Lebanon differs from other Middle East countries where Muslims have become the majority after the civil war, and somewhat resembles Bosnia-Herzegovina and Albania, both are in Southeast Europe, and have a diverse mix of Muslims and Christians that each make up a large proportion of the country's population. Christians were once a majority inside Lebanon and are still an overwhelming majority in the diaspora, which consists of nearly 14 million people.[5][6]
Besides Lebanese citizens in Lebanon, a large proportion of people in the country are refugees, accounting for approximately 2 million people out of a bit over 6 million in 2017, which affects statistics.[2] The refugees, who mostly are of Syrian or Palestinian origin, are predominantly Sunni Muslim, but include Christians and Shia Muslims.[2]
No official census has been taken since 1932, reflecting the political sensitivity in Lebanon over confessional (i.e., religious) balance.[10]
As a result, the religious affiliation of the Lebanese population is very difficult to establish with certainty and various sources are used to get the possible estimate of the population by religious affiliation. The following are different sources that do not pretend to be fully representative of the religious affiliation of the people of Lebanon.[citation needed]
A 2012 study conducted by Statistics Lebanon, a Beirut-based research firm, estimated Lebanon's population to be 54% Muslim (27% Shia; 27% Sunni), 46% Christian (31.5% Maronite, 8% Greek Orthodox, 6.5% other Christian groups) [11]
The CIA World Factbook estimates (2020) the following, though this data does not include Lebanon's sizable Syrian and Palestinian refugee populations: Muslim 67.8% (Sunni, Shia and smaller percentages of Alawites and Ismailis), Christian 32.4% (mainly Maronite Catholics are the largest Christian group), Druze 4.5%, and very small numbers of Jews, Baha'is, Buddhists, and Hindus.[12]
According to a 2022 analysis by the Pew Research Center, the demographic landscape of Lebanon reveals a Christian population estimated at 43.4%, with Muslims constituting the majority at 57.6%. This data underscores the religious diversity within Lebanon, reflecting a dynamic interplay of different faith communities within the country.[13]
Lebanon has a community of around 13,000 Hindus.[14] There is a very small and ancient community of Zoroastrians, numbering between 100–500 individuals.[15][16] Lebanon also has a Jewish population estimated at less than 100.[2]
Confessional breakdown of registered voters in Lebanon
The confessional breakdown of registered voters in Lebanon between 2011, 2018, and 2024 offers a detailed look at the demographic trends among the country’s various religious sects, including Christians, Muslims (Shias, Sunnis, and Alawites), and Druze. Lebanon’s complex socio-political environment and history of conflict have heavily influenced these trends, with shifts in population numbers reflecting broader regional upheavals, such as the Syrian civil war, the Lebanese-Israeli conflicts, and internal economic and political struggles. This review will explore the changes within each major sect and the possible factors driving these shifts.
Christians
Lebanon’s Christian population, historically a dominant political force, remains a significant part of the electorate. The Christian category is diverse, including Maronites, Greek Orthodox, Catholics, Armenians (Apostolics and Catholics), Protestants, and other smaller groups. A general upward trend can be seen in the voter registration figures for Christians, contrasting with the relative stagnation or decline in Muslim sects.
2011: Maronites made up 21.71% of the total voter base, representing over 700,000 individuals.
2018: Their percentage dipped slightly to 21.11%, but their absolute numbers grew to 778,032.
2024: By this year, Maronites saw a growth in both their percentage (22.47%) and absolute numbers (891,498).
This upward trend, particularly from 2018 onwards, could be linked to the return of displaced individuals and demographic recovery following the initial effects of the 2011 Syrian crisis. During the Syrian conflict, many Maronites living in areas near the Syrian border or in vulnerable economic situations were likely displaced, resulting in a temporary stagnation. However, by 2024, their voter base had expanded, reflecting improved social and political conditions for this community. Their growth can also be attributed to higher birth rates or returns from the diaspora.
2011: Represented 7.34% of voters, with around 244,627 people.
2018: This number increased to 8.1%, or 298,534 voters.
2024: The percentage reached 8.3%, with 329,303 voters.
Orthodox Christians have experienced steady growth, reflecting similar factors that benefited the Maronites. Orthodox communities, largely based in stable urban centers or regions less affected by direct conflict, may have benefited from higher birth rates and lower emigration compared to other groups. Their growth could also reflect increasing stability in their traditional areas of residence.
