2019 Castilian-Manchegan regional election

2019 Castilian-Manchegan regional election
← 2015 26 May 2019 2023 →
All 33 seats in the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha
17 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered1,572,308 Red arrow down0.3%
Turnout1,091,900 (69.4%)
Red arrow down2.1 pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Emiliano García-Page Francisco Núñez Carmen Picazo
Party PSOE PP Cs
Leader since 26 February 2012 7 October 2018 9 March 2019
Leader's seat Toledo Albacete Albacete
Last election 15 seats, 36.1% 16 seats, 37.5% 0 seats, 8.6%
Seats won 19 10 4
Seat change Green arrow up4 Red arrow down6 Green arrow up4
Popular vote 476,469 308,184 122,955
Percentage 44.1% 28.5% 11.4%
Swing Green arrow up8.0 pp Red arrow down9.0 pp Green arrow up2.9 pp
Constituency results map for the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha
President before election

Emiliano García-Page
PSOE

Elected President

Emiliano García-Page
PSOE

The 2019 Castilian-Manchegan regional election was held on Sunday, 26 May 2019, to elect the 10th Cortes of the autonomous community of Castilla–La Mancha. All 33 seats in the Cortes were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in eleven other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain, as well as the 2019 European Parliament election.

Overview

Electoral system

The Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha were the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Castilla–La Mancha, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Castilian-Manchegan Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1] Voting for the Cortes was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Castilla–La Mancha and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Castilian-Manchegan people abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[2]

The 33 members of the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Albacete, Ciudad Real, Cuenca, Guadalajara and Toledo, with each being allocated an initial minimum of three seats and the remaining 18 being distributed in proportion to their populations.[1][3]

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Cortes constituency was entitled the following seats:[4]

Seats Constituencies
9 Toledo
7 Albacete, Ciudad Real
5 Cuenca, Guadalajara

In smaller constituencies, the use of the electoral method resulted in an effective threshold based on the district magnitude and the distribution of votes among candidacies.[5]

Election date

The term of the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha expired four years after the date of their previous election. Elections to the Cortes were fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 24 May 2015, setting the election date for the Cortes on Sunday, 26 May 2019.[1][3][6]

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances would not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remained of their four-year terms. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the candidate from the party with the highest number of seats was to be deemed automatically elected.[1]

The election to the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha were officially triggered on 2 April 2019 after the publication of the election decree in the Official Journal of Castilla–La Mancha (DOCM), scheduling for the chamber to convene on 19 June.[4]

Parliamentary composition

The tables below show the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Cortes at the time of dissolution.[7]

Parliamentary composition in April 2019
Groups Parties Legislators
Seats Total
People's Parliamentary Group PP 16 16
Socialist Parliamentary Group PSOE 15 15
We Can Parliamentary Group Podemos 2 2

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[3][6]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy Parties and
alliances 		Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Gov. Ref.
Votes (%) Seats
PP
List
 Francisco Núñez Conservatism
Christian democracy 		37.49% 16 ☒N [8]
PSOE
List
 Emiliano García-Page Social democracy 36.11% 15 checkY [9]
Podemos–
IU–Equo
List
 José García Molina Left-wing populism
Direct democracy
Democratic socialism 		12.85%[a] 2 checkY [10]
[11]
Cs
List
 Carmen Picazo Liberalism 8.64% 0 ☒N [12]
Vox
List
 Daniel Arias Vegas Right-wing populism
Ultranationalism
National conservatism 		0.48% 0 ☒N [13]

Campaign

Election debates

2019 Castilian-Manchegan regional election debates
Date Organisers Moderator(s)     P  Present[b]  
PP PSOE UP Cs Vox Audience Ref.
20 May CMM Sonia Trigueros P
Núñez 		P
Page 		P
Molina 		P
Picazo 		P
Arias 		9.2%
(68,000) 		[14]
[15]

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 17 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls   Exit poll

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 26 May 2019 Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha election results →
Parties and alliances Popular vote Seats
Votes % ±pp Total +/−
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) 476,469 44.10 +7.99 19 +4
People's Party (PP) 308,184 28.53 –8.96 10 –6
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (Cs) 122,955 11.38 +2.74 4 +4
Vox (Vox) 75,813 7.02 +6.54 0 ±0
United We Can–United Left–Equo CLM (Podemos–IU–Equo)1 74,777 6.92 –5.93 0 –2
Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA) 8,662 0.80 –0.01 0 ±0
Castilian Party–Commoners' Land (PCAS–TC) 1,411 0.13 –0.01 0 ±0
Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE) 1,248 0.12 +0.03 0 ±0
Traditions and Rural World (ANATUR–UDEC) 1,244 0.12 New 0 ±0
For a Fairer World (PUM+J) 728 0.07 New 0 ±0
Together We Win (JG) 149 0.01 New 0 ±0
Blank ballots 8,754 0.81 –0.94
Total 1,080,394 33 ±0
Valid votes 1,080,394 98.95 +1.13
Invalid votes 11,506 1.05 –1.13
Votes cast / turnout 1,091,900 69.45 –2.05
Abstentions 480,408 30.55 +2.05
Registered voters 1,572,308
Sources[7][16]
Footnotes:
Popular vote
PSOE
 
