2012 Galician regional election

2012 Galician regional election
← 2009 21 October 2012 2016 →
All 75 seats in the Parliament of Galicia
38 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered2,697,717 Green arrow up1.9%
Turnout1,481,379 (54.9%)
Red arrow down9.5 pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo Pachi Vázquez Xosé Manuel Beiras
Party PP PSdeG–PSOE AGE
Leader since 15 January 2006 25 April 2009 7 September 2012
Leader's seat Pontevedra Ourense A Coruña
Last election 38 seats, 46.7% 25 seats, 31.0% 0 seats, 1.0%[a]
Seats won 41 18 9
Seat change Green arrow up3 Red arrow down7 Green arrow up9
Popular vote 661,281 297,584 200,828
Percentage 45.8% 20.6% 13.9%
Swing Red arrow down0.9 pp Red arrow down10.4 pp Green arrow up12.9 pp
  Fourth party
 
Leader Francisco Jorquera
Party BNG
Leader since 29 January 2012
Leader's seat A Coruña
Last election 12 seats, 16.0%
Seats won 7
Seat change Red arrow down5
Popular vote 146,027
Percentage 10.1%
Swing Red arrow down5.9 pp
Constituency results map for the Parliament of Galicia
President before election

Alberto Núñez Feijóo
PP

Elected President

Alberto Núñez Feijóo
PP

The 2012 Galician regional election was held on Sunday, 21 October 2012, to elect the 9th Parliament of the autonomous community of Galicia. All 75 seats in the Parliament were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with a regional election in the Basque Country.

President Alberto Núñez Feijóo announced the election following Lehendakari Patxi López's decision to schedule a Basque snap regional election for 21 October 2012.[1][2] The vote was seen as an electoral test on the economic policy of Mariano Rajoy's government, which had been elected at the 2011 Spanish general election and had undertaken harsh spending cuts which had seen its popularity ratings plummet in opinion polls.[3] Feijóo aimed at securing reelection for a second term in office at the helm of the regional People's Party (PP), for which he needed the party to retain the absolute majority it commanded in parliament to prevent an alternative coalition being formed between the Socialists' Party of Galicia (PSdeG–PSOE) and the Galician Nationalist Bloc (BNG), similarly to the one in power in the 2005–2009 period.[4][5]

The election resulted in an increased majority for Feijóo, as support for both the PSdeG and BNG plunged amid internal party infighting and disillusion from left-from-centre voters.[6] The Galician Left Alternative (AGE) alliance, headed by former BNG leader Xosé Manuel Beiras and comprising United Left (EU) and Beiras's newly created party Anova, obtained a surprise result with 200,000 votes and 14% of the share, scoring in third place regionally and displacing the PSdeG in second place in the cities of A Coruña, Ferrol and Santiago de Compostela.[7] The fragmentation of the left-wing vote and the high abstention rate—with slightly over 45% of the electorate not casting a ballot—favoured the PP enlarging its majority despite seeing a drop of over 100,000 ballots from 2009.[8]

Overview

Electoral system

The Parliament of Galicia was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Galicia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Galician Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[9] Voting for the Parliament was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Galicia and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Amendments to the electoral law in 2011 required for Galicians abroad to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[10]

The 75 members of the Parliament of Galicia were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of five percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of A Coruña, Lugo, Ourense and Pontevedra, with each being allocated an initial minimum of 10 seats and the remaining 35 being distributed in proportion to their populations.[9][11]

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Parliament constituency was entitled the following seats:

Seats Constituencies
24 A Coruña
22 Pontevedra
15 Lugo
14 Ourense

In smaller constituencies, the use of the electoral method resulted in an effective threshold based on the district magnitude and the distribution of votes among candidacies.[12]

Election date

The term of the Parliament of Galicia expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Journal of Galicia (DOG), with election day taking place between the fifty-fourth and the sixtieth day from publication. The previous election was held on 1 March 2009, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 1 March 2013. The election decree was required to be published in the DOG no later than 5 February 2013, with the election taking place up to the sixtieth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Saturday, 6 April 2013.[9][11]

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Galicia and call a snap election, provided that it did not occur before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional President within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[13]