2011: Catholics made up 4.8% of the electorate, totaling 158,723 voters.
2018: Their percentage slightly increased to 5.2%, with 191,651 voters.
2024: Catholics remained at around 4.97%, with 197,185 voters.
Although the Catholic community’s percentage growth has been modest, their total numbers have increased significantly. This suggests that while their overall demographic proportion is stable, the absolute growth in voters reflects a broader trend of population growth in Christian communities.
Armenian Apostolics:
2011: Represented 2.64% of voters (88,005 people).
2018: This percentage increased to 2.88% (106,145 people).
2024: By this time, Armenian Apostolics made up 2.92% (115,851 people).
Armenian Catholics:
2011: Made up 0.62% of voters (20,514 people).
2018: This number increased to 0.65% (23,956 people).
2024: Reached 0.67%, with 26,582 voters.
The Armenian communities, both Apostolic and Catholic, have seen steady growth. The Armenian diaspora in Lebanon has long maintained close ties to its homeland and international diaspora, which might explain the resilience and growth of these communities. Given Lebanon's relatively stable environment for religious minorities, Armenians have seen a consistent rise in voter registration, suggesting healthy birth rates and potential return migration.
Protestants and Other Christians:
Protestants:
2011: 0.53% of voters, with 17,633 individuals.
2024: Grew to 21,027 voters, marking a significant increase of 16.14%.
Other Christians:
2011: Represented 1.46% (48,428 voters).
2024: Increased to 65,067 voters, a growth of 25.57%.
Smaller Christian sects, such as Protestants and various independent Christian groups, have also seen healthy growth. This could be due to greater political and social organization, increased migration from other regions, or higher fertility rates.
Muslims
The Muslim population in Lebanon is primarily divided between Shia, Sunni, and Alawite communities. While they constitute a significant portion of the voter base, the overall Muslim population has seen a slight decline as a percentage of the electorate, particularly in areas heavily affected by conflict.
2011: Shias made up 27.35% of the voter base, with 912,095 registered voters.
2018: This number rose to 28.2%, totaling 1,039,341 voters.
2024: However, the percentage decreased to 26.2%, with 1,039,487 voters.
Shia Muslims experienced an increase between 2011 and 2018, but this trend reversed by 2024. The Lebanese-Israeli conflicts, which have disproportionately affected southern Lebanon (where many Shias reside), likely led to this decrease. Many Shia residents of southern Lebanon have faced displacement, economic hardship, and lower birth rates due to instability and conflict. Additionally, some may have migrated to Syria or other countries in search of better living conditions, further contributing to their reduced voter base.
2011: Sunnis constituted 27.65% of voters, with 922,125 individuals.
2018: This percentage fell to 25.49%, with 939,461 registered voters.
2024: Their proportion stabilized slightly, reaching 26.55%, with 1,053,373 voters.
Like the Shia, the Sunni population has experienced fluctuations. While their absolute numbers have grown, their overall percentage of the population has seen a slight decline. Many Sunni communities reside in regions of Lebanon that have been economically challenged, such as Tripoli and parts of the Bekaa Valley. These areas have been affected by both internal Lebanese political struggles and the Syrian crisis, which may have led to migration or reduced birth rates.
2011: Alawites made up 0.88% of voters, with 29,314 individuals.
2018: Their number slightly increased to 0.89%, with 32,802 voters.
2024: The Alawite percentage decreased to 0.64%, with 25,392 voters, marking a decline of -15.44%.
The Alawite community, which is closely tied to the Assad regime in Syria, has seen a significant decline in Lebanon. The Lebanese-Israeli conflicts and their connection to the Assad regime likely contributed to their displacement or migration back to Syria, as many Alawites fled Lebanon due to political instability and threats to their safety.
Druze
The Druze community, a significant but small religious group in Lebanon, has seen a relatively stable voter base:
2011: The Druze represented 5.74% of voters, with 191,321 individuals.
2018: This percentage decreased to 5.42%, with 199,760 voters.
2024: The Druze voter base grew to 206,707 individuals, constituting 5.21% of voters.
The Druze have maintained a relatively stable population in Lebanon, with minor fluctuations in their overall percentage. Their traditional strongholds in the Chouf mountains have largely remained insulated from the worst effects of conflict, allowing their population to grow modestly over time.
