On 9 December 2022, the governments of Japan, the United Kingdom, and Italy jointly announced that they would develop and deploy a common fighter jet, merging their previously separate sixth-generation projects: the United Kingdom-led BAE Systems Tempest developed with Italy, and the Japanese Mitsubishi F-X.[1][2] This was cemented with a treaty signed in December 2023 in Japan.[3]
There are around 9,000 people working on the programme worldwide, with 1,000 and more suppliers from across the three partner nations. 600 such suppliers are based in the UK, and 400 are based in Italy and Japan.[4] BAE systems alone have 1,000 apprentices and graduates working on GCAP.[5]
Under the current timeline, the programme expects to begin the formal development phase from 2025, with a demonstrator aircraft to fly in 2027, and production aircraft to begin entering service from 2035.[6]
On 16 July 2018 during the Farnborough Airshow, then UK defence secretary Gavin Williamson publicly revealed a mock-up of 'Tempest' a BAE Systems led sixth-generation fighter programme and wider Future Combat Air System (FCAS) that would be developed to replace the RAF's Eurofighter Typhoons in the mid-to-late 2030s.[7][8] This would be developed by an industrial consortium known as Team Tempest consisting of BAE, Rolls Royce, Leonardo, and MBDA working in conjunction with the Ministry of Defence and the Royal Air Force's Rapid Capabilities Office.[9]
On 19 July 2019, Sweden signed a Memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the UK to work together in developing the wider FCAS needed for the future of aerial operations.[10] on 11 September during DSEI 2019, Italy formally joined the Tempest programme.[11][12] In 2020, Sweden and the UK 'firmed up' their MoU for FCAS and saw Sweden's SAAB establish a centre-of-excellence in the UK as part of a £50 million investment, However it was stressed that this was not an indication that Sweden or SAAB had signed onto the main Tempest effort.[13] On the 21 December 2021, The UK, Italy, and Sweden signed a trilateral MoU for cooperation on the FCAS.[14]
Mock-up of Tempest
A number of new technologies were being explored for Tempest, including:[15][16]
Augmented reality cockpit - control scheme featuring little-to-no physical controls, instead displaying features virtually on the heads up display via the pilot's helmet. This would reduce aircraft weight, improve upgradability through a software-based approach, and provide additional display space for information outside of the typical flat-screen arrangement. This also includes examinations into interactivity such as motion-control and eye-tracking.
Biometric and psycho-analytical monitoring - exploring pilot health monitoring during combat and training to identify issues such as stress, confusion, cognitive load, as well as hypoxia or G-LOC.
Manned-unmanned teaming - crewed aircraft like Tempest working cooperatively with uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) known as 'Adjuncts' (also known as Loyal Wingmen or Remote Weapon Carriers in other aircraft programs)
Artificial intelligence (AI) - known as the Intelligent Virtual Assistant (IVA) that could assist with aircraft operations or data processing in certain operations or situations.
Much of the technology envisioned for use on Tempest would initially be fielded on 'Excalibur', a Boeing 757-200 modified by British firm 2Excel in conjunction with Leonardo UK to serve as a test aircraft. The aim of Excalibur is to de-risk and validate the technologies being examined for the fighter including testing the aerodynamics of the fighter's nose section and testing the aircraft's sensor suite.[17][18] This development would also continue with a demonstrator aircraft announced in 2022 which is expected to take flight around 2027.[19]
It was envisaged that the programme would agree to funding and manufacturing arrangements by 2025 with an expected in-service date for the aircraft in 2035.[15]
Japan (F-X)
Artist impression of the Mitsubishi F-X
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Following the USA's decision not to allow the export of the F-22 Raptor, Japan began looking for a domestic solution to field a new fighter aircraft. From the mid-2000s Japan began funding various research programmes involved in fighter design culminating in the Mitsubishi X-2 Shinshin experimental aircraft which took flight on 22 April 2016. This research and the data collected from the X-2 program would feed the development of Japan's main fighter effort, the Mitsubishi F-X programme.