Speculation on the 2013 Galician election being held ahead of schedule emerged after opinion polls at the end of 2011—shortly after the 2011 Spanish general election which saw a landslide victory for the People's Party (PP) across Spain—pointed to an "historic absolute majority" for the party in the region.[14][15] In February 2012, Galician president Alberto Núñez Feijóo had ruled out a snap election "before the summer",[16][17] a decision that he reiterated after the Andalusian regional election on 25 March had seen the PP losing over 400,000 votes in comparison to the party's 2011 general election results in the region.[18] The media pointed out that Feijóo could be considering an autumn election instead,[19][20] in order to prevent further spending cuts from the national PP government under Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy from affecting his image,[21][22] On 21 August 2012, Lehendakari Patxi López's announcement of a snap Basque election for 21 October left Feijóo little room for an autumn election,[1][23] and one week later he called a snap election in Galicia to be held concurrently with the Basque poll.[2][24]

Background

The election was held amid a climate of falling popularity for the Mariano Rajoy's government, with the electoral campaign being focused on the austerity measures and spending cuts approved by the national PP government.[3] In July 2012, a €65 billion-worth spending cut and a VAT rise from 18% to 21% was introduced, with such measures being heavily criticised because they were a breach of key campaign promises made by the PP in the party's election manifesto.[25][26] The PP vote share had plummeted in national opinion polls from 40% to 34% as a result, raising fears within Núñez Feijóo's regional government on the possibility of losing their overall majority in the Galician regional election; this had seen an attempt to reform the regional electoral law by decreasing the size of the Parliament of Galicia from 75 to 61, under a seat apportionment that was seen as benefitting the PP's rural strongholds.[27][28] The reform did not come to pass as a result of the snap poll and a lack of consensus with opposition parties for its approval.[29]

The Galician Nationalist Bloc (BNG) had split following its 13th national assembly in January 2012 over dissatisfaction with the bloc's political line and the control exercised by the Galician People's Union (UPG).[30] Among the splitting forces were Xosé Manuel Beiras's Encontro Irmandiño (EI),[31] Nationalist Left (EN),[32] Máis Galiza (+G),[33] the Galician Nationalist Party–Galicianist Party (PNG–PG),[34] the Galician Workers' Front (FOGA) and the Galician Socialist Space (ESG),[35] whereas Inzar and the Socialist Collective chose to dissolve.[36] The split parties would rally around a broad umbrella dubbed as the Novo Proxecto Común (English: "New Common Project"),[37] which would provide the basis for the emergence of two new political forces: EI and the FOGA would join other political forces—such as the Galician People's Front (FPG) and Movemento pola Base (MpB)—into the new Renewal–Nationalist Brotherhood (Anova) party,[38][39] while EN would merge with +G, ESG, PNG–PG, Terra Galega, Espazo Ecosocialista Galego and Acción Galega into the newly established Commitment to Galicia (CxG).[40][41]

Parliamentary composition

The Parliament of Galicia was officially dissolved on 28 August 2012, after the publication of the dissolution decree in the Official Journal of Galicia.[42] The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of dissolution.[43]

Parliamentary composition in August 2012[44]
Groups Parties Legislators
Seats Total
People's Parliamentary Group of Galicia PP 38 38
Socialists' Parliamentary Group of Galicia PSdeG–PSOE 25 25
Galician Nationalist Bloc's Parliamentary Group BNG 12 12

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[11][45]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy Parties and
alliances 		Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Gov. Ref.
Votes (%) Seats
PP
List
 Alberto Núñez Feijóo Conservatism
Christian democracy 		46.68% 38 checkY [46]
PSdeG–
PSOE
List
 Pachi Vázquez Social democracy 31.02% 25 ☒N [47]
BNG
List
 Francisco Jorquera Galician nationalism
Left-wing nationalism
Socialism 		16.01% 12 ☒N [48]
AGE
List
 Xosé Manuel Beiras Galician nationalism
Democratic socialism 		0.97%[a] 0 ☒N [49]
[50]
[51]
[52]

Election debates

2012 Galician regional election debates
Date Organisers Moderator(s)     P  Present[b]    NI  Not invited 
PP PSdeG BNG Audience Ref.
8 October TVG Marga Pazos P
Feijóo 		P
Vázquez 		NI 31.3%
(362,000) 		[53]
[54]
9 October TVG Marga Pazos NI P
Vázquez 		P
Jorquera 		19.5%
(221,000) 		[55]
[56]
10 October TVG Marga Pazos P
Feijóo 		NI P
Jorquera 		24.9%
(289.000) 		[57]

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 38 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Galicia.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls   Exit poll

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Regional Government of Galicia.

