International crisis

The term international crisis is a widespread term without a single common definition.^[1] To some, it involves "a sequence of interactions between the governments of two or more sovereign states in severe conflict, short of actual war, but involving the perception of a dangerously high probability of war".^[2]

Types

Lebow gives a breakdown of three types of international crises:

Justification of hostilities.^[3] One of the nations decides, before the crisis starts, to go to war and constructs a crisis to justify it. The pattern of justification is almost always the same: Rouse public opinion, make impossible demands, try to legitimize the demands, deny your real intentions then employ the rejection of the demands as a reason for war. A recent example, commonly employed by critics of George W. Bush, is the Iraq disarmament crisis, which precipitated the Iraq War.
Spinoff crisis. The nations are involved in a war or crisis with another nation or nations and this precipitates another crisis, e.g. the Lusitania incident in 1915.
Brinkmanship. Intentionally forcing a crisis to get the other side to back down. The Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 is a well-known example of brinkmanship.

With the exception of a justification of hostilities, the study of international crises assumes that neither side actually wants to go to war, but must be visibly prepared to do so.

Strategies

George's book presents an overview of the process and conflicting goals of crisis management as well as many examples.^[4] He discusses a number of strategies, including:

Offensive strategies

blackmail
limited and reversible response
controlled pressure
attrition
fait accompli

Defensive strategies

coercion
limited escalation
tit-for-tat
test of capabilities
"drawing a line"
buying time strategy
conveying commitment and resolve to avoid miscalculation by the adversary

List of defused crises

International crises tend to result in war, almost by definition; they are then remembered best not as crises but as causes of wars. For information on international crises that resulted immediately in war, see list of wars.

Given the above, some of the crises that are best-known as crises were defused. The following crises did not immediately provoke large-scale violence, but set off anger in countries:

War in sight crisis (1875)^[5]
Samoan Crisis (1887–1889), between the United States of America, England, and Germany
Anglo-Portuguese Crisis (1889–1890)
Venezuelan crisis of 1895, between Venezuela and the United Kingdom
Fashoda Incident (1898–1899)
Baltimore Crisis (1891–1892)
Venezuelan crisis of 1902–03, between Venezuela and Britain, Germany and Italy
First Moroccan Crisis (1904–1906)
Dutch–Venezuelan crisis of 1908, between Venezuela and the Netherlands
Bosnian crisis (1908–1909)
Agadir Crisis (1911)
Åland crisis (1916–1920)
Remilitarization of the Rhineland (1936)
Anschluss (1938)
May Crisis (1938)
Sudetenland Crisis (1938)
Levant Crisis (1945) between the United Kingdom and Syria, France
Iran crisis (1946–1947)
Berlin Blockade (1948–1949)
Berlin Crisis of 1961
Cuban Missile Crisis (1962)
Pueblo incident (1968)
Damansky Island Crisis (1969)
1973 Chilean coup
Axe Murder Incident (1976)
Beagle conflict (1978)
Iran hostage crisis (1979)
Able Archer 83 (1983)
Caldas' crisis (1987)

Ongoing crises

Korean conflict (1945-ongoing)
- North Korea and weapons of mass destruction
Israeli–Palestinian conflict (1947-ongoing)
Indo-Pakistani wars and conflicts (1947-ongoing)
Territorial disputes in the South China Sea (1950s-ongoing)
Cyprus problem (1963-ongoing)
Iran–Saudi Arabia proxy conflict (1979-ongoing)
- Iraqi conflict (2003-ongoing)
Crisis in Venezuela (2010-ongoing)
Libyan conflict (2011-ongoing)
Syrian Civil War (2011-ongoing)
Russo-Ukrainian war (2014-ongoing)
Yemeni Civil War (2015-ongoing)
Rohingya genocide (2017-ongoing)
Lebanese crisis (2019-ongoing)
The 2023 Nigerien Crisis (2023-ongoing)
- Aftermath of the 2023 Nigerien coup d'état.

References

^ Acuto, Michele (7 September 2011). "Diplomats in Crisis". Diplomacy & Statecraft. 22 (3): 521–539. doi:10.1080/09592296.2011.599661. S2CID 154603462.
^ Snyder, Glenn H. and Diesing, Paul: 1977. Conflict Among Nations: Bargaining, Decision Making and System Structure in International Crises. defines an international crisis
^ Lebow, Richard N.:1981. Between Peace and War: The Nature of International Crisis.
^ George, Alexander L (ed): 1991. Avoiding War: Problems of Crisis Management.
^ Lothar Gall, Bismarck: The White Revolutionary, Volume 2: 1871–1898 (1986) pp 46–48

Snyder, Glenn H. and Diesing, Paul: 1977. Conflict Among Nations: Bargaining, Decision Making and System Structure in International Crises. ISBN 0-691-05664-1
Lebow, Richard N.:1981. Between Peace and War: The Nature of International Crisis. ISBN 0-8018-2311-0
George, Alexander L (ed): 1991. Avoiding War: Problems of Crisis Management. ISBN 0-8133-1232-9