Development
Discussions for both parties combining their respective fighter development efforts as a means of reducing their overall development costs began as early as 2017.[20][21][22] In December 2021, the first results of this endeavour appeared when the UK and Japan announced they would jointly cooperate to produce a demonstrator for a new fighter engine as well as the signing of a memorandum of cooperation to explore future air combat technologies together.[23] On 15 February 2022, a further agreement was reached between both nations to jointly develop sensor capabilities for their respective fighters known as the 'Japan and Great Britain Universal Advanced RF (radio-frequency) system' or 'JAGUAR'.[24]
In July 2022, Reuters reported from anonymous sources within both programmes that both parties were close to a deal that would combine both Tempest and F-X into a single joint programme.[25] On 9 December 2022, this was proven correct when it was officially announced by British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak that the Tempest and F-X programmes would merge into a single endeavour to procure a common multi-role fighter now called the "Global Combat Air Programme" (GCAP).[26][27][2] The resulting aircraft would also be expected to be available for export to further reduce the per-unit costs.[28]
The programme is envisaged as an equal partnership between the member nations. In the UK, BAE Systems will act as prime contractor and handle the airframe, Rolls-Royce the engines, Leonardo's UK division the electronics, and MBDA UK the weapons. In Japan, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries will act as prime contractor, with IHI Corporation handling the engines, and Mitsubishi Electric handling the electronics. In Italy, Leonardo S.p.A. will be prime contractor, with Avio Aero working on the engines, and MBDA IT will also work on missile development.[29] By around 2024, detailed development and cost sharing for each company will be clarified, and production will begin around 2030, with the first aircraft to be deployed in 2035.[29]
Possible Swedish, Saudi Arabian, and German membership
In late December 2022, two weeks after GCAP was announced, Japan and Sweden signed an ‘Agreement on the Transfer of Defence Equipment and Technology' that would explore deeper bilateral ties between both nations.[30] This also began speculation as to Sweden potentially becoming a member of GCAP as a means of replacing their Saab JAS 39 Gripen given that Sweden had previously been cooperating with the UK and Italy regarding the FCAS to which Tempest would have contributed.[14][30] However, in March 2023, several industrial figures involved in GCAP placed doubt on Sweden joining GCAP with some stating that Sweden's concepts for FCAS did not align with the views of the UK or Italy.[31]
On 11 August 2023, the Financial Times reported that that Saudi Arabia was pushing to join the programme.[32] While the UK and Italy were reportedly open to the concept, Japan was firmly opposed, seeing Saudi membership as a complication to both further domestic efforts in allowing Japanese defence exports to foreign nations and to the overall timeline for the programme in successfully producing an in-service aircraft by 2035.[32][33] There were also concerns from defence sources that the security of sensitive technology might be complicated by Saudi membership as well as the questionable technical contribution that the Kingdom could feasibly provide to the programme.[32]
On 15 September, Leonardo's CEO said that Saudi Arabia would not become a core partner in GCAP, with Reuters reporting that in a response to the question of Saudi membership they said "The programme is (for) UK, Japan, Italy, that's it. There is nothing else at the moment".[34][35]
On 1 November 2023, The Times reported on leaked rumours that Germany was considering abandoning the €100 billion Future Combat Air System; also known by its French designation SCAF (a parallel European effort to field a sixth-generation fighter design alongside other systems) with other core members France and Spain, and would instead look to join GCAP.[36] Extensively this was due to ongoing problems within both the SCAF programme regarding intellectual property and industrial participation as well as tensions spilling over from other European programmes such as on matters of air defence and Germany's procurement of the F-35A. However, many experts were quick to point out that the complexity of the discussions for this type of programme should keep observers sceptical of such rumours. James Black from Rand Europe and Isabella Antinozzi from RUSI explained to Shepard News that this leak might potentially be a German negotiating tactic to pressure France and Spain to concede into more of Germany's demands for the programme or risk their divergence. There was also scepticism as to whether Germany would even be able to join GCAP, at least to the same level of membership they had within SCAF, especially given previous statements by GCAP industry heads.[37][34][35]
In December 2023, a Swedish official during the International Fighter Conference announced that Sweden would not make a decision on a future fighter to replace the Gripen until 2031 following several national studies and related planning efforts.[38][39] It was also mentioned that Sweden walked away from bilateral and trilateral discussions with the UK and Italy a year before, but did not expand on the reasons for this decision. Whilst such a decision does not rule-out future Swedish participation in GCAP, delaying membership in the programme would risk losing industrial influence over design requirements.[31]
During the February 2024 World Defence Show in Saudi Arabia, Ahmad Al-Ohali, the governor of the Saudi government’s General Authority for Military Industries (GAMI) told Breaking Defence that the kingdom remained "very keen" on participating in GCAP but stressed that this can only happen if "localisation" can occur and that Saudi Arabian industries are meaningfully involved in the program. This is seen as part of a larger national effort to ensure that at least 50% of all defence expenditure is reinvested domestically by 2030.[40]