 44.10%
PP
 
 28.53%
Cs
 
 11.38%
Vox
 
 7.02%
Unidas Podemos
 
 6.92%
Others
 
 1.24%
Blank ballots
 
 0.81%
Seats
PSOE
 
 57.58%
PP
 
 30.30%
Cs
 
 12.12%

Distribution by constituency

Constituency PSOE PP Cs
% S % S % S
Albacete 41.9 4 29.1 2 13.2 1
Ciudad Real 46.3 4 28.6 2 11.3 1
Cuenca 46.4 3 32.8 2 7.9 −
Guadalajara 39.6 3 24.3 1 14.4 1
Toledo 44.6 5 28.3 3 10.5 1
Total 44.1 19 28.5 10 11.4 4
Sources[7][16]

Aftermath

Further information: Second government of Emiliano García-Page
Investiture
Emiliano García-Page (PSOE)
Ballot → 3 July 2019
Required majority → 17 out of 33 checkY
Yes
19 / 33
No
  • • PP (10)
  • • Cs (4)
14 / 33
Abstentions
0 / 33
Absentees
0 / 33
Sources[7][17]

Notes

  1. ^ Results for Podemos (9.75%, 2 seats) and Let's Win Castilla–La Mancha–The Greens–United Left (3.10%, 0 seats) in the 2015 election.
  2. ^ Denotes a main invitee attending the event.
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj ak al am an ao ap aq ar as at au av Within Unidas Podemos.

