Predictions of apocalyptic events that will result in the extinction of humanity, a collapse of civilization, or the destruction of the planet have been made since at least the beginning of the Common Era.[1] Most predictions are related to Abrahamic religions, often standing for or similar to the eschatological events described in their scriptures. Christian predictions typically refer to events like the Rapture, Great Tribulation, Last Judgment, and the Second Coming of Christ. End-time events are normally predicted to occur within the lifetime of the person making the prediction and are usually made using the Bible—in particular the New Testament—as either the primary or exclusive source for the predictions.[1] This often takes the form of mathematical calculations, such as trying to calculate the point in time where it will have been 6,000 years since the supposed creation of the Earth by the Abrahamic God,[2] which according to the Talmud marks the deadline for the Messiah to appear.[3] Predictions of the end from natural events have also been theorised by various scientists and scientific groups. While these predictions are generally accepted as plausible within the scientific community, the events and phenomena are not expected to occur for hundreds of thousands, or even billions, of years from now.
Little research has been carried out into the reasons that people make apocalyptic predictions.[4] Historically, such predictions have been made for the purpose of diverting attention from actual crises like poverty and war, pushing political agendas, or promoting hatred of certain groups; antisemitism was a popular theme of Christian apocalyptic predictions in medieval times,[5] while French and Lutheran depictions of the apocalypse were known to feature English and Catholic antagonists, respectively.[6] According to psychologists, possible explanations for why people believe in modern apocalyptic predictions include: mentally reducing the actual danger in the world to a single and definable source; an innate human fascination with fear; personality traits of paranoia and powerlessness; and a modern romanticism related to end-times, resulting from its portrayal in contemporary fiction.[4][7] The prevalence of Abrahamic religions throughout modern history is said to have created a culture that encourages the embracement of a future drastically different from the present.[1][8] Such a culture is credited for the rise in popularity of predictions that are more secular in nature, such as the 2012 phenomenon, while maintaining the centuries-old theme that a powerful force will bring about the end of humanity.[8]
In 2012, opinion polls conducted across 20 countries found that over 14% of people believe the world will end in their lifetime, with percentages ranging from 6% of people in France to 22% in the United States and Turkey. Belief in the apocalypse is most prevalent in people with lower levels of education, lower household incomes, and those under the age of 35.[9][10] In the United Kingdom in 2015, 23% of the general public believed the apocalypse was likely to occur in their lifetime, compared to 10% of experts from the Global Challenges Foundation. The general public believed the likeliest cause would be nuclear war, while experts thought it would be artificial intelligence. Only 3% of Britons thought the end would be caused by the Last Judgement, compared with 16% of Americans. Up to 3% of the people surveyed in both the UK and the US thought the apocalypse would be caused by zombies or alien invasion.[11][12][13]
The Jewish Essene sect of ascetics saw the Jewish uprising against the Romans in 66–70 in Judea as the final end-time battle which would bring about the arrival of the Messiah. By the authority of Simon, coins were minted declaring the redemption of Israel.
This French bishop stated that the world would end before 400 AD, writing, "There is no doubt that the Antichrist has already been born. Firmly established already in his early years, he will, after reaching maturity, achieve supreme power."
Good Friday coincided with the Feast of the Annunciation; this had long been believed to be the event that would bring forth the Antichrist, and thus the end-times, within three years.
Various Christian clerics predicted this date as the Millennium, including Pope Sylvester II. As a result, riots are said to have occurred in Europe and pilgrims headed east to Jerusalem. Many historians, however, dispute that any of these events ever took place.
Following the failure of the 1 January 1000, prediction, some theorists proposed that the end would occur 1,000 years after Jesus' death, instead of his birth.
Many Russians beginning from the start of the 15th century believed this year would be the end of the world, since it would be the end of the seventh millennium and the start of the eighth millennium according to the Byzantine calendar. In 1408, this belief led to the Russian Orthodox Church making the decision not to compute the date of Easter beyond 1491.
This painter believed he was living during the Tribulation, and that the Millennium would begin in three and a half years from 1500. He wrote into his painting The Mystical Nativity that the Devil was loose and would soon be chained.
A group of astrologers in London predicted the world would end by a flood starting in London, based on calculations made the previous June. Twenty thousand Londoners left their homes and headed for higher ground in anticipation.
1525 would mark the beginning of the Millennium, according to this Anabaptist. His followers were killed by cannon fire in an uneven battle with government troops. He died under torture and was beheaded.
This Anabaptist prophet predicted Christ's Second Coming to take place this year in Strasbourg. He claimed that 144,000 people would be saved, while the rest of the world would be consumed by fire.
During the Münster rebellion, this Anabaptist leader declared that the apocalypse would take place on this day. When the day came he led a failed attack against Franz von Waldeck and was decapitated.
