Perdamaian nuklir

Perdamaian nuklir adalah teori hubungan internasional yang menyatakan bahwa pada saat-saat tertentu, senjata nuklir dapat menciptakan kestabilan dan mengurangi kemungkinan eskalasi krisis. Senjata nuklir konon menstabilkan keadaan dunia pada masa Perang Dingin. Saat itu Amerika Serikat dan Uni Soviet memiliki kemampuan membalas serangan kedua sehingga menggagalkan kemenangan nuklir di kedua belah pihak. Pendukung perdamaian nuklir berpendapat bahwa proliferasi nuklir terkendali mampu menciptakan kestabilan. Pengkritik perdamaian nuklir berpendapat bahwa proliferasi nuklir tidak hanya meningkatkan kemungkinan konflik nuklir antarnegara, tetpai juga meningkatkan kemungkinan bahan nuklir jatuh ke tangan kelompok non-negara jahat yang bebas dari ancaman pembalasan nuklir.

Perdebatan utama mengenai isu ini terjadi antara Kenneth Waltz, pendiri teori neorealis dalam hubungan internasional, dan Scott Sagan, pendukung teori organisasional dalam politik internasional. Waltz umumnya berpendapat bahwa "lebih banyak lebih baik" dan negara nuklir baru akan memanfaatkan kemampuan nuklirnya untuk mencegah ancaman dan mempertahankan perdamaian. Sagan berpendapat bahwa "lebih banyak lebih buruk" karena negara nuklir baru biasanya tidak punya kendali organisasional yang kuat atas senjata barunya; keadaan tersebut meningkatkan risiko perang nuklir yang disengaja atau tidak disengaja, atau pencurian bahan nuklir oleh teroris untuk melancarkan aksi terorisme nuklir.

Argumen

Sebuah penelitian kuantitatif yang diterbitkan di Journal of Conflict Resolution tahun 2009 menilai hipotesis perdamaian nuklir dan memperkuat bukti paradoks kestabilan-ketidakstabilan. Penelitian ini menetapkan bahwa meski senjata nuklir menciptakan kestabilan strategis dan mencegah perang besar-besaran, senjata nuklir akan memicu konflik intensitas rendah. Apabila monopoli nuklir muncul di antara dua negara, yaitu ketika sebuah negara memiliki senjata nuklir dan negara yang satu lagi tidak, perang mungkin saja pecah. Sebaliknya, apabila kedua negara sama-sama memiliki senjata nuklir, kemungkinan pecahnya perang turun drastis.[1]

Lihat pula

Referensi

  1. ^ http://jcr.sagepub.com/content/53/2/258.short Evaluating the Nuclear Peace Hypothesis A Quantitative Approach.

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