Run differential

In baseball, run differential is a cumulative team statistic that combines offensive and defensive scoring. Run differential is calculated by subtracting runs allowed from runs scored.

Run differential is positive when a team scores more runs than it allows; it is negative when a team allows more runs than it scores. Non-zero run differentials are normally expressed with leading plus and minus signs.

Example

The final standings, along with runs scored (RS), runs allows (RA), and run differential (RD), of the American League West for the 1999 season were as follows:[1]

1999 AL West (final standings)
Team Won Lost Win pct. GB RS RA RD
Texas Rangers 95 67 .586 – 945 859 +86
Oakland Athletics 87 75 .537 8 893 846 +47
Seattle Mariners 79 83 .488 16 859 905 -46
Anaheim Angels 70 92 .432 25 711 826 -115

Note: the run differentials shown above are not zero sum as the four teams within the AL West did not exclusively play against one another; there were 14 total teams in the American League in 1999.

Usage

Run differentials may be used by some leagues or in some tournaments as a tiebreaker. An example is baseball at the Summer Olympics, where if teams in pool play finish with identical records, run differential is used to determine which team advances to the knockout stage.[2] The 1956 Claxton Shield tournament, held in Australia, included an instance of a team attempting to manipulate the run differential in order to advance.[3][4]

Major League Baseball (MLB) does not use run differential in breaking ties for postseason berths,[5][6] although standings presented on the MLB.com website may include run differential as a courtesy to the reader.[7]

Run differential has a strong correlation to a team's winning percentage,[8][9][10] which is characterized by a formula known as the Pythagorean expectation, devised by Bill James.

Team Quality Balance

A variation on the run differential formula is the Team Quality Balance (TQB) formula, defined by the World Baseball Softball Confederation (WBSC) for use in certain tie-breaking scenarios. It is calculated as runs scored per innings played on offense minus runs allowed per innings played on defense.[11] TQB functions the same as run differential except that it also factors in the number of innings played on offense and defense, which is not always the same. For example, when a home team is winning after 8+1⁄2 innings have been played, the bottom of the ninth inning is not played; in such cases, the home team has played eight innings on offense and nine on defense, while the away team has played nine innings on offense and eight on defense.

Records

The best run differential in a major-league season is +458, set by the 1884 St Louis Maroons, who scored 887 runs while allowing 429.[12] The Maroons competed in the Union Association, whose records and statistics are recognized by MLB. The worst run differential was by the 1899 Cleveland Spiders of the National League at −723, who allowed 1252 runs while only scoring 529.[13] In baseball's modern era (since 1900), the 1939 New York Yankees have recorded the best run differential (+411),[14] while the 1932 Boston Red Sox have recorded the worst (−349).[13]

The highest run differential in a single game in major-league history is 29, when the Chicago Colts (now the Cubs) beat the Louisville Colonels 36–7 on June 29, 1897,[15] and the record in baseball's modern era (since 1900) is 27, when the Texas Rangers beat the Baltimore Orioles 30–3 on August 22, 2007.[16][17] The biggest run differential in a shutout is 22, when the Cleveland Indians defeated the New York Yankees 22–0 on August 31, 2004.[18][19]

See also

References

  1. ^ "The 1999 Season". Retrosheet. Retrieved September 26, 2022.
  2. ^ Axisa, Mike (July 30, 2021). "2020 Tokyo Olympics baseball scores: Team USA wins opener vs. Israel; Dominican Republic tops Mexico". CBS Sports. Retrieved September 26, 2022. If Mexico wins, there will be a tiebreaker based on run differential.
  3. ^ Clark, Joe (2003). A History of Australian Baseball: Time and Game. University of Nebraska Press. ISBN 0-8032-6440-2.
  4. ^ "Umpire in 'ball shock". The Sydney Morning Herald. Australia. August 5, 1956. p. 41 Sporting Section. Retrieved September 26, 2022 – via newspapers.com.
  5. ^ Castrovince, Anthony (July 25, 2022). "How to determine playoff tiebreakers". MLB.com. Retrieved September 26, 2022.
  6. ^ Garza, Jonathan (April 14, 2022). "MLB News: No More Game 163; Tiebreakers for Playoffs Announced". dodgerstailgate.com. Retrieved September 27, 2022. It was reported Wednesday that run differential during the 2022 season would affect Postseason eligibility and seeding in the event of a tie. This is incorrect.
  7. ^ "Standings". MLB.com. Retrieved September 26, 2022.
  8. ^ Posnanski, Joe (March 21, 2018). "The Run Differential Breakdown". JoeBlogs. Retrieved September 26, 2022.
  9. ^ Sheth, Aadit (June 8, 2020). "Investigating Baseball Wins". Medium. Retrieved September 26, 2022.
  10. ^ Blake, Chris (October 29, 2021). "How much does run differential really matter?". thegoodgriefs.com. Retrieved September 26, 2022.
  11. ^ "Major changes coming to international baseball and softball, World Cups". wbsc.org. Retrieved 2021-08-17.
  12. ^ "Highest Run Differential Ever". statmuse.com. August 10, 2022.
  13. ^ a b Jazayerli, Rany (November 3, 2015). "The BP Wayback Machine: Dayton Moore's First Week". baseballprospectus.com.
  14. ^ "which mlb team had the best run differential season". statmuse.com. Retrieved September 26, 2022.
  15. ^ "Events of Tuesday, June 29, 1897". Retrosheet. Retrieved April 18, 2019.
  16. ^ Mintz, Jake (August 1, 2018). "These games were the most one-sided matchups in MLB history". MLB.com.
  17. ^ "Texas Rangers 30, Baltimore Orioles 3 (1)". Retrosheet. August 22, 2007. Retrieved April 18, 2019.
  18. ^ "5 Biggest Winning Margins In MLB History". July 18, 2014 – via Excite.
  19. ^ "Cleveland Indians 22, New York Yankees 0". Retrosheet. August 31, 2004. Retrieved April 18, 2019.

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