In his book The Restoration of Christianity, the Spanish born reformer claimed that the Devil's reign in this world had started in 325 AD, at the Council of Nicea, and would last for 1260 years, thus ending in 1585.
This group of radical Christians predicted that the final apocalyptic battle and the destruction of the Antichrist were to take place between 1655 and 1657.
The presence of 666 in the date, the death of 100,000 Londoners to bubonic plague, and the Great Fire of London led to superstitious fears of the end of the world from some Christians.
The sky turning dark during the day was interpreted as a sign of the end times. The primary cause of the event is believed to have been a combination of smoke from forest fires, a thick fog, and cloud cover.
This Presbyterian minister predicted the destruction of the world by earthquake in 1805, followed by an age of everlasting peace when God would be known by all.
In Leeds, England, in 1806 a hen began laying eggs on which the phrase "Christ is coming" was written. Eventually it was discovered to be a hoax. The owner, Mary Bateman, had written on the eggs in a corrosive ink so as to etch the eggs, and reinserted the eggs back into the hen's oviduct.
This 64-year-old self-described prophet claimed she was pregnant with the Christ child, and that he would be born on 19 October 1814. She died later that year having not delivered a child, and an autopsy proved she had not been pregnant.
In the 1730s this Lutheran clergyman proclaimed that Judgment Day would come in 1836, with the pope as the anti-Christ and the Freemasons representing the "false prophet" of Revelations.
Wesley, the founder of the Methodist Church, foresaw the Millennium beginning this year. He wrote that Revelation 12:14 referred to 1058 to 1836, "when Christ should come".
After Christ did not return on 21 March 1844, the Millerites then revised William Miller's prediction to 22 October the same year, claiming to have miscalculated Scripture. The realization that the predictions were incorrect resulted in the Great Disappointment.
In 1870, Wendell published his views in the booklet entitled The Present Truth, or Meat in Due Season concluding that the Second Advent was sure to occur in 1873.
This Christian minister predicted the return of Jesus to occur in 1874, and after this date reinterpreted the prediction to say that Jesus had indeed returned in invisible form.
This 15th-century prophet was quoted as saying "The world to an end shall come, In eighteen hundred and eighty one" in a book published in 1862. In 1873 it was revealed to be a forgery; however, this did not stop some people from expecting the end.
Keeler, a prominent doctor in Connecticut, predicted that due to the alignment of the planets, the world would come to an end and "complete the planetary cycle as it was in the days of Noah".
Flammarion predicted that the 1910 appearance of Halley's Comet "would impregnate that atmosphere and possibly snuff out all life on the planet" but not the planet itself. "Comet pills" were sold to protect against toxic gases.
This pyramidologist concluded from his research on the dimensions of the Great Pyramid of Giza that the Second Coming would occur somewhere between 1892 and 1911.
Russell said "...the battle of the great day of God Almighty... The date of the close of that 'battle' is definitely marked in Scripture as October 1914. It is already in progress, its beginning dating from October, 1874."
In 1918, Christendom would go down as a system to oblivion and be succeeded by revolutionary governments. God would "destroy the churches wholesale and the church members by the millions." Church members would "perish by the sword of war, revolution and anarchy." The dead would lie unburied. In 1920 all earthly governments would disappear, with worldwide anarchy prevailing.
According to this Seventh-Day Adventist, the angel Gabriel appeared before her in a vision and told her that the world would end at midnight on this date.
This British MP, who was one of the 12 apostles of the Catholic Apostolic Church, believed that the world was growing nearer to the Apocalypse due to what he viewed as the rampant immorality of the times in Europe.
The founder of the Worldwide Church of God told members of his church that the Rapture was to take place in 1936, and that only they would be saved. After the prophecy failed, he changed the date three more times.
The world was to be destroyed by terrible flooding on this date, claimed this leader of a UFO cult called Brotherhood of the Seven Rays. The fallout of the group after the prediction failed was the basis for the 1956 book When Prophecy Fails.
The second prophet of the Branch Davidians predicted the apocalypse foretold in the Book of Revelation would proceed on this date. The failure of the prophecy led to the split of the sect into several subsects, the most prominent led by Benjamin and Lois Roden.
This day would mark the beginning of the third woe of the Apocalypse, during which the southeastern US would be destroyed by a Soviet nuclear attack, according to this UFO prophet, who claimed to have channeled an alien named Ashtar.
The Brahma Kumaris founder, Lekhraj Kirpalani, has made a number of predictions of a global Armageddon which the religion believes it will inspire, internally calling it "Destruction". During Destruction, Brahma Kumari leaders teach the world will be purified, all of the rest of humanity killed by nuclear or civil wars and natural disasters which will include the sinking of all other continents except India.
