2012 981 ±3.1% 47% 46% — 7%
Rasmussen Reports[99] October 11, 2012 750 ±4.0% 48% 47% 1% 4%
Old Dominion University[100] September 19 – October 17, 2012 465 ±3.4% 50% 43% — 6%
Rasmussen Reports[101] October 18, 2012 500 ±4.0% 49% 48% 3% —
Rasmussen Reports[102] October 24, 2012 750 ±4.0% 49% 48% 3% —
Washington Post[103] October 22–26, 2012 1,228 ±3.5% 51% 44% — 5%
Roanoke College[104] October 23–26, 2012 638 ±4.0% 42% 47% — 10%
Gravis Marketing[105] October 26, 2012 645 ±3.9% 46% 48% — 5%
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac[106] October 23–28, 2012 1,074 ±3% 50% 46% — 4%
Reuters/Ipsos[107] October 29–31, 2012 703 ±4.2% 47% 45% 1% 7%
855 ±3.8% 50% 38% 1% 11%
WeAskAmerica[108] October 30 – November 1, 2012 1,069 ±3% 50% 50% — —
NBC/WSJ/Marist[109] November 1–2, 2012 1,165 ±2.9% 49% 46% — 4%
Public Policy Polling[110] November 3–4, 2012 975 ±3.1% 52% 46% — 2%
Rasmussen Reports[101] November 4, 2012 750 ±4% 49% 47% 1% 4%
Hypothetical polling

Democratic primary

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Rick
Boucher 		Tim
Kaine 		Tom
Perriello 		Gerry
Connolly 		Glenn
Nye 		Bobby
Scott 		Doug
Wilder 		Other/
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[111] February 24–27, 2011 400 ±4.9% 9% 53% 9% 3% 1% 9% 8% 9%
11% 65% 15% N/A 9%

General election

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Tim
Kaine (D) 		Bob
Marshall (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[51] February 24–27, 2011 524 ±3.5% 49% 35% — 16%
CNU/Times-Dispatch[64] February 4–13, 2012 1,018 ±3.1% 39% 28% 4% 29%
Public Policy Polling[20] April 26–29, 2012 680 ±3.8% 49% 36% — 15%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Tim
Kaine (D) 		Jamie
Radtke (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[51] February 24–27, 2011 524 ±3.5% 49% 33% — 17%
Washington Post[52] April 28 – May 4, 2011 1,040 ±3.5% 57% 31% 1% 9%
Public Policy Polling[53] May 5–8, 2011 547 ±4.2% 49% 33% — 18%
Public Policy Polling[55] July 21–24, 2011 500 ±4.4% 47% 31% — 22%
CNU/Times-Dispatch[58] October 3–8, 2011 1,027 ±3.1% 46% 32% 3% 19%
Public Policy Polling[60] December 10–12, 2011 600 ±4.0% 49% 33% — 19%
CNU/Times-Dispatch[64] February 4–13, 2012 1,018 ±3.1% 40% 26% 3% 31%
Public Policy Polling[20] April 26–29, 2012 680 ±3.8% 50% 35% — 15%

with Rick Boucher

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Rick
Boucher (D) 		George
Allen (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[51] February 24–27, 2011 524 ±3.5 42% 47% — 11%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Rick
Boucher (D) 		Bob
Marshall (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[51] February 24–27, 2011 524 ±3.5% 40% 32% — 28%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Rick
Boucher (D) 		Jamie
Radtke (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[51] February 24–27, 2011 524 ±3.5% 40% 29% — 31%

with Tom Perriello

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Tom
Perriello (D) 		George
Allen (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[50] November 10–13, 2010 551 ±4.2% 42% 47% — 11%
Public Policy Polling[51] February 24–27, 2011 524 ±3.5% 41% 48% — 11%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Tom
Perriello (D) 		Bob
Marshall (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[51] February 24–27, 2011 524 ±3.5% 39% 35% — 26%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Tom
Periello (D) 		Jamie
Radtke (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[51] February 24–27, 2011 524 ±3.5% 40% 32% — 28%

with Bobby Scott

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Bobby
Scott (D) 		George
Allen (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[53] May 5–8, 2011 547 ±4.2% 39% 44% — 17%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Bobby
Scott (D) 		Jamie
Radtke (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[53] May 5–8, 2011 547 ±4.2% 39% 34% — 27%

with Jim Webb

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jim
Webb (D) 		George
Allen (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[112] July 31 – August 3, 2009 579 — 43% 44% — 13%
Public Policy Polling[50] November 10–13, 2010 551 ±4.2% 49% 45% — 6%
Clarus Research Group[113] December 7–9, 2010 600 ±4.0% 41% 40% — 19%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jim
Webb (D) 		Bill
Bolling (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[50] November 10–13, 2010 551 ±4.2% 48% 39% — 12%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jim
Webb (D) 		Bob
McDonnell (R) 		Other Undecided
Clarus Research Group[113] December 7–9, 2010 600 ±4.0% 39% 42% — 19%

Results

United States Senate election in Virginia, 2012[114]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Tim Kaine 2,010,067 52.83% +3.24%
Republican George Allen 1,785,542 46.92% −2.28%
Write-in 9,410 0.25% +0.15%
Total votes 3,805,019 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties and independent cities that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties and independent cities that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Kaine won 6 of 11 congressional districts, including three held by Republicans.[115]

District Allen Kaine Representative
1st 52.75% 47.25% Rob Wittman
2nd 47.94% 52.06% Scott Rigell
3rd 20.65% 79.35% Robert C. Scott
4th 49.92% 50.08% Randy Forbes
5th 52.96% 47.04% Robert Hurt
6th 59.04% 40.96% Bob Goodlatte
7th 55.17% 44.83% Eric Cantor
8th 30.54% 69.46% Jim Moran
9th 61.86% 38.14% Morgan Griffith
10th 49.55% 50.45% Frank Wolf
11th 36.24% 63.76% Gerry Connolly

See also

References

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  40. ^ George Allen Campaign Finances
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  44. ^ Donors by industry (opensecrets.org)
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Official campaign websites