The JPL Horizons 2 November 2020 nominal Earth approach was estimated as roughly 0.0028 AU (420,000 km; 260,000 mi).[2] The line of variations (LOV, uncertainty region[4]) allowed the asteroid to impact Earth[a] or pass as far away as 0.025 AU (3,700,000 km; 2,300,000 mi).[2] Its diameter of 2–4 meters makes it approximately 100–1000 times less massive than the 20-meter Chelyabinsk meteor.[b] An Earth-impact by this asteroid, assuming it is a common primitive chondrite, might rattle some windows after an airburst and/or drop pebble-sized meteorites on roof tops after dark flight.[5]
Preliminarily results are that nothing was detected via infrasound or atmospheric flash monitors.[6] The asteroid was not visually recovered.
Return
2018 VP1 has a low 3.2° orbital inclination with respect to the ecliptic plane and an Earth-MOID of only 9700 km.[2] Since the asteroid approached Earth in November 2018 and has a 2.00 year orbital period, the asteroid approached Earth again around 2 November 2020 (±3 days).[2][c] Where Earth will be on a given date is known. However, given the short observation arc and the two years since it was seen at all, the location of the asteroid along its orbit was imprecisely known.
The asteroid intersected Earth's orbit. A slight variation in the known orbit of the asteroid can cause it to be early (NEODyS solution), right on time (Sentry solution), or late (JPL solution).[d] The nominal NEODyS 1 November 2020 23:54 UT Earth approach is 0.0004 AU (60,000 km; 37,000 mi).[7] The Sentry Risk Table showed an estimated 1 in 240 chance of Earth impact on 2 November 2020 1:12 UT.[3] The nominal JPL Horizons 2 November 2020 11:33 UT Earth approach was 0.0028 AU (420,000 km; 260,000 mi) with a 3-sigma uncertainty of ± 4 million km.[2]
Line of variation (LOV) and different closest approaches
The asteroid came to opposition (opposite the Sun in the sky) at the end of May 2020 at an estimated apparent magnitude of ~31,[9] and as a moving object was much too faint for any telescope to detect. Large ground-based observatories take 10 hours to image a magnitude ~28 object. The Hubble Space Telescope needs 3 weeks of exposure time to image magnitude 31 objects. The November 2020 Earth approach was expected be hidden by the glare of the Sun due to the asteroid's low solar elongation in that time.[9]
It is not categorized as a potentially hazardous object given the estimated size is smaller than the threshold for potentially hazardous objects which are estimated at more than 140 meters in diameter.
^The JPL Small-Body Database for 2020-Nov-02 shows a minimum possible distance of 0.000039 AU (5,800 km) from the center of Earth, which is less than the 6371 km radius of Earth.
^The JPL Small-Body Database for 2020-Nov-02 shows the "Time Uncertainty" as 3_07:11 which is 3 days, 7 hours, and 11 minutes.
^ abEarth traveling at 30 km/s and with a diameter of 12,800 km, only blocked the path of single virtual impactor for about 8 minutes (30*60*8). Due to a non-Earth like orbit, the virtual asteroids can only impact Earth for about ±10 minutes centered around the virtual impactor at 2 November 2020 01:12 UT. If 2018 VP1 was not crossing Earth's orbit during that time there could be no impact.