Jensen predicted in 1978 that there would be a nuclear disaster in 1980, followed by two decades of conflict, culminating in God's Kingdom being established on Earth.
The founder of Calvary Chapel predicted that the generation of 1948 would be the last generation and the world would end by 1981. Smith said that he "could be wrong" but added that his prediction was "a deep conviction in my heart, and all my plans are predicated upon that belief."
Full-page adverts in many newspapers dated 24 and 25 April 1982 stated that "The Christ is Now Here!" and that he would make himself known "within the next two months".
Gribbin, an astrophysicist, co-authored the 1974 book The Jupiter Effect which predicted that combined gravitational forces of aligned planets would create a number of catastrophes, including a great earthquake on the San Andreas Fault.
Creme took out an ad in the Los Angeles Times stating that the Second Coming would occur in June 1982, and the Maitreya announced it on worldwide television.
Argüelles claimed that Armageddon would happen unless 144,000 people gathered in certain places across the world in order to "resonate in harmony" on this day.
Whisenant predicted in his book 88 Reasons Why the Rapture Could Be in 1988 that the Rapture of the Christian Church would occur between 11 and 13 September 1988. After this prediction failed to come true, Whisenant revised his prediction date to 3 October.
Prophet predicted a nuclear war would start on this day, and the world would end 12 years later, leading her followers to stockpile a shelter with supplies and weapons. After Prophet's prediction did not come to pass, she was later diagnosed with epilepsy and Alzheimer's disease.
This Bahá'í sect leader predicted that New York City would be destroyed by a nuclear bomb on 23 March 1994, and the Battle of Armageddon would take place 40 days later.
Applewhite, leader of the Heaven's Gate cult, claimed that a spacecraft was trailing the Comet Hale-Bopp and argued that suicide was "the only way to evacuate this Earth" so that the cult members' souls could board the supposed craft and be taken to another "level of existence above human". Applewhite and 38 of his followers committed mass suicide.
A quatrain by Nostradamus that stated the "King of Terror" would come from the sky in "1999 and seven months" was frequently interpreted as a prediction of doomsday in July 1999.
Berg, dean of the worldwide Kabbalah Centre, stated that on this date "a ball of fire will descend, destroying almost all of mankind, all vegetation, all forms of life."
This linguist predicted the end would occur in this year. He did not predict how it would happen, stating that it might involve nuclear devastation, asteroid impact, pole shift or other Earth changes.
During and before 1999, there were widespread predictions of a Y2K computer bug that would crash many computers at midnight of 31 December 1999, causing malfunctions that would lead to major catastrophes worldwide, and that society would cease to function.
An estimated 778 followers of this Ugandan religious movement perished in a devastating fire and a series of poisonings and killings that were either a group suicide or an orchestrated mass murder by group leaders after their predictions of the apocalypse failed to come about.
These Christian authors stated that the Y2K bug would trigger global economic chaos, which the Antichrist would use to rise to power. As the date approached, however, they changed their minds.
Lieder originally predicted the date for the Nibiru collision as May 2003. According to her website, aliens in the Zeta Reticuli star system told her through messages via a brain implant of a planet which would enter our solar system and cause a pole shift on Earth that would destroy most of humanity.
This Japanese cult, which carried out the Tokyo subway sarin attack in 1995, predicted the world would be destroyed by a nuclear war between 30 October and 29 November 2003.
Yisrayl Hawkins, pastor and overseer of The House of Yahweh, predicted in his February 2006 newsletter that a nuclear war would begin on 12 September 2006.
Camping predicted that the Rapture and devastating earthquakes would occur on this date, with God taking approximately 3% of the world's population into Heaven, and that the end of the world would occur five months later on 21 October.
Weinland, the founder of the Church of God Preparing for the Kingdom of God, stated Jesus would return on this day. After his prophecy failed to come true he changed the date to 27 May 2012.
When his original prediction failed to come true five months earlier, Camping revised his prediction by saying that on 21 May a "Spiritual Judgment" had taken place, and both the physical Rapture and the end of the world would occur on 21 October 2011.
There were fears amongst the public that Comet Elenin travelling almost directly between Earth and the Sun would cause disturbances to the Earth's crust, causing massive earthquakes and tidal waves. Others predicted that Elenin would collide with Earth on 16 October. Scientists tried to calm fears by stating that none of these events were possible.
This cult leader predicted that the world's governments and economies would fail on this day, and that he and his followers would undergo a transformation that would allow them to fly and walk through walls.