In late July 2024, Leonardo chief executive Roberto Cingolani said he would be “personally very open” to Saudi Arabia joining if Britain decides to reduce its commitment, “especially if there were some reallocation of resources” after the UK’s new Labour government completes its defence spending review.[41]
Treaty signing & GIGO formation
On 12 September 2023, a trilateral collaboration agreement was signed between all three parties to support the long-term working arrangements and capability requirements of the programme.[42] Three months later, on 14 December 2023, and twelve months after the initial agreement to pursue GCAP, the tri-lateral effort was cemented with the signing of an international treaty for the development of the aircraft in Tokyo. This treaty would see both the collaborative governmental headquarters and industrial hub for the effort be based in the UK, confirming earlier reports,[34] with Japan providing the first CEO and Italy the first leader of the business entity. This would culminate in the formation of the GCAP international Government Organisation (GIGO) which would be responsible for managing the development of the fighter once the nations' respective political bodies gave their approval.[3][43][44][45] The Defense of Japan 2024 white paper outlined that the GIGO would first see technical officials dispatched as technology experts and a sophisticated and secure working environment established to ensure a smooth and reliable development process for the aircraft. Meeting with the various companies and industries contributing to the programme as well consultations with representatives of each of the governments involved will take place daily either by face-to-face meetings or through video conferencing.[46]
On 6th March 2024, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida told the House of Councillors budget committee that additional defence-related export reforms would be required to reduce the production costs involved in GCAP, support Japan's national security, and to ensure that Japan can be seen internationally as a reliable defence partner. Additionally it was reported that the Prime Minister also highlighted that Italy and the UK "consider promoting the transfer of finished products to third countries to lower procurement prices as an important element of their contribution, and [they have] requested that Japan take a similar response.”[47] On 15th March 2024, Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its junior coalition partner Komeito agreed to the revision of stringent defence export rules which would allow for the export of defence equipment, including the jointly developed fighter jet, to other countries that Japan has signed defence equipment and technology transfer deals with whilst also being free of ongoing conflict.[48][49] However Komeito of the ruling coalition expressed reservations about the decision in line with the party's pacifist platform.[48] In May 2024, Japan's House of Representatives, followed by the House of Councillors on June 5th 2024, approved the signing of the Tokyo treaty formally establishing the GIGO. [50][51]
The Defense of Japan 2024 white paper outlined Japan's revisions to its policy on the transfer of defence equipment and technology brought about by Japan's membership in GCAP. On the question of transferring the finished aircraft to third countries (countries outside of GCAP membership), the document states that joint development programmes like GCAP come with the assumption of equal contributions from all parties regarding requirements and performance and that because the UK and Italy "consider promoting the transfer of finished products to third countries an important contribution, they also expect a similar response from Japan". Therefore, to ensure this remains compatible with requirements of the UK and Italy, and that the aircraft could be exported to further reduce costs (economy of scale), a mechanism had to be created to enable such transfers. To this end, the current Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment and Technology and its Implementation Guidelines originally formulated in April 2024 were revised. These revisions included guidelines covering GCAP and created "three restrictions" regarding GCAP exports:[46]
At present, direct transfers between Japan of GCAP material are restricted to finished products only.
Transfers are restricted to nations who have signed international agreements obligating the use of Japanese defence equipment transferred in a manner consistent with the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations.
Transfers can not be made to a country where combat is currently deemed to be taking place as part of an armed conflict.
The establishment of GIGO also provided a pathway for the discussion of workshare and financial investment by the three partner nation's and their domestic industries. Two initial funding proposals have been initially reported, one with the UK and Japan each funding 40% whilst Italy would fund the remaining 20% of the programme whilst the other would see an equal distribution (33.3% each).[50][51]
On 14 October 2024, Luke Pollard the Under-Secretary of State for Defence announced that the UK had ratified the GCAP convention to establish the GIGO in September 2024.[52] On 12 November 2024, the Italian Parliament ratified the GCAP convention.[53] A joint venture agreement on the GIGO is expected by the end of 2024.[54]
Concept phase
Technology demonstrators
In June 2023, the UK's industrial partners shared progress on developing the 2027 technological demonstrator already contracted under the Tempest programme. Initial flight trials flown on simulators at BAE's facility in Warton had by this time conducted 150 hours of simulated flight-time, with BAE also claiming that through the use of auto-coding, critical system software used and tested in the simulator had been created in a matter of days rather than weeks. Meanwhile, Rolls Royce announced that it had used a EJ200 engine to test a new S-shaped stealth intake/duct developed by BAE. Finally, Martin Baker and BAE had conducted initial ejector-seat trials using a mock-up cockpit.[55][56]