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 21 October 2012 Parliament of Galicia election results →
Parties and alliances Popular vote Seats
Votes % ±pp Total +/−
People's Party (PP) 661,281 45.80 –0.88 41 +3
Socialists' Party of Galicia (PSdeG–PSOE) 297,584 20.61 –10.41 18 –7
Galician Left Alternative (United Left–Anova) (AGE)1 200,828 13.91 +12.94 9 +9
Galician Nationalist Bloc (BNG) 146,027 10.11 –5.90 7 –5
Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) 21,335 1.48 +0.07 0 ±0
Blank Seats (EB) 17,141 1.19 New 0 ±0
Civil Society and Democracy (SCD) 15,990 1.11 New 0 ±0
Commitment to Galicia (CxG)2 14,586 1.01 –0.10 0 ±0
Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA) 8,041 0.56 New 0 ±0
Ourensan Democracy (DO) 4,245 0.29 +0.23 0 ±0
Land Party (PT) 3,131 0.22 New 0 ±0
Communists of Galicia (PCPE–CdG) 1,664 0.12 New 0 ±0
Communist Unification of Spain (UCE) 1,556 0.11 New 0 ±0
Pirates of Galicia (Pirata.gal) 1,551 0.11 New 0 ±0
Liberal Democratic Centre (CDL) 1,455 0.10 New 0 ±0
Spanish Phalanx of the CNSO (FE–JONS) 1,352 0.09 +0.05 0 ±0
Humanist Party (PH) 1,340 0.09 +0.02 0 ±0
For a Fairer World (PUM+J) 1,329 0.09 –0.12 0 ±0
Corunnan Union (UC) 1,172 0.08 New 0 ±0
XXI Convergence (C.XXI) 1,072 0.07 New 0 ±0
Hartos.org (Hartos.org) 868 0.06 New 0 ±0
Internationalist Solidarity and Self-Management (SAIn) 489 0.03 +0.01 0 ±0
Let us Give the Change (DeC) 432 0.03 New 0 ±0
Social Democratic Party of Law (SDD) 412 0.03 +0.01 0 ±0
Centre Democratic Action of Galicia (ADCG) 360 0.02 New 0 ±0
Community Integration Party (PYC) 159 0.01 New 0 ±0
Blank ballots 38,448 2.66 +1.00
Total 1,443,848 75 ±0
Valid votes 1,443,848 97.47 –1.64
Invalid votes 37,531 2.53 +1.64
Votes cast / turnout 1,481,379 54.91 –9.52
Abstentions 1,216,338 45.09 +9.52
Registered voters 2,697,717
Sources[43][58]
Footnotes:
Popular vote
PP
 
 45.80%
PSdeG–PSOE
 
 20.61%
AGE
 
 13.91%
BNG
 
 10.11%
UPyD
 
 1.48%
EB
 
 1.19%
SCD
 
 1.11%
CxG
 
 1.01%
Others
 
 2.12%
Blank ballots
 
 2.66%
Seats
PP
 
 54.67%
PSdeG–PSOE
 
 24.00%
AGE
 
 12.00%
BNG
 
 9.33%

Distribution by constituency

Constituency PP PSdeG AGE BNG
% S % S % S % S
A Coruña 45.4 13 18.8 5 16.6 4 9.6 2
Lugo 51.5 9 22.7 4 10.3 1 8.7 1
Ourense 49.2 8 23.7 4 7.8 1 8.5 1
Pontevedra 42.8 11 20.8 5 14.4 3 11.9 3
Total 45.8 41 20.6 18 13.9 9 10.1 7
Sources[43][58]

Aftermath

Investiture
Alberto Núñez Feijóo (PP)
Ballot → 29 November 2012
Required majority → 38 out of 75 checkY
Yes
  • • PP (41)
41 / 75
No
34 / 75
Abstentions
0 / 75
Absentees
0 / 75
Sources[43]

Notes

  1. ^ a b Results for EU–IU in the 2009 election.
  2. ^ Denotes a main invitee attending the event.
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj ak al am an ao ap aq ar as at au av aw ax ay az ba bb bc bd be bf bg bh bi bj bk bl bm bn bo bp Within AGE.
  4. ^ a b Within Anova.

