List of predicted asteroid impacts on Earth

This is a list of asteroids that have impacted Earth after discovery and orbit calculation that predicted the impact in advance. As of December 2024, all of the asteroids with predicted impacts were under 5 m (16 ft) in size that were discovered just hours before impact, and burned up in the atmosphere as meteors.

Asteroid
designation		 Date of impact Location of impact Method of detection Estimated size Reference
2008 TC3 October 7, 2008 Nubian Desert in Sudan visual, weather satellite, meteorite recovery 4 m (13 ft) [1]
2014 AA January 2, 2014 Central Atlantic Ocean infrasound 2–4 m (6.6–13.1 ft) [2]
2018 LA June 2, 2018 Botswana/South Africa border visual, infrasound, meteorite recovery 2 m (6.6 ft) [3][4][5]
2019 MO June 22, 2019 Caribbean Sea near Puerto Rico visual, infrasound, weather satellite & radar 4 m (13 ft) [6]
2022 EB5 March 11, 2022 Jan Mayen, northern Atlantic Ocean visual, infrasound 2 m (6.6 ft) [7][8]
2022 WJ1 November 19, 2022 Ontario, Canada visual, radar 1 m (3.3 ft) [9][10]
2023 CX1 February 13, 2023 Northwestern France visual, meteorite recovery 1 m (3.3 ft) [11][12]
2024 BX1 January 21, 2024 Berlin, Germany visual, meteorite recovery 1 m (3.3 ft) [13][14]
2024 RW1 September 4, 2024 Pacific Ocean near Luzon, Philippines visual 1 m (3.3 ft) [15][16]
2024 UQ October 22, 2024 Eastern Pacific visual 1 m (3.3 ft) [17]
2024 XA1 December 3, 2024 Eastern Siberia visual 70 cm (28 in)

References

  1. ^ Shaddad, Muawia H.; et al. (October 2010). "The recovery of asteroid 2008 TC3" (PDF). Meteoritics & Planetary Science. 45 (10–11): 1557–1589. Bibcode:2010M&PS...45.1557S. doi:10.1111/j.1945-5100.2010.01116.x. Archived (PDF) from the original on 2016-03-04. Retrieved 2024-01-27.
  2. ^ Beatty, Kelly (January 2, 2014). "Small asteroid 2014 AA hits Earth". Sky & Telescope. Retrieved 2024-01-28.
  3. ^ Malik, Tariq (June 4, 2018). "A Tiny Asteroid Just Hit Earth, Sparking a Fireball Over South Africa (Video)". Space.com. Retrieved 2024-01-28.
  4. ^ Gulon, Tioga (July 3, 2018). "Asteroid 2018 LA hit the atmosphere over Botswana on June 2". News. International Meteor Organization. Retrieved 2024-02-18.
  5. ^ King, Bob (July 6, 2018). "First Fragment Of Shattered Asteroid Recovered In Botswana". Duluth News Tribune. Retrieved 2024-02-18.
  6. ^ Geggel, Laura (June 28, 2019). "Astronomers Spotted a Car-Size Asteroid Just Hours Before Impact". Space.com. Retrieved 2024-01-28.
  7. ^ Baker, Harry (March 16, 2022). "Fridge-size asteroid detected just 2 hours before it slammed into Earth". Live Science. Retrieved 2024-01-28.
  8. ^ Antier, Karl (March 13, 2022). "2022 EB5 : 5th predicted Earth impact!". News. International Meteor Organization. Retrieved 2024-01-28.
  9. ^ "NASA Program Predicted Impact of Small Asteroid Over Ontario, Canada". NASA/JPL. November 22, 2022. Retrieved 2024-01-28.
  10. ^ "Meteorite Falls: Grimsby, Ontario". NASA Johnson Space Center Astromaterials Research & Exploration Science. Retrieved 2024-02-18.
  11. ^ "CNEOS Predicts Another Small Asteroid Impact, This One over Northwestern France". NASA/JPL CNEOS. February 14, 2023. Retrieved 2024-01-28.
  12. ^ Green, Daniel W. E. (March 6, 2023). "CBET 5230 : 2023 CX_1". Central Bureau Electronic Telegrams. No. 5230. Retrieved 2024-02-18.
  13. ^ Price, Kiley (January 23, 2024). "Scientists discover near-Earth asteroid hours before it exploded over Berlin". Space.com. Retrieved 2024-01-28.
  14. ^ Rea, Robert (January 31, 2024). "Meteorites from Asteroid 2024 Bx1, which just hit Earth, may be super-rare space rocks". Space.com. Retrieved 2024-02-05.
  15. ^ James Dinneen, Matthew Sparkes (September 4, 2024). "A small asteroid hit Earth and burned up over the Philippines". New Scientist. Retrieved 2024-09-04.
  16. ^ Brett Tingley (2024-09-04). "Tiny asteroid burns up over Philippines. 'Discovered this morning,' ESA says". Space.com. Retrieved 2024-09-04.
  17. ^ Green, Daniel (October 22, 2024). "2024 UQ". IAU Central Bureau Electronic Telegrams. No. 5465. Retrieved 2024-10-25.