References

Opinion poll sources
  1. ^ "El PSOE ganaría las elecciones a la Junta con un 43% y entre 16 y 18 escaños, según el sondeo de GFK para CMM". CMM (in Spanish). 26 May 2019.
  2. ^ "El PSOE ganaría las elecciones en Castilla-La Mancha y roza la mayoría absoluta, según un sondeo". eldiario.es (in Spanish). 26 May 2019.
  3. ^ "#emojiPanel Castilla-La Mancha (24M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 24 May 2019.
  4. ^ "#emojiPanel Castilla-La Mancha (23M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 23 May 2019.
  5. ^ "#emojiPanel Castilla-La Mancha (22M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 22 May 2019.
  6. ^ "#emojiPanel Castilla-La Mancha (21M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 21 May 2019.
  7. ^ "El PSOE gana en Madrid, pero la suma de PP, Cs y Vox lo aleja de Sol". La Razón (in Spanish). 20 May 2019.
  8. ^ "Resultados por comunidades. Encuesta mayo 2019" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 20 May 2019. Archived from the original (PDF) on 20 May 2019. Retrieved 20 May 2019.
  9. ^ "Encuesta electoral: Ajustada batalla entre bloques el 26-M". La Razón (in Spanish). 20 May 2019.
  10. ^ "#emojiPanel Castilla-La Mancha (20M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 20 May 2019.
  11. ^ "#electoPanel Castilla-La Mancha (18M): resurge el bipartidismo, con el PSOE disparado". Electomanía (in Spanish). 18 May 2019.
  12. ^ "#electoPanel Castilla-La Mancha (15M): Cs decidiría el próximo Gobierno". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 May 2019.
  13. ^ "#electoPanel Castilla-La Mancha (12M): el PP sube y pone distancia con Ciudadanos". Electomanía (in Spanish). 12 May 2019.
  14. ^ "PP, Ciudadanos y VOX podrían sumar mayoría absoluta en Castilla-La Mancha". El Digital de Albacete (in Spanish). 12 May 2019.
  15. ^ "#electoPanel Castilla-La Mancha (9M): el PP roba escaños a Vox". Electomanía (in Spanish). 9 May 2019.
  16. ^ "#electoPanel Castilla-La Mancha (6M): subidón de Ciudadanos, ventaja para Page (PSOE)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 6 May 2019.
  17. ^ "Estimaciones de voto en Comunidades Autónomas y grandes ciudades (Estudio nº 3245. Marzo-abril 2019)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 9 May 2019.
  18. ^ "ElectoPanel autonómico (12A): las mayorías siguen en el aire". Electomanía (in Spanish). 12 April 2019.
  19. ^ "ElectoPanel autonómicas (3A): Ciudadanos decidirá el bloque ganador en la mayoría de CCAA". Electomanía (in Spanish). 3 April 2019.
  20. ^ "ElectoPanel autonómico (27M). Semana de retrocesos para Vox". Electomanía (in Spanish). 27 March 2019.
  21. ^ "ElectoPanel Autonómico (20M): 'Navarra Suma' (PP-Cs-UPN) no suma para recuperar el Gobierno Foral". Electomanía (in Spanish). 20 March 2019.
  22. ^ "ElectoPanel autonómico 13M: el PSOE es el más votado, pero la derecha suma en la mayoría de CCAA". Electomanía (in Spanish). 13 March 2019.
  23. ^ "ElectoPanel autonómico: la irrupción de Vox en casi todas las CCAA posibilitaría a la derecha gobernar la mayoría de ellas". Electomanía (in Spanish). 6 March 2019.
  24. ^ "García-Page roza la mayoría absoluta, pero bajo la amenaza de Vox". El Mundo (in Spanish). 8 January 2019.
  25. ^ "Una alianza entre PP y Ciudadanos dejaría a García-Page fuera del Gobierno de Castilla–La Mancha". La Razón (in Spanish). 30 May 2018.
  26. ^ "Estimación Marzo 2018. Castilla–La Mancha. Autonómicas 2019". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 5 April 2018.
  27. ^ "Castilla–La Mancha. Elecciones autonómicas. Sondeo SyM Consulting. Marzo 2018". Electograph (in Spanish). 5 April 2018.
  28. ^ "García-Page ganaría hoy al PP de Cospedal con 9 puntos de ventaja en Castilla–La Mancha". El Mundo (in Spanish). 9 April 2018.
  29. ^ "Un sondeo del PSOE da a García-Page cuatro puntos de ventaja sobre Cospedal en Castilla–La Mancha". El Mundo (in Spanish). 27 July 2017.
  30. ^ "Euforia en el PSOE de CLM tras la encuesta que le da ganador a Page si hoy hubiera elecciones". Noticias Ciudad Real (in Spanish). 27 July 2017.
  31. ^ "El PSOE ganaría hoy las elecciones en Castilla‑La Mancha sacando casi cuatro puntos de ventaja al PP". Periódico CLM (in Spanish). 27 July 2017.
Other
  1. ^ a b c d Ley Orgánica 9/1982, de 10 de agosto, de Estatuto de Autonomía de Castilla-La Mancha. Boletín Oficial del Estado (Organic Law 9) (in Spanish). 10 August 1982. Retrieved 15 September 2017.
  2. ^ Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  3. ^ a b c Ley 5/1986, de 23 de diciembre, electoral de Castilla-La Mancha. Boletín Oficial del Estado (Law 5) (in Spanish). 23 December 1986. Retrieved 15 September 2017.
  4. ^ a b "Decreto 21/2019, de 1 de abril, del Presidente de la Junta de Comunidades, por el que se convocan elecciones a Cortes de Castilla-La Mancha". Diario Oficial de Castilla-La Mancha (in Spanish) (65): 10201–10216. 2 April 2019. ISSN 1575-0051.
  5. ^ Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Archived from the original on 30 July 2017. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
  6. ^ a b Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General. Boletín Oficial del Estado (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 19 June 1985. Retrieved 30 January 2020.
  7. ^ a b c d "Elecciones a las Cortes de Castilla - La Mancha (1983 - 2019)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 15 August 2019.
  8. ^ "Francisco Núñez, nuevo presidente del PP C-LM tras ser refrendado por el 92,8% de los votos de los compromisarios". Europa Press (in Spanish). 7 October 2018. Retrieved 27 January 2019.
  9. ^ "Emiliano García-Page, designado candidato a la Presidencia de la Junta por aclamación". eldiario.es (in Spanish). 21 July 2018. Retrieved 27 January 2019.
  10. ^ "García Molina gana sin sorpresas las primarias de Podemos y será el candidato a la Junta". eldiario.es (in Spanish). 27 November 2018. Retrieved 27 January 2019.
  11. ^ "Podemos e IU alcanzan un acuerdo para confluir en Castilla-La Mancha con José García Molina como candidato a la Junta". Periódico CLM (in Spanish). 11 March 2019. Retrieved 12 April 2019.
  12. ^ "Carmen Picazo, confirmada como candidata de Ciudadanos a la Presidencia de Castilla-La Mancha". eldiario.es (in Spanish). 9 March 2019. Retrieved 21 March 2019.
  13. ^ "Vox elige a su candidato para presidir la Junta de Comunidades de Castilla-La Mancha". El Digital Castilla-La Mancha (in Spanish). 30 April 2019. Retrieved 25 May 2019.
  14. ^ "Debate histórico este lunes entre los cinco candidatos a la Presidencia de Castilla-La Mancha". El Español (in Spanish). 19 May 2019. Retrieved 22 May 2023.
  15. ^ García Fermosel, Elena (21 May 2019). "CMM lidera la audiencia de los debates electorales, por delante de otras seis autonómicas". CMM Noticias (in Spanish). Retrieved 22 May 2023.
  16. ^ a b "Cortes of Castile-La Mancha election results, 26 May 2019" (PDF). www.juntaelectoralcentral.es (in Spanish). Electoral Commission of Castilla–La Mancha. 14 June 2019. Retrieved 29 November 2019.
  17. ^ "García-Page, presidente de Castilla-La Mancha con la mayoría absoluta de PSOE". eldiario.es (in Spanish). 3 July 2019. Retrieved 3 July 2019.