References

Opinion poll sources
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  2. ^ "Spanish exit polls: Sampling error or nonresponse bias?" (PDF). Revista Internacional de Sociología. 23 August 2016.
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o "Instituto Sondaxe. Tracking electoral" (PDF). Sondaxe (in Spanish). 21 October 2012.
  4. ^ "El PP camino de los 44 escaños (según ASCA)". Galicia Diario (in Spanish). 15 October 2012.
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  6. ^ "Los indecisos y el cambio de voto dejan plenamente abierto el resultado del 21-O". La Región (in Spanish). 15 October 2012. Archived from the original on 18 October 2012.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
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  19. ^ "El PSdeG se recupera y Beiras pierde fuelle". La Voz de Galicia (in Spanish). 7 October 2012.
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  21. ^ "Feijóo podría aumentar su mayoría absoluta frente al descalabro del PSOE". ABC (in Spanish). 7 October 2012.
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  26. ^ "El PP sigue al borde de repetir mayoría absoluta en Galicia". La Razón (in Spanish). 17 September 2012. Archived from the original on 20 October 2012.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
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  30. ^ "La Xunta está en el aire". Galicia Diario (in Spanish). 10 May 2012.
  31. ^ "A maioría absoluta do PP non está clara, segundo un par de enquisas". El Progreso (in Galician). 14 May 2012.
  32. ^ "El PP lograría un escaño más en todas las provincias salvo en Pontevedra". La Voz de Galicia (in Spanish). 29 April 2012.
  33. ^ "El PP afianza con 4 escaños más su mayoría a costa de un PSOE en declive". La Voz de Galicia (in Spanish). 28 February 2011. Archived from the original on 3 March 2011.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
  34. ^ a b "Informe elecciones autonómicas. Barómetro estacional. Febrero 2011" (PDF). Sondaxe (in Spanish). 28 February 2011. Archived from the original on 10 September 2016. Retrieved 2 December 2023.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
  35. ^ "El PP reforzaría su mayoría absoluta al arrebatar dos escaños al PSdeG". La Voz de Galicia (in Spanish). 13 December 2010. Archived from the original on 16 December 2010.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
  36. ^ a b "Informe elecciones autonómicas. Barómetro estacional. Noviembre 2010" (PDF). Sondaxe (in Spanish). 13 December 2010. Archived from the original on 10 September 2016. Retrieved 2 December 2023.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
  37. ^ "PP y PSOE aplauden el barómetro que da a Feijoo dos diputados más y a los socialistas el poder urbano". La Voz de Galicia (in Spanish). 7 February 2010.
  38. ^ a b "Informe elecciones autonómicas. Barómetro estacional. Enero 2010" (PDF). Sondaxe (in Spanish). 7 February 2010. Archived from the original on 10 September 2016. Retrieved 2 December 2023.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
Other
  1. ^ a b "Feijóo apura el plazo para decidir si convoca las elecciones el 21-O". El País (in Spanish). 26 August 2012. Retrieved 14 February 2020.
  2. ^ a b "Feijóo justifica el adelanto electoral para "no crear más inestabilidad"". El País (in Spanish). 27 August 2012. Retrieved 14 February 2020.
  3. ^ a b "Rajoy se examina de sus recortes en la campaña electoral del 21-O". El País (in Spanish). 5 October 2012. Retrieved 14 February 2020.
  4. ^ "PSdeG y BNG hablan ya claramente de alcanzar un pacto de Gobierno". El Correo Gallego (in Spanish). 6 September 2012. Retrieved 14 February 2020.