In July 2023, BAE Systems' Future Combat Air System Managing Director, Herman Claesen, held a media event, where they outlined that a total of 60 technology demonstration projects were underway. In reference to the actual demonstrator aircraft, Claesen emphasised the need to prove the stealth characteristics and weapon bay operation, but also highlighted that BAE was still open to either a twin or single engine design. Claesen also outlined their belief that there could be several hundred export sales beyond sales to Italy, Japan, and the UK.[57]
On July 14 2023, the RAF awarded Leonardo UK and 2Excel a £115 million contract to enable the Excalibur flight test aircraft to transition into second phase development. This would see the purchase of a second Boeing 757 that would be modified into Excalibur, building upon the analysis conducted from the deconstruction of the first 757 airframe between 2021 and 2022. Excalibur is expected to commence testing in 2026.[58]
On 24 July 2024, following the passing of a critical design review, BAE Systems had reportedly already begun manufacturing and assembling of the flyable technology demonstrator. Most of the aircraft's parts will be produced in the UK with the involvement of over 100 suppliers. The manufacturing process had utilised a hot isostatic press to reduce material waste and lead times associated with forgings, as well as additive manufacturing. The demonstrator is expected to feature an integrated weapons bay, the first for a British-made aircraft since the Blackburn Buccaneer, with MBDA UK assisting with weapons integration. Meanwhile, Rolls-Royce will be providing two EJ200 engines donated by the Ministry of Defence to power the demonstrator. The aircraft will also be the first aircraft to utilise the Pyramid avionic design architecture. First disclosed by the Ministry of Defence in October 2021, Pyramid is a reusable open-system mission architecture designed to make avionic upgrades to aircraft simpler, cheaper, and quicker by focusing on a software-based approach with inbuilt compatibility with other platforms running the Pyramid Reference Architecture.[59][60] Additionally, simulated test-flight time of the demonstrator were now reportedly totalling 215 hours. Whilst the development of this technology demonstrator is a UK sovereign effort, the lessons learned will feed into GCAP much like with Japan's Mitsubishi X-2 years earlier. Dimensions for the technology demonstrator have not been revealed but, due to the size of its engine ducts publicly showcased by BAE Systems, it is estimated the aircraft is likely a third larger than a Eurofighter Typhoon.[61][62]
During the 2024 Farnborough Airshow, Rolls-Royce stated that it was progressing with the full-scale ground-based engine demonstrator for the fighter. Developed in concert with Italy's Avio Aero and Japan's IHI Corporation, the demonstrator is designed to initially test technologies developed by the three companies for compatibility, as well as common design tools, design processes, and audit processes for the production engine. In the future, the demonstrator is expected to serve as a test-bed for upgrades to the production power and propulsion system of the fighter.[63]
Updated airframe concept
The initial concept art for the aircraft shown following GCAP's announcement in 2022 was of a large, twin-engine, low-observable aircraft with a unique modified cranked delta-wing configuration. However, on 22 July 2024, at the Farnborough Airshow, an updated airframe concept design was unveiled alongside the aircraft's first 1:1 scale model. The new model showed a redesigned wing shape to that of a true delta and increase in wing size indicative of an emphasis on increased fuel capacity (range), weapon capacity, and speed.[64][65][66] Whilst there has yet to be official dimensional characteristics released for the fighter, Janes' Gareth Jennings in attendance of the unveiling talking of the scale model drew comparison to the 19 metre wingspan of the F-111 Aardvark.[67] GCAP officials stressed that this was still a concept model and therefore not representative of the finished design.[68]
During the Farnborough Airshow, GCAP officials highlighted that tens of thousands of people could be involved with GCAP over the programme's decades-long life and shared their belief that full-rate production for the aircraft would stretch beyond 2060. Herman Claesen of BAE Systems indicated that the current design philosophy for the aircraft is that it is not intended to have any designated full-operational capability (FOC) dates. Claesen explained that aircraft's open-architecture design simplifies upgrades throughout the aircraft's service life compared to legacy air systems.[68]
System of systems
As of 2024, GCAP is solely focused on the development of a sixth generation fighter aircraft, with the partner nations not having publicly stated their intention to cooperate on wider air combat developments under the system of systems approach taken by similar programmes like the European FCAS. As such, the development of wider assets, namely uncrewed systems has so far been a sovereign effort for each nation (e.g. UK's LANCA programme).
In mid-March 2024, during a press briefing, Leonardo's CEO Roberto Cingolani criticised the UK for lack of transparency regarding the details for the procurement of the wider System of systems for GCAP that the crewed fighter component would contribute to and that there was still uncertainty regarding the manufacturing and development responsibilities of the various partner companies.[69]
In July 2024, during the Farnborough Airshow, Airbus had reportedly suggested that its Wingman Unmanned Adjunct (WUA) could be developed for GCAP with help from the programme's industrial partners. Airbus also stressed that this would not conflict with their existing efforts as a lead industrial partner for FCAS as the WUA is an entirely separate and self-funded effort.[70]
^"Archived copy". www.baesystems.com. Archived from the original on 6 June 2024. Retrieved 6 June 2024.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
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