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Drought is common in Turkey, especially in the south and center of the country, with 2021 being the driest in 2 decades.^[1] Droughts are forecast to occur more frequently due to climate change, and 2023 began with drought.^[2] Most water loss is due to poor irrigation. In 2022 the World Bank said that “without reform, a 10% fall in water supply in Turkey could reduce GDP by 6%”.^[3]^: 11

Climate

Weather patterns

Most of the climate of Turkey in the interior is a semi-arid climate and on the south and west coasts a Mediterranean climate which are characterized by summer drought. Turkey's climate is affected by the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), the Mediterranean Circulation Index,^[4] and the Southern Oscillation Index.^[5]

Climate change

Due to climate change, extreme droughts and water scarcity are predicted to increase,^[6] for example in Ankara Province.^[7]

Geography

Parts of the country are arid or becoming arid. Between 1931 and 2010 extreme drought occurred in 3% of the country, severe drought in 4% and moderate drought in 7%.^[8] The lowest precipitation in Turkey is around Lake Tuz^[9] at around 35 cm per year.^[10]

Major droughts

A severe drought coincided with the collapse of the Hittte Empire around 1198–1196 BC.^[11] And more recently in 1804, 1876, 1928,^[12] and often since the 1970s.^[13]

Recent severe droughts

2007–2008

Between December 2006 and December 2008 there was significantly less winter and autumn precipitation. Hydrological, agricultural and socioeconomic droughts developed due to the meteorological drought. Loss of agricultural products, insufficiency of above ground and underground water, insufficiency and cuts in drinking water in big cities such as Ankara and Istanbul were observed. The drought mostly affected the Aegean, Marmara, Mediterranean and Central Anatolia regions. Drinking water was supplied from the Kızılırmak River to Ankara and from Melen Stream to Istanbul.^[13]

2013–2014

The 2012 Eastern and Central Anatolia drought combined with the summer drought of the Mediterranean Climate, was experienced as a moderate and severe drought in most of the country in 2013. The total amount of precipitation between 1 October 2013 and 17 January 2014 was about half of the same period in the previous year and 37% below the long-term average.^[13]

2020–2021

Precipitation was below average from mid-2019, and particularly the second half of 2020, and the drought mainly impacted agriculture in Turkey,^[14] because big city reservoirs received rain before they ran out.^[15]

Desertification risk

More than 60% (51.5 mil. ha) of environmentally sensitive areas are fragile and critical.^[16] Shrinking lakes may be due to reduced precipitation being part of climate change, and increased water use by agriculture.^[17]

Agriculture

Grain in Konya Province is affected^[18] Almost three-quarters of the water supply is used for irrigation^[19] and most water loss is due to poor irrigation,^[20] and more widespread use of drip irrigation has been suggested.^[13]

Water resources

There are about 1500 cubic meters per person per year.^[19] Based to the Falkenmark Index, Turkey is ‘water stressed’ since it has 1,000-1,500 m³ of water potential per person per year.^[21] Precipitation can be measured by satellite.^[22]

Other uses of water

Hydroelectricity in Turkey is reduced by climate change.^[23] According to the Water Policy Association half of water intended for taps is lost to leaks.^[24] According to TEMA 4 million tons a day are consumed for coal mining.^[25] The 2023 drought caused power cuts and increased electricity and gas prices.^[26]

Officially sanctioned methods to combat drought include better protecting river basins,^[27] building underground dams,^[28] rainwater harvesting, use of grey water^[29] and praying for rain.^[30]