The 2012 phenomenon predicted the world would end at the end of the 13th b'ak'tun. The Earth would be destroyed by an asteroid, Nibiru, or some other interplanetary object; an alien invasion; or a supernova. Mayanist scholars stated that no extant classic Maya accounts forecasted impending doom, and that the idea that the Long Count calendar ends in 2012 misrepresented Maya history and culture. Scientists from NASA, along with expert archeologists, stated that none of those events was possible.
Rasputin, a Russian mystic who died in 1916, prophesied a storm would take place on this day where fire would destroy most life on land and Jesus would come back to Earth to comfort those in distress.
The so-called blood moon prophecy, first predicted by Mark Blitz in 2008 and then by John Hagee in 2014. These Christian ministers claim that the tetrad in 2014 and 2015 may represent the beginning of the Messianicend times.
This American pastor based his prediction on the prior suggestion that Jesus would return in 1988, i.e., within one biblical generation (40 years) of the founding of Israel in 1948. Beshore argued that the prediction was correct, but that the definition of a biblical generation was incorrect and was actually 70–80 years, placing the second coming of Jesus between 2018 and 2028 and the rapture by 2021 at the latest.
In accordance with the predictions in Riaz Ahmed Gohar Shahi's book The Religion of God, the spiritual organisation MFI believes that the world will end when an asteroid collides with Earth in 2026.
In an unpublished manuscript, Newton made a reference to the year 2060, which in 2004 was falsely reported by mainstream media as a date for the end of the world. Newton was actually predicting a date before which the world would definitely not end, in order to calm people's fears about the apocalypse.
According to an opinion about the Talmud in mainstream Orthodox Judaism, the Messiah will come within 6,000 years of the creation of Adam, and the world may be destroyed 1,000 years later. This would put the beginning of the period of desolation in 2239 CE and the end of the period of desolation in 3239 CE.
In approximately 300,000 years, WR 104, a triple star, is expected to explode in a supernova. It has been suggested that it may produce a gamma ray burst that could pose a threat to life on Earth should its poles be aligned 12° or lower towards Earth. However spectroscopic observations now strongly suggest that it is tilted at an angle of 30°-40° and so any gamma ray burst should not hit Earth.
According to a journal article by Bostrom, an asteroid impacting with Earth would need to be larger than 1 km in diameter to render humans extinct. It is estimated that such an asteroid hits Earth about every 500,000 years.
Within the next 1 million years, Earth will likely have undergone a supervolcanic eruption large enough to erupt 3,200 km3 of magma, an event comparable to the Toba supereruption 75,000 years ago.
A hypothetical dark companion star, Nemesis, with an eccentric orbit of about 27 million years, triggers periodic mass extinctions by perturbing objects beyond Neptune into hitting the Earth. The K–Pg extinction which killed dinosaurs 66 million years ago is used as an anchor point in time for the cycle. Arguments against say it is a statistical artifact and sky surveys have failed to find it.
It is estimated that every 100 million years, Earth will be hit by an asteroid about 10–15 km in diameter, comparable in size to the one that triggered the K–Pg extinction which killed dinosaurs 66 million years ago.
By this time it is estimated that a gamma ray burst, or massive, hyperenergetic supernova, would have occurred within 6,500 light-years of Earth; close enough for its rays to affect Earth's ozone layer and potentially trigger a mass extinction, assuming the hypothesis is correct that a previous such explosion triggered the Ordovician–Silurian extinction event. However, the supernova would have to be precisely oriented relative to Earth to have any negative effect.
The level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will drop dramatically, making photosynthesis in plants impossible. The lack of oxygen-producing plants will cause free oxygen in the atmosphere to disappear, making animal life impossible.
The estimated end of the Sun's current phase of development, after which it will swell into a red giant, either scorching or swallowing Earth, will occur around five billion years from now. However, as the Sun grows gradually hotter (over millions of years), Earth may become too hot for life as early as one billion years from now.
Earth and the Moon will be most likely be destroyed by falling into the Sun, just before the Sun reaches the largest of its red giant phase when it will be 256 times larger than it is now. Before the final collision, the Moon possibly spirals below Earth's Roche limit, breaking into a ring of debris, most of which falls to Earth's surface.
^ abcCole-Turner, Ronald (2012). "The singularity and the rapture: Transhumanist and popular Christian views of the future". Zygon. 47 (4): 777–796. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9744.2012.01293.x.
^Howard, G. M. (1976). "Men, Motives, and Misunderstandings: A New Look at the Morrisite War of 1862". Utah Historical Quarterly. 44 (2): 112–132. doi:10.2307/45059573. JSTOR45059573.
Festinger, Leon (1956). When Prophecy Fails: A Social and Psychological Study of A Modern Group that Predicted the Destruction of the World. Harper-Torchbooks. ISBN978-0-06-131132-1.
Franz, Raymond (2002). Crisis of Conscience. Commentary Press. ISBN978-0-914675-23-5.
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