Lebanese Greek Catholics are found across the country but in particular in districts on the eastern slopes of the Lebanese mountain range and in Zahlé where they are a majority.
The other Lebanese Christians and non-native Christian communities are concentrated in similar areas like in east Beirut (northern parts of Greater Beirut), Mount Lebanon, Zahlé, and Jezzine.
As of 2021, there are only 69 Jews remaining in Lebanon.[22] The majority of the remaining Jewish population is concentrated in Beirut. The Jewish community was traditionally located in Wadi Abu Jamil and Ras Beirut, with other communities in Chouf, Deir al-Qamar, Aley, Bhamdoun, and Hasbaya.[23]
Religion plays a major role in politics. Some researchers describe the political system in Lebanon as "coming out of the womb of religion and politics".[25] After the independence from France in 1943, the leaders of Lebanon agreed on the distribution of the political positions in the country according to religious affiliation, known as the National Pact. Since then, the President is always a Maronite Christian, the Prime Minister is at all times a Sunni Muslim and the Speaker of the Parliament must be a Shia Muslim.
Most political parties are based on sectarian belongingness and represent their religion's interests. It is not rare to find the clergy involved in political activities, either as members or as leaders.[26]
Since Lebanon is a country that is ruled by a sectarian system, family matters such as marriage, divorce and inheritance are handled by the religious authorities representing a person's faith. The modern Lebanese state regulates the intersection between rights, sex, and kinship through the simultaneous application of civil and personal status law and through civil institutions that provide oversight over the legal system as a whole.[29] Calls for civil marriage are unanimously rejected by the religious authorities but civil marriages conducted in another country are recognized by Lebanese civil authorities. In the case of Lebanon, many Lebanese couples therefore conducted their civil marriage in Cyprus, which became a well-known destination for such instances.[30]
Overall, societal norms and family dynamics create significant obstacles for mixed-sect couples in Lebanon, impacting their relationships and the acceptance of their unions within their communities and families.[31]
In April 2010, Laïque Pride, a secular group co-founded by feminist Yalda Younes, called for "an end to the country's deep-rooted sectarian system" and for a "secular Lebanon". Laïque Pride supports the enacting of a unified Civil Code for the Personal Status Law.[34]
On April 26, 2010, in response to Hizb ut-Tahrir's growing appeal in Beirut and demands to re-establish an Islamic caliphate, a Laïque Pride march was held in Beirut. Three days later, 70,000 gathered in Martyrs' Square, Beirut for a march organized by Laïque Pride.
In 2011, hundreds of protesters rallied in Beirut on 27 February in a Laïque Pride march, calling for reform of the country's confessionalpolitical system. At the same time, a peaceful sit-in took place in Sidon.[35]
In October 2019, and until August 2020, a series of civil protests ensued in Lebanon, now known as the 17 October Revolution condemning sectarian rule amongst a myriad of other issues plaguing their country.[36]Lina Khatib, a journalist for Al Jazeera, has labelled these protests as "cross-sectarian". She notes: "They are taking place across Lebanon, rather than only in Beirut. And they are demanding the fall of the government from the outset, while criticizing political leaders from every sect."[37]
^Hobby (1985). Near East/South Asia Report. Foreign Broadcast Information Service. p. 53. the Druzes and the Christians in the Shuf Mountains in the past lived in complete harmony..
^Deeb, Marius (2013). Syria, Iran, and Hezbollah: The Unholy Alliance and Its War on Lebanon. Hoover Press. ISBN9780817916664. the Maronites and the Druze, who founded Lebanon in the early eighteenth century.
^Deeb, Lara (2022). "WHEN EXPOSURE ISNOT ENOUGH: Sectarianism as a Response to Mixed Marriage," in Practicing Sectarianism (ed. Lara Deeb, Tsolin Nalbantian, and Nadya Sbaiti ed.). Stanford: Stanford University Press. pp. 157–179. ISBN9781503631090.
1 The Lebanese people has the most religious diversity of all peoples in the Middle East, comprising 18 recognized religious sects recognized by the Constitution of Lebanon. 2 Under the terms of the Constitution of Lebanon, the Druze community is designated as a part of the Lebanese Muslim community.
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