  5. ^ "Elecciones gallegas 2012: "Pachi" y Jorquera coinciden en su voluntad de reeditar el bipartito". ABC (in Spanish). 6 September 2012. Retrieved 14 February 2020.
  6. ^ "Feijóo arrasa ante un PSOE hundido". El País (in Spanish). 21 October 2012. Retrieved 14 February 2020.
  7. ^ "AGE se impone en las urbes coruñesas". El País (in Spanish). 22 October 2012. Retrieved 14 February 2020.
  8. ^ "Feijóo pierde 100.000 votos pero avanza favorecido por la abstención". El País (in Spanish). 22 October 2012. Retrieved 14 February 2020.
  9. ^ a b c Ley Orgánica 1/1981, de 6 de abril, de Estatuto de Autonomía para Galicia (Organic Law 1) (in Spanish). 6 April 1981. Retrieved 8 August 2017.
  10. ^ Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  11. ^ a b c Ley 8/1985, de 13 de agosto, de elecciones al Parlamento de Galicia (Law 2) (in Spanish). 13 August 1985. Retrieved 8 August 2017.
  12. ^ Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Archived from the original on 2017-07-30. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
  13. ^ Ley 1/1983, de 22 de febrero, de normas reguladoras de la Xunta y su Presidencia (Law 1) (in Spanish). 22 February 1983. Retrieved 8 August 2017.
  14. ^ "Feijóo rechazó adelantar las elecciones a finales de 2011 pese a los buenos sondeos". El País (in Spanish). 21 May 2012. Retrieved 18 February 2020.
  15. ^ "La sombra del desgaste en Euskadi y Galicia empaña la unidad del PP". El País (in Spanish). 3 June 2012. Retrieved 18 February 2020.
  16. ^ "Feijóo asegura que no está "en su agenda" el adelanto de las autonómicas". El País (in Spanish). 1 February 2012. Retrieved 18 February 2020.
  17. ^ "Feijóo descarta adelantar las elecciones a antes del verano". El País (in Spanish). 1 February 2012. Retrieved 18 February 2020.
  18. ^ "Feijóo: "Lo de Andalucía no tiene que ver con los problemas de Galicia"". El País (in Spanish). 26 March 2012. Retrieved 18 February 2020.
  19. ^ "La fecha de las elecciones". El País (in Spanish). 24 April 2012. Retrieved 18 February 2020.
  20. ^ "Rojo asegura que Feijóo medita adelantar las elecciones". El País (in Spanish). 8 July 2012. Retrieved 18 February 2020.
  21. ^ "Génova apunta a elecciones en otoño". Faro de Vigo (in Spanish). 29 June 2012. Retrieved 18 February 2020.
  22. ^ "Feijóo comunica hoy la fecha electoral tras cerrarla con los barones del partido". El País (in Spanish). 27 August 2012. Retrieved 18 February 2020.
  23. ^ "Patxi López adelanta las elecciones vascas al 21 de octubre y critica el "torpedeo" de PP y PNV" (in Spanish). RTVE. 21 August 2012. Retrieved 9 February 2020.
  24. ^ "Feijóo adelanta las elecciones gallegas para que coincidan con las vascas". El Mundo (in Spanish). 27 August 2012. Retrieved 18 February 2020.
  25. ^ "El ajuste más duro de la democracia". El País (in Spanish). 11 July 2012. Retrieved 18 February 2020.
  26. ^ "La subida del IVA hasta el 21% busca elevar la recaudación en 7.500 millones". El País (in Spanish). 11 July 2012. Retrieved 18 February 2020.
  27. ^ "Feijóo fuerza un cambio legal para conservar su mayoría absoluta". El País (in Spanish). 24 July 2012. Retrieved 18 February 2020.
  28. ^ "Feijóo aprobará en solitario la reducción de escaños que beneficia al PP". El País (in Spanish). 26 July 2012. Retrieved 18 February 2020.
  29. ^ "La reforma electoral del PP dinamita todos los consensos parlamentarios". El País (in Spanish). 2 August 2012. Retrieved 18 February 2020.
  30. ^ "El BNG presume de "unión" tras la mayor escisión y pérdida de voto de su historia". ABC (in Spanish). 14 May 2012. Retrieved 20 February 2020.
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